Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

Department of Economics, SemnanUniversity,Semnan-Iran

Abstract

The tax-expenditure hypothesis posed by Milton Friedman emphasizes a positive causal relationship between government tax revenues and government expenditures. If citizens do not have a correct perception of the real tax burden and under-estimate the price of public goods and services, there is a negative causal relationship between tax revenues and government expenditures, which indicates existence of fiscal illusion. Using quarterly data. for the period 2001-2012, this paper investigates fiscal illusion in Iran. In order to achieve this goal, two symmetric and asymmetric error correction models, are estimated. According to results from Wald test in symmetric model, there is a negative causal relationship between real tax revenues, and real government expenditures. This result hence, confirms the presence of fiscal illusion in Iranian economy. Moreover, the results obtained from the asymmetric model show that there is merely fiscal illusion in the case of tax revenues reduction and there is no Granger causal relationship for the positive changes of tax revenues. Therefore, by a decline in tax revenues, government expenditures increase after a year due to fiscal illusion. Thus, it seems that in the state of government's budget deficit, raising the taxes is an efficient instrument.

Keywords

Article Title [Persian]

اثرات نامتقارن درآمدهای مالیاتی بر مخارج دولت در اقتصاد ایران (با تأکید بر پدیدۀ توهَم مالی )

Authors [Persian]

  • مجید مداح
  • محبوبه فراهتی

دانشیار اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و علوم اداری، دانشگاه سمنان

Abstract [Persian]

فرضیه مالیات - مخارج مطرح شده توسط میلتون فریدمن مبتنی بر این ایده است که یک رابطه علی مثبت از طرف درآمدهای مالیاتی دولت به سمت مخارج آن برقرار می‌باشد. در برخی جوامع ممکن است شهروندان به علت درک نادرست از بار واقعی مالیات، قیمت کالا و خدمات عمومی را کمتر یا بیشتر از حد برآورد ‌کنند که در نتیجه آن رابطه علی منفی از طرف درآمدهای مالیاتی به مخارج دولت برقرار می‌گردد که این موضوع، نشان دهنده وجود توهم مالی می‌باشد. در این مقاله پدیده توهم مالی در اقتصاد ایران با استفاده از داده‌های فصلی مخارج دولت و درآمدهای مالیاتی در دوره 1380 تا 1391 مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است، بدین منظور از مدلهای تصحیح خطای متقارن و نامتقارن استفاده شده است. بر اساس نتایج حاصل از آزمون والد در مدل متقارن یک رابطه علی منفی از طرف درآمدهای مالیاتی به مخارج دولت بر مبنای قیمت های ثابت متغیرها پس از گذشت یکسال، وجود دارد که نشان دهنده توهم مالی در اقتصاد ایران می‌باشد. همچنین نتایج حاصل از مدل نامتقارن نشان می­دهد توهم مالی منحصرا در حالت کاهش درآمدهای مالیاتی وجود دارد و رابطه علیت گرنجر برای تغییرات مثبت درآمدهای مالیاتی برقرار نیست. بنابراین با کاهش درآمدهای مالیاتی بعد از یک سال، به علت وجود توهم مالی مخارج دولت افزایش می‌یابد که بر این اساس در شرایط کسری بودجه دولت، افزایش مالیات می­تواند به عنوان یک ابزار کارا مورد استفاده قرار گیرد.

Keywords [Persian]

  • مخارج دولت
  • توهم مالی
  • درآمد مالیاتی
  • آزمون ریشه واحد فصلی
  • مدل تصحیح خطای فصلی(SECM)
  • اقتصاد ایران
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