Forecasting Industrial Production in Iran: A Comparative Study of Artificial Neural Networks and Adaptive Nero-Fuzzy Inference System

Document Type: Research Paper

Authors

Facolty of Economic,University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran.

Abstract

Forecasting industrial production is essential for efficient planning by managers. Although there are many statistical and mathematical methods for prediction, the use of intelligent algorithms with desirable features has made significant progress in recent years. The current study compared the accuracy of the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Adaptive Nero-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) approaches to assess the current state and predict the future state of industrial production. The seasonal dataset comprised the labor force, capital stock, human capital, trade openness, liquidity and credit financing to the industrial sector as input variables and value added of industrial production as the output variable for the period of 1988 to 2018. The dataset was used to forecast industrial production for Seasons of the year 2019 and 2020. The results showed that, while both are appropriate tools for forecasting industrial production, ANFIS had a lower the Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) than ANN. The findings of the research indicate that ANFIS is more effective in forecasting industrial production, which can help policymakers in planning and creating an effective strategy for the future.

Keywords


Article Title [Persian]

پیش بینی تولیدات صنعتی در ایران: مقایسه شبکه های عصبی فازی و سیستم فازی عصبی تطبیقی

Authors [Persian]

  • افسانه کاظمی مهرآبادی
  • وحید تقی نژاد عمران
  • محمد ولی پور خطیر
  • سعید راسخی
دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران.
Abstract [Persian]

Forecasting industrial production is essential for efficient planning by managers. Although there are many statistical and mathematical methods for prediction, the use of intelligent algorithms with desirable features has made significant progress in recent years. The current study compared the accuracy of the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Adaptive Nero-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) approaches to assess the current state and predict the future state of industrial production. The seasonal dataset comprised the labor force, capital stock, human capital, trade openness, liquidity and credit financing to the industrial sector as input variables and value added of industrial production as the output variable for the period of 1988 to 2018. The dataset was used to forecast industrial production for Seasons of the year 2019 and 2020. The results showed that, while both are appropriate tools for forecasting industrial production, ANFIS had a lower the Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) than ANN. The findings of the research indicate that ANFIS is more effective in forecasting industrial production, which can help policymakers in planning and creating an effective strategy for the future.

Keywords [Persian]

  • پیش بینی
  • تولیدات صنعتی
  • شبکه های عصبی فازی
  • سیستم فازی عصبی تطبیقی
  • ایران