1 بررسی اثرات تنظیم‌گری بورس کالای ایران بر رشد قیمت کالاها Investigating the Effects of Regulation of Iran Mercantile Exchange on Goods Price Growth https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_4887.html 10.22099/ijes.2018.28448.1433 1 One of the important socioeconomic tasks of governments is regulation. Regulation literature focuses on government intervention in the market for regulating the amount of production and distribution of a commodity, which can lead to the determination of the structure and rules governing the market. A commodities exchange is one of the most important regulatory agencies, which, by providing a convenient, transparent and observable trading system, is customary for the flow of government-specific regulations on commodities. The aim of the present study is to test the regulatory results of supply of products in the commodities exchange. To this end, the percentage increase in the price of 12 commodities traded on the commodities exchange was compared with 21 off-exchange trades using the Propensity Score Matching technique, Caliper and Radius Matching technique, and Bootstrap Standard Deviation. According to the obtained results, the supply of commodities on the Iran mercantile exchange has led to a decrease in their price growth compared to similar commodities outside the Iran mercantile exchange. As a result, using regulatory agencies such as the commodities exchange will increase production and welfare of the society. 0 یکی از وظایف مهم اقتصادی-اجتماعی دولت ها انجام تنظیم‌گری است. ادبیات تنظیم‌گری بر دخالت دولت در بازار به منظور تنظیم میزان تولید و توزیع یک کالا تمرکز دارد که در پی آن می‌تواند منجر به تعیین ساختار و قواعد حاکم بر بازار شود. بورس کالا یکی از مهم‌ترین نهادهای تنظیم‌گری است که به طور متعارف با فراهم کردن یک نظام داد و ستد مناسب، شفاف و قابل رصد موجب جریان تنظیمات مورد نظر دولت ها بر کالاها می‌شود. هدف این پژوهش آزمون نتایج تنظیم‌گری ورود کالاها در بورس کالای ایران است. بدین‌منظور درصد افزایش قیمت 12 کالایی که در بورس کالا داد‌و‌ستد می‌شوند با 21 کالای خارج از بورس با روش مچینگ ضریب تمایل به همراه تکنیک شعاع و پرگار و انحراف‌معیار بوت استرپی مقایسه شد. نتایج بدست‌آمده حاکی از آن است که عرضه‌ی محصولات در بورس کالا، موجب کاهش رشد قیمت آن‌ها در مقایسه با کالاهای مشابه خارج از بورس شده است. از‌این‌رو استفاده از نهادهای تنظیم‌گر مانند بورس کالا می‌تواند موجب افزایش تولید و رفاه جامعه شود. 7 23 سعید صمدی Saeed Samadi Department of Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran. Iran s.samadi@ase.ui.ac.ir مصطفی مبینی دهکردی Mostafa Mobini Dehkordi Department of Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran. Iran mostafa.dehkordi@gmail.com علیرضا کمالیان Alireza Kamalian Department of Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran. Iran alireza1364kamalian@gmail.com احسان محمدزاده Ehsan Mohammadzade Department of Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran. Iran mohamadzade.e@gmail.com مهدی کارنامه حقیقی Mehdi Karname Haghighi Department of Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran. Iran m.karname@gmail.com تنظیم‌گری دولت بورس کالا مچینگ References## Amiri, H. (2015). Modeling of mark-up shocks using the DSGE model: The case of Iran. Quarterly Plan and Budget, 20 (3), 95-124.##Berkman, H., Cole, R. A., & Fu, L. J. (2011). Political connections and minority-shareholder protection: Evidence from securities-market regulation in China.‏##Cumming, D., Johan, S., & Li, D. (2011). Exchange trading rules and stock market liquidity. Journal of Financial Economics, 99(3), 651-671.##Dal Bó, E. (2006). Regulatory capture: A review. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 22(2), 203-225.‏##Del Brio, E. B., de Miguel, A., & Tobar, J. E. (2010). The impact of the stock market regulation on the level of market efficiency: Comparison between Spain and UK. Revista Española de Financiación y Contabilidad, 39(146), 321-342.##Glaeser, E., Johnson, S., & Shleifer, A. (2001). Coase versus the Coasians. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116(3), 853-899.‏##Grand, J. (1991). The theory of government failure. British Journal of Political Science, 21(04), 423-442.