Content
text
article
2019
eng
Iranian Journal of Economic Studies
Shiraz University
2322-1402
8
v.
1
no.
2019
https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_5622_820f436e8f07e5b509dc9e4297fbdf2b.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22099/ijes.2019.5622
The Effects of Oil Price Shocks on Discretionary Fiscal Policy in Selected OPEC Countries: Panel Structural Vector Autoregressive
Marzieh
Dindar Rostami
statistical center of Iran,Tehran, Iran.
author
Shamsollah
Shirinbakhsh
Faculty of Social and Economic, Alzahra University, Tehran, Iran.
author
Zahra
Afshari
Faculty of social and Economic, Alzahra University, Tehran, Iran.
author
text
article
2019
eng
The present study was aimed to investigate the effects of oil price shocks on discretionary fiscal policies in selected OPEC countries during 1980-2015. In this regard, the heterogeneous dynamic reaction to structural shock was examined using Panel Structural Vector Autoregressive (PSVAR) technique. Based on the findings, the effect of oil price shocks on discretionary fiscal policy was positive in short-run but ineffective in long-run. In addition, the oil price shocks caused an increase in inflation and government expenditure and a decrease in the economic growth in selected OPEC countries according to the Resource Curse phenomenon. Moreover, as variance decomposition showed, the government expenditure and economic growth have the most effect on discretionary policy changes. The effect of discretionary fiscal policy on economic growth in selected OPEC countries was negative, contrary to the Keynesian theory and the results of some other studies. Because discretionary fiscal policies play a major role in decisions of the countries mentioned above, the results also showed that a limitation in the government authority in OPEC countries would come into conflict with the decrease in economic growth and production fluctuation.
Iranian Journal of Economic Studies
Shiraz University
2322-1402
8
v.
1
no.
2019
7
25
https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_5029_f935e1240c5aa8e0b9a9e118074a1233.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22099/ijes.2018.30257.1470
The Effect of Property Rights on Entrepreneurship:Evidence from Some Factor-driven, Efficiency-driven, and Innovation-driven Countries
Ali Hussein
Samadi
Department of Economics, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran.
author
Sara
Togha
Department of economics, Shiraz university, Shiraz, Iran.
author
text
article
2019
eng
Entrepreneurship is influenced by many factors and environments such as institutions. Institutions have an important role to play in the individual's tendency toward necessity and opportunity entrepreneurship. The purpose of this paper was to examine the impact of institutional quality (property rights) on opportunity and necessity entrepreneurship. The results, based on unbalanced panel data from 2005 to 2015, showed that property rights did not have a significant effect on the opportunity entrepreneurship in the factor-driven group while it had a negative impact on necessity entrepreneurship. In the efficiency-driven group, protecting property rights would provide the perfect context for opportunity entrepreneurship and reduce necessity entrepreneurship, but in the innovation-driven group, strengthening property rights increased both opportunity and necessity entrepreneurship. These results indicate that the impact of property rights on (opportunity- and necessity-) entrepreneurship depends on the level of economic development of countries.
Iranian Journal of Economic Studies
Shiraz University
2322-1402
8
v.
1
no.
2019
27
51
https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_5181_f807b9aec34b9c9943c86cc5c98c322e.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22099/ijes.2019.31027.1492
Forecasting Industrial Production in Iran: A Comparative Study of Artificial Neural Networks and Adaptive Nero-Fuzzy Inference System
Afsaneh
Kazemi Mehrabadi
Facolty of Economic,University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran.
author
Vahid
Taghinezhad Omran
Facolty of Economic,University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran.
author
Mohammad
Valipour Khatir
Facolty of Economic,University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran.
author
Saeed
Rasekhi
Facolty of Economic,University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran.
