Optimal Cyclical Behavior of Monetary Policy of Iran: Using a DSGE Model

Document Type: Research Paper


Department of Economics, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran.


The countercyclical monetary policy is a policy that economists recommend to adopt in order to slow down the economic fluctuations. The aim of this study is to address the question that, in the presence of fiscal dominance and considering institutional quality (IQL), what the optimal monetary policy should be during the business cycles? To find the appropriate answer, first, in the framework of a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model, proportional to the structure of the Iranian economy, the parameters of the model are derived. Then, considering fiscal dominance and institutional quality, the optimal monetary policy during the business cycles is calculated and by using the equilibrium parameters, using data of Iran during 1991:2-2016:1, it is calibrated. The results show that the optimal monetary policy during business cycles of Iran is a countercyclical monetary policy. The optimal monetary policy coefficient during the business cycles decreases by a decline in institutional quality and an increase in fiscal dominance. In addition, when the policymaker's goal is only stabilizing inflation, the optimal monetary policy is independent of the business cycles. In addition, when the monetary policy is assumed completely independent, the optimal policy coefficient takes the highest value compared to the other assumed conditions.


Article Title [Persian]

تعیین رفتار بهینه سیاست پولی در ادوار تجاری با استفاده از الگوی تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی

Authors [Persian]

  • ندا کسایی پور
  • علیرضا عرفانی
گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه سمنان، سمنان، ایران.
Abstract [Persian]

سیاست پولی مخالف ادوار تجاری، سیاستی است که اقتصاددانان برای کاهش نوسانات اقتصادی پیشنهاد می‌کنند. هدف مطالعه حاضر پاسخگویی به این سؤال است که با وجود سلطه مالی و با مدنظر قرار دادن کیفیت نهادی، سیاست پولی بهینه، طی ادوار تجاری باید چگونه باشد؟ برای یافتن پاسخ مناسب، ابتدا در چارچوب یک الگوی تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی، متناسب با ساختار اقتصاد ایران، پارامترهای الگو استخراج شده‌اند. سپس سیاست بهینه پولی طی ادوار تجاری با لحاظ کردن سلطه مالی و کیفیت نهادی محاسبه و با استفاده از پارامترهای تعادلی، مقدار دهی (کالیبره) شده است. نتایج، نشان می‌دهد که سیاست پولی بهینه طی ادوار تجاری، سیاست پولی ضد ادواری است. ضریب سیاست پولی بهینه طی ادوار تجاری با کاهش کیفیت نهادی و افزایش سلطه مالی، کم می‌شود. همچنین در صورتی که هدف سیاستگذار فقط، تثبیت تورم باشد، سیاست بهینه پولی، مستقل از ادوار تجاری است. علاوه بر این، در حالتی که سیاست پولی به طور کامل مستقل فرض شود، ضریب سیاست بهینه، بیشترین مقدار را نسبت به سایر شرایط مفروض به خود می‌گیرد.

Keywords [Persian]

  • سیاست پولی
  • ادوار تجاری
  • الگوی تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی
  • ایران

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