ORIGINAL_ARTICLE
A New Nonlinear Specification of Structural Breaks for Money Demand in Iran
In a structural time series regression model, binary variables have been used to quantify qualitative or categorical quantitative events such as politic and economic structural breaks, regions, age groups and etc. The use of the binary dummy variables is not reasonable because the effect of an event decreases (increases) gradually over time not at once. The simple and basic idea in this paper is to involve a new transition function in a structural time series regression equation model in order to transform the binary dummy variables into a fuzzy set. The main purpose of this paper is to present a new method for endogenous modeling structural breaks in money demand function using fuzzy set. Hence, we model structural breaks in a money demand function via fuzzy set theory, transition functions and binary dummy variables and compare these. After introducing a new transition function, we model money volume shock in 1992 in money demand function. The results indicate that our transition function has better characteristics and accurate results than the binary dummy variable, exponential and logistic transition functions.
http://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_3109_686af06fe3079d02c2f52759ad831319.pdf
2014-05-05T11:23:20
2018-04-26T11:23:20
1
19
10.22099/ijes.2014.3109
Dummy Variable
Fuzzy Set
Structural Break
AS Membership Function
Money Demand
Iran
Esmaiel
Abounoori
e.abounoories@profs.semnan.ac.ir
true
1
LEAD_AUTHOR
Behnam
Shahriyar
shahriarbehnam@gmail.com
true
2
AUTHOR
Abounouri, E. & Shahriyar, B. (2013). Modelling of Lucas Critique using Fuzzy Set Approach. Journal of Economic Research, Tehran University, 49(2), 229-265.
1
Abounouri, E. & Shahriyar, B. (2014). Nonlinear Modelling of Structural Breaks concerning Money Demand Function in Iran using Fuzzy Approach. the Economic Research, Tarbiat Modares University, 13(4), 55-78.
2
Baliamoune, M. (2000). Economics of Summitry: an Empirical Assessment of the Economic Effect of Summits. 27, 295-314.
3
Black, M. (1973). an Exercise in Logical Analysis. 4 (4), 427-455.
4
Bolotin, A. (2004). Replacing Indicator Variables by Fuzzy Membership Functions in Statistical Regression Models: Examples of Epidemiological Studies. Biological and Medical Data Analysis , 3337, 251 - 258.
5
Giovanis, E. (2009). Bootstrapping Fuzzy-GARCH Regressions on the Day of the Week Effect in Stock Returns: Applications in MATLAB. Working Paper.
6
Granger, C. J., & Teräsvirta, T. (1994). The Combination of Forecasts Using Changing Weights. International Journal of Forecasting , 10, 47-57.
7
Granger, C., & Teräsvirta, T. (1993). Modeling Nonlinear Economic Relationships. London: Oxford University Press.
8
Perron, P. (1989). The great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis. 57, 1361-1401.
9
Selmins, A. (1987). Least Squares Model Fitting To Fuzzy Vector Data. Fuzzy Sets and Systems , 8, 903-908.
10
Sivanandam, S., Sumathi, S., & Deepa, S. (2007). Introduction to Fuzzy Logic using MATLAB. New York: Springer.
11
Tanaka, H., Uejima, S., & Asai, K. (1982). Linear Regression Analysis With Fuzzy Model. IEEE Transactions on SMC , 12, 903-907.
12
Teräsvirta, T. (1994). Specification, Estimation and Evaluation of Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models. Journal of the American Statistical Association , 89, 208-218.
13
Teräsvirta, T. (1994). Testing Linearity and Modelling Nonlinear Time Series. Kybernetika , 30 (3), 319-330.
14
Zadeh, L. (1968). Fuzzy Algorithms. Information and Control , 12, 94–102.
15
Zadeh, L. (1996). Fuzzy Logic = Computing with Words. IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems , 4 (2), 103-111.
16
Zadeh, L. (1988). Fuzzy Logic. IEEE Computer Magazine , 21 (4), 177-186.
17
Zadeh, L. (1965). Fuzzy Sets. Information and Control , 8 (3), 338–353.
18
Zadeh, L. (1978). Fuzzy Sets as a Basis for a Theory of Possibility. Fuzzy Sets and Systems , 1, 3-28.
