Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

Abstract

This paper tries to analyze the impacts of intermediate goods trade on production, consumption, investment, net exports, employment, labor wage and capital rent of Iran in its bilateral trade relations with China. This analysis has been done by modeling, solving and calibrating an international real business cycles (IRBC) model in period 1980-2009. The results show that when elasticity of substitution between domestic and imported intermediate goods is low, increasing the share of Iran’s imported intermediate goods from China increases volatility of Iran’s macroeconomic variables. The value of an increase in volatility of Iran’s macroeconomic variables depends on elasticity of substitution between domestic and imported intermediate goods, when the elasticity of substitution between domestic and imported intermediate goods is low, an increase in the share of Iran’s imported intermediate goods from China leads to a further increase in the volatility of macroeconomic variables. These results indicate that imports of intermediate goods are an important path through for transmission of shocks between main bilateral trade partners.

Keywords

Article Title [Persian]

تجارت کالاهای واسطه‌ای و نوسان اقتصاد کلان: مطالعه موردی رابطه‌ی تجاری ایران-چین

Authors [Persian]

  • سید رضا میرعسکری
  • سید کمیل طیبی
  • محمد واعظ برزانی

Abstract [Persian]

این مقاله به تحلیل آثار تجارت کالاهای واسطه­ای بین ایران و چین بر تولید، مصرف، سرمایه‌گذاری، خالص صادرات، اشتغال، دستمزد نیروی کار و بازده سرمایه ایران می­پردازد. این تحلیل با الگوسازی، حل و مقداردهی یک الگوی ادوار تجاری واقعی بین­المللی در دوره 2009-1980 صورت می­گیرد. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که وقتی کشش جانشینی بین کالاهای واسطه­ای داخلی و وارداتی کمتر است، افزایش سهم کالاهای واسطه­ای وارداتی ایران از چین با افزایش نوسان متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی ایران همراه است. مقدار افزایش در نوسان متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی ایران به کشش جانشینی بین کالاهای واسطه‌ای داخلی و وارداتی بستگی دارد. وقتی کشش جانشینی بین کالاهای واسطه­ای داخی و وارداتی کمتر است، افزایش در سهم کالاهای واسطه­ای وارداتی ایران از چین، منجر به افزایش بیشتری در نوسان متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی می­شود. این نتایج نشان می­دهد که تجارت کالاهای واسطه­ای، مسیر مهمی برای انتقال تکانه­ها بین شرکای تجاری دوجانبه است.

Keywords [Persian]