‏##Hejazi, R., Rahmani, A., & Mozafari, Z. (2010). Investigation of the effect of disclosure of information on information quality issued by companies listed on Tehran stock exchange. Quarterly of Tehran Stock Exchange, 3(10), 23-36.##Jahanbin, S. E., & Zare, M. H. (2014). An attitude to the necessity of regulation in the insurance industry of Iran. Insurance Newsletter, 116, 237-263.##Jalali Naeini, G., Hasheminejad S. M., Sanei Aalem, M., & Ebrahimi S. B. (2011). Investigating the effect of the regulation of price restriction constraints on Tehran Stock Exchange performance. Quarterly of Tehran Stock Exchange, 4(13), 87-111.##Keshavarz, GH. (2016). Financial Time Series Econometric. Nashre Ney Press.##Khandouzi, Ehsan (2010). Regulatory governments' requirements in Iranian economy. Journal of Majlis and Research, 64, 41-80.##La Porta, R., Lopez-de-Silanes, F., Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. (2000). Investor protection and corporate governance. Journal of Financial Economics, 58(1), 3-27.‏##Naceur, S. B., Boubakri, N., & Ghazouani, S. (2010). Privatization and financial market development in emerging countries: A comparative study. Middle East Development Journal, 2(2), 229-250.‏##Nekarda, C. J., & Ramey, V. A. (2013). The cyclical behavior of the price-cost markup. NBER Working Paper, 19099##Nguyen, H., Oates, G., & Dunkley, M. (2014). A review of the establishment of the stock market in Vietnam–in relation to other transitional economies. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 6(10), 1-17.‏##Phylaktis, K., Kavussanos, M., & Manalis, G. (1999). Price limits and stock market volatility in the Athens Stock Exchange. European Financial Management, 5(1), 69-84.##Porta, R., Lopez‐de‐Silanes, F., Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. (2002). Investor protection and corporate valuation. The Journal of Finance, 57(3), 1147-1170.‏##Roth, A. E. (2015). Who Gets What—and Why: The New Economics of Matchmaking and Market Design. Houghton Mifflin Harcourt.‏##Shakeri, A., Mohammadi, T., & Rajabi, F. (2015). Effectiveness of pricing power on inflation in Iran economy. Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, 15 (58), 35-56.##Shleifer, A. (2005). Understanding regulation. European Financial Management, 11(4), 439–451.##Stigler, G. J. (1971). The theory of economic regulation. The Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science, 2 (1), 3-21. ##Su, D., & Fleisher, B. M. (1998). Risk, return and regulation in Chinese stock markets. Journal of Economics and Business, 50(3), 239-256.‏##Taylor, L. (1991). Income Distribution, Inflation, and Growth Lectures on Structuralist Macroeconomic Theory.MIT Press, London.##Yarrow, G. (2015). The Political Economy of Markets.MIT Press.##Yavari, A. (2014).An introduction to concept of legal regulation. Comparative Law Review, 5(2), 629-647.##Zhao, Z. (2004). Using matching to estimate treatment effects: Data requirements, matching metrics, and Monte Carlo evidence. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 86, 91-107.##

1 بررسی اثر تغییر ساختار فناورانه بر تولید کل: یک تحلیل داده- ستانده The Effect of Technological Structure Change on Total Output:An Input-Output Analysis https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_4896.html 10.22099/ijes.2018.28286.1427 1 In this study, the Input- Output Structural Decomposition Analysis (I-O SDA) is used to investigate the effects of technological structure changes on changes of total output in Sistan and Baluchestan Province during 2006-2011. The technological structure change is decomposed into two factors: intermediate input structure changes (input substitution) and change in direct backward linkage. The results show that the effect of changes in direct backward linkage is negative in all sectors, but the effect of input substitution in twelve sectors is positive and in other nine sectors is negative. Input substitutions in "Agriculture" and "Transport" sectors have the main positive effect on total output of the region and in ''Food industries'' and ''Restaurants & Hotels'' have the main negative effect on total output. This factor caused 20.89 billion Rials decrease in total output of region. Changes in direct backward linkage caused 8270.89 billion Rials decrease in total output of the region. 