19
ORIGINAL_ARTICLE
The Effects of the Structural Variables of the Iranian Industries on the Social Cost: The SCP Approach
This paper studies the effects of the structural variables of the Iranian industries sector on the welfare cost using to the Structure-Conduct-Performance (SCP) theory. In other words, we investigate the role of structural components and their effects on the size of the welfare cost in Iran's industry sector. We have used the Leibenstein's model to calculate the deadweight loss and then the panel data model has been used to quantify the model. Leibenstein believed that in many cases the monopolistic industries operate inefficiently due to being on the margin of safety. So in addition to the welfare triangle, the costs of the inefficiency of monopolistic industries should be also considered as the welfare cost. Our results demonstrate that there is a direct relationship between the welfare cost and all of the parameters of the model (barriers to entry, market concentration, economies of scale, state ownership share and firm size).
http://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_3110_cb3cfcaa36b0c88bdfbd3e23991f5cd4.pdf
2014-05-05T11:23:20
2018-04-26T11:23:20
21
42
10.22099/ijes.2014.3110
Leibenstein model
Inefficiency
Social Cost
SCP Approach
Mohammad Nabi
Shahiki Tash
mohammad_tash@eco.usb.ac.ir
true
1
AUTHOR
Forough
Jahantigh
f_jahantigh@yahoo.com
true
2
LEAD_AUTHOR
Ashraf-zadeh, H. & Mehregan, M. (2008). Econometrics of Panel Data. Tehran University, Tehran.
1
Baltagi, Badi. (2005). Econometrics analysis of panel data. New York: John Wiley& Sons Ltd.
2
Berger, A. N. & Mester, L. J. (1997). Efficiency and productivity change in the U.S. commercial banking industry: A comparison of the 1980s and 1990s. No 97-5, Working Papers from Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
3
Harberger, A. C. (1954). Monopoly and resource allocation. The American Economic Review, 44(2), 77-87.
4
Hausman, Jerry A. (1978). Specification test in econometrics. Econometrica, 46(6), 1251-1271.
5
Haddad K, G. R. & Sadegh M. (2012). Dual Job Holding in the Iran’s Urban Labor Market: An application of panel data and dual sample selection. Economic Research Journal, 47(3), 85-108.
6
Johnston, J. & Dinardo, J. (1997). Econometric methods. 4th Edition. New Jersey: MacGraw-Hill.
7
Khodadad Kashi, F. (2007). Economic of scale in Iranian economy:
8
manufacturing sector. Economic Research, (80), 1-18.
9
Khalilzadeh, Shirazi, J. (1974). Market structure and price-cost margins in U.K. Manufacturing Industries. Review of Economics and Statistics, 56(1), 67-76.
10
Khodadad K, F. (2009). Competition and concentration in manufacturing sector during first socioeconomic and cultural development plan of Iran. Iranian Economic Review, 12(2), 127-141.
11
Leibenstein, H. (1966). Allocative efficiency vs. "x-efficiency". The American Economic Review, 56(3), 392-415.
12
Leibenstein, H. & Comanor, W. S. (1969). Allocative efficiency, x-efficiency and the measurement of welfare losses. Economica, New Series, 36(143), 304-309.
13
Posner, R, A.(1975). The social costs of monopoly and regulation. The Journal of Political Economy, 83(4), 807-828.
14
Sadraei Javaheri, A., Zabihidan, M. S. & Balaghi, A. (2011). An investigation on the effects of advertising and industrial concentration on profitability in Iranian food products and beverages. Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economic, 5(3), 193-208.
15
Shahiki Tash. M. N. & Nasiri Aghdam, A. (2011). Concentration, barrier to entry and economies of scale in the Water Air conditioner Industry in Iran and evaluation of social welfare cost. Quarterly Journal of Economics Review, 8(1(28)), 73-98.
16
Shahiki Tash, M. N. & Foyouzi Ekhtiari, N. (2009). Estimation of social cost of monopoly in insurance industry: A case study of Iran, Iranian Economic Research, 13(38), 133-155.
