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1 بهینه‌سازی پرتفوی مبتنی بر پیش‌بینی برای سهام گروه‌های وابسته به نفت در ایران با استفاده از روش‌های داده کاوی Prediction-Based Portfolio Optimization Model for Iran’s Oil Dependent Stocks Using Data Mining Methods https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_5560.html 10.22099/ijes.2020.34367.1595 1 This study applied a prediction-based portfolio optimization model to explore the results of portfolio predicament in the Tehran Stock Exchange. To this aim, first, the data mining approach was used to predict the petroleum products and chemical industry using clustering stock market data. Then, some effective factors, such as crude oil price, exchange rate, global interest rate, gold price, and S&P 500 index, were used to estimate each industry index using Radial Basis Function and Multi-Layer Perceptron neural networks. Finally, by comparing the validation ratios in a bullish market using K-Means, SOM, and Fuzzy C-means clustering algorithms, the best algorithm was employed to predict indicators for each industry. The sample was collected between December 15, 2008, and April 25, 2018. The results revealed that the Multi-Layer Perceptron algorithm had the highest accuracy and was the best option for portfolio predicament. However, the Fuzzy C-means algorithm produced the best clusters. Practical results showed that Sepahan oil and Kharg petrochemical stocks were the most important stocks in the short term while Kharg petrochemical, Fannavaran petrochemical, and Tehran oil refinery stocks made higher contributions in a stock portfolio in the medium- or long-term. 0 هدف اصلی این تحقیق استفاده از یک مدل بهینه‌سازی پرتفوی مبتنی بر پیش‌بینی برای انتخاب پرتفوی سهام گروه‌های وابسته به نفت در بازار بورس تهران است. برای این منظور، ابتدا با استفاده از داده‌های خوشه‌بندی شده بازار سهام و مبتنی بر رهیافت داده‌کاوی، سهام فرآورده‌های نفتی و صنایع شیمیایی پیش‌بینی شده است. سپس، با استفاده از عوامل موثر بر تغییرات شاخص هر گروه مانند قیمت نفت خام، نرخ ارز، نرخ بهره‌ جهانی، قیمت جهانی طلا و شاخص S&P500 شاخص هر صنعت با استفاده از الگوریتم‌های شبکه عصبی MLP و RBF تخمین زده شده و در نهایت با مقایسه عملکرد هر یک از الگوریتم‌ها، بهترین الگوریتم برای پیش‌بینی رفتار شاخص هر صنعت شناسایی شده است. در ادامه با استفاده از الگوریتم‌های خوشه-بندی K-Means، SOM و FCM شرکت‌های موجود در این دوصنعت از لحاظ نسبت‌های مالی خوشه‌بندی شده و با بهترین الگوریتم سهام مناسب از هرگروه شناسایی شده است. نتایج تحقیق بیانگر آن است که الگوریتم MLP ازدقت بالاتری برخوردار است. همچنین الگوریتم FCM بهترین خوشه‌ها را تولید می‌کند. نتایج تجربی نشان می‌دهد، سهام پتروشیمی سپاهان و خارگ در کوتاه‌مدت و پتروشیمی خارگ و فناوران و پالایشگاه نفت تهران بیشترین بازده را در پرتفوی در افق میان‌مدت و بلندمدت دارد. 225 252 محمد صیادی Mohammad Sayadi Faculty of Economics, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran. 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1 نظریه برابری قدرت خرید در کشورهای منطقه MENA : آزمون ریشه واحد کوانتیل The Theory of Purchasing Power Parity in MENA Countries: The Quantile Unit Root Test https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_5549.html 10.22099/ijes.2020.33571.1570 1 This paper examines the theory of purchasing power parity aboutthe exchange rate of the dollar with local currencies in MENAcountries - the Middle East and North Africa - using a unit root testestablished on the quantile auto regressive model during the period1980-2017. This test, like other unit root tests, uses auto regressivemodel, unlike other methods that emphasize the mean of thedependent variable, this test employees different variables orquantiles for estimating the regression. If the theory of purchasingpower parity is in place, the real exchange rate will be stationary.According to the results of quantile unit root test, the real exchangerate for dollar in all countries except the four countries ofMorocco, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Jordan has a unit root and isnot stationary. Therefore, except for the four countries mentioned,the theory of purchasing power parity is not true in other studiedcountries. This result could be due to the difference inmacroeconomic conditions and less flexibility of the foreignexchange system in these countries compared to developedcountries. 0 این مقاله آزمون نظریه برابری قدرت خرید در مورد نرخ مبادله دلار با واحدهای پول محلی در کشورهای عضو MENA- کشورهای خاورمیانه و شمال آفریقا - با استفاده از آزمون ریشه واحد بر اساس مدل خود رگرسیون کوانتیل در دوره زمانی2017-1980 مورد بررسی قرار می دهد. این آزمون، همانند سایر آزمون های پایایی، از مدل خود رگرسیون استفاده می کند، ولی برای برآورد این رگرسیون برخلاف سایر روش ها که بر میانگین متغیر وابسته تاکید دارند، از چندک ها یا کوانتیل های متغیر مزبور استفاده می نماید. اگر نظریه برابری قدرت خرید برقرار باشد، نرخ ارز واقعی پایا خواهد بود. مطابق یافته آزمون ریشه واحد کوانتیل، نرخ ارز واقعی برای دلار در تمام کشورها به جز چهار کشور مراکش، بحرین، عربستان و اردن دارای ریشه واحد بوده و پایا نمی باشد. بنابراین به جز چهار کشور مزبور در سایر کشورهای مورد بررسی نظریه برابری قدرت خرید صادق نمی باشد. این نتیجه می تواند به دلیل تفاوت شرایط کلان اقتصادی و انعطاف پذیری کم تر نظام ارزی در این کشورها در مقایسه با کشورهای توسعه یافته باشد. 253 263 سید علی پایتختی اسکویی Seyyed Ali Paytakhti Oskooe Department of Economics, Tabriz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, Iran Iran oskooe@yahoo.com احسان شفیعی Ehsan Shafei , Department of Economics, Tabriz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, Iran Iran ehsanshafei@gmail.com نظریه برابری قدرت خرید آزمون ریشه واحدمدل خود رگرسیون کوانتیل کشورهای خاورمیانه و شمال آفریقا Benbouziane, M and A. Benamar, 2006. The Purchasing Power Parity in The Maghreb Countries: A Nonlinear Perspective, http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13853/.##Bahmani-Oskooee, M. 1998. Do exchange rates follow a random walk process in Middle Eastern countries? Economics Letters, 58, 339–344.##Bahmani-Oskooee, M and M. Kandil, 2007. Testing the PPP in the non-linear STAR Framework: Evidence from MENA Countries, Scientific Journal of Administrative Development Vol.5.##Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Chang, T., Chen, T. H., and H. W. Tzeng, 2016. Quantile unit root test and the PPP in Africa. Applied Economics, 49(19), 1913-1921##Bahmani-Oskooee, M., and O. Ranjbar, 2016. Quantile unit root test and PPP: evidence from 23 OECD countries. Applied Economics, 48(31), 2899-2911.