author
text
article
2019
eng
Forecasting industrial production is essential for efficient planning by managers. Although there are many statistical and mathematical methods for prediction, the use of intelligent algorithms with desirable features has made significant progress in recent years. The current study compared the accuracy of the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Adaptive Nero-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) approaches to assess the current state and predict the future state of industrial production. The seasonal dataset comprised the labor force, capital stock, human capital, trade openness, liquidity and credit financing to the industrial sector as input variables and value added of industrial production as the output variable for the period of 1988 to 2018. The dataset was used to forecast industrial production for Seasons of the year 2019 and 2020. The results showed that, while both are appropriate tools for forecasting industrial production, ANFIS had a lower the Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) than ANN. The findings of the research indicate that ANFIS is more effective in forecasting industrial production, which can help policymakers in planning and creating an effective strategy for the future.
Iranian Journal of Economic Studies
Shiraz University
2322-1402
8
v.
1
no.
2019
53
68
https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_4878_febd819f96d8fcd70e74205b8279c0b5.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22099/ijes.2018.28706.1438
The Impacts of Monetary Policy on Macroeconomic Variables Assuming the Collateral Constraint
Hadi
Keshavarz
Department of economics, Persian gulf university, bushehr , Iran
author
Hojat
Parsa
Department of Economics, Persian Gulf University, Bushehr, Iran
author
text
article
2019
eng
This study aimed to examine the effects of monetary policy on macroeconomic variables with regard to the collateral constraint. For this purpose, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) was developed for Iran’s economic status. Two scenarios were considered as to account for the behavior of the central bank. In the first scenario, the monetary rule is modeled according to the GDP gap and inflation. In the second scenario that is modeled by macro-prudential rule, in addition to the GDP gap and inflation, it is also the central bank responses to the housing price gap that contributes to a steady state. An examination of the impulse response functions in the two scenarios indicated that the monetary shock increased production and inflation. A monetary shock has a positive impact on the consumption of patient households (lenders) and a negative effect on impatient households’ (borrowers) consumption. The collateral constraint was assumed to cause the effects of shocks to be continued on both groups. A comparison between the two scenarios indicated that if the central bank responds to the housing price deviation, in addition to the GDP gap and inflation, the effectiveness of the monetary policy will be strengthened.
Iranian Journal of Economic Studies
Shiraz University
2322-1402
8
v.
1
no.
2019
69
90
https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_5209_830be43c00e849dac5d6ea21af7d1518.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22099/ijes.2019.31442.1508
The Modeling and Comparison of GMDH and RBF Artificial Neural Networks in Forecasting Consumption of Petroleum Products in the Agricultural Sector
Mojtaba
Abbasian
Faculty of Economic, Chabahar University, Chabahar, Iran
author
Ali
Sardar Shahraki
Department of Economic, University of Sistsn and Baluchestan, Zahedan,Iran
author
Javad
shahraki
Department of Economic, University of Sistsn and Baluchestan, Zahedan,Iran
author
text
article
2019
eng
Energy plays a significant role in today's developing societies. The role of energy demands to make decisions and policy with regard to its production, distribution, and supply. The vital importance of energy, especially fossil fuels, is a factor affecting agricultural production. This factor has a great influence on the production of agricultural products in Iran. The forecast of the consumption of oil products by the agricultural sector can help managers and planners to adopt sound management practices for their consumption. Presently, artificial neural networks are regarded as a powerful tool for the analysis and modeling of nonlinear relationships. The present study employed GMDH and RBF artificial neural networks to estimate the consumption of oil products by the agricultural sector. The underpinning parameters were selected to include the value added to the fixed price, rural population, agricultural land area, agricultural mechanization (tractor), and the consumption rate of oil products, electricity, price of oil products, and total energy use by the agricultural sector for the period of 1967-2017. The comparison of MSE, MAE, and MAPE for the GMDH and RBF models showed that the GMDH neural network was highly capable of modeling the energy consumption of the agricultural sector.
Iranian Journal of Economic Studies
Shiraz University
2322-1402
8
v.