17
ORIGINAL_ARTICLE
An Estimation of Laffer Curve in Iran: A Non-Linear Approach
Laffer curve indicates relationship between tax rate and tax income. The aim of this paper is estimating of laffer curve in Iranian economy. To do so, we have used threshold regression method. Empirical results indicate that since the tax rate is low (the threshold value is less than 0.0848) in two-regime model, tax rate and tax income have a significant positive relationship, but when the tax rate is high (the threshold value is larger than 0.0848), tax rate and tax income have a significant negative relationship.
http://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_3111_cb589e07d2132b8d10542fb012fd3b6d.pdf
2014-05-05T11:23:20
2018-04-26T11:23:20
43
59
10.22099/ijes.2014.3111
Laffer curve
Threshold Regression Approach
Iran
Haniyeh
Sedaghat Kalmarzi
sedaghat12h@yahoo.com
true
1
LEAD_AUTHOR
Mir Hosein
Mousavi
hmousavi_atu@yahoo.com
true
2
AUTHOR
Abounoori, E., & Nademi, Y. (2010). Government Size Threshold and Economic Growth in Iran. International Journal of Business and Development Studies, 2, 95-108.
1
Becsi, Z. (2012). The shifty Laffer curve. Economic Review, (Q3), 53-64.
2
Berman, E. P., & Milanes-Reyes, L. M. (2013). The Politicization of Knowledge Claims: The “Laffer Curve” in the US Congress. Qualitative sociology, 36(1), 53-79.
3
Burian, S., & Brčák, J. (2013). Relationship Between Capital Tax Rate and Tax Quota in Europe. International Advances in Economic Research, 1-2.
4
Busato, F., & Chiarini, B. (2013). Steady state Laffer curve with the underground economy. Public Finance Review.
5
Claessens, S. (1990). The debt laffer curve: Some estimates. World Development, 18(12), 1671-1677.
6
Colombatto, E. (2013). An alternative to the Laffer curve: Theory and consequences. The Review of Austrian Economics, 1-18.
7
Creedy, J., & Gemmell, N. (2014). Measuring Revenue-Maximising Elasticities of Taxable Income: Evidence for the US Income Tax.
8
Cung, N. H., Zhou, Q. S., & Liu, H. (2014, January). Determinants of Revenue of Personal Income Tax in Vietnam. In Proceedings of 2013 4th International Asia Conference on Industrial Engineering and Management Innovation (IEMI2013) (pp. 267-277). Springer Berlin Heidelberg.
9
Dahlby, B., & Ferede, E. (2011). What does it cost society to raise a dollar of tax revenue? The marginal cost of public funds. The Marginal Cost of Public Funds (March 16, 2011). CD Howe Institute.
10
Feldstein, M. (1995) The Effect of Marginal Tax Rates on Taxable Income: A Panel Study of the 1986 Tax Reform Act. Journal of Political Economy 103, 551-572.
11
Fève, P., Matheron, J., & Sahuc, J. G. (2012). The Laffer Curve in an Incomplete-Markets Economy. TSE Working Paper, 12.
12
Francesco, Z. (2012). The Laffer Curve in a Frictional Labor Market. The BE Journal of Macroeconomics, 12(1), 1-23.
13
Goldsbee, A. (1999). Evidence on the High-Income LafferCurve from Six Decades of Tax Reform. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1-47.
14
Gross, D. (2012). Effects of Wealth Distribution In a Progressive Tax Model. Student Papers Complex Adaptive Systems, Fall 2012, 21.
15
Gruber, J. and E. Saez (2002). The Elasticity of Taxable Income: Evidence and Implications. Journal of Public Economics, 84, 1-32.
16
Hansen, B., (2000). Sample splitting and threshold estimation. Econometrica, 68: 575-603.
17
Hansen, B., (1996). Inference when a nuisance parameter is not identified under the null hypothesis, Econometrica, 64, 413-430.
18
Heijman, W. J. M., & Van Ophem, J. A. C. (2005). Willingness to pay tax: The Laffer curve revisited for 12 OECD countries. Journal of Socio-Economics, 34(5), 714-723.
19
Holter, H. A., Krueger, D., & Stepanchuk, S. (2014). How Does Tax Progressivity and Household Heterogeneity Affect Laffer Curves?. Available at SSRN.
20
Hsing, Y. (1996). Estimating the Laffer curve and policy implications. Journal of Socio-Economics, 25(3), 395-401.
