Intermediate Goods Trade and Macroeconomic Volatility: The Case of Iran-China Trade Relations

Document Type: Research Paper



This paper tries to analyze the impacts of intermediate goods trade on production, consumption, investment, net exports, employment, labor wage and capital rent of Iran in its bilateral trade relations with China. This analysis has been done by modeling, solving and calibrating an international real business cycles (IRBC) model in period 1980-2009. The results show that when elasticity of substitution between domestic and imported intermediate goods is low, increasing the share of Iran’s imported intermediate goods from China increases volatility of Iran’s macroeconomic variables. The value of an increase in volatility of Iran’s macroeconomic variables depends on elasticity of substitution between domestic and imported intermediate goods, when the elasticity of substitution between domestic and imported intermediate goods is low, an increase in the share of Iran’s imported intermediate goods from China leads to a further increase in the volatility of macroeconomic variables. These results indicate that imports of intermediate goods are an important path through for transmission of shocks between main bilateral trade partners.


Article Title [Persian]

تجارت کالاهای واسطه‌ای و نوسان اقتصاد کلان: مطالعه موردی رابطه‌ی تجاری ایران-چین

Authors [Persian]

  • سید رضا میرعسکری
  • سید کمیل طیبی
  • محمد واعظ برزانی
Abstract [Persian]

این مقاله به تحلیل آثار تجارت کالاهای واسطه­ای بین ایران و چین بر تولید، مصرف، سرمایه‌گذاری، خالص صادرات، اشتغال، دستمزد نیروی کار و بازده سرمایه ایران می­پردازد. این تحلیل با الگوسازی، حل و مقداردهی یک الگوی ادوار تجاری واقعی بین­المللی در دوره 2009-1980 صورت می­گیرد. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که وقتی کشش جانشینی بین کالاهای واسطه­ای داخلی و وارداتی کمتر است، افزایش سهم کالاهای واسطه­ای وارداتی ایران از چین با افزایش نوسان متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی ایران همراه است. مقدار افزایش در نوسان متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی ایران به کشش جانشینی بین کالاهای واسطه‌ای داخلی و وارداتی بستگی دارد. وقتی کشش جانشینی بین کالاهای واسطه­ای داخی و وارداتی کمتر است، افزایش در سهم کالاهای واسطه­ای وارداتی ایران از چین، منجر به افزایش بیشتری در نوسان متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی می­شود. این نتایج نشان می­دهد که تجارت کالاهای واسطه­ای، مسیر مهمی برای انتقال تکانه­ها بین شرکای تجاری دوجانبه است.

Keywords [Persian]

  • کالاهای واسطه‌ای
  • چرخه‌های تجاری واقعی بین‌المللی
  • الگوی تعادل عمومی
  • مقداردهی
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Volume 3, Issue 1
Winter and Spring 2014
Pages 83-110
  • Receive Date: 19 February 2014
  • Revise Date: 15 February 2015
  • Accept Date: 18 February 2015