original manuscript
Macroeconomics
Ali Hojati; Mohammad Hossein Rahmati
Abstract
There is a vast line of research in misallocation like Hsieh and Klenow (2009), which see its roots in policy distortions. However, papers like Bill, Klenow, and Ruane(2020) argued differences in measured average products might reflect misspecification instead of actual marginal products. By focusing ...
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There is a vast line of research in misallocation like Hsieh and Klenow (2009), which see its roots in policy distortions. However, papers like Bill, Klenow, and Ruane(2020) argued differences in measured average products might reflect misspecification instead of actual marginal products. By focusing on the Indian and Chinese manufacturing sectors, this paper shows that these results are sensitive to the parameters of the factor accumulation and the production function. Notably, the optimal dispersion depends on the parametrization, so one can't address the misallocation without a country-specific calibration of the model, we observe that the Hsieh and Klenow (2009) results are highly dependent on the measurement of the elasticity of substitution and capital share in production. Therefore, the assumption of the same parameters for all three countries could misguide us to a wrong measurement of the actual effects of misallocation. So we need to focus on the estimation of production function before any calculation on misallocation.
Research Paper
Social Economic
Sajjad Barkhordari
Abstract
Nowadays, the study of unemployment properties is particularly important as a result of the increase of this variable in recent years. This paper tests the hysteresis hypothesis in youth unemployment at the urban, rural, regional, and general level by using quarterly data in period 2000- 2018. In addition, ...
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Nowadays, the study of unemployment properties is particularly important as a result of the increase of this variable in recent years. This paper tests the hysteresis hypothesis in youth unemployment at the urban, rural, regional, and general level by using quarterly data in period 2000- 2018. In addition, this paper investigates the stochastic nature of unemployment for thirty regions of Iran. We first employ the ADF and KPSS methods to test the hysteresis hypothesis at the urban, rural and general levels. Second, we apply the IPS, Chio and Fisher methods to examine this test for thirty regions using quarterly data in the period 2005-2018. Finally, the PANIC method is applied to identify the common and idiosyncratic components of unemployment rates at the regional level. The findings of different methods give support to the existence of hysteresis for the youth unemployment at the urban, rural and general level. Also, our empirical findings provide that the evidence is favorable to the existence of hysteresis in some regions. These results implicate supply side policies are effective to reduce youth unemployment at different levels. Also, our empirical findings provide that the evidence is favorable to the existence of hysteresis in some regions. These results implicate supply side policies are effective to reduce youth unemployment at different levels.
Research Paper
International Economics
Faranak Miraali; Saied Isazadeh; Seyed Ehsan Hosseinidoust
Abstract
Foreign direct investment (FDI) is considered as an inseparable features of an open and influential global economic system and a key factor for growth and development between countries. Due to having huge amount of oil and gas resources as well as relatively large markets, Iran has a great potential ...
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Foreign direct investment (FDI) is considered as an inseparable features of an open and influential global economic system and a key factor for growth and development between countries. Due to having huge amount of oil and gas resources as well as relatively large markets, Iran has a great potential for attracting FDI far more than its performance. However, various sanctions imposed on the country in recent years has led to a decrease in FDI by creating a hostile psychological environment and high risk for economic activities. In this paper, we are going to examine the widespread impacts of economic sanctions imposed by the US on the FDI of Iran between 1980 and 2020 through a model called the synthetic control (SCM). Through SCM we estimate the difference in FDI between the treated country (Iran) and the counterfactual (Synthetic Iran). The results show that the sanctions leads to almost 12 billion $ reduction in the FDI compared to the no-sanctions situation. Following the escalation of sanctions under the Trump administration and the withdrawal of the US from the JCPOA, the adverse effects of declining FDI peaked at 20 billion $ in 2020.The placebo tests also show that the there are statistical significance in findings (at the 10%
Research Paper
Public Economics
Ebrahim Rezaei
Abstract
Assessing the recent decade’s literature outlines that, advanced economies mainly employed temporary tax incentives to spur economic activities after 2007-2008 economic crisis whereas developing countries use broadly them as a normal as well as a permanent fiscal policy to intrigue economy. Among ...