0 در این مطالعه از تحلیل تجزیه ساختاری در الگوی داده- ستانده برای بررسی اثر تغییر ساختار فناوری بر تولید کل در استان سیستان و بلوچستان در دوره 1385-1390 استفاده شده است. تغییرات ساختار فناورانه به دو عامل تغییر در ساختار نهاده‌های واسطه‌ای (جانشینی نهاده‌ها) و تغییر در پیوند مستقیم پیشین تجزیه شده است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که اثر تغییر پیوند مستقیم پیشین در همه بخش‌ها منفی بوده است؛ ولی اثر جانشینی نهاده‌ها در دوازده بخش دارای اثر مثبت و در نه بخش دیگر دارای اثر منفی بوده است. جانشینی نهاده‌ها در بخش‌های "کشاورزی" و "حمل و نقل" بیشترین اثر مثبت بر تولید کل منطقه را داشته است و بخش‌های "صنایع غذایی" و "هتل و رستوران" بیشترین اثر منفی را داشته است. این عامل موجب کاهش 89/20 میلیارد ریال در تولید کل منطقه شده است. تغییر در پیوند مستقیم پیشین موجب کاهش تولید منطقه به مبلغ 89/8270 میلیارد ریال شده است. 25 39 رمضان حسین زاده Ramezan Hosseinzadeh Department of Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran. Iran ra.hosseinzadeh@eco.usb.ac.ir نورالدین شریفی Nooraddin Sharify Department of Economics, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran. Iran nsharify@umz.ac.ir تحلیل داده- ستانده تحلیل تجزیه ساختاری تغیرات تکنولوژیکی استان سیستان و بلوچستان References## Ansari, V., & Salami, H. (2015). Analysis of the effect of technology change on agricultural production growth: Structural decomposition analysis method. Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, 46, 759-775.##Ansari, V., Salami, H., & Saleh, I. (2012). Sources of output growth in agriculture sector using input- output table. Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development Research, 1, 1-17.##Barker, T. S. (1990). An analysis of the updated 1963 input-output transactions table In Allen R. I. G. and Gosling W. F. (Eds.), Estimating and Projecting Input-Output Coefficients (pp. 57-67). London: Input-Output Publishing Co.##Bazzazan, F., & Mohammadi, N. (2007). Sources of economic growth and Input-Output structural decomposition analysis: The case of Iran, 16th International Conference on Input-Output Techniques, Istanbul, Turkey.##Bazzazan, F., & Mohammadi, N. (2008). Identify the effect of export development strategy in growth of industrial output (using input-output method). Journal of Quantitative Economics, 5, 131-155.##Bekhet, H. A. (2013). Assessing structural changes in the Malaysian economy: I–O approach. Economic Modelling, 30, 126-135.##Bokaei, M., & Banouei, A. (2011). Analysis of growth and structural changes using input-output tables (1986-2006). Biquarterly Journal of Economic Essays, 8, 205-235.##Çalliskan, H. K. (2015). Technological change and economic growth. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 195, 649 – 654.##Chenery, H. B., Shishido, S., & Watanabe, T. (1962). The pattern of Japanese growth. Econometrica, 30, 98–139.##Flegg, A., & Tohmo, T. (2011). 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New York: Cambridge University Press.##Miller, R., E., & Shao, G. (1994). Structural change in the U.S. multiregional economy. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 5, 41–72.##Pan, H. (2006). Dynamic and endogenous change of input–output structure with specific layers of technology. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 17, 200–223.##Rose, A. (1995). Input–output economics and computable general equilibrium models. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 6, 295–304.##Su, B., Ang, B. W., & Li, Y. (2017). Input-output and structural decomposition analysis of Singapore's carbon emissions. Energy Policy, 105, 484–492.##Wei, J., Huang, K., Yang, S, Li, Y., Hu, T., & Zhang, Y. (2016). Driving forces analysis of energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in Beijing: An input-output structural decomposition analysis. Journal of Cleaner Production, 163, 1-11.##Zuhdi, U. (2012). Analyzing the influence of creative industry sector to the national economic structural changes by decomposition analysis: The case of Indonesia, Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 65, 980 – 985##