##Drine, I and C. Rault, 2008. Purchasing Power Parity for Developing and Developed Countries. What can we Learn from Non-Stationary Panel Data Models?, CESifo Working Paper No. 2255.##Kalyoncu, H., Kula,F and A. Aslan, 2010. The Validity of Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis in Middle East, Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 4.##Kalyoncu, H., Aslan, A. and F. Kula, 2011. Purchasing Power Parity In Mena Revisited: Empirical Evidence in the Presence of Endogenously Determined Break Points, Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 24:1, 1-12.##Koenker, R., and Z. Xiao, 2004. Unit root quantile autoregression inference. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 99(467), 775-787.##Koenker, R., and Z. Xiao, 2006. Quantile autoregression. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 101(475), 980-990.##Narayan K. and B.C. Prasad, 2005. The validity of purchasing power parity hypothesis for eleven middle eastern countries, Review of Middle East Economics and Finance 3, 135–149.##

1 بررسی رفتار مالیاتی مودیان بخش مشاغل: رهیافت اقتصاد رفتاری Investigating the Behavior of Individual Business Taxpayers: Behavioral Economics Approach https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_5548.html 10.22099/ijes.2020.33336.1566 1 In Direct Tax Act, penalties and incentives are two strategies for realization of the expected tax revenues. In this study the interaction between individual businesses taxpayers' behaviors and National Tax Administration is investigated by using prospect theory which is based on behavioral economics approach. For this purpose, the structure of the tax compliance of the mentioned taxpayers is evaluated via the changes in penalty and incentive rates. In this way, a special questionnaire regarding the items of individual businesses sector of Direct Tax Act was designed for tax compliance evaluating and the results obtained using Bayesian Hierarchical method. The results indicate that the investigated individual business taxpayers, at all income levels were more sensitive toward incentive rates, so that this result can be useful for tax policymakers. 0 در ساختار قانون مالیاتهای مستقیم، جرایم و تشویقها دو راهکارهای برای تحقق درآمدمالیاتی پیش بینی شده است. در این تحقیق با استفاده از تئوری چشم انداز که مبتنی بر رهیافت اقتصاد رفتاری است، اثر متقابل رفتار مؤدیان بخش مشاغل و سازمان امور مالیاتی بررسی شده است. بدین منظور، ساختار تمکین مالیاتی مودیان مذکور با استفاده از تغییرات نرخ جرایم و تشویقها سنجش شده است. در این راه، پرسشنامه ای ویژه با توجه به موارد مندرج دربخش مشاغل قانون مالیات های مستقیم، برای ارزیابی تمکین مالیاتی (پرداخت یا عدم پرداخت مالیات) طراحی شد و نتایج با استفاده ازروش بیزین سلسله مراتبی بدست آمد. نتایج حاکی از آن است که مؤدیان مورد بررسی در تمامی سطوح درآمدی نسبت به تغییرات اعمال شده در نرخ تشویق حساسیت بیشتری نشان میدهند که این نتیجه میتواند در جهتدهی به سیاست گذاریهای دستگاه مالیاتی مفید باشد 265 281 یگانه موسوی جهرمی Yeganeh Mousavi Jahromi Department of Economics, Faculty of Management, Economics & Accounting, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran Iran yeganehmj@gmail.com سحر دهقان Sahar Dehghan National Tax Administration Iran dehghan4000@gmail.com اقتصاد رفتاری تمکین مالیاتی جرایم مشوق ها -        Abdoli. 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1 سیاست های پولی و مالی بهینه با تاکید بر خروج تورمی از رکود در ایران: رویکرد الگوهای تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policies for a Non-Inflationary Exit from Stagnation in Iran: A DSGE Approach https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_5547.html 10.22099/ijes.2020.35291.1620 1 The purpose of this paper is to investigate the optimal monetary and fiscal policies with emphasis on a non-inflationary exit from economic stagnation in Iran. In the first stage, Iran’s economy has been modeled in the form of a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model (NK-DSGE). After modeling and extracting the system of equations, the structural parameters of the model have been estimated by using seasonal data from 1989 to 2016 and also the Bayesian approach. The results show that monetary and fiscal expansionary policies increase production though they are associated with inflation. In the second stage, the optimal monetary and fiscal rules have been extracted from a social loss function, and accordingly the conditions of a non-inflationary exit from stagnation have been investigated. The results of the simulation show that the optimal monetary policy cannot by itself lead to the exit of the economy from stagnation without inflation. However, if this policy is applied along with an optimal fiscal policy, a non-inflationary exit from economic stagnation can be achieved. 0 هدف از این مقاله ، بررسی سیاست های بهینه پولی و مالی با تأکید بر خروج غیر تورمی از رکود اقتصادی در ایران است. در مرحله اول ، اقتصاد ایران در قالب یک مدل تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی (NK-DSGE) مدل سازی شده است. پس از مدل سازی و استخراج سیستم معادلات، پارامترهای ساختاری مدل با استفاده از داده های فصلی سال 1989 تا 2016 و همچنین رویکرد بیزی محاسبه شده است. نتایج نشان می دهد که سیاست های انبساطی پولی و مالی هر چند که تولید را افزایش می دهد، اما با تورم همراه هستند. در مرحله دوم ، قواعد پولی و مالی بهینه از یک تابع زیان اجتنماعی استخراج شده است و بر این اساس شرایط خروج غیر تورمی از رکود بررسی شده است. نتایج شبیه سازی نشان می دهد که سیاست پولی بهینه نمی تواند به خودی خود منجر به خروج اقتصاد از رکود بدون ایجاد تورم شود. اما اگر این سیاست به همراه سیاست مالی بهینه اعمال شود ، می توان شاهد خروج غیر تورمی از رکود اقتصادی بود. 283 314 ایمان روستا Iman Rousta Department of Economics, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran. Iran i.rousta@gmail.com ابراهیم هادیان Ebrahim Hadian Department of Economics, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran. Iran ehadian@rose.shirazu.ac.ir علی حسین صمدی Ali Hussein Samadi Department of Economics, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran. ایران asamadi@rose.shirazu.ac.ir پرویز رستم زاده Parviz Rostamzadeh Department of Economics, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran. Iran parvizrostamzadeh@shirazu.ac.ir سیاست پولی و مالی بهینه الگوهای تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی اقتصاد ایران 1-        Adam, K (2011). Government debt and optimal monetary and fiscal policy, European Economic Review, 55(1), 57 – 74. DOI: 10.3386/w17319##2-        Al-shawarby, S., & El Mossallamy, M. (2019). Monetary-fiscal policies interactions and optimal rules in Egypt. Review of Economics and Political Science, 4(2), 138-157.