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Assessing the recent decade’s literature outlines that, advanced economies mainly employed temporary tax incentives to spur economic activities after 2007-2008 economic crisis whereas developing countries use broadly them as a normal as well as a permanent fiscal policy to intrigue economy. Among latter group, Iran’s fiscal authorities have been using quite an extensive diversity of tax incentives to boost real sector variables such as investment, capital accumulation and output for a long-term period. The methodology is based on the simulating a partial as well as a general equilibrium model. Benefiting from a New Keynesian general equilibrium (NKGE) model, in this research, the comprehensive effects of tax allowances, accelerated depreciation, and tax reduction on the macroeconomic variables (investment, capital, output and consumption) and fiscal measures (government revenues and the present value of the government revenue) have been evaluated. Our findings reveal that, based on the assumption of flexible wages and prices, running tax incentives policy would culminate to considerable budget deficit followed by an unsustainable fiscal stance in the economy. However, imposing nominal rigidities by their special mechanisms brings about positive effects of tax incentives and relatively fiscal sustainability. In other words, introducing rigidities in wages and prices causes positive reactions of mentioned macro and fiscal variables.
Research Paper
Public Economics
Ramin Amani; Saman Ghaderi; Khaled Ahmadzadeh
Abstract
Covid-19 has affected the world’s economy since 2019. The coronavirus pandemic is one of the most severe and dangerous problems that humanity has faced in the last century. Therefore, this paper aims to investigate the impact of Covid-19 on the inflation rate in the 36 OECD member countries. Monthly ...
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Covid-19 has affected the world’s economy since 2019. The coronavirus pandemic is one of the most severe and dangerous problems that humanity has faced in the last century. Therefore, this paper aims to investigate the impact of Covid-19 on the inflation rate in the 36 OECD member countries. Monthly data on Covid-19 and the inflation rate from February 2020 to August 2021 and the quantile panel regression method have been used to achieve this purpose. The results show that new cases of Covid-19 decrease the inflation rate in all quantiles, which means that by increasing the number of Covid-19 cases, economic activities decrease because of the business restrictions. Moreover, the new deaths of Covid-19 have a dual impact on the inflation rate in OECD countries. With increasing in Covid-19 deaths, business restrictions have increased, the economy has entered a recession, and inflation has decreased. On the other hand, the growth of Covid-19 casualties could increase economic uncertainty and inflation. Furthermore, Covid-19 vaccinations have positive and significant effects on the inflation rate in OECD countries. Accordingly, policymakers are advised to include increasing vaccine injections, especially booster doses, to increase economic activity and prosperity in OECD and world economies. Furthermore, Covid-19 showed the necessity of preparing the world against infectious diseases in the future.
Research Paper
Monetary economics
Roozbeh Balounejad Nouri; Amir Ali Farhang
Abstract
the relationship between oil revenue, exchange rate, and M2 on the CPI and PPI, over time of 2005:1-2022:1, was investigated in Iran with QARDL method used. The results showed that, in the short run, all the variables had an asymmetric effect on the CPI and the PPI. oil revenues, in the long run, from ...
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the relationship between oil revenue, exchange rate, and M2 on the CPI and PPI, over time of 2005:1-2022:1, was investigated in Iran with QARDL method used. The results showed that, in the short run, all the variables had an asymmetric effect on the CPI and the PPI. oil revenues, in the long run, from the quantile of 0.05 to the median, the impact of the variable on the inflation would be increased, and then its impact would be decreased. also, in the long run, the effect of the increase on the PPI is greater than the consumer price index. In the long run, the effect of exchange rates on the CPI and the PPI was nonlinear while being symmetric. because from the quantile of 0.2 to 0.8, its effect proportionally increased and then decreased. also, regarding the M2, the results showed that this variable on the CPI and the PPI had an asymmetric effect, in the short run. in this way, from the middle quantile to the quantile of 0.9, its effect was positive and significant, and in the long run, the results confirmed its positive effect on inflation in all quantiles; although, its effect on the PPI was asymmetric.
