1 جنسیت و عوامل مؤثر بر کار کودک در ایران: کاربردی از IV-TOBIT Gender and the Factors Affecting Child Labor in Iran: an Application of IV-TOBIT Model https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_4545.html 10.22099/ijes.2017.25423.1334 1 In this paper we first intend to examine the probability of falling into the realm of child labor by using conditional probability theorem. Furthermore, we will compare the extent of each factor’s effect on boys and girls using a TOBIT regression model. Finally we will analyze aspects of Iran’s labor market to assess the future ahead of the children who work at present. As the results will show, the probability of not attending school conditional on being male is 0.081, whereas the same probability conditional on being female is 0.12. More probability scores are estimated in the paper. Moreover, the results from the TOBIT regression shows that in general boys are more affected than the girls by the same factors. Also, based on the macro statistics published by Iran’s Statistical Center, the graduation of numerous people from graduate schools combined with the low and slow rate of economic growth makes it quite difficult to find a decent work in the country. As a result, the skilled labor force will be content with accepting low wage jobs which are more suitable for the unskilled workers. Therefore, those who left school earlier in their lives will face several problems in the future. 0 در این مقاله ابتدا احتمال ورود به محدوده کار کودک با استفاده از قضیه احتمالات شرطی آزمون می‌شود. در ادامه، گستره اثر متغیرهای مؤثر بر کار کودک با استفاده از الگوی TOBIT بر دخترها و پسرها مقایسه می‌شود. در آخر ابعاد مختلف بازار کار ایران تحلیل شده تا آینده پیش روی کودکانی که در حال حاضر مشغول به کار هستند ارزیابی شود. همان طور که نتایج نشان می‌دهند، احتمال عدم ورود به مدرسه مشروط بر پسر بودن 081/0 است. در حالی که این احتمال به شرط دختر بودن 12/0 است. در متن مقاله احتمالات بیشتری برآورد شده‌اند. علاوه بر آن، نتایج الگوی توبیت نشان می‌دهد که در کل پسرها اثرپذیری قوی‌تری نسبت به دخترها از عوامل مشابه دارند. همچنین، مبتنی بر آمارهای کلان منتشر شده توسط مرکز آمار ایران، فارغ‌التحصیلی تعداد کثیری از افراد دانشگاهی در مقاطع تحصیلات تکمیلی در کنار نرخ رشد اقتصادی آهسته و اندک، یافتن کاری شایسته را در کشور به طور کامل دشوار می‌کند. در نتیجه، نیروی کار تحصیل‌کرده به پذیرش مشاغل با سطوح دستمزد پایین راضی می‌شود که بیشتر مناسب نیروی کار غیرماهر است. در نتیجه، آنهایی که مدرسه را در سال‌های ابتدایی عمرشان ترک کرده اند با مسائل متعددی در آینده روبرو می‌شوند. 7 28 تیمور محمدی Teimour Mohammadi Faculty of Economics, Allame Tabatabaie University, Tehran, Iran. ایران atmahmadi@gmail.com زهرا کریمی موغاری Zahra Karimi Moughari Department of Economics, Mazandaran University, Babolsar, Iran. ایران zakarimi@umz.ac.ir سهند ابراهیمی پورفائز Sahand Ebrahimi Pourfaez Department of Economics, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran. ایران s.ebrahimi@stu.umz.ac.ir کار کودک تناقض ثروت آکسیوم رفاه الگوهای توبیت بازار کار References##Bandara, A., Dehejia, R., & Lavie, S. (2014). Impact of income and non-income shocks on child labor, Working Paper No 118. Retrieved from United Nations University: http://www.wider.unu.edu/##Basu, K., & Van, P. H. (1998). The economics of child labor. American Economic Review, 88(3), 412-427.##Beegle, K., Dehejia, R. H., & Gatti, R. (2006). Child labor and agricultural shocks. Journal of Development Economics, 81(1), 80-96.##Beegle, K., Dehejia, R., Gatti, R., & Krutikova, S. (2008). The consequences of child labor: Evidence from longitudinal data in rural Tanzania. Washington, DC: World Bank.##Bhalotra, S., & Heady, C. (2003). Child farm labor: The wealth paradox. The World Bank Economic Review, 17(2), 197-227.##Binswanger, H. P., & McIntire, J. (1987). Behavioral and material determinants of production relations in land-abundant tropical agriculture. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 36(1), 73-99.##Cain, M. (1982). Perspectives on family and fertility in developing countries. Population Studies, 36(2), 159-175.##Dillon, A. (2012). Child labor and schooling responses to production and health shocks in northern Mali. Journal of African economies, 22(2), 276-299.##Dumas, C. (2007). Why do parents make their children work? A test of the poverty hypothesis in rural areas of Burkina Faso. Oxford Economic Paper, 59(2), 301-329.##Dumas, C. (2013). Market imperfections and child labor. World Development, 42(1), 127-142.##Dumas, C. (2015). Shocks and child labor, Working Paper No 458. Retrieved from Université de Fribourg: http://doc.rero.ch/.