##3-        Barsky, R., B., and Kilian, l. (2001). Do We Really Know That Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 16, 137-198. 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DOI: 10.7916/D8S75S91##10-    Dixit, A., and Lambertini, L. (2003). Symbiosis of Monetary and Fiscal Policies in a Monetary Union. The Journal of International Economics, 60, 235-247. DOI: 10.1016/s0022-1996(02)00048-x##11-    Farazmand, H., Ghorbannejad, M., and PourJavan, A. (2013). Determine the optimal monetary and fiscal policy rules in economy of Iran. The Quarterly Journal of Economic Research and Policies, 21(67), 69-88.##12-    Friedman, M. (1969). The Optimum Quantity of Money, and Other Essays. Chicago: Aldine Pub. Co.##13-    Gali, J (2007). Monetary policy, Inflation and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to New Keynesian Economics, New Jersy, Princeton University Press.##14-    Gali­, J. and Monacelli, T. (2008). Optimal monetary and fiscal policy in a currency union. Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, 76(1), 116-132. DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2008.02.007##15-    Glain, P. (2007). The Optimal Monetary Policy Rule for the European Central Bank. Department of Economics, University of Pisa.##16-    Ireland, P. (2004). A Method for Taking Models to the Data. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, 28(6), 1205-1226. DOI: 10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2007-4##17-    Jafari Samimi, A., and Tehran chian, A. M., (2004). The effect of optimal monetary and fiscal policies on major macroeconomic indicators in Iran: An application of optimal control theory. Journal of Economic Research (Tahghighat- E- Eghtesadi), 65, 213-242.##18-    khani gharieh gapi, N., sahabi, B., azizi, F., and sabagh kermani, M. (2014). Identification of Stagflation Causes in Iran: A Threshold Error Correction Method. The Quarterly Journal of Economic Modeling, 7(24), 19-35.##19-    Kydland, F., E., and Prescott C., E. (1977). Rules Rather than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans. Journal of Political Economy, 85(3), 473-492. DOI: 10.1086/260580##20-    Mankiw, G. N. (1985). Small Menu Costs and Large Business Cycles: A Macroeconomic Model of Monopoly. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 100(2), 529-537. DOI: 10.2307/1885395##21-    McCallum, B (1989). Targets, Indicators, and Instruments of Monetary Policy. NBER Working Papers 3047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.##22-    Motavaseli M., Ebrahimi I., Shahmoradi A., and Komijani A. (2011). A New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Model for an Oil Exporting Country. QJER, 10 (4), 87-116.##23-    Nitzan, J. (1998). Differential accumulation: Towards a new political economy of capital. Review of International Political Economy, 5, 169–216. DOI: 10.1080/096922998347543##24-    Pajouyan, J. (2016). Public Sector Economic (Taxes). Tehran: publisher of Jungle.##25-    Roger, B. (1981). The proper medicine for stagflation. Technology in Society, l3, 45-62. DOI: 10.1016/0160-791X(81)90012-9##26-    Rotemberg, J., J. (1982). Sticky Prices in the United States. Journal of Political Economy, 90(6), 1187-1211. DOI: 10.1086/261117##27-    Schmitt, G., S., and Uribe, M. (2004). Optimal fiscal and monetary policy under sticky prices. Journal of Economic Theory, 114, 198-230. DOI: 10.1007/s40797-016-0038-7##28-    Schorfheide, F. (2000). Loss function-based evaluation OF DSGE models. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 15, 645-670. DOI: 10.1002/jae.582##29-    Snowdon, B., Vane, H. R., and Wynarczyk, P. (1994). A Modern Guide to Macroeconomics: An Introduction to Competing Schools of Thought. Aldershot, Hants, England: E. Elgar Pub.##30-    Tavakolian, H. (2012). A New Keynesian Phillips Curve in a DSGE Model for Iran. Journal of Economic Research (Tahghighat- E- Eghtesadi), 47(3), 1-22.##31-    Tavakolian, H., and Sarem, M. (2016). DSGE models in DYNARE (modeling, Solution and Estimation for Iran). Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran,Monetary and Banking Research Institute press.##32-    Tayebi, S. K., Zamani, Z., and Malek Hosseini, S.H. (2015). The reaction of production and foreign trade to exchange policy for exit of economy from stagnation without inflation. The Journal of Financial Economy, 10(34), 1-32.##33-    Taylor, J (1993).  Discretion versus policy rules in practice. Carnegie – Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 39, 195 – 214.##34-    Uhlig, H. (1999). A Toolkit for Analyzing Nonlinear Dynamic Stochastic Models Easily. Tilburg University - Center for Economic Research - Discussion Paper 95-97.##35-    Walsh, C. E. (2010). Monetary Theory and Policy. Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press, third edition, London.##

1 یارانه‌های صادراتی استراتژیک تحت محصولات متمایز Strategic Export Subsidies under Product Differentiation https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_5669.html 10.22099/ijes.2020.35423.1623 1 This paper focuses on strategic trade policy in the form of export subsidies in Cournot duopoly structure for differentiated goods. Export subsidies affect social welfare in both static and dynamic situations , and the aim of this paper is to analyze and compare the welfare effects of export subsidies in one-period and multi-period games in differentiated goods markets. To analyze the welfare effects of export subsidies, a two-stage game of complete but inperfect information is considered. In the first stage, two governments determine the amount of export subsidies and in the second stage, two firms determine the product level. The results show that, given that the firms’ competitiveness do not differ so much, export subsidies by both governments increase the firms’ profits and decrease social welfare of both countries. In an infinitely repeated game with different discount factors for both countries, and by adopting trigger strategy, we create some conditions, in which both governments commit free trade. However, if the competitiveness of one firm is so greater than the other, free trade using trigger strategy is not stable and the country with more competitive firm has incentive to deviate. 