Gender and the Factors Affecting Child Labor in Iran: an Application of IV-TOBIT Model

Document Type: Research Paper

Authors

1 Faculty of Economics, Allame Tabatabaie University, Tehran, Iran.

2 Department of Economics, Mazandaran University, Babolsar, Iran.

3 Department of Economics, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran.

Abstract

In this paper we first intend to examine the probability of falling into the realm of child labor by using conditional probability theorem. Furthermore, we will compare the extent of each factor’s effect on boys and girls using a TOBIT regression model. Finally we will analyze aspects of Iran’s labor market to assess the future ahead of the children who work at present. As the results will show, the probability of not attending school conditional on being male is 0.081, whereas the same probability conditional on being female is 0.12. More probability scores are estimated in the paper. Moreover, the results from the TOBIT regression shows that in general boys are more affected than the girls by the same factors. Also, based on the macro statistics published by Iran’s Statistical Center, the graduation of numerous people from graduate schools combined with the low and slow rate of economic growth makes it quite difficult to find a decent work in the country. As a result, the skilled labor force will be content with accepting low wage jobs which are more suitable for the unskilled workers. Therefore, those who left school earlier in their lives will face several problems in the future.

Keywords


Article Title [Persian]

جنسیت و عوامل مؤثر بر کار کودک در ایران: کاربردی از IV-TOBIT

Authors [Persian]

  • تیمور محمدی 1
  • زهرا کریمی موغاری 2
  • سهند ابراهیمی پورفائز 3
1 دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران.
2 گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران.
3 گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران.
Abstract [Persian]

در این مقاله ابتدا احتمال ورود به محدوده کار کودک با استفاده از قضیه احتمالات شرطی آزمون می‌شود. در ادامه، گستره اثر متغیرهای مؤثر بر کار کودک با استفاده از الگوی TOBIT بر دخترها و پسرها مقایسه می‌شود. در آخر ابعاد مختلف بازار کار ایران تحلیل شده تا آینده پیش روی کودکانی که در حال حاضر مشغول به کار هستند ارزیابی شود. همان طور که نتایج نشان می‌دهند، احتمال عدم ورود به مدرسه مشروط بر پسر بودن 081/0 است. در حالی که این احتمال به شرط دختر بودن 12/0 است. در متن مقاله احتمالات بیشتری برآورد شده‌اند. علاوه بر آن، نتایج الگوی توبیت نشان می‌دهد که در کل پسرها اثرپذیری قوی‌تری نسبت به دخترها از عوامل مشابه دارند. همچنین، مبتنی بر آمارهای کلان منتشر شده توسط مرکز آمار ایران، فارغ‌التحصیلی تعداد کثیری از افراد دانشگاهی در مقاطع تحصیلات تکمیلی در کنار نرخ رشد اقتصادی آهسته و اندک، یافتن کاری شایسته را در کشور به طور کامل دشوار می‌کند. در نتیجه، نیروی کار تحصیل‌کرده به پذیرش مشاغل با سطوح دستمزد پایین راضی می‌شود که بیشتر مناسب نیروی کار غیرماهر است. در نتیجه، آنهایی که مدرسه را در سال‌های ابتدایی عمرشان ترک کرده اند با مسائل متعددی در آینده روبرو می‌شوند.

Keywords [Persian]

  • کار کودک
  • تناقض ثروت
  • آکسیوم رفاه
  • الگوهای توبیت
  • بازار کار
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