21
Ihori, T., & Yang, C. C. (2012). Laffer paradox, Leviathan, and political contest. Public Choice, 151(1-2), 137-148.
22
Jafari Samimi, A., Nademi, Y., & Zobeiri, H. (2010). Government size & Economic Growth: A threshold regression approach in selected Islamic countries. Australian Journal of Basic and applied sciences.
23
Jafari Samimi, A., Nademi, Y., & Zobeiri, H. (2010). Tax Ratio Threshold and Economic Growth in Iran. Australian Journal of Basic and applied sciences.
24
Jafari Samimi, A., Zobeiri, H., Samani, H. A., & Nademi, Y. (2011). Inflation and Inflation Tax in Iran: A Threshold Regression'Laffer Curve'Model. Journal of Economics & Behavioral Studies, 3(3).
25
Jafari Samimi, A., Nademi, Y., Ghaderi, S., & Hosseinzadeh, R. (2012). Inflation and Inflation Tax in Developing Countries; A Panel Threshold Approach. International Journal of Academic Research in Economics and Management Sciences, 1(1).
26
Kuo, Y. T. (2012). The effect of the change of income tax on labor supply: A case of Taiwan labor market's Laffer curve.
27
Laffer, A. (2012). The Laffer Curve and the Failure of Stimulus Spending. Available at SSRN 2182070.
28
Laffer, A. (2004-06-01). "The LafferCurve, Past, Present and Future.". Heritage Foundation. Retrieved 2007-12-11.
29
Megersa, K. A. (2014). The laffer curve and the debt-growth link in low-income Sub-Saharan African economies. University Library of Munich, Germany.
30
Oliveira, F. G. D., & Costa, L. (2013). The VAT Laffer Curve and the Business Cycle (No. 02). Faculdade de Economia e Gestão, Universidade Católica Portuguesa (Porto).
31
Sillamaa, M.A. and M. Veal (2000). The Effects of Marginal Tax Rates on Taxable Income: A Panel Study of the 1988 Tax Flattening in Canada. Research Report no 354.
32
Trabandt, M. & Uhlig, H. (2009). How far are we from the slippery slope? The Laffer curve revisited (No. w15343). National Bureau of Economic Research.
33
Tsuchiya, Y. (2013). Simple analytics of the dynamic Laffer curve under alternative financing schemes: bridging the gap between fiscal stimuli and adjustments.
34
Tucker, I. (2010), Survey of Economics, Cengage Learning, p. 341
35
Usher, D. (2013). Two Sources of Bias in Estimating the Peak of the Laffer Curve (No. 1320).
36
ORIGINAL_ARTICLE
Methodological Shortcomings in Classical Mathematical Economics: A Critical Examination of the Contributions of Cournot, Jevons and Walras
This paper examines critically the contributions of Cournot, Jevons and Walras as the founders of classical mathematical economics from a methodological standpoint. Advances in different economic schools and doctrines in the 19th century produced an environment of multi-dimensionality in economic analysis which was regarded by the pioneers of classical mathematical economists as a chaotic state. We have demonstrated that the formation of this new discipline, known equivalently as pure or scientific economics, was a response to this so-called chaotic state. We have also shown that the erroneous logic of abstraction in the sense of reducing a multi-dimensional economic system to a one-dimensional mechanical framework as the methodological basis of classical mathematical economics has been the origin of serious shortcomings in mathematical treatment of economics. Based on the writings of Jevons and Walras we have provided evidences to support the claim that advances in Marxian economics can be considered as the prime motive in the development of classical mathematical economics.
http://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_3112_23c5c0a52e41d8375f4b985a872cf013.pdf
2014-05-05T11:23:20
2018-04-26T11:23:20
61
82
10.22099/ijes.2014.3112
Methodology of Mathematical Economics
Cournot
Jevons
Walras
Marx
Masoud
Derakhshan
derakhshan@atu.ac.ir
true
1
LEAD_AUTHOR
Civa, G. (1711). De renummaria quoad fieri potuit geometrice tractata, ad illustrissimos et excellentissimos dominos Praesidem Quaestoresque hujus arciducalis Caesaraej Magistratus Mantuae. 4to, 60 pp. (On money, treated mathematically as far as has been possible). Reprinted with editor's preface by E. Mase-Dari, as Un precursore della econometria, Il saggio di Giovanni Ceva 'De re numaria' edito in Mantova nel 1711. Moderna: Pubbicazioni della Facolta di. Giurisprudenza, 1935. French translation with translator’s introduction and notes by G.-H. Bousquet and J. Roussier, in Revue d’histoire economique et sociale, 1958, no. 2, 129-169. See also The New palgrave. A dictionary of economics, vol. 1, London: Macmillan, 1987, 397-398.
