The Synchronization of Business Cycles among Iran’s Trade Partners



In recent years, investigating synchronization of business cycles among countries, after increasing integration of global economies, has been attracted more attention of policy makers and researchers. Perhaps an unknown origin of such similarities, as an open question, is the main reason of these interests. So, with regard to the mentioned question, the aim of this paper is to investigate some probably determinants of synchronization among Iran’s main trade partners. Therefore, in the first step, in order to measure business cycles, some parametric and non-parametric techniques are used. Then, applying several criteria, the degree of synchronization is determined. After these two steps, employing IV-GLS and QR estimators, the relationship between business cycles and trade intensity index, as a possible channel of synchronization, has considered. The result shows that an increase in trade intensity index increases   business cycle synchronization for all 21 sample countries. Also, this result remained almost unchanged when we divided sample into some subsamples. It is worthy to note that due to the endogeneity of independent variable, the gravity equation and Helpman theorem(1981) are employed. In these equations, some variables such as GDP, common borders and distance had significant effects on trade intensity and hence on business cycles


Article Title [Persian]

همزمانی ادوار تجاری بین شرکای تجاری ایران

Abstract [Persian]

در سال‌های اخیر، بررسی همزمانی ادوار تجاری بین کشورها، بعد از ادغام فزایندة اقتصادهای جهانی، بیش از پیش توجه محققان و سیاست‌گذاران را به خود جلب کرده است. شاید منشأ نه‌چندان شناخته شدة این همزمانی‌ها، به‌عنوان یک سؤال باز، دلیل اصلی این میزان اقبال بوده است. بنابراین، با توجه به سؤال مزبور، هدف این مقاله بررسی تعیین کننده‌های احتمالی همزمانی ادوار تجاری بین ایران و شرکای تجاری آن می‌باشد. از اینرو، در گام اول، از تکنیک‌های مختلف پارامتریک و ناپارامتریک جهت اندازه‌گیری ادوار تجاری استفاده شده است. سپس، با بکارگیری ملاک‌های مختلف میزان همزمانی ادوار تعیین گردیده و آنگاه با استفاده از برآوردگرهای IV-GLS و QR ارتباط بین شاخص شدت تجارت و شاخص همزمانی ادوار، بررسی شده است.
نتایج ما نشان می‌دهد که برای 21 کشورحاضر در نمونه، شاخص افزایش تجارت باعث افزایش همزمانی بین ادوار تجاری می‌شود. همچنین زمانی‌که ما نمونه اصلی را به زیرنمونه‌های مشخص تقسیم کردیم این نتیجه همچنان بدون تغییر باقی ماند. شایان ذکر است که جهت در نظر گرفتن درون‌زایی خود متغیر مستقل( شدت تجارت) در این بررسی، از معادلة جاذبه و نظریه هلپمن (1981) نیز کمک گرفته شد. تولید ناخالص داخلی کشورها، مرزهای مشترک و فاصلة پایتخت کشورها از همدیگر از مهم‌ترین متغیرهایی بودند که در معادلة جاذبه اثر معنی‌دار بر شاخص شدت تجارت و آنگاه همزمانی ادوار داشتند

Keywords [Persian]

  • ادوار تجاری
  • همزمانی ادوار تجاری
  • معادلة جاذبه
  • شاخص شدت تجارت
  • شرکای تجاری
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