##Duryea, S., Lam, D., & Levison, D. (2007). Effects of economic shocks on children's employment and schooling in Brazil. Journal of development economics, 84(1), 188-214.##Ebrahimi-Pourfaez, S. (2012). The Status of Decent Work Indicators among Chosen Developing Countries. Master’s Thesis. Faculty of Economics. University of Mazandaran.##Ersado, L. (2005). Child labor and schooling decisions in urban and rural areas: Comparative evidence from Nepal, Peru, and Zimbabwe. World Development, 33(3), 455-480.##Fan, C. S. (2011). The luxury axiom, the wealth paradox, and child labor. Journal of Economic Development, 36(3), 25-45.##Kambhampati, U. S., & Ranjan, R. (2006). Economic growth: A panacea for child labor? World Development, 34(3), 426-445.##Keshavarz-Haddad, G., & Borhani, F. (2012). Bargaining in the Family and Time Allocation of Spouses: Case Study of the Effects of Gender on Individual Labor Supply in Iran. Journal of Economics Studies, (4)47, 155 – 177 [In Persian].##Keshavarz-Haddad, G., Nazarpour, M., & Seifi-Kafshgari, M. (2014). Child Labor among Iranian Households. Economic Policies, University of Mofid, 7(26), 125 – 143 [In Persian].##Kruger, D. I. (2007). Coffee production effects on child labor and schooling in rural Brazil. Journal of Development Economics, 82(2), 448-463.##Landmann, A., & Frölich, M. (2015). Can health-insurance help prevent child labor? An impact evaluation from Pakistan. Journal of Health Economics, 39(1), 51-59.##Lima, L. R., Mesquita, S., & Wanamaker, M. (2015). Child labor and the wealth paradox: The role of altruistic parents. Economics Letters, 130(1), 80-82.##Morduch, J. (1999). Between the state and the market: Can informal insurance patch the safety net? The World Bank Research Observer, 14(2), 187-207.##Pörtner, C. C. (2001). Children as insurance. Journal of Population Economics, 14(1), 119-136.##Ranjan, P. (2001). Credit constraints and the phenomenon of child labor. Journal of Development Economics, 64(1), 81-102.##Ravallion, M., & Chaudhuri, S. (1997). Risk and insurance in village India: Comment. Econometrica, 65(1), 171-184.##Tobin, J. (1958). Estimation of relationships for limited dependent variables. Econometrica, 26(1), 24-36.##Townsend, R. M. (1994). Risk and insurance in village India. Econometrica, 62(3), 539-591.##Zeldes, S. P. (1989). Consumption and liquidity constraints: An empirical investigation. The Journal of Political Economy, 97(2), 305-346.##

1 رفتار تورم در کشورهای اصلی منتشر کننده صکوک: استفاده از یک الگوی خطی-لگاریتمی بیزی Inflation Behavior in Top Sukuk Issuing Countries: Using a Bayesian Log-linear Model https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_4532.html 10.22099/ijes.2017.23169.1284 1 This paper focused on developing a model to study the effect of sukuk issuance on the inflation rate in top sukuk issuing Islamic economies at 2014‎. ‎For this purpose‎, ‎as the available sample size is small‎, ‎a Bayesian approach to regression model is used which contains key supply and demand side factors in addition to the outstanding sukuk volume as potential determinants of inflation rate‎. ‎In the suggested model‎, ‎inflation rate variable shows an apparent right skewness and the efficiency of log transformation for this variable is confirmed via Box-Cox approach‎. ‎To give Bayesian estimators of the regression parameters‎, ‎we have implemented an MCMC approach including 100,000 iterations in the WinBUGS software‎. ‎The results show that sukuk volume is a significant determinant of inflation in selected Islamic countries‎, ‎but only in ‎the ‎well-‎developed‎ capital market economies its increase could decline the rate of inflation and so sukuk could be used as a ‎‎‎policy instrument for controlling inflation‎. ‎Also the Bayesian estimation of the other parameters shows that increase of money growth and exchange rate growth lead to higher inflation rates‎. ‎ 0 این مقاله بر ارائه الگوئی به منظور مطالعه اثر انتشار صکوک بر نرخ تورم، در کشورهای اصلی منتشر کننده صکوک در سال 2014 متمرکز شده‌است. در این راستا، با توجه به اینکه حجم نمونه موجود کوچک است، از یک الگوی رگرسیونی بیزی استفاده شده است که در آن متغیرهای احتمالی اثرگذار بر نرخ تورم، عوامل اصلی طرف تقاضا و عرضه به همراه حجم صکوک منتشر شده هستند. در الگوی پیشنهادی متغیر نرخ تورم دارای چولگی راست است به نحوی که کارایی تبدیل لگاریتمی برای این متغیر با رویکرد باکس – کاکس تایید می‌شود. برای تخمین بیزی پارامترهای الگو، الگوریتم MCMC شامل تکرار 100،000 بار در نرم افزار WinBUGS بکار گرفته شده است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد حجم صکوک یک عامل تعیین کننده معنی دار برای نرخ تورم در کشورهای منتخب است. البته افزایش آن تنها در کشورهایی که بازار سرمایه توسعه یافته‌ای دارند موجب کاهش نرخ تورم می‌شود؛ زیرا در این کشورها صکوک می‌تواند به عنوان یک ابزار کنترل کننده تورم به کار گرفته شود. همچنین تخمین بیزی دیگر ضرایب الگو نشان می‌دهد افزایش رشد حجم پول و رشد نرخ بهره منجر به نرخ تورم بالاتر می‌شود. 29 46 حسن کیائی Hasan Kiaee Faculty of Islamic Studies and Economics, Imam Sadiq University, Tehran, Iran. ایران kiaee@isu.ac.ir صکوک نرخ تورم رویکرد بیزی مالیه اسلامی رگرسیون لگاریتمی – خطی References## Ayuniyyah Q., Beik I. S.