Proxy Means Tests for Targeting Subsidies Scheme in Iran



In this paper I develop a Proxy Means Tests (PMT) model and examine several targeting lines based on 2008 household survey data to identify beneficiaries for a targeting subsidy scheme in Iran. Based on the findings of this study, setting a cut-off percentile of 40% is expected to provide compensation for almost 70 percent of the poorest households. This will result in the highest accuracy mainly in rural areas where poverty is much more severe than elsewhere in the country. Substituting the current scheme which covers almost all households in Iran with a targeting scheme based on the results of the PMT model will allow for either transferring larger amount of money to the extreme poor at the current budget, or reducing the government expenditure in the form of repayment after removing subsidies on fuel and energy.


Article Title [Persian]

آزمون تقریب وسع برای برنامه هدفمندی یارانه‌ها در ایران

Author [Persian]

  • محمد بخشوده
Abstract [Persian]

هدف این مقاله شناسایی افراد مشمول برنامه هدفمندی یارانه‌ها در ایران با استفاده از الگوی «آزمون تقریب وسع» و «آزمون چندین خط هدف» بر مبنای داده‌های خانوار سال 1387 می‌باشد. بر مبنای یافته‏های به‌دست آمده، خط هدف 40%، بالاترین میزان دقت را دارد و براساس آن، با جدا کردن 40 درصد جمعیت با درآمد بالا، می‏توان از طریق پرداخت نقدی برای حدود 70 درصد از فقیرترین خانوارها به خصوص در مناطق روستایی که فقر در آنها شدیدتر از سایر مناطق است، جبران خسارت کرد. با جایگزین کردن برنامه فعلی، که تقریباً همه خانوارها را تحت پوشش پرداخت نقدی قرار داده، با برنامه پیشنهادی فوق می‌توان با بودجه اختصاصی فعلی، مبلغ بیشتری به افراد فقیر پرداخت نمود و یا مخارج دولت برای این برنامه را از طریق حذف 40 درصد خانوارها کاهش داد.

Keywords [Persian]

  • برنامه هدفمندی یارانه ها
  • آزمون تقریب وسع (آزمون جایگزین درآمد)
  • ایران
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