Research Paper
Other
Saleh Sedighi Shiraz; Samad Aali; Rasoul Vazifeh; Alireza Bafandeh Zendeh
Abstract
Appropriate and rational evaluation is considered as a fundamental issue of today's organizations with multiple branches, especially about banks. In the meantime, utilizing a proper model of marketing performance evaluation at the bank’s branch level will bring consequences such as increasing the ...
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Appropriate and rational evaluation is considered as a fundamental issue of today's organizations with multiple branches, especially about banks. In the meantime, utilizing a proper model of marketing performance evaluation at the bank’s branch level will bring consequences such as increasing the accountability, services quality improvement, increasing customer satisfaction and loyalty, and finally, the bank profitability. Therefore, the current research was conducted with the aim of designing and explaining a comprehensive model of marketing performance evaluation for the bank branches with the qualitative approach of the grounded theory. Considering the criterion of theoretical saturation, judgmental sampling was used to select 20 people who were interviewed. Based on the findings of the research, the provision of banking services at a certain level of quality by the bank's employees and management affects the marketing performance of the branch over time. Also, the findings showed that factors such as organizational culture, as well as local market conditions and macroeconomic factors, extra-branch rules and regulations, and the severe fluctuation of the local market, manifest themselves in customer relationship management, human capital management, and continuous improvement and finally, the consequence of such management is gaining customer loyalty, creating a successful brand and the bank profitability.
Research Paper
Macroeconomics
Ali Akbar Jafarizadeh Malmiri; Gholmreza Askarzadeh; Hamid Khajeh Mahmoodabadi; Yahya Abtahi
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to investigate the effectiveness of ETF funds on Iran's stock market. The index investigated in this research is the degree of fragility of the stock market in Iran. For this purpose, a model has been used at first, which shows how much the entry of an ETF market fund can ...
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The purpose of this study is to investigate the effectiveness of ETF funds on Iran's stock market. The index investigated in this research is the degree of fragility of the stock market in Iran. For this purpose, a model has been used at first, which shows how much the entry of an ETF market fund can affect the stability and fragility of the stock market. Then, in order to analyze the issue, a series of ETF funds in Iran has been selected. We used price data of 21 different stocks included in ETF funds and the price of related ETF from 30-Jan 2022 till 28-Dec 2022. Using OLS regression analysis, the results and analysis give a pattern that with the entry of ETF funds, the nonsystematic value has increased values. Therefore, we conclude that the entry of ETF funds into the market increases the fragility in the Iranian stock market.
Research Paper
Public Economics
Naser Olfati; Mahbubeh Delfan; Mohamad Alizadeh; Sohrab Delangizan
Abstract
the purpose of this study is to investigate the effects and consequences of financial policy instruments on macroeconomic variables according to their usage .in order to provide a comprehensive analysis of the above - mentioned works , a dynamic open dynamic general equilibrium model with respect to ...
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the purpose of this study is to investigate the effects and consequences of financial policy instruments on macroeconomic variables according to their usage .in order to provide a comprehensive analysis of the above - mentioned works , a dynamic open dynamic general equilibrium model with respect to the household , agency , government , and central bank is designed to fit the characteristics of iranian economy in which households are considered as two categories : Ricardo and nonRicardo .in the financial sector , government expenditures have been divided into three parts : cost of goods , public goods and construction costs and also government tax revenues as financial instruments are divided into three categories : tax rate tax rate , tax rate and tax rate on capital .the structural parameters of the model were estimated using seasonal data of 1399 - 1383 .the results of the model simulation show that the increase of a tax rate in order to finance government expenditures depends on the nature of government spending ( current or construction ) and the goal of nonpolitician so that if the goal is to provide the current expenditure and the government is willing to reduce the consumption and production costs , then it is necessary to increase the rate of tax on consumption or the rate of tax on investment .
Research Paper
Energy Economics
Elham Gholampour; Teymour Mohammadi; Asghar Abolhasani hastiani; Mohsen Mehrara
Abstract
This paper primarily focuses on the global macroeconomic consequence, which are the result of country-specific oil supply shocks using the GVAR-Oil model estimated for 27 countries/regions over the 1979Q2-2019Q4 period. Not only does this approach include how shocks affect directly exposed countries ...