‎, & ‎Arsyianti L. D.‎ (2013)‎. ‎Dynamic analysis of islamic bank and monetary instrument towards real output and inflation in Indonesia‎. ‎Proceeding of Sharia Economics Conference‎, ‎Hannover‎, ‎Germany‎, ‎154-162.##‎Box‎, ‎G‎. ‎E‎. ‎P‎. , & Cox‎, ‎D‎. ‎R‎. (1964). An analysis of transformations (with discussion)‎. ‎Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B‎, ‎26‎, ‎211–252‎. ‎##‎Campillo‎, ‎M‎., ‎& Miron‎, ‎J‎. ‎ A‎. (1997)‎. ‎Why Does Inflation Differ across Countries?, A selected paper in‎: ‎Reducing Inflation‎: ‎Motivation and Strategy‎, ‎University of Chicago Press‎, ‎ ‎335‎ - ‎362.‎##Damian, M.‎ ‎(2012)‎. ‎The impact of financial crisis upon the inflationary process in Romania‎. ‎International Journal of Business and Social Science, ‎3(‎10‎), 267-274.##Eftekhari-Mahabadi, S. , & Kiaee, H. (2015). Determinants of inflation in selected countries, Journal of Money and Economy, 10(2), 113-143. ‎##Friedman, M. (1963). Inflation: Causes and Consequences, Asia Publishing House, New York.##‎Gilks‎, ‎W‎. ‎R.‎, ‎Richardson‎, ‎D‎. ‎B.‎, ‎& Spiegelhalter‎, ‎D‎. ‎J‎. ‎(1996)‎. ‎Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice‎. ‎London‎: ‎Chapman &‎ ‎Hall‎. ‎##‎Hammermann‎, ‎F‎., & Flanagan‎, ‎M‎. ‎(2007). ‎What explains persistent inflation differentials across transition economies? Kiel Institute for the World Economy‎, ‎Working Paper No‎. ‎1373‎, ‎Germany‎. ‎##‎Hasin, Z.‎, & ‎Majid M. S. (‎2011)‎. ‎The importance of the islamic banks in the monetary transmission mechanism in Malaysia. ‎8th International Conference on Islamic Economics and Finance‎, ‎Center for Islamic Economics and Finance‎, ‎Qatar Faculty of Islamic Studies‎, ‎Qatar Foundation‎.##‎Kandil‎, ‎M‎., & Morsy‎, ‎H‎. ‎(2009)‎. ‎Determinants of inflation in GCC, ‎IMF Working Paper‎, ‎Middle East and Central Asia Department‎. ‎##‎Mohanty‎, ‎M‎. ‎S‎., ‎& Klau‎, ‎M‎. (2001). ‎What determines inflation in emerging market economies? BIS Papers 8‎. ‎##‎Ntzoufras‎, ‎I‎. ‎(2009). ‎Bayesian Modeling Using WinBUGS‎, ‎John Wiley & Sons‎. ‎##‎Sarwer M. S.‎, ‎Ramzan, M.‎, & ‎Ahmad W.‎ (‎2013). ‎Does islamic banking system contributes to economic development‎, ‎Global Journal of Management and Business Research, 13 (2)‎. ‎##‎Shahzad, A.‎, ‎Ahmed, T.‎, ‎& Rehman, K. ‎(2012). ‎Islamic financial system‎: ‎A system to defeat inflation‎, ‎Arabian Journal of Business and Management Review‎, ‎2‎(2), 69-72. ‎##‎Spiegelhalter‎, ‎D‎. ‎ J.‎, ‎Thomas‎, ‎A.‎, ‎Best‎, ‎N‎. ‎G.‎, & Lunn‎, ‎D‎. ‎(2003)‎. ‎Win‎- ‎BUGS User Manual‎, ‎Version 1.4‎, ‎MRC Biostatistics Unit‎, ‎available at www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/bugs‎. ‎##‎Stanton‎, ‎J‎. (‎2001). ‎Galton‎, ‎Pearson‎, ‎and the peas‎: ‎A brief history of linear regression for statistics‎ ‎instructors‎. ‎Journal of statistics Education, 9 (3)‎, [online]. ‎##Zaman K.‎, ‎Ikram, W.‎, ‎& Ahmed, M.‎ ‎(2010). ‎Impact of financial development on inflation‎: ‎Evidence from Pakistan (1974-2007). ‎Pakistan Journal of Social Sciences, ‎30‎(‎1), 31-44‎.##

1 انتقال نامتقارن اثر نرخ ارز بر شاخص قیمت واردات در ایران The Exchange Rate Asymmetric Pass-Through to Import Price Index: The Case Study of Iran https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_4707.html 10.22099/ijes.2018.19977.1243 1 The main objective of this paper is to investigate the asymmetric effects of exchangerate on Iranian import price index using quarterly time series data over the period 1990- 2011. For this purpose, positive and negative shocks of the exchange rate have been separated from each other using dummy variables and the effects of the size of the exchange rate shocks by determining a threshold.The empirical results indicate that the positive and negative shocks of the exchange rate both have positive and asymmetric effects on the import price index. The results show that the effects of negative shocks of the exchange rate on the imports price index is more than the positive