1
no.
2019
91
105
https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_5021_afe15c0244f306882f7fbe8cb94b0c5c.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22099/ijes.2018.29049.1444
The Determinants of the Mode of Informal Transport Chosen in North Central City of Ilorin, Nigeria
Ahmed
Yakubu
Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Ilorin, Nigeria
author
Mohammed Adebayo
Ojuolape
Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Ilorin, Nigeria
author
Jemeel
Sanni
Department of Economics, University of Ilorin, Kwara State, Nigeria
author
text
article
2019
eng
Transportation is a necessity if the day-to-day economic activities of the society must move on. There are different modes of informal transport available in Nigeria. This study evaluated the determinants of the modal choice of informal transport among commuters in North central city of Ilorin, Nigeria. The study used primary data generated through a structured questionnaire administered to 100 commuters randomly selected in Ilorin metropolis. The study used a multinomial logit model for data analysis. The results showed that earnings and household size were the core determinants of the choice of informal transport mode. The study concluded that different informal transport modes available to the commuters gave them the opportunity to make choices based on their income and the transport cost in Ilorin metropolis, Nigeria.
Iranian Journal of Economic Studies
Shiraz University
2322-1402
8
v.
1
no.
2019
107
118
https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_5269_5d6eed73b31f9ae809d9b356f6b63bd6.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22099/ijes.2019.31386.1506
An Empirical Analysis of Strategic Competition and Exchange Rate Pass-Through
Saeed
Rasekhi
Department of Economics, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran
author
Zahra
Sheidaei
Department of Economics, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran
author
text
article
2019
eng
The aim of this article is to study the firm-level pricing behavior based on the firm’s competitive strategy through the exchange rate pass-through. Using Iranian export price microdata, we provide new empirical evidence on how firm’s exchange rate pass-through depends on firm’s strategic decisions of competition. After classifying firms in two groups based on their competitive strategies, we show that firms involving in strategic complements pass more exchange rate movements to export prices than firms with strategic substitutions. Furthermore, firms in strategic substitutions tend to increase their export volume significantly more than the firms in strategic complements as a result of the depreciation of exchange rate.
Iranian Journal of Economic Studies
Shiraz University
2322-1402
8
v.
1
no.
2019
119
136
https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_5315_dfa2d6cf47647d6ad3b116fb75747ea0.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22099/ijes.2019.31929.1530
The Success Factors of Developing Countries' Transition to a Learning Economy: Evidences from Iran by a Grounded Theory Approach
Behnam
Abdi
Faculty of Management, Imam Ali Officer University, Tehran, Iran.
author
Seyyed Hamid
Khodadad Hosseini
Faculty of Management and Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
author
text
article
2019
eng
An outstanding feature of the contemporary world is the rapid economic, technological, social, and political changes marked by a high level of uncertainty. For surviving in this complex and constantly changing economy, successful transition to a learning economy is a necessity for developing countries. This research was aimed to investigate the factors which played a role in the developing countries’ successful transition to a learning economy. Furthermore, according to evolutionary economics, countries are path-dependent, i.e. the differences in structures and institutions of an economy give each economic system its specific nature that is illustrated in the particular challenges each country face in its transformation to a learning economy. Hence, based on the pieces of evidence from Iran, this inductive, exploratory, and qualitative research, using a grounded theory approach and a follow-up quantitative analysis based on survey data, led to the development of a model that can be used to analyze the success factors which contribute to this transition. The findings showed that in terms of the ‘paradigm model’, transitional thinking as casual condition, ICT, social capital and macro-economic conditions as intervening conditions, policy institution as central category, government, university and industry interactions, learning firms, collaborative learning, improved research and education system, and regional development as strategies were factors that could lead to a learning economy.
Iranian Journal of Economic Studies
Shiraz University
2322-1402
8
v.
1
no.
