Monetary economics
Mahboobeh khadem Nematollahy; Teymour Mohammadi; Abbas Shakeri; Ali Asghar Salem
Abstract
This study examines the impacts of demand, supply, exchange rate, and unconventional monetary policy (UMP) shocks on GDP, inflation, exchange rate, and interest rate in Iran. Using sign-restriction, short-run zero-restriction, and long-run zero-restriction inside vector autoregressive frameworks, we ...
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This study examines the impacts of demand, supply, exchange rate, and unconventional monetary policy (UMP) shocks on GDP, inflation, exchange rate, and interest rate in Iran. Using sign-restriction, short-run zero-restriction, and long-run zero-restriction inside vector autoregressive frameworks, we constructed three- and four-variable models incorporating real interest rate, real exchange rate, GDP, and inflation data spanning from 1961-Q1 to 2021-Q1. We executed a bootstrap resampling technique that satisfies the signs on loops. Our findings indicate that an unconventional monetary policy, particularly a negative monetary policy shock, results in an increase in GDP and a reduction in the real exchange rate, so significantly reducing inflation. An unconventional monetary policy may be implemented to stimulate the economy. Consequently, the novel combined approach facilitates the identification of unconventional monetary policy shocks and can be broadly applied to other economic shocks. The primary question of the study is whether UMP shocks in Iran can be estimated and identified through zero and sign restrictions. The study aims to identify UMP shocks by regressing a collection of variables pertinent to the decisions of the Central Bank of Iran (CBI).Introducing UMP in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) such as Iran aims to attainin their output and inflation targets
Energy Economics
Elham Gholampour; Teymour Mohammadi; Asghar Abolhasani hastiani; Mohsen Mehrara
Abstract
This paper primarily focuses on the global macroeconomic consequence, which are the result of country-specific oil supply shocks using the GVAR-Oil model estimated for 27 countries/regions over the 1979Q2-2019Q4 period. Not only does this approach include how shocks affect directly exposed countries ...
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This paper primarily focuses on the global macroeconomic consequence, which are the result of country-specific oil supply shocks using the GVAR-Oil model estimated for 27 countries/regions over the 1979Q2-2019Q4 period. Not only does this approach include how shocks affect directly exposed countries but it also indicates the indirect results of shocks thanks to secondary or tertiary channels. Given the importance of Saudi Arabia and Iran in the world’s oil supply, adopting this model facilitates the way in which oil supply shocks are examined in the country-specific context. Therefore, the results indicate different disruptions depending on which country is subject to the shock. In fact, this study shows that a negative shock to oil supply in Iran has relatively insignificant effects on the global economy compared with those of Saudi Arabia since it can be neutralized by the increase in Saudi Arabia oil production. A negative shock to the oil supply in Saudi Arabia, however, results in an increase in oil prices, which adversely affects GDP and financial market in general. In addition, this approach provides policymakers with more opportunities to cope with consequences, which are the result of Covid-19, sanctions, and war, for instance, in a wider range of countries as representatives of the global economy, and thus help them to make better strategic decisions.
Teimour Mohammadi; Zahra Karimi Moughari; Sahand Ebrahimi Pourfaez
Abstract
In this paper we first intend to examine the probability of falling into the realm of child labor by using conditional probability theorem. Furthermore, we will compare the extent of each factor’s effect on boys and girls using a TOBIT regression model. Finally we will analyze aspects of Iran’s ...
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In this paper we first intend to examine the probability of falling into the realm of child labor by using conditional probability theorem. Furthermore, we will compare the extent of each factor’s effect on boys and girls using a TOBIT regression model. Finally we will analyze aspects of Iran’s labor market to assess the future ahead of the children who work at present. As the results will show, the probability of not attending school conditional on being male is 0.081, whereas the same probability conditional on being female is 0.12. More probability scores are estimated in the paper. Moreover, the results from the TOBIT regression shows that in general boys are more affected than the girls by the same factors. Also, based on the macro statistics published by Iran’s Statistical Center, the graduation of numerous people from graduate schools combined with the low and slow rate of economic growth makes it quite difficult to find a decent work in the country. As a result, the skilled labor force will be content with accepting low wage jobs which are more suitable for the unskilled workers. Therefore, those who left school earlier in their lives will face several problems in the future.
Teymour Mohammadi
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to assess the sign and magnitude of the nonlinear effects of main socio-economic variables as well as the financial development index(measured by private credit to GDP ratio) on the environmental pollution. Specifically, the interaction of the socio-economic variables with financial ...
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The aim of this paper is to assess the sign and magnitude of the nonlinear effects of main socio-economic variables as well as the financial development index(measured by private credit to GDP ratio) on the environmental pollution. Specifically, the interaction of the socio-economic variables with financial development as a threshold variable in affecting CO2 emission is studied. In this respect the PSTR(Panel Smooth Transition Regression) technique is applied to a panel-data set for 16 middle income countries (including Iran) during the period 1970-2013.It is found that output level and energy use have positive significant effect on CO2 emission on the whole but their effects at higher levels of financial development decrease and increase respectively i.e. financial development has provided motivations for shifting to eco-friendly technologies on the whole but has not been effective for applying fuel efficient technologies . The effect of population on CO2 emission at higher levels of financial development, intensifies . As to the effect of financial development ,it has a positive significant effect on pollution with a threshold level of 34 percent for financial development index i.e. up to this point ,the effect of financial development on the increase of pollution, rises at an increasing rate