1
Cournot, A. (1838). Recherches sur les principles mathematiques de la theorie des richesses. Paris: Hachette. English translation by Nathaniel T. Bacon: Researches into the mathematical principles of the theory of wealth. New York: Macmillan, 1897, reprinted 1927, 213 pages.
2
Debreu, G. (1986). Theoretic models: Mathematical form and economic content. Econometrica, 54(6), 1259-1270.
3
Debreu, G. (1987). Mathematical economics, in the New palgrave. A dictionary of economics, vol. 3, London: Macmillan, 399-404.
4
Derakhshan, M. (2014). A critical analysis of the origin and nature of classical mathematical economics: Why classical economists did not use mathematics? International Journal of Business and Development Studies, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, 6(1), 5-20.
5
Fisher, I. (1891). Mathematical investigations in the theory of value and prices. New Haven: Yale University Press, 1925. Being the writer's thesis for the degree of Ph.D. in Yale University.
6
Gide, C., & Rist, C. (1909, 1948). A history of economic doctrines. Paris, 1909. Translated by R. Richards. 2nd English edition, London: George G. Harrap, 2nd edition, 1948.
7
Jevons, W. S. (1871). The theory of political economy. London: Macmillan, 267 pages. 2nd edition, 1879, 3rd edition, 1888 with Notes and extensions of the bibliography of mathematical economic writings by his wife Harriet A. Jevons. 4th edition by his son H. Stanley Jevons, 1911, 339 pages and further extension of the bibliography of mathematical economic writings.
8
Jevons, W. S. (1876). The future of political economy. Introductory lecture at the opening of the session 1876-1877 at University College, London, Faculty of Arts and Laws. Originally published in Fortnightly Review, November 1876. Reprinted in his Principles of economics, London: Macmillan, 1905, 187-206.
9
Jevons, W. S. (1905). The principles of economics, A fragment of a treatise on the industrial mechanism of society and other papers. Edited with a preface by Henry Higgs, London: Macmillan, 273 pages.
10
Marx, K. H. (1859). A contributions to the critique of political economy. English translation, London: Lawrence and Wishart, 1970.
11
Marx, K. H. (1858-59 or 1857-61). Grundrisse der kritik der politischen oekonomie. First published in 1939. English edition: Foundations of a critique of political economy. Harmondsworth: Penguin Books, 1972.
12
Marx, K. H. (1867). Capital: A critique of political economy. vol. 1. English Translation, Harmondsworth: Penguin Books, 1976.
13
Marx, K. H., & Engels, F. (1848). Manifesto of the communist party. English translation, Harmondsworth: Penguin Books, 1973.
14
Mill, J. S. (1848). Principles of political economy, with some of their applications to social philosophy. 4th edition, London: Parker and Sons, 1867. In two volumes edited by J. M. Robson, Collected works, vols. 2-3, University of Toronto Press, 1965.
15
Neumann, J. von, & Morgenstern, O. (1944). The theory of games and economic behavior. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
16
Ricardo, D. (1817). On the principles of political economy and taxation, London: John Murray, 442 pages. Reprinted in the Works and correspondence of David Ricardo. vol. 1, edited by Piero Sraffa with the collaboration of M. H. Dobb, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1951.
17
Smith, A. (1776). An inquiry into the nature and causes of the wealth of nations. Edited by R. H. Campbell and A. S. Skinner; Textual edition by W. B. Todd. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1976, volumes 1 and 2, 1080 pages.
18
Walras, L. (1874). Elements d'economie politique pure, ou theorie de la rishesse sociale. Lausanne: Imprimerie L. Corbaz. English translation by William Jaffe, Elements of pure economics, or The theory of social wealth. London: George Allen and Unwin, 1954, 620 pages.
