Comparative Analysis of Sectoral Multipliers of Input-Output Model and Social Accounting Matrix

Document Type: Research Paper

Authors

1 Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabatabae University, Tehran, Iran.

2 Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabatabaei University, Tehran, Iran.

Abstract

The present study is to indicate that the comparison between sectoral production multipliers of an input-output (I/O) model and a social accounting matrix (SAM) framework is almost impossible without taking into account accounting balances and theoretical considerations. Theoretically, the I/O model provides the Leontief’s production function, on the basis of which sectoral output multiplier can be derived. In a SAM, however, the combined Leontief-Keynes models dominate multipliers commonly known as accounting multiplier matrices. The inter-industry blocks of these matrices cannot be called sectoral output multipliers as in an I/O model, rather they are known as sectoral supply multipliers. Therefore, the two sectoral multipliers are of different nature and cannot be compared for assessing sectoral performance and sectoral policy analysis of the key sectors. In the light of these evidence, this important question can be posed that whether it is possible to compare sectoral multipliers of the two approaches or not? To investigate this, two databases were used, namely the conventional I/O tables and SAM. The data for both sets of tables, prepared by the Research Center of the Islamic Parliament for the year 2011, were aggregated into 21×21 sectors. The overall results indicated that sectoral output multipliers of a conventional I/O model grossly overestimated multipliers of key sectors while sectoral supply multipliers of a conventional SAM underestimated multipliers of the key sectors. To solve the problem and make sectoral multipliers of the two approaches comparable, deduction of imports has been proposed. The overall findings showed that sectoral output multipliers of a conventional I/O model were overestimated about 1.284 unit on average and sectoral supply multipliers of a conventional SAM were underestimated about 1.245 unit on average. Considering the domestic I/O model and SAM, however, it was observed that sectoral output multipliers is on an average 1.202 in domestic IOM whereas in domestic SAM sectoral output multipliers is on an average 1.237. Consequently, the two approaches were comparable in sectoral policy analysis.

Keywords


Article Title [Persian]

بررسی تطبیقی ضرایب فزاینده تولید بخش‌ها در جداول داده-ستانده و ماتریس‌ حسابداری اجتماعی

Authors [Persian]

  • علی فریدزاد 1
  • علی اصغر بانویی 2
1 دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران.
2 دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران.
Abstract [Persian]

مقایسه ضرایب فزاینده تولید بخش‌ها در الگوی داده-ستانده با رویکرد ماتریس حسابداری اجتماعی نشان می‌دهد که مطابق مبانی نظری بر اساس رویکرد الگوی داده-ستانده لئونتیف، ضرایب فنی داده-ستانده (پیش‌نیاز محاسبه ضرایب فزاینده تقاضا به تولید)، از تقسیم مبادلات واسطه‌ای بین بخشی به ستانده یا عرضه داخلی هر بخش حاصل می‌شود در حالی که در رویکرد ماتریس حسابداری اجتماعی بمنظور بدست آوردن ماتریس ضرایب فنی، ماتریس مبادلات واسطه‌ای بین بخشی بر عرضه کل (مجموع عرضه داخلی و واردات) تقسیم می‌گردد. این موضوع، منجر به اختلاف میان ضرایب فنی داده-ستانده و در پی آن ضرایب فزاینده تولیدی در جدول داده-ستانده و ماتریس حسابداری اجتماعی خواهد شد بطوری که نمی‌توان ضرایب فزاینده تولیدی حاصل از جداول داده-ستانده را با ضرایب فزاینده تولید بخش‌ها حاصل از ماتریس حسابداری اجتماعی مقایسه نمود. سوال اساسی آن است که چگونه می‌توان نتایج حاصل از ضرایب فزاینده تولید بخش‌ها در دو الگوی یادشده را مطابقت داد و قابلیت مقایسه آنها را با یکدیگر فراهم نمود؟ در این مطالعه از رویکرد روش‌شناسی الگوهای داده-ستانده و ماتریس حسابداری اجتماعی متعارف استفاده می‌شود. همچنین به منظور پیگیری اهداف پژوهش، از جدول داده-ستانده و ماتریس حسابداری اجتماعی سال 1390 مرکز پژوهش‌های مجلس استفاده می‌شود.

Keywords [Persian]

  • الگوی داده-ستانده
  • ماتریس حسابداری اجتماعی
  • تفکیک واردات
  • ضرایب فنی
  • ضرایب فزاینده
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