1 تحلیل نظری و تجربی شاخص مقاومت اقتصادی Theoretical and Empirical Analysis of Economic Resilience Index https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_4879.html 10.22099/ijes.2018.26980.1371 1 Resilience is defined in different ways by different disciplines and different authors but in general resilience may be defined as the ability of a system and its component parts to anticipate, absorb, accommodate, or recover from the effects of a hazardous event in a timely and efficient manner. Resilience is applicable at the micro as macro level, and for this reason, is sometimes defined as the ability of an individual, a household (micro level), a community, a country or a region (macro level) to withstand, cope, adapt, and quickly recover from shocks without compromising long-term development. In this paper economic resilience is defined as the capacity of an economy to resist shocks and withstand the effects of a shock and to avoid the shock altogether. The paper tries to follow the UNDP procedure in presenting Human Development Index , so the same procedure will be followed to provide an Economic Resilience Index (ERI). This resilience index will be applied for a group of developing countries including Iran and the finding will be analyzed. 0 مقاومت در علوم مختلف و توسط نویسندگان مختلف، به گونه‌های متفاوتی مورد تعریف قرار گرفته است؛ اما به صورت کلی می‌توان این مفهوم را به عنوان توانائی یک نظام و اجزاء آن در پیش‌بینی، جذب، اصلاح و فائق آمدن بر اثرات منفی یک حادثه ناگوار در زمان مناسب و به شیوه مؤثر تعریف کرد. مقاومت، هم در سطوح خرد و هم در سطوح کلان مطرح است. بنابراین گاهی اوقات مقاومت به عنوان توانایی یک فرد یا یک خانواده (در سطح خرد) و یک جامعه، یک کشور یا یک منطقه (در سطح کلان) در مواجهه، مقابله، جذب و بهبود سریع پس از برخورد با تکانه‌های منفی بدون تأثیرگذاری بر توسعه و پیشرفت درازمدت است. در این مقاله، مقاومت اقتصادی به عنوان توانائی یک اقتصاد در برابر تکانه‌های اقتصادی و مقاومت در برابر آثار و عواقب آن تعریف می‌شود. این مقاله همچنین تلاش کرده است تا از روش برنامه عمران ملل متحد (UNDP) در محاسبه و گزارش سالیانه شاخص توسعه انسانی پیروی کند. بر همین اساس، روش مشابهی در دستیابی به شاخص مقاومت اقتصادی به کار گرفته شده و یک شاخص مناسب به منظور اندازه‌گیری مقاومت اقتصادی ارائه شده است. این شاخص برای گروهی از کشورهای در حال توسعه از جمله ایران مورد بررسی قرار گرفته و همچنین یافته‌های حاصل از آن نیز مورد تحلیل قرار گرفته است. 41 53 صادق بختیاری Sadegh Bakhtiari Department of Economics, Isfahan (Khorasgan) Branch, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan, Iran. Iran bakhtiari_sadegh@yahoo.com فرزام سجادیه Farzam Sajjadieh Department of Economics, Isfahan (Khorasgan) Branch, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan, Iran. Iran sajjadiehfarzam@gmail.com مقاومت مقاومت اقتصادی حکمرانی خوب References## Briguglio, L. (2014). A vulnerability and resilience framework for small states, Retrieved 2014, March. 23, from: https://www.um.edu.mt/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/215692/Briguglio_The_Vulnerability_Resilience_Framework,_23_Mar_2014.pdf##Briguglio, L., Cordina, G., Bugeja, S., & Farrugia, N. (2005). Conceptualizing and measuring economic resilience, Retrieved 2014, from: https://www.um.edu.mt/__data/assets/pdf_file/0013/44122/resilience_index.pdf##Briguglio, L., Cordina, G., Farrugia, N., & Vella, S. (2008). Economic vulnerability and resilience: Concepts and measurements, UNU World Institute for Development Economics and Research, 55, 1-20.##Caldera-Sanchez, A., de Serres, A., Gori, F., Hermansen, M., & Rohn, O. (2016). Strengthening economic resilience: Insights from the Post-1970 record of severe recessions and financial crises, OECD Economic Policy Paper, 20, 1-29.##Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A., & Mastruzzi, M. (2011). The worldwide governance indicators: Methodology and analytical Issues, Hague Journal on the Rule of Law, 3, 220-246. ##Miller, T. B., Kim, A. B., & Roberts, G. M. (2018). 2018 Index of Economic Freedom, https://www.heritage.org/index/pdf/2018/book/index_2018.pdf##World Bank, (2017). World Development Report 2017, Governance and the Law, Washington, www.worldbank.org/en/publication/wdr2017##