19
ORIGINAL_ARTICLE
Intermediate Goods Trade and Macroeconomic Volatility: The Case of Iran-China Trade Relations
This paper tries to analyze the impacts of intermediate goods trade on production, consumption, investment, net exports, employment, labor wage and capital rent of Iran in its bilateral trade relations with China. This analysis has been done by modeling, solving and calibrating an international real business cycles (IRBC) model in period 1980-2009. The results show that when elasticity of substitution between domestic and imported intermediate goods is low, increasing the share of Iran’s imported intermediate goods from China increases volatility of Iran’s macroeconomic variables. The value of an increase in volatility of Iran’s macroeconomic variables depends on elasticity of substitution between domestic and imported intermediate goods, when the elasticity of substitution between domestic and imported intermediate goods is low, an increase in the share of Iran’s imported intermediate goods from China leads to a further increase in the volatility of macroeconomic variables. These results indicate that imports of intermediate goods are an important path through for transmission of shocks between main bilateral trade partners.
http://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_3113_1b1470eeb52d33cccf2fb9c59fbb237d.pdf
2014-05-05T11:23:20
2018-04-26T11:23:20
83
110
10.22099/ijes.2014.3113
Intermediate Goods
International Real Business Cycles
General Equilibrium Model
Calibration
Seyed Reza
Miraskari
rmiraskari@guilan.ac.ir
true
1
LEAD_AUTHOR
Seyed Komail
Tayebi
sk.tayebi@ase.ui.ac.ir
true
2
AUTHOR
Mohammad
Vaez Barzani
mo.vaez1340@gmail.com
true
3
AUTHOR
Amini, A,. & Neshat H. M. (2005). Estimation of Iran’s Capital Stock Time Series in Period 1959-2002. The Journal of Planning and Budgeting, No 90, pp 53-86.
1
Antràs, P. & Helpman. E. (2004). Global sourcing. Journal of Political Economics, 112(3), 552–580.
2
Backus, D., Kehoe, P., & Kydland, F. (1992). International real business cycles. The Journal of Political Economy, 100(4), 745–775.
3
Backus, D., Kehoe, P., & Kydland, F. (1994). Dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade: The J-curve? The American Economic Review, 84(1), 84–103.
4
Backus, D. K., P. J. Kehoe, and F. Kydland. (1995). “International Business Cycles: Theory vs. Evidence," in T. F. Cooley, ed., Frontiers of Business Cycle Research, Princeton University Press.
5
Baxter, M., & Kouparitsas, M.A. (2005). Determinants of business cycle comovement: a robust analysis. Journal of Monetary Economics, 52, 113-157.
6
Buch, C. M., Doepke, J. & Pierdzioch, C. (2005). Financial openness and business cycle volatility. Journal of International Money and Finance, 24(5), 744–765.
7
Burstein, A., Kurz, C., & Tesar, L. (2008). Trade, production sharing, and the international transmission of business cycle. Journal of Monetary Economics, 55, 775-795.
8
Canova, F. & Ubide. A. J. (1998). International Business Cycles, Financial Markets and Household Production. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 22, 545-572.
9
Clark, T.E., & van Wincoop, E. (2001). Borders and business cycles. Journal of International Economics, 55, 59-85.
10
di Giovanni, J., & Levchenko, A.A. (2010). Putting the parts together: trade, vertical linkages, and business cycle comovement. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 2, 95-124.
11
Drucker, P. (1977). The Rise of Production Sharing. Wall Street Journal. March 15.
12
Feenstra, R. C. (2004). Advanced International Trade: Theory and Evidence. Princeton University Press.Princeton.
13
Feenstra, R. C. & Taylor. A. M. (2012). International Economics. Second Edition. Worth Publishers.
14
Frankel, J.A., & Rose, A.K. (1998). The endogeneity of the optimum currency area criteria. Economic Journal, 108, 1009-1025.
15
Grossman, G. & Helpman. E. (1991). Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy. Cambridge. MIT Press.
16
Hummels, D., Ishi, J. & Yi, K. M. (2001).The Nature and Growth of Vertical Specialization in World Trade. Journal of International Economics, 54, 75-96.
17
Humphrey, J. and H. Schmitz, Hubert. (2002). How Does Insertion in Global Value Chains Affect Upgrading in Industrial Clusters?. Regional Studies, 36 (9), 1017-27.