shocks effect. In addition, the experimental findings of the research indicate that the effect of foreign exchange rate shocks size on the imports price is asymmetric and the effectiveness extent of smaller shocks is significantly more than that of bigger exchange rate shocks.Moreover, according to the results, the effects of positive and negative shocks based on the size of foreign exchange shocks (small & big) on the imports price is asymmetric and the results show that the effect of small negative shocks is more than big ones and also the effects of small positive shocks is more than big ones. 0 نتایج به دست آمده حاکی از آن است که شوک‎های مثبت و منفی نرخ ارز هر دو تأثیر مثبت و نامتقارن بر شاخص قیمت واردات دارد، به طوری که تأثیر شوک‌های منفی نرخ ارز بر شاخص قیمت واردات بیشتر از تأثیر شوک‌های مثبت می‌باشد. همچنین یافته های تجربی تحقیق دلالت بر این دارد که تاثیر سایز شوکهای نرخ ارز بر قیمت واردات نامتقارن بوده و میزان تاثیرگذاری شوکهای کوچکتر به طور معنی دار بیشتر از شوکهای ارزی بزرگتربوده است.همچنین، بر اساس نتایج حاصل از تجزیه اثرات شوکهای مثبت و منفی بر حسب سایز شوکهای ارزی(کوچک و بزرگ) بر قیمت واردات نامتقارن بوده و نتایج نشان می دهد که تاثیرشوک‌های منفی کوچک بیشتر از شوکهای منفی بزرگ بوده و نیز اثرات شوکهای مثبت کوچک یشتر از شوکهای مثبت بزرگتر می باشد. 47 64 حسین اصغرپور Hossein Asgharpour Department of Economics, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran. ایران asgharpourh@gmail.com الهام وفایی Elham Vafaei Department of Economics, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran. ایران elham.vafaei@yahoo.com حامد عبدالملکی Hamed Abdolmaleki Department of Economics, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran. ایران hamedab1986@gmail.com نرخ ارز شاخص قیمت واردات اثرات نامتقارن ایران References## Alvarez, R., Jaramillo, P., & Selaive, J. (2008). Exchange rate pass-through into import prices: The case of Chile. Working Paper, No.465, Central Bank of Chile.##Aron, J., Farrell, G., Muellbauer, J., & Sinclair, P. (2012). Exchange rate pass-through to import prices and monetary policy in South Africa. South African Reserve Bank Working Paper Research Department, WP/12/08.##Bandt, O. D., & Razafindrabe, T. (2014). Exchange rate pass-through to import prices in the Euro-area: A multi-currency investigation. International Economics, 138, 63–77.##Belke, A., Beckmann, J., & Verheyen, F. (2013). Exchange rate pass-through into German import prices–a disaggregated perspective. Conference Paper, Global Current Account Imbalances, No. F08-V1, German Economic Association.##Brun-Aguerre, R., Fuertes, A. M., & Phylaktis, K. (2012). Exchange rate pass-through into import prices revisited: What drives it? Journal of International Money and Finance, 31(4), 818-844.##Bussiere, M. (2007). Exchange rate pass-through to trade prices. The role of nonlinearities and asymmetries. ECB Working Paper, No. 822, Frankfurt, European Central Bank.##Byrne, J. P., Chavali, A. S., & Kontonikas, A. (2010). Exchange rate pass-through to import prices: Panel evidence from emerging market economies. Department of Economics, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.##Campa, J. M., & Linda, S. G. (2005). Exchange rate pass-through to import prices. Review of Economics and Statistics, 87(4), 679-690.##Campa J. M., Gonzalez-Minguez, J. M., & Sebastia-Barriel, M. (2006). Non-linear adjustment of import prices in the European Union. Documentos de Trabajo No. 0635, Banco de Espana, www.bde.es/informes/be/ docs/dt0635e.pdf.##Choudhri, E. U., & Hakura, D. S. (2012). The exchange rate pass-through to import and export prices: The role of nominal rigidities and currency choice. IMF Working Paper Institute for Capacity Development, WP/12/226.##Delatte, A. L., & Antonia, L. V. (20120. Asymmetric exchange rate pass-through: Evidence from major countries. Journal of Macroeconomics, 34(3), 833–844.##Elbejaoui, H. J. (2013). Asymmetric effects of exchange rate variations: An empirical analysis for four advanced countries. International Economics, 135–136, 29–46.##Enders, W. (2005). Applied Econometric Time Series. Iowa State University.##Goldberg, P. 1995. Product differentiation and oligopoly in international markets: The case of the U.S. automobile industry. Econometrica, 64, 413-430.##Kadiyali, V. (1997). Exchange rate pass-through for strategic pricing and advertising: An empirical analysis of the U.S. photographic film industry. Journal of International Economics, 43(3/4), 437-461.##Karoro, T. D., Aziakpono, M. J., & Cattaneo, N. (2009). Exchange rate pass-through to import prices in South Africa: Is there asymmetry? South African Journal of Economics, 77(3), 380–398.