Document Type : Research Paper

Author

Department of Economics, Alzahra University, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

Tourism has not been a growing sector in Iran in recent decades due to political conflicts with the west. Still, there is hope that it grows after lifting the economic and monetary sanctions and may bring both political and economic stability and more foreign tourists to Iran. This paper aims to study the distributional impact of foreign tourist spending in Iran using structural path analysis (SPA) within the SAM framework. The primary databases are the 2011 SAM and foreign tourism spending in 2018. According to the SAM multiplier results, high-income groups benefit significantly from foreign tourists spending and generates more inequality between ten deciles of urban and rural household income groups. Moreover, the SPA approach results indicate that most of the paths affecting household income pass through production factors. Evaluating production factors reveal that mixed-income has a significant contributor to intermediate paths., Its share in global influence for higher-income groups is significantly greater than middle- and low-income groups. Global influence also reveals that compensation of employees for lower household income groups would be affected sharply.

Keywords

Main Subjects

Article Title [Persian]

مسیرهای توزیعی هزینه گردشگران خارجی در ایران - رویکرد تحلیل مسیر ساختاری

Author [Persian]

  • فاطمه بزازان

بخش اقتصاد، دانشگاه الزهرا، تهران، ایران

Abstract [Persian]

گردشگری در ایران به علت تنگناهای سیاسی با غرب رشد زیادی در دهه های اخیر نداشته است. اما هنوز امیدهایی وجود دارد که در صورت رفع تحریم های اقتصادی و مالی، شاهد رشد آن باشیم و گردشگران خارجی بیشتری وارد ایران شوند.
هدف اصلی مقاله مطالعه اثر توزیعی مخارج گردشگران خارجی با استفاده از روش تحلیل مسیر ساختاری در چارچوب ماتریس حسابداری اجتماعی در ایران است. پایه آماری اصلی مطالعه شامل ماتریس حسابداری اجتماعی سال 1390 و هزینه‌های گردشگران خارجی در سال 1397 است.
نتایج ضریب فزاینده مستخرج از ماتریس حسابداری اجتماعی نشان می دهد، از ورود گردشگران خارجی گروه‌های درآمدی بالا به طور قابل توجهی بیشتر منتفع شده و نابرابری بین دهک‌های درآمدی خانوارهای شهری و روستایی را افزایش می دهد. علاوه بر این، نتایج تحلیل مسیر ساختاری نشان می‌دهد بیشتر مسیرهای تأثیرگذار بر درآمد خانوار از طریق عوامل تولید حاصل می‌شود. در شناسایی عوامل تولید اثر گذار مشخص شد که درآمد مختلط سهم زیادی در مسیرهای میانی داشته و سهم آن در اثر کل برای گروه‌های با درآمد بالاتر به طور قابل توجهی بیشتر از گروه‌های با درآمد متوسط و پایین است. نتایج اثر کل همچنین نیز نشان می‌دهد که جبران خدمات کارمندان خانوارهای کم درآمد به شدت تحت تأثیر قرار خواهد گرفت.

Keywords [Persian]

  • ایران
  • ماتریس حسابداری اجتماعی (SAM)
  • مخارج گردشگری
  • مسیر تحلیل ساختاری
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