18
Johnson, R. & Noguera. G. (2012). Accounting for Intermediates: Production Sharing and Trade in Value Added. Journal of International Economics, 86, 224-236.
19
Karras, G. & Song, F. (1996). Sources of business-cycle volatility: An exploratory study on a sample of OECD countries. Journal of Macroeconomics, 18(4), 621–637.
20
Ketels, C. and O. Memedovic. (2008). From Clusters to Cluster-Based Economic Development. International Journal of Technological Learning, Innovation, and Development, Vol. 1, No. 3, pp. 375-392.
21
Kleinert, J. (2003). Growing Trade in Intermediate Goods: Outsourcing, Global Sourcing, or Increasing Importance of MNE Networks? Review of International Economics, 11, 3.
22
Kleinert, J. & Zorell. N. (2010). The Export-Magnification Effect of Offshoring. University of Tubingen. European Central Bank.
23
Kose, M.A. and K. Yi. (2001). “International trade and business cycles: Is vertical integration the missing link”, American Economic Review, 91 (May), 371-75.
24
Kose, M.A. and K. Yi. (2006). “Can the standard international business cycle model explain the relation between trade and comovement?” Journal of International Economics, Volume 68, Issue 2, Pages 267-295.
25
Lall, S. (2000). The technological structure and performance of developing country manufactured exports, 1985-98, Oxford Development Studies, 28(3), pp. 337-369.
26
Meshcheryakova, Y. (2005). Macroeconomic Effects of International Outsourcing. PHD Dissertation of Economics. Evanston. Illinois.
27
Motavaseli, M., Ebrahimi. I., Shahmoradi. A. and Komijani. A. (2010). Desighning a New Keynesian DSGE Model for Iran’s Economy as an Oil Exporter Country. Iranian Journal of Economic Research, Vol. 10, no. 4, pp. 87-116.
28
Romer, P. M. (1990). Endogenous Technological Change. Journal of Political Economy, vol. 98, no. 5, pt. 2.
29
Sendhaji, S. (1998). Dynamic of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade in LDC: The S-Curve. Journal of International Economics, No. 46, (1998): 105- 131.
30
Shahmoradi, A. Kavand. H,. & Nadri. K. (2010). Estimation of the Equilibrium Rate of Interest in Iranian Economy: A General Equilibrium Approach. Journal of Economic Research, Vol 45,
31
Shahmoradi, A. (2008). Survey the Effects of Energy Price Changes on Price Level, Production and Welfare in Iran’s Economy. Iran’s Ministry of Economic Affairs and Finance.
32
Shephard, B. & Haddad. M. (2011). Managing Openness: Trade and Outward-oriented Growth after the Crisis. The World Bank. Washington DC.
33
Steger, T. M. & Bretschger. L. (2005). Globalization, the Volatility of Intermediate Goods Prices and Economic Growth.
34
Takeuchi, F. (2011). The role of production fragmentation in international business cycle synchronization in East Asia. Journal of Asian Economics. 22, 441-459.
35
Tesar, L. L. (2008). Production sharing and business cycle synchronization in the Accession countries. In Reichlin L., & West, K.D. (Eds.), NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2006, 195-238. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
36
Von Böhm-Barwerk, E.(1921). Kapital und Kapitalzins, Jena.
37
Wellman, A. F. & Frasco. R. (2010). China- Iran Foreign Relations. Available at: http://www.irantracker.org/foreign-relations/china-iran-foreign-relations.
38
Wong, C. Y & Eng. Y. K. (2013). International business cycle co-movement and vertical specialization reconsidered in multistage Bayesian DSGE model. International Review of Economics & Finance. Vol 26, pp 109-124.
39
World Development Indicators (2013). Retrieved from http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development-indicators.
40
Zimmermann, C. (1997). International Real Business Cycles among Heterogeneous Countries. European Economic Review, 41, 319-355.