##Kilic, R. (2010). Exchange rate pass-through to import prices: Nonlinearity and exchange rate and inflationary regime. Department of Economics, Koch University, Rumeli FeneriYolu, Sarıyer, ˙Istanbul 34450 Turkey.##Lawrence, R. Z. (1990). U.S. current account adjustment: An appraisal. Brookings Paper on Economic Activity, 2, 343-382.##Lee, J. (2013). Exchange rate pass-through into export and import prices: A bounds testing analysis on the case of Korea. The Working Paper Seriespublishes original research of Bryant University faculty associated with the Center for Global and Regional Economic Studies, 2013-04.##Mann, C. (1986). Prices, profit margins, and exchange rates. Federal Reserve Bulletin, 72(6), 366-379##Mashhadi Mohammadi, H., Shakeri, A., & Mahmudzadeh, M. (2014). Effect of real exchange rate deviation on exports of steel industry in Iran. Journal of Economic Sciences, 8(28), 15-33 (in Persian).##Mozayani, A. H., & Yavari, K. (2015). The impact of currency fluctuations on trade sector of the country, Iranian Journal of Economic Research, 4(14), 89-107 (in Persian).##Mumtaz, H., Oomen, O., & Wang, J. (2006). Exchange rate pass-through into UK import prices, bank of England. Working Paper, No. 312, London.##Pedram, M., Shirinbakhsh, S., & Rezaei-Abyaneh, B. 2012. Investigating the asymmetric effects of exchange exchanges on the prices of exported goods, Journal of EconomicModeling Research. 9, 143-166 (in Persian).##Pollard, P. S., & Coughlin, C. C. (2004). Size matters: Asymmetric exchange rate pass-through at the industry level. University of Nottingham Research Paper 2004-13 and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper2003-029C.##Przystupa, J., & Wrobel, E. (2009). Asymmetry of the exchange rate pass-through: An exercise on the Polish data. University Library of Munich.##Rangasamy, L., & Farrell, G. N. (2002). Exchange rate pass-through and South African import prices. South African Reserve Bank Discussion Paper, No. DP/02/03.Pretoria: South African Reserve Bank.##Sameti, M., Khanzadi, A., & Yazdani, M. (2010). Investigating the hypothesis of asymmetric effects of exchange rate shocks on production and price levels (Case study of Iran), Journal of Money and Economics, 2(4), 35-57 (Persian).##Tekin, R., Baris, & Yazgan, M. E. (2009). Exchange rate pass-through in Turkish export and import prices. AppliedEconomics, 41, 2221-2228.##Webber, A. (2000). Newton’s gravity law and import prices in the Asia pacific. Japan and the World Economy, 12 (1), 71-87.##Wickremasinghe, G., & Silvapulle, P. 2004. Exchange rate pass-through to manufactured import prices: The case of Japan. International Trade, No. 0406006.##Xu, S., Zhang, H., & Atri, S. (2017). A comparative analysis of exchange rate pass-through in China, Euro zone and the U.S.: A vector error correction model. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 9(8), 51-65.##

1 الگو سازی و آزمون تجربی مسائل اطلاعات نامتقارن در قراردادهای اجاره اعیان و اشخاص (بر اساس نظریه قراردادها) Modelling and Experimental Testing of Asymmetric Information Problems in Lease and Hire Contracts (Based on Contract Theory) https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_4709.html 10.22099/ijes.2018.21842.1256 1 This article aims to study lease and hiring contract in the Iranian-Islamic setting and analyze the asymmetric information problem in these contracts. For doing this, we study the characteristics of lease and hiring contracts in Iran (real world experimental characteristics that recognized in other studies), using library method, then we mathematically model different aspects of asymmetric information (hidden information and hidden action) using contract theory. The result of model indicates that there is a list of optimal contracts in any lease or hiring transactions that can solve asymmetric information problems (adverse selection and moral hazard) by satisfying the participation and incentive compatibility constraints. Finally in the experimental analyses we calculate the optimal contract with hypothetical parameters using lingo software and illustrate that the main models provided for every transactions is solvable and the optimal contracts are obtainable. Experimental contracts shows that the lessor has to set security deposits of tenant type θL lower than tenant type θH and set higher monthly rent for him in lease contracts, and principal has to set wage of tenant type θL lower than tenant type θH and set higher length of contract for him in hiring contracts to solve asymmetric information problems. 