Iman Rousta; Ebrahim Hadian; Ali Hussein Samadi; Parviz Rostamzadeh
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the optimal monetary and fiscal policies with emphasis on a non-inflationary exit from economic stagnation in Iran. In the first stage, Iran’s economy has been modeled in the form of a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model (NK-DSGE). ...
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The purpose of this paper is to investigate the optimal monetary and fiscal policies with emphasis on a non-inflationary exit from economic stagnation in Iran. In the first stage, Iran’s economy has been modeled in the form of a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model (NK-DSGE). After modeling and extracting the system of equations, the structural parameters of the model have been estimated by using seasonal data from 1989 to 2016 and also the Bayesian approach. The results show that monetary and fiscal expansionary policies increase production though they are associated with inflation. In the second stage, the optimal monetary and fiscal rules have been extracted from a social loss function, and accordingly the conditions of a non-inflationary exit from stagnation have been investigated. The results of the simulation show that the optimal monetary policy cannot by itself lead to the exit of the economy from stagnation without inflation. However, if this policy is applied along with an optimal fiscal policy, a non-inflationary exit from economic stagnation can be achieved.
Somayeh Jafari; Rasul Bakhshi Dastjerdi; Reza Moosavi Mohseni
Abstract
This paper estimates the effects of increase in Iran’s non-oil exports on its economic growth as well as sectoral outputs, using a single country, comparative static, exogenous policy Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. The paper also investigates the share of tradable sectors in reaching ...
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This paper estimates the effects of increase in Iran’s non-oil exports on its economic growth as well as sectoral outputs, using a single country, comparative static, exogenous policy Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. The paper also investigates the share of tradable sectors in reaching to the targeted growth rate (8%) in 5th socio-economic development plan. For this purpose, the parameters of the model are calibrated based on Iran’s Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) which carries a snapshot of the Iran’s economy. The model is then used to simulate the impact of increasing the exports uniformly across all sectors by 10, 20, and 30 percent on endogenous variables, including sectoral outputs, and GDP. Results suggest that 2.03% of targeted economic growth rate would be achieved by encouraging a 6% growth in exports. Our founding also indicates that industry and mine sector in Iran, would have more influence on growth than other non-oil sectors.