41
Zorell, N. (2008). Offshoring and Macroeconomic Volatility: A DSGE model with endogenous offshoring. University of Tübingen
42
ORIGINAL_ARTICLE
Studying the Effects of Non-Oil Exports on Targeted Economic Growth in Iranian 5th Development Plan:A Computable General Equilibrium Approach
This paper estimates the effects of increase in Iran’s non-oil exports on its economic growth as well as sectoral outputs, using a single country, comparative static, exogenous policy Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. The paper also investigates the share of tradable sectors in reaching to the targeted growth rate (8%) in 5th socio-economic development plan. For this purpose, the parameters of the model are calibrated based on Iran’s Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) which carries a snapshot of the Iran’s economy. The model is then used to simulate the impact of increasing the exports uniformly across all sectors by 10, 20, and 30 percent on endogenous variables, including sectoral outputs, and GDP. Results suggest that 2.03% of targeted economic growth rate would be achieved by encouraging a 6% growth in exports. Our founding also indicates that industry and mine sector in Iran, would have more influence on growth than other non-oil sectors.
http://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_3114_31c3d982d635814b4fa37a0205c0eb5c.pdf
2014-05-05T11:23:20
2018-04-26T11:23:20
111
130
10.22099/ijes.2014.3114
Computable General Equilibrium
Social Accounting Matrix
Export
Economic growth
Iran’s Economy
Somayeh
Jafari
somayehj99@gmail.com
true
1
LEAD_AUTHOR
Rasul
Bakhshi Dastjerdi
bakhshirassul@gmail.com
true
2
AUTHOR
Reza
Moosavi Mohseni
reza.moosavi.mohseni@aut.ac.nz
true
3
AUTHOR
Akbari, M. & Karimi, H. (2000). the Impact of Export on Economic Growth and Capital Formation, Plan and Budget, 52 & 53, 63-84.
1
Balassa, B. (1978). Exports and Economic Growth, Further Evidence, Development Economic, 5, 181-189.
2
Baradaran, H. & Safari, S. (1999). Effects of Export on the growth of Iran's Economic Sectors, Business, 6, 1-31.
3
Chow, P. (1987). Causality between Export Growth and Industrial Development Empirical Evidence from the NICs, Development Economics, vol.26, page 55-63.
4
General Policies of Iran's Fifth Development Program, Dated 2009/10/1.
5
Haddad, E. & Perobelli, F. (2005). Trade Liberalization and Regional Inequality - Do Transportation Costs Impose a Spatial Poverty Trap?, ERSA conference papers ersa05p700, European Regional Science Association.
6
Kahn, M. & Benjamin, H. (2008). Debunking the Myths of Computable General Equilibrium Models, SCEPA Working Paper, 01-2008.
7
Kavousi, R. (1984). Export expansion and Economic Growth: Further Empirical Evidence, Development Economics, 14, 241-250.
8
Khoshakhlagh. R. & Moosavi, R. (2006). Oil Shock and the Phenomenon of Dutch Disease in Iran's Economy, A Model of Computable General Equilibrium, Economic Research, 77, 97-117.
9
Lofgren, H. (2003). Exercises in General Equilibrium Modeling Using GAMS, IFPRI. Online
10
Michaely, M.(1977). Exports and Growth: an Empiric, Development Economics, 4.
11
Mojaverhosseini, F. (2006). Estimating the Macro-Effects of Accessing Iran to World Trade Organization Using CGE Approach, Quarterly trade studies and research, 39, 1-37.
12
Michalopoulous, C. & Keith, J. (1973). Growth of Exports and Income in the Developing World: a Neoclassical Wiew, Discussion paper, 28 (Agency for International Development, Washington, DC).
13
Motevaseli, M. (1999). Studying the Relationship Between Export and Economic Growth Based on Granger Causality Test, Plan and Budget, 46 & 47, 41-71.
14
Subhash, C. & Sharma, S. & Dhakal, D. (1994). Causal Analyses between Exports and Economic Growth in Developing Countries, Applied Economics, 26, 1145 – 1157.
15
Tayyebi, K. & Mesrinejad, S. (2007). Trade Liberalization of Agricultural Sector and the Application of CGE Model: a Survey on Welfare of Iranian Households, Quarterly Economic Researches, 1, 5-24.
16
Velupillai, K. V. (2006). Algorithmic Foundations of Computable General Equilibrium Theory, Applied Mathematics and Computation, 179, 360-69.
17
Whalley, J. & Shoven, J. (1991). Applying General Equilibrium, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press
18