0 - 65 86 مرتضی درخشان Morteza Derakhshan Department of Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran. ایران morteza.derakshan@yahoo.com میر هادی حسینی کندلجی MirHadi Hosseini Kondelaji Department of Economics, Arak University, Arak, Iran. ایران m-hosseinikondelaji@araku.ac.ir اجاره قرارداد استخدام نظریه قرارداد اطلاعات نامتقارن References## Akerlof, G.A. (1970). The market for "lemons": Quality uncertainty and the market mechanism. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 235-251.##Benjamin, J. D., Lusht, K. M., & Shilling, J. D. (1998). What do rental contracts reveal about adverse selection and moral hazard in rental housing markets? Real Estate Economics, 26(2), 309-329.##Bolton, P., & and Dewatripont, M. (2005). Contract Theory, Cambridge and London: MIT University Press.##Borgers, T., Krahmer, D., & Strausz, R. (2015). An Introduction to the Theory of Mechanism Design. Oxford University Press, USA.##Brousseau, E., Glachant J. M. (2002). The Economics of Contracts: Theory and Applications, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.##Johnson, J. P., & Waldman, M. (2003). Leasing, lemons, and buybacks. The RAND Journal of Economics, 247-265.##Johnson, J. P., & Waldman, M. (2010). Leasing, lemons, and moral hazard. Journal of Law and Economics, 53(2), 307-328.##Laffont J. J., & Martimort, D. (2001). The Theory of Incentives: The Principal-Agent Model, New Jersey: Princeton University Press.##Rasmusen, E. (2006). Game & Information: An Introduction to Game Theory, New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons.##Robberstad, B. (2005). Estimation of private and social time preferences for health in northern Tanzania. Social science & medicine, 61(7), 1597-1607.##Salanié, B. (2005). The Economics of Contracts: A Primer. MIT Press.##Shavell, S. (1979). On moral hazard & insurance. In Foundations of Insurance Economics pp. 280-301.##Stiglitz, J. E. (2006). Stability with growth: Macroeconomics, Liberalization and Development. Oxford University Press.##

1 شناسایی قاعده پولی پذیرفته شده توسط بانک مرکزی ایران Identifying the adopted Monetary Policy Rule by the Central Bank of Iran https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_4719.html 10.22099/ijes.2018.27577.1402 1 It is obvious that an optimal policy should consider main dimensions of the phenomenon that can affect the transmission mechanism of that policy. In an open economy, it is expected that variables of the foreign sector play important role in its economic behavior. Therefore, it needs that any optimal policy in an open economy to design in such a way which involves changes in the foreign sector. Due to this fact, this paper aims at assessing the monetary policy of Central Bank of Iran to find that whether this policy takes a right way or not. To do so, a DSGE model along with MCMC criteria are employed.The main result indicates that the Central Bank decision on monetary policy follows McCallum rule without any respond to exchange rate shocks. 0 هر سیاست بهینه بدون شک باید تمام عوامل موثر بر مکانیزم اثربخشی آن را مدنظر قرار دهد. مثلا در یک اقتصاد باز انتظار میرود متغیرهای مربوط به بخش خارجی که نقش مهمی در تحولات اقتصادی دارند در تدوین چنین سیاستهایی لحاظ گردند. با توجه به این واقعیت، مطالعه حاضر به دنبال بررسی موضوعی است تا مشخص گردد آیا بانک مرکزی ایران در تدوین قاعده پولی خود به این نکات توجه داشته است. به عبارت دیگر، بانک مرکزی ایران عملا چه قاعده و با در نظر گرفتن چه معیاری به تدوین سیاست پولی خود پرداخته است. برای دستیابی به این هدف، یک مدل DSGE و شاخص MCMC مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. نتایج کلی حاصل از این مطالعه نشان میدهد که بانک مرکزی ایران در تدوین سیاست پولی از قاعده مککالم بدون در نظر گرفتن متغیرهای موثر بر بخش خارجی اقتصاد از جمله نرخ ارز تبعیت نموده است. 87 107 رها پوراحمدی حقیقی Raha Pourahmadi Haghighi Departement of Economics, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran. ایران rpoorahmadi@gmail.com ابراهیم هادیان Ebrahim Hadian Departement of Economics, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran. ایران ehadian@rose.shirazu.ac.ir احمد صدرایی جواهری Ahmad Sadraei Javaheri Departement of Economics, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran. ایران sadraei@shirazu.ac.ir روح الله شهنازی Rouhollah Shahnazi Departement of Economics, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran. Iran rshanazi@rose.shirazu.ac.ir نرخ ارز قاعده پولی اقتصاد ایران References## Calvo, G. (1983). Staggered Prices in a Utility Maximizing Framework, Journal of Monetary Economics, 12(3), 383-398.