1 قیمت گذاری هدانیک در شرایط نااطمینانی: یک الگوی نظری رفتار مصرف‌کننده Hedonic Pricing under Uncertainty: A Theoretical Consumer Behavior Model https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_4812.html 10.22099/ijes.2018.27490.1396 1 A model of consumer behavior has been formulated by using an additive utility function and the hedonic pricing approach, in a virtual market. Since, there is a time lag between ordering and purchasing products (goods and services) online and receiving them, it means the consumer makes decision under uncertainty. The level of satisfaction with products with distinctive characteristics is described by the probability vector of their expected quality. Consumer choice, as well as interpretation of the equilibrium, is derived from a mathematical process. The results show that hedonic pricing which indicates willingness to pay is affected by probabilities of the expected quality or satisfaction with product characteristics. In addition, the expected marginal rate of substitution for every two characteristics of the product equals to the ratio for probabilities of the expected quality of them. 0 رفتار مصرف‌کننده در قالب یک تابع مطلوبیت جمع‌پذیر با رهیافت قیمت‌گذاری هدانیک، در بازار مجازی فرمول بندی شده است. از آنجا که بین سفارش و خرید برخط محصولات (کالاها و خدمات) و وصول آنها وقفه زمانی وجود دارد، لذا مصرف کننده در شرایط نااطمینانی تصمیم می‌گیرد. سطح رضایت خاطر از محصولات دارای مشخصه‌های مختلف، با توجه به بردار احتمال مربوط به کیفیت مورد انتظار آن مشخصه‌ها، توصیف می‌شود. انتخاب مصرف کننده و نیز تفسیر تعادل، از یک فرایند ریاضی حاصل می شود. نتایج نشان می‌دهد قیمت‌گذاری هدانیک که بر تمایل به پرداخت دلالت دارد، تحت تاثیر احتمالات مربوط به کیفیت انتظاری یا رضایت انتظاری مشخصه‌های محصول است. به علاوه، نرخ نهایی جانشینی انتظاری هر جفت از مشخصه‌های محصول برابر با نسبت احتمال مربوط به کیفیت (رضایت) مورد انتظار آنها است. 55 60 یگانه موسوی جهرمی Yeganeh Mousavi Jahromi Department of Economics, , Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran. Iran yeganehmj@gmail.com ارغوان فرزین معتمد Arghavan Farzin Motamed CEO Consultant, Bank Tosse Taavon, Tehran, Iran. Iran afarzinmotamed@gmail.com قیمت‌گذاری هدانیک نااطمینانی رفتار مصرف‌کننده نرخ نهایی جانشینی References## Bijari, P., & Lanier, B. (2005). Demand estimation with heterogeneous consumers and unobserved product characteristics: A Hedonic approach. Journal of Political Economy, 113 (6), 1239-1275##Chen, C. F., & Rothschild, R. (2010). An application of hedonic pricing analysis to the case of hotel rooms in Taipei. Tourism Economics: The Business and Finance of Tourism and Recreation, 16 (3), 685-694.##Espinet, J. M., Saez, M., Coenders, G., & Fluiva, M. (2003). Effect on prices of the attributes of holiday hotels: A Hedonic price approach. Tourism Economics, 9, 165–177.##Henderson, J. M., & Quandt, R. E. (1980). Microeconomic Theory: A Mathe-matical Approach, McGraw-Hill, Third Edition.##Kask, S. B., & Maani, S. A. (May 1992). Uncertainty, information and Hedonic pricing. Land Economics, 68 (2), 170-184.##Monty, B., & Skidmore, M. (2003). Hedonic pricing and willingness to pay for bed and breakfast amenities in Southeast Wisconsin. Journal of Travel Research, 42, 195–199.##Rosen, S. (1974). Hedonic prices and implicit markets: Product differentiation in pure competition. Journal of Political Economy, 82 (1), 34-55.##Thrane, C. (2007). Examining the determinants of room rates for hotels in capital cities: The Oslo experience. Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management, 5, 315–323.##White, P. J., & Mulligan, G. F. (2002). Hedonic estimates of lodging rates in the four corners regions. The Professional Geographer, 54, 533–543.##Yang, Z. (2001). An application of the Hedonic price model with uncertain attribute- The case of the people's republic of China. Property Management, 19 (1), 50-63.##