0 این مقاله بر سیاست تجاری استراتژیک در قالب یارانه‌های صادراتی در ساختار انحصار دوجانبه کورنو برای محصولات متمایز تمرکز می‌کند. یارانه‌های صادراتی در هر دو حالت ایستا و پویا بر رفاه اجتماعی اثر می‌گذارند و هدف این مقاله تحلیل و مقایسه اثرات رفاهی یارانه‌های صادراتی در بازی‌های یک‌دوره‌ای و چنددوره‌ای در بازار محصولات متمایز می‌باشد. برای تحلیل اثرات یارانه‌های صادراتی، یک بازی دومرحله‌ای با اطلاعات تمام اما ناقص درنظر گرفته شده است. در مرحله اول، دو دولت مقدار یارانه صادراتی را تعیین نموده و در مرحله دوم، دو بنگاه سطح محصول را تعیین می‌کنند. نتایج نشان می‌دهند که با فرض وجود اختلاف ناچیز رقابت‌پذیری بنگاه‌ها، یارانه‌های صادراتی توسط هردو دولت، سود بنگاه‌ها را افزایش اما رفاه اجتماعی دو کشور را کاهش می‌دهند. در یک بازی تکراری نامحدود با فرض عوامل تنزیل متفاوت برای دو کشور، و با اتخاذ استراتژی ماشه، شرایطی را مهیا کرده‌ایم که در آن هردو دولت به تجارت آزاد پایبند می‌شوند. اما اگر رقابت‌پذیری یکی از بنگاه‌ها خیلی بیشتر از دیگری باشد، تجارت آزاد با استفاده از استراتژی ماشه پایدار نبوده و کشور با بنگاه رقابت‌پذیرتر، انگیزه برای انحراف دارد. 315 334 یونس برومند Younes Brumand Department of Economics, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran Iran y.brumand@yahoo.com کیومرث شهبازی Kiumars Shahbazi Department of Economics, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran Iran k.shahbazi@urmia.ac.ir سیاست تجاری استراتژیک یارانه‌های صادراتی محصولات متمایز تعادل نش بازی تکراری Brander, J. (1995). Strategic Trade Policy. InG. Grossman and K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics (3). Netherland: North-Holland.##Brander, J. (1998). Rationales for Strategic Trade and Industrial Policy. In P. Krugman (ed.), Strategic Trade Policy and the New International Economic. Massachusetts: The MIT Press,##Brander, J., & Spencer, B. (1983). Strategic Commitment to R&D: The Symmetric Case. Bell Journal of Economics, 140, 225-35. DOI:10.2307/3003549.##Brander, J., & Spencer, B. (1985). Export Subsidies and International Market Share Rivalry. Journal of International Economics, 18, 83-100. DOI:10.1016/0022-1996(85)90006-6.  ##Collie, D. (1993). Profit-Shifting Export Subsidies and the Sustainability of Free Trade.  Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 40, 408-419. DOI:10.1111/j.1467-9485.1993.tb00663.x.##De Meza, D. (1986). Export Subsidies and High Productivity: Cause or Effect?. Canadian Journal of Economics, 19, 347-350.##Dutta, P. (1999). Strategies and Games: Theory and Practice. Massachusetts: The MIT Press. ##Eaton, J., & Grossman, G. (1986). Optimal Trade and Industrial Policy under Oligopoly. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 101, 383-406. DOI: 10.2307/1891121.##Fudenberg, D., & Tirole, J. (1991). Game Theory. Massachusetts: The MIT Press.##Gaudet, G., & Salant, S. (1991). Increasing the Profits of a Subset of Firms in Oligopoly Models with Strategic Substitutes. American Economic Review, 81, 658-65.##Gibbons, R. (1992). Game Theory for Applied Economists. Princeton: Princeton University Press.##Halland, J., & Kind, H. (2008). R & D Policies, Trade and Process Innovation. Journal of International Economics, 74, 170-87. DOI:10.1016/j.jinteco.2007.04.001.##Kondo, H. (2013). International R & D Subsidy Competition, Industrial Agglomeration and Growth. Journal of International Economics, 89, 225-33. DOI:10.1016/j.jinteco.2012.04.004.##Krugman, P. (1986). Strategic Trade Policy and the New International Economics. 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1 فرایند توسعه کسب وکارنوآورانه در حوزه گردشگری پزشکی در ایران The Process of Developing an Innovative Medical Tourism Business in Iran https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_5671.html 10.22099/ijes.2020.33886.1579 1 The aim of this paper was to investigate the processes of organizational innovation in medical tourism businesses. Specifically, this research aimed to answer: ―What is the process of developing medical tourism businesses in a developing country like Iran?‖ For this purpose, a grounded theory approach was used. In-depth interviews were conducted with fifteen medical tourism entrepreneurs who had experienced the above mentioned process. Analyzing the structure of values and interactions of entrepreneurs with others through their interviews led to the formation of an intermediate theory. The pattern obtained from this study shows that the main category that led to innovations among the studied medical tourism businesses was entrepreneurs’ tendency to create entrepreneurial activities, that is an innovative initiative. Based on our findings, should an innovative entrepreneur be affected by intermediate and environmental conditions, he or she introduces specific strategies to effectively carry out entrepreneurial activities that are discussed in this paper. 0 هدف از مقاله حاضر بررسی فرایند نوآوری سازمانی در کسب وکارهای گردشگری پزشکی است. به ویژه هدف این پژوهش پاسخ به این سوال است که فرایند توسعه کسب وکارهای نوآورانه در حوزه گردشگری پزشکی در کشور درحال توسعه ای مانند ایران چیست؟ بدین منظور نظریه برخاسته از داده مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. مصاحبه های عمیقی با پانزده نفر از کارآفرینان گردشگری پزشکی انجام شد که در زمینه نوآوری تجربه داشتند. تحلیل داده ها منجر به شکل گیری نظریه میانی شد. الگو به دست آمده از نتایج تحلیل نشان می دهد که پدیده اصلی که منجر به نوآوری در میان کسب وکارهای مورد مطالعه شد، تمایل کارآفرینان برای فعالیت های کارآفرینی است که یک اقدام نوآورانه است. یافته های پژوهش نشان داد که عوامل واسطه ای و شرایط محیطی باعث می شود کارآفرینان استراتژی های خاصی را انتخاب می کند تا اقدامات کارآفرینانه را به صورت موثر انجام دهد. 335 348 طیبه نیک رفتار Tayebeh Nikraftar Business Department, Faculty of Entrepreneurship, University of Tehran,Tehran, Iran. 