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This paper primarily focuses on the global macroeconomic consequence, which are the result of country-specific oil supply shocks using the GVAR-Oil model estimated for 27 countries/regions over the 1979Q2-2019Q4 period. Not only does this approach include how shocks affect directly exposed countries but it also indicates the indirect results of shocks thanks to secondary or tertiary channels. Given the importance of Saudi Arabia and Iran in the world’s oil supply, adopting this model facilitates the way in which oil supply shocks are examined in the country-specific context. Therefore, the results indicate different disruptions depending on which country is subject to the shock. In fact, this study shows that a negative shock to oil supply in Iran has relatively insignificant effects on the global economy compared with those of Saudi Arabia since it can be neutralized by the increase in Saudi Arabia oil production. A negative shock to the oil supply in Saudi Arabia, however, results in an increase in oil prices, which adversely affects GDP and financial market in general. In addition, this approach provides policymakers with more opportunities to cope with consequences, which are the result of Covid-19, sanctions, and war, for instance, in a wider range of countries as representatives of the global economy, and thus help them to make better strategic decisions.
Research Paper
International Economics
Mahdi Hemmati; Ebrahim Hadian; Ali Hussein Samadi; Ahmad Sadraei Javaheri
Abstract
Exchange rate misalignment has involved many world countries. It has profoundly affected the internal and external sectors of the economy. Hence, disclosing the emergence and formation causes of the misalignments is a requisite. Studies on the Iranian economy have mostly evaluated the sanctions’ ...
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Exchange rate misalignment has involved many world countries. It has profoundly affected the internal and external sectors of the economy. Hence, disclosing the emergence and formation causes of the misalignments is a requisite. Studies on the Iranian economy have mostly evaluated the sanctions’ efficacy on macroeconomic variables, involving the economic growth, domestic production, liquidity, exports, imports, oil price, oil revenues, etc. Few studies have evaluated the sanctions’ impact on the foreign exchange market. There is no research work assessing the sanctions’ impact on exchange rate misalignment in Iran. The main purpose of this paper is to estimate the impact of economic sanctions on real effective exchange rate (REER) misalignment in the context of the Iranian economy during the period 1996:1 - 2019:4. In doing so, at first we apply the model designed by Edwards (1989) and Cottani et al. (1990) and using smooth transition regression (STR) to estimate the REER equilibrium and its misalignment. Moreover, factor analysis is used to estimate the sanction indices. Then to analyze the impact of economic sanctions on the REER misalignment a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model is employed.The time path of estimated REER misalignment indicates a lot of volatilities during the period of study. The estimated results also show that sanctions significantly affect these volatilities in the short run and long run and thereby increase REER disequilibrium in the Iranian economy.
Research Paper
International Economics
Zahra Aghili; Reza Akbarian; Ahmad Sadraei Javaheri; parviz Rostamzadeh
Abstract
In recent years, given the significance of the financial sector and its interdependence with other sectors, especially the international trade sector, this industry’s academics and planners have examined the impact of financial development on commerce and trade integration. Therefore, in the present ...
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In recent years, given the significance of the financial sector and its interdependence with other sectors, especially the international trade sector, this industry’s academics and planners have examined the impact of financial development on commerce and trade integration. Therefore, in the present study, using the data of 12 selected countries that are members of the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO), Eurasia, and D8 during the period 1996-2020, and utilizing the augmented gravity model, the effect of a variety of financial tools, such as financial liberalization (FL) and open market operation (OMO), was discussed as a financial development to create trade integration between Iran and the selected countries. The results reveal that the index of financial liberalization has a positive and statistically significant impact on the degree of trade integration of the examined countries. In addition, the elasticity of trade integration is +0.01 than the OMO index. Another independent variable that has a positive effect on trade integration degree is economic size. Income convergence, population, the real exchange rate, and geographical distance have negative significant effects on trade integration in the countries under study. In order to establish the development plans of trade and financial sectors, the findings of this study may be of interest to policymakers and planners in ECO, Eurasia, and D8 nations, especially Iran; because the formation, growth, and strengthening of regional arrangements can offer a foundation for the entry of the region’s countries into the global economy and shield them from globalization’s challenges.