2019
137
161
https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_5333_e3b763eb98c9c4131160ecab82c96df0.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22099/ijes.2019.31565.1512
Interbank Market Failure and the Effects of the Basel III Regulations in a DSGE Model for Iran
Marzieh
Pirahmadi
Faculty of Social Sciences and Economics, AL Zahra University, Tehran, Iran.
author
Zahra
Afshari
Faculty of Social Sciences and Economics, AL Zahra University, Tehran, Iran.
author
Mehdi
Sarem
Economic Research and Policies, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Tehran, Iran.
author
text
article
2019
eng
In order to facilitate transactions among banks, the interbank market has been established in Iran since 2008. The primary objective of this market is to eliminate banking system liquidity deficiencies at a rate chosen by the Central bank of Iran. The importance of this rate is that it affects market interest rates through its effects on banks’ balance sheets. Banks’ balance sheets are also influenced by banking regulation, such as Basel regulations; thus, this study was aimed to investigate the effects of the interbank market in Iran by imposing Basel III regulations on the banking system. For this purpose, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) was designed that included the interbank market. The structural parameters of the designed model were estimated using the Bayesian method and the quarterly data on the period 2008-2015. Afterward, the effect of a positive interbank innovation on the economy’s dynamics was examined. The results showed that an increase in the interbank rate led to instability in the economy. It was concluded that an increase in the liquidity and capital adequacy requirement, as mentioned in the Basel III regulations, would reduce the negative effects of interbank shocks on macroeconomic variables and the economy would naturally become more stable.
Iranian Journal of Economic Studies
Shiraz University
2322-1402
8
v.
1
no.
2019
163
183
https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_5513_6fcaf178af05853170afe1188ee9a87b.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22099/ijes.2019.33834.1577
The Dynamics of Exchange Market Pressure and Inflation in Iran: Regime Switching Approach
Sayed Yahya
Abtahi
Accounting and economic dep. islamic azad university, yazd.iran
author
Elham
Amrollahi Bioki
Department of Economic , Science and Research branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
author
text
article
2019
eng
This study was an attempt to analyze the dynamic reaction of the exchange market pressure (EMP) to different states of the foreign exchange market and inflation in the Iranian economy during 1988:4-2017:4. To this end, the EMP index was calculated using Edwards’s (2002) and Kumah’s (2007) formulae. By considering inflation as the threshold variable and using Threshold Vector Autoregressive (TVAR) model, the results showed that lagged variables had no significant effects on EMP in a low inflation regime, but inflation had significant effects on EMP in a high inflation regime. The results of using the Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive (MS-VAR) model showed that in EMP and INF equations, the autoregressive coefficients in all lags and in both regimes were significant; this emphasizes the stability of the estimated VAR model. Based on the results of the MS-VAR equations, the results of the Granger Causality Test showed that when the EMP switched to a high regime, the inflation would have a significant impact on the EMP, but in the regimes where the EMP was at a low level, the inflation was not the cause of the EMP. EMP in low inflation regimes could also affect inflation while EMP was not the cause of inflation in high inflation regimes. Therefore, the policymakers should note that increasing EMP, even in low inflation regimes, can lead to pressure on prices. On the other hand, an increase in the foreign reserves causes the EMP to switch to a high regime; then, the inflationary pressures at any level of the inflation rate can exacerbate the exchange market pressure, and policymakers would be unable to control the currency market. Thus, if the EMP is controlled, the effects of inflation on the EMP will be discontinued, and this is a key point for policymakers.
Iranian Journal of Economic Studies
Shiraz University
2322-1402
8
v.
1
no.
2019
185
206
https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_5524_786ddc9d563800608519218967028bdf.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22099/ijes.2019.34098.1585
Persian Abstracts
text
article
2000
eng
Iranian Journal of Economic Studies
Shiraz University
2322-1402
8
v.
1
no.
2000
https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_6102_09a0c643b07d76b33fed975ef280a1d3.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22099/ijes.2640.6102