Energy Economics
Mina Javadinia; seyyed Abdol Majid Jalaee Esfand Abadi; Mehdi Nejati
Abstract
Today, the energy market in the world is facing an important position, and on the other hand, the importance of gas as a clean fuel is significant. According to the approach and structure of the energy market, the main axis of this research is based on the game theory approach. On the other hand, the ...
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Today, the energy market in the world is facing an important position, and on the other hand, the importance of gas as a clean fuel is significant. According to the approach and structure of the energy market, the main axis of this research is based on the game theory approach. On the other hand, the interests of Iran and Qatar will give rise to a conflict over price between the two countries. Therefore, in the present study the dynamic computable general equilibrium model and the 2014 social accounting matrix were used to investigate the impact of gas price shocks on the gas exports of these two countries. As Iran and Qatar are known as main competitors in the natural gas sector of world energy market, it is necessary to specify a win-win pricing strategy for both countries. Taking this into account, in the present study a model that incorporates both the dynamic computable general equilibrium and game theory is used for investigation purposes. The results indicate that, 0.5% price increase would be the best strategy from among the wide range of gas price scenarios presented for 2022-2024, because a 0.5% increase in gas prices in general would further increase the exports of Iran and Qatar as two competitors. Thus, based on the equilibrium forms, stepwise price rise over a specific time interval can help these two countries maximize their interests.
Pardisolssadat Seyedmashhadi; Seyed Abdolmajid Jalaee Esfand Abadi; Mehdi Nejati; Mohsen Zayandehroodi
Abstract
the present paper evaluates the effect of investment risk spillover on key economic indicators using a CGE model and the GTAP.9 database have been used for this purpose. Two scenarios of 10% and 3% increase in investment risk are considered in order to investigate the effect of these changes according ...
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the present paper evaluates the effect of investment risk spillover on key economic indicators using a CGE model and the GTAP.9 database have been used for this purpose. Two scenarios of 10% and 3% increase in investment risk are considered in order to investigate the effect of these changes according to a recent trend analysis of economic indicators in Iran and the trend of the Iranian economy towards globalization and opening of the economy windows. The results show that both scenarios reduce investment risk, inflation, gross domestic product and total investment. Government expenditures are reduced in all sectors of the economy except for the service sector, which is almost unchanged. The exports are increased in all sectors and the imports are declined in sectors of agriculture, industry and services. As well as, the results show that the import of the oil and gas sector has not been heavily influenced by the investment risk due to its governmental status. By assessing these two scenarios and the sensitivity of the macroeconomic indicators to the degree of risk change, it can be stated that the key economic indicators will be significantly improved by managing the risk of investment.