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1 الگوی توصیفی از اقتصاد مقاومتی: تحلیل گفتمان از سخنان رهبر معظم انقلاب اسلامی ایران A Descriptive Model of Resilient Economy: A Discourse Analysis of the Language Utilized by the Supreme Leader of Islamic Republic of Iran https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_5709.html 10.22099/ijes.2020.35850.1632 1 This investigation is an endeavor to appraise the language of Resilient economy aiming at modeling it discursively for the first time in Iran. In this vein, postulating the thematic analysis proposed by Ary et al. (2010) as the analytical framework, this study integrated the concepts utilized in the discourse of Resilient economy extracted from various materials, articles, excerpts, interviews, and questionnaires through diverse qualitative techniques such as open, axial, and selective codifications. Moreover, to select a subset of common concepts and remove the redundant ones, factor analysis was applied as a quantitative technique. The findings elucidated two major theoretical views, i.e. macroscopic and microscopic. Macroscopic view accounts for the themes of history and philosophy behind Resilient economy, while microscopic view illuminates four themes of requirements, principles, objectives, and application procedures, which altogether comprised a model describing Resilient economy in the Iranian context. In the denouement, it was concluded that Resilient economy is the essence of Islamic and monotheistic economy where justice, fairness, democracy and knowledge shine as its premises, conducive to bolstering independence, flourish, innovation, entrepreneurship, and constant success and growth. Parenthetically, the study proposed some implications for economics teachers and discourse analysts at the end. 0 - 349 373 سید محمد علی سوزنده فر Seyyed Mohammad Ali Soozandehfar Department of Teaching English as a Foreign Language (TEFL), University of Hormozgan, Bandar Abbas, Iran Iran soozandehfar@yahoo.com مرضیه سوزنده فر Marzieh Souzandehfar Department of Translation Studies, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Jahrom University, Jahrom, Fars, Iran Iran mzsouzandeh@gmail.com تحلیل گفتمان اقتصاد مقاومتی ایران Allen, P. and Pholsward, R. (1988). The development of a diagnostic reading test for EAP students of economics. In M. L. Tickoo (ed.) ESP: State of the art. (Anthology Series 21) Singapore, SEAMO Regional Language Centre.##Arabi, H. (2010). Manifestation of naming the five recent years in the definition of Resilient economy. Keihan Newspaper, News Code: 4089.##Ary, D., Jacobs, L. C., and Sorensen, C. (2010). Introduction to Research in Education. 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1 شناسایی و اولویت‌بندی شاخص‌های مشارکت عمومی- خصوصی در صنعت آب و فاضلاب ایران با استفاده از الگوریتم‌های داده‌کاوی Identification and Prioritization of Public-Private Partnership Indicators in Iran’s Water and Wastewater Industry via Data Mining Algorithms https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_5713.html 10.22099/ijes.2020.35590.1625 1 The restrictions of government resources and the recent alterations in the economy have prompted government agencies to employ the capacities of private sector in all infrastructures. In this regard, a variety of financing methods, including the participatory models, have been applied for many years in the water and wastewater industry of Iran. The aim of this study is to identify and prioritize the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) indicators in the water and wastewater industry of Iran via machine learning techniques. To this end, after collecting, preparing and preprocessing the data, weighted indexing techniques including information gain and Gini index were utilized to prioritize the PPP factors. The results indicated that 93% of the indicators were effective in predicting the success of the projects. To compare the two methods, the precision of Naïve Bayes and Random Forest classifiers were taken into account and the information gain method yielded more reasonable findings with one percent difference. The evaluation of indicators elucidated that "complaints about service quality," "contract type," and "Conventional tariffs" revealed a huge impact on the success of collaborative projects. Among the 15 indicators, eight were directly pertinent to the project financing which is the main concern in this industry. 0 محدودیت منابع دولتی، لزوم استفاده از ظرفیت‌های بخش خصوصی را به یک ضرورت تبدیل نموده است. در این راستا استفاده از انواع روش‌های تأمین منابع مالی ازجمله مدل‌های مشارکتی، سالیانی است که در صنعت آب و فاضلاب در حال استفاده می‌باشد. هدف این پژوهش مرور ادبیات و اولویت‌بندی شاخص‌های مشارکت عمومی- خصوصی در صنعت آب و فاضلاب با استفاده از تکنیک‌های داده‌کاوی می‌باشد. به‌منظور تحقق این امر، پس از جمع‌آوری، آماده‌سازی و پیش‌پردازش داده، از تکنیک‌های شاخص وزن دهی شامل شاخص سود اطلاعاتی و شاخص جینی جهت استخراج فاکتورهای مشارکت عمومی و خصوصی استفاده شده است. ارزیابی شاخص‌ها، گزارش داد که ۹۸ درصد شاخص‌ها در پیش‌بینی شکست و یا موفقیت پروژه‌ها تأثیر دارند. برای مقایسه دو روش انتخاب ویژگی از دقت دسته‌بندهای جنگل تصادفی و بیز ساده استفاده شد. نتایج پژوهش مشخص کرد که شکایات مربوط به خدمات، قالب قراردادی و تعرفه‌های متفاوت تأثیر بسیار زیادی در موفقیت و یا شکست پروژه‌های مشارکتی دارند. در بین 15 شاخص کلیدی موفقیت پروژه های مشارکتی این صنعت، 8 شاخص آن به طور مستقیم با مسائل مربوط به تامین مالی طرح ها در ارتباط میباشند و این امر بیانگر این است که همچنان دغدغه اصلی در این صنعت، تامین مالی طرح ها میباشد. 375 396 ملیحه اسکندری Malihe Eskandary College of Management and Accounting, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran. Iran eskandary@nww.ir محمد تقی تقوی فرد Mohammad Taghi Taghavifard College of Management and Accounting, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran. Iran dr.taghavifard@gmail.com ایمان رئیسی وانانی Iman Raeesi Vanani College of Management and Accounting, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran. Iran imanraeesi@atu.ac.ir سروش قاضی نوری Soroush Ghazi Noori College of Management and Accounting, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran. Iran ghazinoori@atu.ac.ir مشارکت عمومی- خصوصی سرمایه‌گذاری شاخص کلیدی عملکرد صنعت آب و فاضلاب داده‌کاوی Abdul-Aziz, A.R., (2001). Unraveling of BOT scheme: Malaysia's Indah water konsortium. Journal of construction engineering and management, 127(6), 457-460.##Akintoye, A., (2003). Achieving best value in private finance initiative project procurement. Construction Management and Economics, 21(5), p. 461-470.##Böhl, C.G.P. (2007). Development of a knowledge based decision support system for private sector participation in water and sanitation utilities. Oldenbourg Industrieverlag, 189.