Energy Economics
Seyyed Mohammad Reza Aghaei Marzebali; Abdollah Arasteh
Abstract
Many nations’ quick development and progress during the last century may be directly attributed to the widespread use of fossil fuels. Particularly, oil has stood out as a defining feature of human civilization. However, the increasing use of fossil fuels like oil and coal has led to serious problems ...
Read More
Many nations’ quick development and progress during the last century may be directly attributed to the widespread use of fossil fuels. Particularly, oil has stood out as a defining feature of human civilization. However, the increasing use of fossil fuels like oil and coal has led to serious problems for the world’s ecosystems, national security, and economic prosperity. This article uses actual options to determine the best time to invest in renewable energy based on diesel price volatility, electricity price volatility, and oil consumption externalities. Different actual choice approaches for discretion assessment are addressed and compared, as well as the usage of devolution for decision making. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations are used to compare these techniques to conventional approaches. The findings show that investments in renewable energy have a positive net present value. The timelessness of investing choices is emphasized by the real options method. Under the present energy system in Iran, switching to renewable energy sources is preferable than maintaining reliance on oil to provide power. Switching to renewable energy sources can help Iran reduce its reliance on oil and promote sustainable economic growth. Furthermore, can help to address the negative externalities associated with fossil fuel use, such as air pollution and climate change. Therefore, it is essential to continue to evaluate and promote the development of renewable energy sources in Iran and around the world. By increasing the cost of using oil or reducing the cost of electricity, policies should encourage investment in renewable energy sources.
Malihe Eskandary; Mohammad Taghi Taghavifard; Iman Raeesi Vanani; Soroush Ghazi Noori
Abstract
The restrictions of government resources and the recent alterations in the economy have prompted government agencies to employ the capacities of private sector in all infrastructures. In this regard, a variety of financing methods, including the participatory models, have been applied for many years ...
Read More
The restrictions of government resources and the recent alterations in the economy have prompted government agencies to employ the capacities of private sector in all infrastructures. In this regard, a variety of financing methods, including the participatory models, have been applied for many years in the water and wastewater industry of Iran. The aim of this study is to identify and prioritize the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) indicators in the water and wastewater industry of Iran via machine learning techniques. To this end, after collecting, preparing and preprocessing the data, weighted indexing techniques including information gain and Gini index were utilized to prioritize the PPP factors. The results indicated that 93% of the indicators were effective in predicting the success of the projects. To compare the two methods, the precision of Naïve Bayes and Random Forest classifiers were taken into account and the information gain method yielded more reasonable findings with one percent difference. The evaluation of indicators elucidated that "complaints about service quality," "contract type," and "Conventional tariffs" revealed a huge impact on the success of collaborative projects. Among the 15 indicators, eight were directly pertinent to the project financing which is the main concern in this industry.
Mansour Mahinizadeh; Kazem Yavari; Hassan Valibeigi; Ali Shafiei
Abstract
Nowadays, banks are considered as one of the major components of the financial system of a country and any deficits and malfunction in the banking system will negatively affect the performance of the real sector. Therefore, there is a need for more investigation on the behavior of banks and factors affecting ...
Read More
Nowadays, banks are considered as one of the major components of the financial system of a country and any deficits and malfunction in the banking system will negatively affect the performance of the real sector. Therefore, there is a need for more investigation on the behavior of banks and factors affecting those behaviors in a country. One of the issues that affect the behavior of banks is symmetric information. Thus, the main aim of the present study was to investigate the impact of asymmetric information in the money markets on investment, production, and employment. Hence, based on the New-Keynesian framework, a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model was adopted in accordance with the structure of the economy of Iran. The designed model entailed nine sectors including households, firms, banks, the Central Bank, oil, the government, exports, imports, and other countries of the world. Moreover, the rigidities of the prices and wages, and the rigidities of the imported and exported goods were taken into account in the model. By using the Bayesian method and data gathered from Iran during 1974-2017, the parameters of equations were estimated and the impact of symmetric information was investigated. The results indicated that increasing the asymmetric information and reducing the honesty in the society through decreasing the resources available to the banks and increasing the cost of banks will lead to an increase in the profit of the facilities. Also, increasing the profit of banks concessional loans decreases investment, production, and employment.
Pardisolssadat Seyedmashhadi; Seyed Abdolmajid Jalaee Esfand Abadi; Mehdi Nejati; Mohsen Zayandehroodi
Abstract
the present paper evaluates the effect of investment risk spillover on key economic indicators using a CGE model and the GTAP.9 database have been used for this purpose. Two scenarios of 10% and 3% increase in investment risk are considered in order to investigate the effect of these changes according ...
Read More
the present paper evaluates the effect of investment risk spillover on key economic indicators using a CGE model and the GTAP.9 database have been used for this purpose. Two scenarios of 10% and 3% increase in investment risk are considered in order to investigate the effect of these changes according to a recent trend analysis of economic indicators in Iran and the trend of the Iranian economy towards globalization and opening of the economy windows. The results show that both scenarios reduce investment risk, inflation, gross domestic product and total investment. Government expenditures are reduced in all sectors of the economy except for the service sector, which is almost unchanged. The exports are increased in all sectors and the imports are declined in sectors of agriculture, industry and services. As well as, the results show that the import of the oil and gas sector has not been heavily influenced by the investment risk due to its governmental status. By assessing these two scenarios and the sensitivity of the macroeconomic indicators to the degree of risk change, it can be stated that the key economic indicators will be significantly improved by managing the risk of investment.