1 تعیین رفتار بهینه سیاست پولی در ادوار تجاری با استفاده از الگوی تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی Optimal Cyclical Behavior of Monetary Policy of Iran: Using a DSGE Model https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_4823.html 10.22099/ijes.2018.28984.1443 1 The countercyclical monetary policy is a policy that economists recommend to adopt in order to slow down the economic fluctuations. The aim of this study is to address the question that, in the presence of fiscal dominance and considering institutional quality (IQL), what the optimal monetary policy should be during the business cycles? To find the appropriate answer, first, in the framework of a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model, proportional to the structure of the Iranian economy, the parameters of the model are derived. Then, considering fiscal dominance and institutional quality, the optimal monetary policy during the business cycles is calculated and by using the equilibrium parameters, using data of Iran during 1991:2-2016:1, it is calibrated. The results show that the optimal monetary policy during business cycles of Iran is a countercyclical monetary policy. The optimal monetary policy coefficient during the business cycles decreases by a decline in institutional quality and an increase in fiscal dominance. In addition, when the policymaker's goal is only stabilizing inflation, the optimal monetary policy is independent of the business cycles. In addition, when the monetary policy is assumed completely independent, the optimal policy coefficient takes the highest value compared to the other assumed conditions. 0 سیاست پولی مخالف ادوار تجاری، سیاستی است که اقتصاددانان برای کاهش نوسانات اقتصادی پیشنهاد می‌کنند. هدف مطالعه حاضر پاسخگویی به این سؤال است که با وجود سلطه مالی و با مدنظر قرار دادن کیفیت نهادی، سیاست پولی بهینه، طی ادوار تجاری باید چگونه باشد؟ برای یافتن پاسخ مناسب، ابتدا در چارچوب یک الگوی تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی، متناسب با ساختار اقتصاد ایران، پارامترهای الگو استخراج شده‌اند. سپس سیاست بهینه پولی طی ادوار تجاری با لحاظ کردن سلطه مالی و کیفیت نهادی محاسبه و با استفاده از پارامترهای تعادلی، مقدار دهی (کالیبره) شده است. نتایج، نشان می‌دهد که سیاست پولی بهینه طی ادوار تجاری، سیاست پولی ضد ادواری است. ضریب سیاست پولی بهینه طی ادوار تجاری با کاهش کیفیت نهادی و افزایش سلطه مالی، کم می‌شود. همچنین در صورتی که هدف سیاستگذار فقط، تثبیت تورم باشد، سیاست بهینه پولی، مستقل از ادوار تجاری است. علاوه بر این، در حالتی که سیاست پولی به طور کامل مستقل فرض شود، ضریب سیاست بهینه، بیشترین مقدار را نسبت به سایر شرایط مفروض به خود می‌گیرد. 61 79 ندا کسایی پور Neda Kasaipour Department of Economics, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran. Iran kasaipour@yahoo.com علیرضا عرفانی Alireza Erfani Department of Economics, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran. Iran aerfani@semnan.ac.ir سیاست پولی ادوار تجاری الگوی تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی ایران References## Bayat, M., Afshari, Z., & Tavakoliyan, H. (2017). Monetary policy and total index of stock price within the framework of a DSGE model. Quarterly Journal of Economic Research and Policy, 3(78), 178-206.##Calderon, C., Duncan, R., Schmidt-Hebbel, K. (2012). Do good institutions promote counter-cyclical macroeconomic policies? Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 78(5),650-670.##Duncan, R. (2014). Institutional quality, the cyclicality of monetary policy and macroeconomic volatility, Journal of Macroeconomics, 39, 113–155.##Farazmand, H., Ghorbanzhad, M., & Pourjavan, A. (2013). Determining the rules of optimal monetary and fiscal policies in Iran's economy. Quarterly Journal of Economic Research and Policy, 67, 69-88.##Frankel, J., Vegh, C. A., & Vuletin, G. (2011). Fiscal policy in developing countries: Escape from procyclicality.##http://www.voxeu.org/article/how-developing-nations-escaped-procyclical-scal-policy.