##Brune, N.G., Garrett, & Kogut, B. (2004). The International Monetary Fund and the global spread of privatization. IMF Staff Papers, 195-219.##Commission, E. (2003). Guidelines for successful public-private partnerships. DG Regional Policy.##Company, i. (2009). National Wastewater Finanving and investment strategy Report.##Delmon, J. (2015). Creating a Framework for Public-Private Partnership Programs.##Dorian, J.P. (2006). Central Asia: A major emerging energy player in the 21st century. Energy Policy, 34(5), 544-555##Golabchi, M., Nourzaee. (2015). Selecting the best PPP method in rail projects by using AHP methods. Journal of  Transportation Engineering, No.6##Hall, D., Lobina. E. (2005). The relative efficiency of public and private sector water. PSIRU Reports.##Han, J., Jian, P., & Kamber, M. (2011). 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1 توسعه گردشگری غذا مبتنی بر آمیخته بازاریابی (مورد مطالعه: خراسان رضوی) Culinary Tourism Development Based on Marketing Mix Strategy : The Case of Khorasan Razavi Province https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_5715.html 10.22099/ijes.2020.33944.1582 1 Food is considered as an integral part of tourism experience, and culinary tourism is a relatively new concept in the tourism industry. Culinary tourism deals with cookery, cuisines, and food ways of a country, region, or locale as a unique and memorable activity. The present study was aimed to prioritize factors influencing culinary tourism development using marketing mix strategy in Khorasan Razavi province, Iran. This applied research was performed by descriptive–survey method. The population consisted of experts in tourism and hotel management as well as experts in food industry, cookery, and restaurant management. Using stratified random sampling, first 200 participants were selected to fill the questionnaire, in order to identify effective factors, and then, 10 experts were asked to rank these factors. Confirmatory factor analysis and Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process were employed to analyze the data. Findings of the study suggested that, among the four marketing mix strategies, price-related factors with a normal weight of 0.033 ranked first, and in terms of sub criteria related to study dimensions, matching prices to product quality and branding of local food products with a weight of 0.095 and 0.093, respectively were identified as the top factors influencing culinary tourism development. 0 غذا یک جنبه جدایی ناپذیر از تجربه گردشگری است و گردشگری غذا شاخه‌ای نسبتا جدید در صنعت گردشگری است. این نوع از گردشگری، به تجربه صرف غذا یا خوردنی‌ها و سبک آشپزی کشور، منطقه یا حوزه جغرافیایی خاصی به عنوان یک فعالیت منحصر به فرد و به یاد ماندنی می‌پردازد. جهت توسعه گردشگری غذا و کسب منفعت از این حوزه بایستی شاخص‌های مورد نظر در این حوزه شناسایی شوند. هدف از این مطالعه تعیین ارجحیت عوامل موثر بر توسعه گردشگری غذا با رویکرد آمیخته بازاریابی در استان خراسان رضوی است. این پژوهش به لحاظ هدف، کاربردی است و بر اساس روشِ توصیفی-پیمایشی انجام شده است. جامعه آماری این تحقیق شامل کلیه صاحب‌ نظران حوزه گردشگری و هتلداری و همچنین متخصصین صنعت غذا، آشپزی و رستوران داری در استان خراسان رضوی هستند. با استفاده از روش تصادفی طبقاتی، تعداد 200 نفر از جامعه مذکور در مرحله اول برای شناسایی عوامل موثر، پرسشنامه‌ها را تکمیل کردند و در مرحله دوم 10 نفر از خبرگان بمنظور ارجحیت این عوامل مشخص شدند. جهت انجام تجزیه و تحلیل‌ها از دو تکنیک تحلیل عاملی تاییدی و تحلیل فرایند سلسله مراتبی فازی استفاده شد. یافته‌های پژوهش حاکی از آن است از بین 4 معیار یعنی آمیخته اصلی بازاریابی،‌ عوامل مربوط به قیمت با وزن نرمال 330/0 در اولویت اول و در زیرمعیارهای مربوط به ابعاد پژوهش، دو شاخص تناسب قیمت‌ها با کیفیت محصولات غذایی و برندسازی محصولات غذایی محلی به ترتیب با اوزان 095/0 و 093/0 به عنوان ارجح ترین عوامل موثر بر توسعه گردشگری غذا در استان خراسان رضوی مشخص شدند. 397 419 یونس وکیل الرعایا Younos Vakil Alroaia Assistant Prof. and Chairman, Entrepreneurship and Commercialization Research Center, Department of Management, Semnan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Semnan, Iran Iran y.vakil@semnaniau.ac.ir زهرا ذوالفقاری Zahra Zolfaghari MSc in Tourism Management, Faculty of Tourism, Semnan University , Semnan, Iran Iran zahra.zo1991@gmail.com محمد رضا ستوده Mohammad Reza Sotoudeh Faculty of Economics & Management, University of Semnan, Semnan, Iran Iran mrsotoudeh2015@gmail.com "گردشگری غذا" "توسعه گردشگری" ‌" آمیخته بازاریابی گردشگری" "خراسان رضوی" Bertella, G. and Vidmar, B. (2019), “Learning to face global food challenges through tourism experiences”, Journal of Tourism Futures, Vol. 5 No. 2, pp. 168-178.##Boniface, P. (2003) Tasting tourism: Travelling for food and drink. Aldershot: Ashgate. Bramwell, B. (1994). Rural tourism and sustainable rural tourism. Journal of Sustainable Tourism 2 (1 & 2), 1–6.##Booms, Bernard H. and Mary Jo Biter (1981), "Marketing strategies and organization structures for service firms," In Marketing of Services, James H. Donnelly and William R. George, eds. Chicago: American Marketing Association, 47-52.##Boomsma, A. (1982).The robustness of LISREL against small sample sizes in factor analysis models. In K. G. Jöreskog & H. Wold (Eds.), Systems under Indirect Observation: Causality, Structure, Prediction (Part 1, pp. 149–173). Amsterdam: North-Holland.##Du Rand GE, Heath E (2006). Towards a framework for food tourism as an element of destination marketing. Current Issues In Tourism 9:206– 34.##Farajzadeh, Z., Esmaeili, A. (2017). The welfare effects of rising imported food prices in Iran. Iranian Journal of Economic Studies, 5(2), 189-208. Doi: 10.22099/ijes.2017.23795.1297##Global Report on Food Tourism. (2015).World Tourism Organization UNWTO.##Habibi, A.; Izadyar, S. & Sarafrazi, a (2015). Fuzzy Multi-criteria Decision Making, Rasht, Katibeh GilPublisher. (In Persian)##Halkier, H. (2012). Local food for International tourists explorative studies of perceptions of networking and interactions in two holidays home destinations in North Jutland, Denmark.##Hall, C.M. and Sharples, E. (2003).The consumption of experiences or the experience of consumption? An introduction to the tourism of taste. In C.M. Hall, E. Sharples, R. Mitchell, N. Macionis and B. Cambourne (eds) Food Tourism Around The World: Development, Management and Markets (pp. 1–24). Oxford: Butterworth Heinemann##Hashimoto, A., & Telfer, D. (2003). Positioning an emerging wine route in the Niagara Region: Understanding the wine tourism market and its implications for marketing. Journal of Travel and Tourism Marketing, 14(3/4), 61–76.