Research Paper
Energy Economics
Seyyed Mohammad Reza Aghaei Marzebali; Abdollah Arasteh
Abstract
Many nations’ quick development and progress during the last century may be directly attributed to the widespread use of fossil fuels. Particularly, oil has stood out as a defining feature of human civilization. However, the increasing use of fossil fuels like oil and coal has led to serious problems ...
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Many nations’ quick development and progress during the last century may be directly attributed to the widespread use of fossil fuels. Particularly, oil has stood out as a defining feature of human civilization. However, the increasing use of fossil fuels like oil and coal has led to serious problems for the world’s ecosystems, national security, and economic prosperity. This article uses actual options to determine the best time to invest in renewable energy based on diesel price volatility, electricity price volatility, and oil consumption externalities. Different actual choice approaches for discretion assessment are addressed and compared, as well as the usage of devolution for decision making. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations are used to compare these techniques to conventional approaches. The findings show that investments in renewable energy have a positive net present value. The timelessness of investing choices is emphasized by the real options method. Under the present energy system in Iran, switching to renewable energy sources is preferable than maintaining reliance on oil to provide power. Switching to renewable energy sources can help Iran reduce its reliance on oil and promote sustainable economic growth. Furthermore, can help to address the negative externalities associated with fossil fuel use, such as air pollution and climate change. Therefore, it is essential to continue to evaluate and promote the development of renewable energy sources in Iran and around the world. By increasing the cost of using oil or reducing the cost of electricity, policies should encourage investment in renewable energy sources.
Research Paper
Econometrics
Pegah Mahdavi; Mohammad Ali Ehsani
Abstract
The understanding of applied modeling in causal effects is of particular importance in econometrics, according to recent developments and research in causal inference applications. We also provide an outline of econometrics’ use of causal inference. The majority of economists would agree that the ...
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The understanding of applied modeling in causal effects is of particular importance in econometrics, according to recent developments and research in causal inference applications. We also provide an outline of econometrics’ use of causal inference. The majority of economists would agree that the randomized controlled experiment is the gold standard for drawing conclusions, but actually, a significant portion of empirical work in econometrics relies on observational data, where, among other things, the possibility of confounding or loss of exogeneity must be taken into account. We focus in particular on two types of contemporary research: randomized experiments and observational studies. Our review of the dynamic causality study approach, the linear method, which includes LP and VAR, and nonlinear statistical modeling which includes BART, and their use in econometrics, are all reviewed in this paper. Modeling dynamic systems with linear parametric models usually suffer limitation which affects forecasting performance and policy implications. On the nonparametric framework, BART specifications can produce more precise tail forecasts than the VAR structure. Finally, BART has the lowest RMSE in linear and non-linear data generation processes, and also the performance of BART important variables in a set of macroeconomic data has an optimal performance than other regression estimators.
original manuscript
International Economics
Saeed Iranmanesh; Reza Etesami; reza Ashraf gangoei
Abstract
Western countries have always imposed diverse and extensive sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran by the United States of America, the European Union and the United Nations Security Council since the beginning of the revolution for different reasons. Foreign balance payments are one of the main ...
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Western countries have always imposed diverse and extensive sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran by the United States of America, the European Union and the United Nations Security Council since the beginning of the revolution for different reasons. Foreign balance payments are one of the main sectors that are affected by these sanctions. The purpose of this article is to examine the effects and consequences of sanctions on Iran's foreign balance of payments. In order to study this goal, the foreign trade pattern of the Islamic Republic of Iran was simulated using the dynamic systems approach. To quantify the economic effects of sanctions, the opinions of 15 economics experts on sanctions were collected in the form of fuzzy questionnaires, and using the fuzzy logic method, the variable index of sanctions was obtained. The period of this research is 1979-2021. By imposing economic sanctions on the foreign trade model in the form of 4 scenarios, different dimensions of economic sanctions were examined. The results indicate that the sanctions imposed on the Iran through the export channel have posed the greatest risks to the foreign balance of Iran. Accordingly, serious attention to the development of exports in Iran is an important principle in order to reduce the risks of economic sanctions. In addition, the economic consequences of sanctions can be reduced by using trade agreements and selecting strategic partners among countries in the region.