##Gruben, W. C., & Welch, J. H. (2010). Is tighter fiscal policy expansionary under fiscal dominance? Hyper crowding out in Latin America, Contemporary Economic Policy, 28(2), 171-181.##Hadian, I. & Ostadzad, A. H. (2015). Calculation of the optimal rate of income tax with and without environmental considerations. Quarterly Journal of Applied Economic Studies of Iran, 24, 1-25.##Huang, H. & Wei, S. J. (2006). Monetary policies for developing countries: the role of institutional quality, Journal of International Economics, 70, 239–252.##Kim, J. (2014). Cyclicality of optimal stabilization policy in developing countries under frictions: Role of imperfect infrastructural development, Discussion Paper in Economics, Colorado University, 13-11.##Motevaseli, M., Ebrahimi, A., Shahmoradi, A., & Tajik, A. (2010). 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1 سرریز نوسانات بین تورم و بیکاری با توجه به بخش های مختلف اقتصادکلان در ایران Spillover Fluctuations between Inflation and Un(employment) Concerning Different Macroeconomic Sectors in Iran https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_4900.html 10.22099/ijes.2018.28670.1437 1 The main objective of this study is to analyze spillover fluctuations between inflation fluctuation and (un)employment fluctuation in relation to agriculture, industry and services sectors of Iran. In line with this, PANEL in Mean-MGARCH model has been used concerning Iran’s agriculture, industry and services sectors over the period of time from spring 2002 to winter 2016. The results show that inflation fluctuations in each sector would spillover into the next period of all agriculture, industry and services sectors. (Un)employment fluctuations in each sector do not spillover into the next period of that sector or other sectors. The inflation and un(employment) fluctuations (conditional covariance) in each sector spillover into the joint inflation and un(employment) fluctuations of that sector and the other sectors. 0 هدف اصلی مطالعه حاضر تحلیل سرریز نوسانات بین تورم و بیکاری(اشتغال) با توجه به بخش های کشاورزی، صنعت و خدمات در ایران بوده است. برای این منظور از الگوی گارچ در میانگین پانلی (Panel Mean in MGARCH) و داده های بخش های کشاورزی، صنعت و خدمات در دوره پاییز 2002 تا زمستان 2016 استفاده کرده ایم. نتایج نشان می دهد که نوسانات تورم در هر بخش بر بخش های کشاورزی، صنعت و خدمات در دوره بعد سرریز می شود. اما نوسانات بیکاری(اشتغال) در هر بخش بر نوسانات همان بخش یا سایر بخش ها در دوره بعد سرریز نمی شود. همچنین نوسانات مشترک تورم و بیکاری (کوواریانس شرطی) در هر بخش بر نوسانات مشترک تورم و بیکاری همان بخش و سایر بخش ها سرریز می شود. 81 98 اسمعیل ابونوری Esmaiel Abounoori Department of Economics, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran. 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1 دلیل بازپس گیری "نقش سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی، انتقال تکنولوژی و اثرات سرریز بر رشد اقتصادی (با رویکردی از مدل تعادل عمومی استاندارد)" (حسینعلی فاخر و زهرا عابدی) Retraction notice to "The Role of Foreign Direct Investment, Technology Transfer and Spillover Effects on Economic Growth: A GTAP model" (Hossein-Ali Fakher, Zahra Abedi) https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_5007.html 10.22099/ijes.2018.5007 1 This article has been retracted at the request of the Editor as it copied material by corresponding author, previously published in the article ‘‘Trade-based technology transfers and its impact on the Iranian economy: A GTAP model’’, by Bahmani and Nejati, Iran. Econ. Rev. Vol.19, No.1, 2015. p.107-122. 0 این مقاله به دلیل کپی برداری نویسنده مسئول مقاله از مقاله ‘‘Trade-based technology transfers and its impact on the Iranian economy: A GTAP model’’ (نویسندگان: بهمنی و نجاتی) منتشر شده در Iran. Econ. Rev. Vol.19, No.1, 2015. p.107-122 و چاپ شده در Iranian Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. 4, No. 2, Fall 2015, 135-158 بازپس گیری می شود. 99 99 Abbasian, E., Farzanegan, E., & Nasiroleslami, E. (2016). Price bubble anomalies in Tehran stock exchange: Limits to arbitrage approach. Quarterly Journal of Economic Research and Policies, 23(76), 75-92.##