##Henderson, J. C. (2009). Food tourism reviewed. British Food Journal, Vol. 11 No. 4, pp. 317-326##Horng, J.-S. And C.-T. Tsai (2010) ‘Government Websites for Promoting East Asian Culinary Tourism: A Cross-National Analysis’, Tourism Management 31(1): 74–85.##Izadi, H. (2015). Culinary Tourism, an Opportunity for Sustainable Rural Development in Iran. Rural Studies, 6(1) 65-96.   ##Jazayeriyan, N. (2012). Factors Affecting Demands for Foods and Beverages of Shiraz According to the European Tourists (A Case Study: European Tourists Visiting Shiraz) . Master's Thesis. Supervisor: Hamid Zarghami Boroojeni, Faculty of Management and Accounting. Allameh Tabataba'i University.##Karim, S. (2006). Culinary tourism as a destination attraction: An empirical examination of the destination’s food image and information sources. PhD Thesis. Oklahoma State University, Oklahoma##Kivela, J., Crotts, J.C. (2005). Gastronomy Tourism. Journal of Culinary Science & Tourism, 4 (2-3), 39-55##Kotler, P., Bowen, J. T., & Makens, J. C. 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1 اندازه دولت و نابرابری شادی: رویکرد پانل آستانه ای Government Size and Happiness Inequality: A Threshold Panel Approach https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_5551.html 10.22099/ijes.2020.35323.1621 1 The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between government size and happiness inequality in a number of developing and developed countries during the period of 2002-2015 by threshold panel approach. To obtain robust results, we have applied the model in the Iran’s economy by time series data during the period of 1974-2016. The results in developing countries showed that in small governments, the government size had a diminutive effect on the inequality of happiness, but by passing the threshold and increasing the government's involvement in the economy, this variable had no significant effect on the happiness inequality. The same time series results were obtained for Iran’s economy, which has a small government size. In this group, the government size has a significant negative impact on happiness inequality and after that, it has a significant positive impact on happiness inequality. Developed countries showed completely different results, whereby the size of the government had a significant positive impact on inequality in small governments but in large governments, it did not have a significant effect on the inequality of happiness. 0 هدف از این مطالعه بررسی رابطه بین اندازه دولت و نابرابری شادی در تعدادی از کشورهای در حال توسعه و توسعه یافته در دوره 2015-2002 با رویکرد پانل آستانه است. همچنین ، برای بررسی بیشتر و به دست آوردن نتایج مستحکم، ما از مدل سری زمانی آستانه‌ای برای اقتصاد ایران در دوره زمانی 1395-1353 استفاده کرده ایم. نتایج در کشورهای در حال توسعه نشان داد که در رژیم کوچک دولت ، اندازه دولت تأثیر کاهشی بر نابرابری شادی می گذارد ، اما با عبور از آستانه و افزایش دخالت دولت در اقتصاد ، این متغیر تأثیر معنی داری بر نابرابری شادی ندارد . نتایج مشابهی برای سری زمانی اقتصاد ایران نیز بدست آمده است بطوریکه در رژیم دولت کوچک، اندازه دولت تأثیر منفی و معنی داری بر نابرابری شادی داشته و پس از آن ، تأثیر مثبت و معنی داری بر نابرابری شادی برجای گذاشته است. کشورهای توسعه یافته نتایج کاملاً متفاوتی را نشان دادند که به موجب آن اندازه دولت تأثیر مثبت و معنی داری بر نابرابری شادی در رژیم دولت کوچک داشته اما در رژیم دولت بزرگ، تأثیر معنی داری بر نابرابری شادی نداشته است. 421 439 ابراهیم زارع Ebrahim Zare Department of Economics, College of Economics and Management, Shiraz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Shiraz, Iran. Iran ebrahimzare.1398@gmail.com مهرزاد ابراهیمی Mehrzad Ebrahimi Department of Economics, College of Economics and Management, Shiraz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Shiraz, Iran. Iran mhrzad@yahoo.com عباس امینی فرد Abbas Aminifard Department of Economics, College of Economics and Management, Shiraz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Shiraz, Iran. Iran aaminifard@yahoo.com هاشم زارع Hashem Zare Department of Economics, College of Economics and Management, Shiraz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Shiraz, Iran. Iran hashem.zare@gmail.com اندازه دولت نابرابری شادی کشورهای در حال توسعه کشورهای توسعه یافته رویکرد آستانه ای Abounoori, E., & Nademi, Y. (2010). Government Size Threshold and Economic Growth in Iran.‏ International Journal of Business and Development Studies, 2(1), 95-108.##Afonso, A., Schuknecht, L., & Tanzi, V. (2010). Income Distribution Determinants and Public Spending Efficiency. The Journal of Economic Inequality, 8(3), 367-389.##Alois, P. (2014). 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Considering the Relationship between the Average of Happiness and Inequality of Happiness in MENA Countries, National Conference of Economics, Development Management and Entrepreneurship with the Approach of Protecting Iranian Goods, Sistan & Baluchestan Industrial Management Organization, https://www.civilica.com/Paper-EDME01-EDME01_098.html (In Persian). ##Graafland, J., & Lous, B. (2019). Income inequality, life satisfaction inequality and trust: a cross country panel analysis. Journal of Happiness Studies, 20(6), 1717-1737.##Hansen, B. E. (1992). The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 7(1), 61-82.##Hansen, B. E. (1999). Threshold Effects in Non-Dynamic Panels: Estimation, Testing, and Inference. Journal of Econometrics, 93(2), 345-368.‏##Jalili Kamju, S., Nademi, Y. (2019). The relationship between income inequality and happiness inequality: A case study of Iran. 