##Fakhr-Hosseini, S. F. (2011). The Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of Monetary Business Cycle for Iran, Journal of Economic Modeling Research. 1(3), 1-28. [in Persian]##Fuhrer, J.C. (2000). Habit formation in consumption and its implication for monetary policy models, American Economic Review, 90, 367-390.##Gali, J, & Gertler, M. (1999). Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis, 44(2), 195-222.##Gali, J, & Monacelli, T. (2005). Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy, Review of Economic Studies, 72, 707–734.##Khiyabani, Nasser & Amiri, Hussein. (2012). Designing, an open dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to investigate the effect of oil shocks on macroeconomic variables. Quantitative Economics 9 (3), 25-59 [in Persian].##Lucas, R. (1976). Econometric Policy Evaluation: A Critique, Rochester- Carnegie Conference on Monetary Policy. 1,19-46.##Mimir, Y, & Sunel, E. (2015). External Shocks, Banks and Optimal Monetary Policy in an Open Economy, BIS Working Paper, No. 528.##Walsh, C. (2010). Monetary Theory and Policy, Third edition, Boston, MIT Press.##Wollmershauser, Timo. (2006). Should central banks react to exchange rate movements? An analysis of the robustness of simple policy rules under exchange rate uncertainty, Journal of Macroeconomics, 28, 493- 519.##

1 تحلیل اثرات خارجی تولید انرژی برق بر رشد ستانده بخشی و رفاه در ایران Analysis of Electricity Generation’s Externalities on Sectorial Output Growth and Welfare in Iran https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_4721.html 10.22099/ijes.2018.27858.1416 1 Environmental problems are one of the most challenging issues for the entire world and each country. In economic studies, environmental issues are analyzed as negative externalities. In this article, the negative externalities of electricity production on the output growth of different sectors and household’s welfare in Iran’s economy have been studied through price system using Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model empirically. In this regard, Iran’s Social Accounting Matrix of 2011 and GAMS software by introducing five scenarios related to environmental effects of electricity production have been used. The results show that firstly, the internalization of electricity production externalities reduces the output of agriculture and industry sectors in all scenarios, while the output of services will increase. Secondly, internalization of electricity production externalities increases total economy’s output and declines the household’s welfare. 0 یکی از مهمترین مشکلات در دنیای امروز، مشکلات زیست محیطی است. در مطالعات اقتصادی، مسائل زیست محیطی غالباً تحت عنوان اثرات خارجی منفی مورد بررسی قرار می گیرند. در این پژوهش، اثرات زیست محیطی تولید برق بر رشد ستانده در بخش های مختلف اقتصاد ایران و رفاه خانوار با استفاده از مدل تعادل عمومی قابل محاسبه،در قالب مکانیزم قیمت ها، مورد بررسی و تحلیل قرار گرفته است. به این منظور، با استفاده از ماتریس حسابداری اجتماعی سال 1390، تهیه شده توسط مرکز پژوهش های مجلس شورای اسلامی، و نرم افزار GAMS، بر پایه پنج سناریو تعریف شده این مطالعه صورت گرفته است. نتایج حاصل از مدل نشان می دهد که اولاً درونی سازی اثرات خارجی تولید برق، ستانده بخش های کشاورزی و صنعت را کاهش داده در حالی که ستانده بخش خدمات را افزایش داده است. ثانیاً درونی سازی اثرات خارجی تولید برق ستانده کل و رفاه خانواررا در اقتصاد ایران افزایش می دهد. 109 127 مجید مداح Majid Maddah Department of Economicss, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran. ایران majid.maddah@semnan.ac.ir محمدمهدی بریجانیان Mohammad Mehdi Berijanian Department of Economicss, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran. ایران mmberijanian@yahoo.com محمدصادق قاضی زاده Mohammad Sadegh Ghazizadeh Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran. ایران ghazizadeh.ms@gmail.com اثرات خارجی تولید برق رشد ستانده بخشی رفاه مدل تعادل عمومی قابل محاسبه References## Akpan, G. E., & Akpan, U. F. (2012). Electricity consumption, carbon emissions and Economic Growth in Nigeria. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 2(4), 292-306.##Amadeh, H., Ghafari, A., & Farajzadeh, Z. (2015). Analysis of environmental and welfare effects of energy subsidy reform application of computable general equilibrium model. Iranian Energy Economics Research, 4(13), 33-62 [in Persian].##Asiae, M., Khiabani, N., & Mousavi, B. (2012). The Environmental Effects of the Omission of Energy Carriers Subsidies in Iranian Manufacturing Sector, Iranian Energy Economics Research, 1(4), 1-24 [in Persian].