  • کالاهای واسطه‌ای
  • چرخه‌های تجاری واقعی بین‌المللی
  • الگوی تعادل عمومی
  • مقداردهی
Amini, A,. & Neshat H. M. (2005). Estimation of Iran’s Capital Stock Time Series in Period 1959-2002. The Journal of Planning and Budgeting, No 90, pp 53-86.
Antràs, P. & Helpman. E. (2004). Global sourcing. Journal of Political Economics, 112(3), 552–580.
Backus, D., Kehoe, P., & Kydland, F. (1992). International real business cycles. The Journal of Political Economy, 100(4), 745–775.
Backus, D., Kehoe, P., & Kydland, F. (1994). Dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade: The J-curve? The American Economic Review, 84(1), 84–103.
Backus, D. K., P. J. Kehoe, and F. Kydland. (1995). “International Business Cycles: Theory vs. Evidence," in T. F. Cooley, ed., Frontiers of Business Cycle Research, Princeton University Press.
Baxter, M., & Kouparitsas, M.A. (2005). Determinants of business cycle comovement: a robust analysis. Journal of Monetary Economics, 52, 113-157.
Buch, C. M., Doepke, J. & Pierdzioch, C. (2005). Financial openness and business cycle volatility. Journal of International Money and Finance, 24(5), 744–765.
Burstein, A., Kurz, C., & Tesar, L. (2008). Trade, production sharing, and the international transmission of business cycle. Journal of Monetary Economics, 55, 775-795.
Canova, F. & Ubide. A. J. (1998). International Business Cycles, Financial Markets and Household Production. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 22, 545-572.
Clark, T.E., & van Wincoop, E. (2001). Borders and business cycles. Journal of International Economics, 55, 59-85.
di Giovanni, J., & Levchenko, A.A. (2010). Putting the parts together: trade, vertical linkages, and business cycle comovement. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 2, 95-124.
Drucker, P. (1977). The Rise of Production Sharing. Wall Street Journal. March 15.
Feenstra, R. C. (2004). Advanced International Trade: Theory and Evidence. Princeton University Press.Princeton.
Feenstra, R. C. & Taylor. A. M. (2012). International Economics. Second Edition. Worth Publishers.
Frankel, J.A., & Rose, A.K. (1998). The endogeneity of the optimum currency area criteria. Economic Journal, 108, 1009-1025.
Grossman, G. & Helpman. E. (1991). Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy. Cambridge. MIT Press.
Hummels, D., Ishi, J. & Yi, K. M. (2001).The Nature and Growth of Vertical Specialization in World Trade. Journal of International Economics, 54, 75-96.
Humphrey, J. and H. Schmitz, Hubert. (2002). How Does Insertion in Global Value Chains Affect Upgrading in Industrial Clusters?. Regional Studies, 36 (9), 1017-27.
Johnson, R. & Noguera. G. (2012). Accounting for Intermediates: Production Sharing and Trade in Value Added. Journal of International Economics, 86, 224-236.
Karras, G. & Song, F. (1996). Sources of business-cycle volatility: An exploratory study on a sample of OECD countries. Journal of Macroeconomics, 18(4), 621–637.
Ketels, C. and O. Memedovic. (2008). From Clusters to Cluster-Based Economic Development. International Journal of Technological Learning, Innovation, and Development, Vol. 1, No. 3, pp. 375-392.
Kleinert, J. (2003). Growing Trade in Intermediate Goods: Outsourcing, Global Sourcing, or Increasing Importance of MNE Networks? Review of International Economics, 11, 3.
Kleinert, J. & Zorell. N. (2010). The Export-Magnification Effect of Offshoring. University of Tubingen. European Central Bank.
Kose, M.A. and K. Yi. (2001). “International trade and business cycles: Is vertical integration the missing link”, American Economic Review, 91 (May), 371-75.
Kose, M.A. and K. Yi. (2006). “Can the standard international business cycle model explain the relation between trade and comovement?” Journal of International Economics, Volume 68, Issue 2, Pages 267-295.
Lall, S. (2000). The technological structure and performance of developing country manufactured exports, 1985-98, Oxford Development Studies, 28(3), pp. 337-369.
Meshcheryakova, Y. (2005). Macroeconomic Effects of International Outsourcing. PHD Dissertation of Economics. Evanston. Illinois.
Motavaseli, M., Ebrahimi. I., Shahmoradi. A. and Komijani. A. (2010). Desighning a New Keynesian DSGE Model for Iran’s Economy as an Oil Exporter Country. Iranian Journal of Economic Research, Vol. 10, no. 4, pp. 87-116.
Romer, P. M. (1990). Endogenous Technological Change. Journal of Political Economy, vol. 98, no. 5, pt. 2.
Sendhaji, S. (1998). Dynamic of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade in LDC: The S-Curve. Journal of International Economics, No. 46, (1998): 105- 131.
Shahmoradi, A. Kavand. H,. & Nadri. K. (2010). Estimation of the Equilibrium Rate of Interest in Iranian Economy: A General Equilibrium Approach. Journal of Economic Research, Vol 45,
Issue 1.
Shahmoradi, A. (2008). Survey the Effects of Energy Price Changes on Price Level, Production and Welfare in Iran’s Economy. Iran’s Ministry of Economic Affairs and Finance.
Shephard, B. & Haddad. M. (2011). Managing Openness: Trade and Outward-oriented Growth after the Crisis. The World Bank. Washington DC.
Steger, T. M. & Bretschger. L. (2005). Globalization, the Volatility of Intermediate Goods Prices and Economic Growth.
Takeuchi, F. (2011). The role of production fragmentation in international business cycle synchronization in East Asia. Journal of Asian Economics. 22, 441-459.
Tesar, L. L. (2008). Production sharing and business cycle synchronization in the Accession countries. In Reichlin L., & West, K.D. (Eds.), NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2006, 195-238. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Von Böhm-Barwerk, E.(1921). Kapital und Kapitalzins, Jena.
Wellman, A. F. & Frasco. R. (2010). China- Iran Foreign Relations. Available at: http://www.irantracker.org/foreign-relations/china-iran-foreign-relations.
Wong, C. Y & Eng. Y. K. (2013). International business cycle co-movement and vertical specialization reconsidered in multistage Bayesian DSGE model. International Review of Economics & Finance. Vol 26, pp 109-124.
World Development Indicators (2013). Retrieved from http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development-indicators.
Zimmermann, C. (1997). International Real Business Cycles among Heterogeneous Countries. European Economic Review, 41, 319-355.
Zorell, N. (2008). Offshoring and Macroeconomic Volatility: A DSGE model with endogenous offshoring. University of Tübingen