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1 رژیم نرخ ارز شناور مدیریت شده و ارزیابی سیاستی برای ایران Managed Floating Exchange Rate Regime and Policy Evaluation for Iran https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_5546.html 10.22099/ijes.2020.33990.1583 1 Exchange rate fluctuations have a major role on business cycles. Due to this degree of importance, this paper analyzed the effects of managed floating exchange rate regime on dynamics of some macroeconomics variables of Iran. To do this, we design a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for Iran and then using quarterly data over 1989-2016 and Bayesian method, the structural parameters of the model have been estimated. By employing conditional forecasting, our results show that managed floating exchange rate regime, compared with fixed regime, brings more economic growth and at the same time, less speculative activities in money and exchange markets. Moreover, the results from variance decomposition reveal that exchange rate shocks are the most important shock in deriving business cycles and fluctuations of other variables. Based on these finding, we propose policymaker to choose managed floating exchange rate regime as its policy rule.     0 پویایی های نرخ ارز دارای یک نقش مهم در استخراج سیکل های تجاری کشورهای در حال توسعه است. به دلیل این درجه اهمیت، این مقاله اثرات رژیم نرخ ارز شناور مدیریت شده بر پویایی های برخی متغیرهای کلان ایران را بررسی می کند. بدین منظور، یک الگوی تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی برای اقتصاد ایران طراحی و برآورد شده و سپس با استفاده از داده های فصلی دوره 1395 - 1368 و روش بیزین، پارامترهای ساختاری مدل برآورد شده است. با بکارگیری پیش بینی شرطی، نتایج مدل نشان می دهد که رژیم نرخ ارز شناور مدیریت شده، در مقایسه با رژیم نرخ ارز ثابت، رشد اقتصادی بیشتری به همراه دارد و همزمان، فعالیت های سوداگری کمتری در بازارهای ارز و پول به همراه دارد. همچنین، نتایج حاصل از تجزیه واریانس آشکار می کند که شوک های نرخ ارز مهمترین شوک در استخراح سیکل های تجاری و نوسان های سایر متغیرها است. بر اساس این یافته ها، پیشنهاد مطالعه به سیاست گذاران این است که رژیک نرخ ارز شناور مدیریت شده را به عنوان قاعده سیاستی خود انتخاب کنند. 441 462 کیومرث سهیلی Kiomars Sohaili Department of Economics, , Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran. Iran ksohaili@razi.ac.ir علی رضا عرفانی Alireza Erfani Department of Economics, ,Semnan University, Semnan, Iran. Iran aerfani@semnan.ac.ir یوسف حیاتی Yousef Hayati Department of Economics, ,Semnan University, Semnan, Iran. Iran hayati.yousef@yahoo.com رژیم نرخ ارز مدلهای DSGE ارزیابی سیاستی پیش بینی شرطی Adolfson, M., & Laseen, S., & Linde, J., & Svensson, L. (2014), Monetary Policy Trade- offs in an Estimated Open Economy DSGE Model, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 42, 33- 49.##Agenor, R., & Prasad, E., and McDermott, C. (1999), Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries; Some Stylized Facts, IMF Working Papers 99/35.##Batini, N, and Gabriel, V, and Levine, P, and Pearlman, J. (2010). “A Floating versus managed exchange rate regime in a DSGE model of India,NIPE Working Papers, 31/2010, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.##Canzoneri, M., & Cumby, R., & Diba, B. 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1 طراحی الگوی شایستگی‌های مبتنی بر سوادهای جدید رهبری در حوزه اقتصادی - رویکرد تحلیل محتوای کیفی Designing a Competency Model Based on the New Leadership Literacies in the Economic Area: a Qualitative Content Analysis https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_5550.html 10.22099/ijes.2020.34030.1584 1 The current skills of leaders will not be enough to succeed in future. Future leaders should be equipped with new literacies. This study intend to generate the new pattern of the new leadership literacies of senior managers of economic areas.The method of research was qualitative content analysis and reference data of research included the books of Hames (2007) and Johansen (2017), which were completely studied. Unit of analysis was theme. The study findings included 184 basic themes in the top ten themes of literacy organizers: 1.’Networked Intelligence’: Adaptation through learning; 2.‘Futuring’: to cope better with complexity; 3.’Strategic Navigation’: helping to assure the long-term viability of the whole system; 4.’Deep Design’: continuous consciousness; 5.’Brand Resonance’: Viral forms of communication; 6.’Looking Backward from the Future’: Clarity; 7.’Voluntary Fear Engagement’: turning fear into something positive; 8.‘Leadership for Shape-Shifting Organizations’: liquid leadership; 9.’Being There When You’re Not There’: very skilled at choosing the best media for communicating, and 10.’Creating and Sustaining Positive Energy’: balancing their own personal energy. In the new era, administrators equipped with new literacies, would help them develop the organization, their subordinates, and respond to the environment and gain competitive advantage. 0 مهارت‌های فعلی رهبران برای موفقیت در آینده‌ پیش رو، کافی نخواهند بود. رهبران آینده باید مجهز به سوادهای جدید باشند. هدف این پژوهش، کشف الگوی سوادهای جدید رهبری مدیران ارشد حوزه‌های اقتصادی بود. روش پژوهش تحلیل محتوای کیفی و مرجع داده‌های پژوهش، کتاب‌های "پنج سواد رهبری جهانی" (هامس، 2007) و "سوادهای جدید رهبری" (یوهانسن، 2017) بود که به طور کامل و بر اساس واحد تحلیل مضامین، مطالعه شدند. یافته‌های پژوهش شامل 184 شایستگی‌ مبتنی بر 10 سواد رهبری می‎شد: "1.هوش شبکه‌ای" شامل یادگیری انطباقی و رهایی از مفروضات و باورهای نادرست؛ "2.آینده‌نگری" شامل تصمیم‌‌های ساختمند و سازگاری مطلوب با پیچیدگی، "3. هدایت‌گری راهبردی" شامل کمک به تضمین ماندگاری سیستم و پیوستگی تفکر با تصمیم‌سازی جمعی و هوشمندانه؛ "4.طراحی ژرف‌اندیشانه" شامل هوشیاری مستمر و تعامل در یادگیری مشارکتی، "5.طنین برند" شامل بهره‌برداری از سرمایه فکری مشتریان و ارتباط خودجوش و سازنده، "6.نگاه به آینده و عمل در حال" شامل آینده‌نگری شفاف و تبدیل تهدیدها به فرصت، "7.استقبال داوطلبانه از ترس" شامل تبدیل احساس ترس به احساسی مثبت و یادگیری از اشتباهات خود، "8.رهبری سازمان‌هایی با شکل متغیر" شامل رهبری سیال، سلسله‌مراتب منعطف، "9.حضور در عین عدم حضور" شامل توسعه برند شخصی و مهارت در انتخاب بهترین رسانه و "10.ایجاد و حفظ انرژی مثبت" شامل متعادل سازی انرژی شخصی و اجتناب از شخصیت‌های سمی. در عصر جدید تجهیز مدیران به سوادهای جدید رهبری، به آنان در توسعه و بالندگی سازمان، زیردستان و پاسخگویی به محیط و کسب مزیت رقابتی یاری می‌رساند. 463 493 مهدی محمدی Mehdi Mohammadi Faculty of Education & Psychology, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran Iran mmohammadi48@shirazu.ac.ir زهرا نورائی سالک Zahra Nouraie Salek Faculty of Education & Psychology, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran Iran nouraiesalek@gmail.com قاسم سلیمی Ghasem Salimi Faculty of Education & Psychology, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran Iran salimi.shu@gmail.com جعفر جهانی Jafar Jahani Faculty of Education & Psychology, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran Iran jjahani37@gmail.com سواد رهبری شایستگی اقتصاد سوادِ بیسوادی Alshuwairekh, Khaled N. 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