##Burfisher, M. E. (2011). Introduction to Computable General Equilibrium Models, Translated by Bazzazan, F., & Soleymani-Movahhed, F. Tehran, Iran: Nashreney (in Persian).##Carneiro, P., & Ferreira, P. (2012). The economic, environmental and strategic value of biomass. Renewable Energy, 44(C), 17-22.##Dadgar, Y. (2012). Public Sector Economics, Ghom, Iran: Mofid University Publishing [in Persian].##Farber, S. (1998). Undesirable facilities and property values: A summary of empirical studies, Ecological Economics, 24(1), 1-14.##Foley, D., Rezai, A., & Taylor, L. (2013). The social cost of carbon emissions: seven propositions, Economics Letters, 121(1), 90-97.##Hosoe, N., Gasawa, K., & Hashimoto, N. (2010). Textbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modelling; Programming and Simulations, England: Palgrave Macmillan.##Jorli, M., Van Passel, S., Sadeghi, H., Nasseri, A., & Agheli, L. (2017). Estimating human health impacts and costs due to Iranian fossil fuel power plant emissions through the impact pathway approach. Energies, 10(12), 2136.##Khiabani, N. (2017). A dynamic CGE model for evaluation of energy policies: evidence from Iran. Economic Research, 21(69), 1-46 [in Persian].##Krekel, C., & Zerrahn, A. 2017. Does the presence of wind turbines have negative externalities for people in their surroundings? Evidence from well-being data. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 82(C), 221-238.##Lane, G. (2009). Understanding the Economic and Social Cost of Electricity Production (The advantages of Small-Scale Nuclear Reactors), College Station, Texas, U.S.A.##Leung, D.Y.C., & Yang, Y. (2012). Wind energy development and its environmental impact. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Review, 16(1), 1031-1039.##Lofgren, H., lee, R. & Robinson, S. (2002). A Standard Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model in GAMS, International Food Policy Research Institute.##Mattmann, M., Logar, I., & Brouwer, R. (2016a). Hydropower externalities: A meta-analysis, Energy Economics, 57(C), 66-77.##Mattmann, M., Logar, I., & Brouwer, R. (2016b). Wind power externalities: A meta-analysis, Ecological Economics, 127(C), 23-36.##Meng, X., Siriwardana, M., & McNeill, J. (2015). The Environmental and employment effect of Australian carbon tax. International Journal of Social Science and Humanity, 5(6), 514-519.##Naqvi, F. (1998). A computable general equilibrium model of energy, economy and equity interactions in Pakistan. Energy Economics, 20(4). 347-373.##National Research Council. (2010). Hidden Costs of Energy: Unpriced Consequences of Energy Production and Use. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.##Office of Planning and Macroeconomic of Electricity and Energy. (2011). Energy Balance Sheet of the Ministry of Energy 2011. Ministry of Energy, Tehran, Iran: Author [in Persian].##Rabl, A., & Spadaro, J. (2005). Externalities of Energy: Extension of Accounting Framework and Policy Applications: Technical Report 2005.##Rahiminia, H., & Akbari Moghadam, B. (2016). The impact of subsidies reform on the inequality of welfare in Iran (CGE modeling and equivalent variation (EV) Index). Applied Economics Studies in Iran, 5(17), 243-271 (in Persian).##Samadi, S. (2017). The Social costs of electricity generation—categorizing different types of costs and evaluating their respective relevance. Energies, 10(3), 1-37.##Sanei, B., & Saadat, R. (2013). The effect of reduction of electricity subsidy on macro indices affecting the sectoral production in Iran. Iranian Journal of Trade Studies, 17(67), 1-20 [in Persian].##Sharifi, A., Khoshakhlagh, R., Bahaloo Horeh, M., & Sadeghi Hamedani, A. (2014). The impact of energy price increase on employment: A CGE approach. Journal of Economic Modeling Research, 4(16), 153-180 [in Persian].##Deputy of Information and Statistics. (2011). Statistical Report on 45 Years of Activities of Iran Electric Power Industry. Tavanir Expert Holding Company, Tehran, Iran.##Welsch, H. (2016). Electricity externalities, siting, and the energy mix: A survey. Oldenburg Discussion Papers in Economics, V – 394–16.##Wüstenhagen, R., Wolsink, M., & Bürer, M. J. (2007). Social acceptance of renewable energy innovation: An introduction to the concept. Energy Policy, 35(5), 2683-2691.##Yang, H., Lim, S., & Yoo, S. (2017). The Environmental costs of photovoltaic power plants in South Korea: A choice experiment study. Sustainability, 9(10), 1-13.##