Shiraz University
Iranian Journal of Economic Studies
2322-1402
2717-1590
8
1
2019
03
01
The Effects of Oil Price Shocks on Discretionary Fiscal Policy in Selected OPEC Countries: Panel Structural Vector Autoregressive
7
25
EN
Marzieh
Dindar Rostami
statistical center of Iran,Tehran, Iran.
marzieh.dindar@gmail.com
Shamsollah
Shirinbakhsh
Faculty of Social and Economic, Alzahra University, Tehran, Iran.
sh_shirinbakhsh@yahoo.com
Zahra
Afshari
Faculty of social and Economic, Alzahra University, Tehran, Iran.
afsharizah@gmail.com
10.22099/ijes.2018.30257.1470
The present study was aimed to investigate the effects of oil price shocks on discretionary fiscal policies in selected OPEC countries during 1980-2015. In this regard, the heterogeneous dynamic reaction to structural shock was examined using Panel Structural Vector Autoregressive (PSVAR) technique. Based on the findings, the effect of oil price shocks on discretionary fiscal policy was positive in short-run but ineffective in long-run.<br /> In addition, the oil price shocks caused an increase in inflation and government expenditure and a decrease in the economic growth in selected OPEC countries according to the Resource Curse phenomenon. Moreover, as variance decomposition showed, the government expenditure and economic growth have the most effect on discretionary policy changes. The effect of discretionary fiscal policy on economic growth in selected OPEC countries was negative, contrary to the Keynesian theory and the results of some other studies. Because discretionary fiscal policies play a major role in decisions of the countries mentioned above, the results also showed that a limitation in the government authority in OPEC countries would come into conflict with the decrease in economic growth and production fluctuation.
Panel SVAR,OPEC countries,Discretionary fiscal policy,Oil Price Shocks
https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_5029.html
https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_5029_f935e1240c5aa8e0b9a9e118074a1233.pdf
Shiraz University
Iranian Journal of Economic Studies
2322-1402
2717-1590
8
1
2019
03
01
The Effect of Property Rights on Entrepreneurship:Evidence from Some Factor-driven, Efficiency-driven, and Innovation-driven Countries
27
51
EN
Ali Hussein
Samadi
0000-0002-8491-6192
Department of Economics, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran.
asamadi@rose.shirazu.ac.ir
Sara
Togha
Department of economics, Shiraz university, Shiraz, Iran.
saratogha@yahoo.com
10.22099/ijes.2019.31027.1492
Entrepreneurship is influenced by many factors and environments such as institutions. Institutions have an important role to play in the individual's tendency toward necessity and opportunity entrepreneurship. The purpose of this paper was to examine the impact of institutional quality (property rights) on opportunity and necessity entrepreneurship. The results, based on unbalanced panel data from 2005 to 2015, showed that property rights did not have a significant effect on the opportunity entrepreneurship in the factor-driven group while it had a negative impact on necessity entrepreneurship. In the efficiency-driven group, protecting property rights would provide the perfect context for opportunity entrepreneurship and reduce necessity entrepreneurship, but in the innovation-driven group, strengthening property rights increased both opportunity and necessity entrepreneurship. These results indicate that the impact of property rights on (opportunity- and necessity-) entrepreneurship depends on the level of economic development of countries.
Property rights,Opportunity entrepreneurship,Necessity entrepreneurship,Development level,Unbalanced panel data
https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_5181.html
https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_5181_f807b9aec34b9c9943c86cc5c98c322e.pdf
Shiraz University
Iranian Journal of Economic Studies
2322-1402
2717-1590
8
1
2019
03
01
Forecasting Industrial Production in Iran: A Comparative Study of Artificial Neural Networks and Adaptive Nero-Fuzzy Inference System
53
68
EN
Afsaneh
Kazemi Mehrabadi
Facolty of Economic,University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran.
akazemi@modares.ac.ir
Vahid
Taghinezhad Omran
Facolty of Economic,University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran.
omran@umz.ac.ir
Mohammad
Valipour Khatir
Facolty of Economic,University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran.
m.khatir1461@gmail.com
Saeed
Rasekhi
Facolty of Economic,University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran.
saeed_rasekhi@yahoo.com
10.22099/ijes.2018.28706.1438
Forecasting industrial production is essential for efficient planning by managers. Although there are many statistical and mathematical methods for prediction, the use of intelligent algorithms with desirable features has made significant progress in recent years. The current study compared the accuracy of the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Adaptive Nero-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) approaches to assess the current state and predict the future state of industrial production. The seasonal dataset comprised the labor force, capital stock, human capital, trade openness, liquidity and credit financing to the industrial sector as input variables and value added of industrial production as the output variable for the period of 1988 to 2018. The dataset was used to forecast industrial production for Seasons of the year 2019 and 2020. The results showed that, while both are appropriate tools for forecasting industrial production, ANFIS had a lower the Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) than ANN. The findings of the research indicate that ANFIS is more effective in forecasting industrial production, which can help policymakers in planning and creating an effective strategy for the future.
Forecasting,Industrial Production,Artificial neural networks,Adaptive Nero-Fuzzy Inference System,Iran
https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_4878.html
https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_4878_febd819f96d8fcd70e74205b8279c0b5.pdf
Shiraz University
Iranian Journal of Economic Studies
2322-1402
2717-1590
8
1
2019
03
01
The Impacts of Monetary Policy on Macroeconomic Variables Assuming the Collateral Constraint
69
90
EN
Hadi
Keshavarz
Department of economics, Persian gulf university, bushehr , Iran
hd.keshavarz@gmail.com
Hojat
Parsa
Department of Economics, Persian Gulf University, Bushehr, Iran
hojat_parsa@yahoo.com
10.22099/ijes.2019.31442.1508
This study aimed to examine the effects of monetary policy on macroeconomic variables with regard to the collateral constraint. For this purpose, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) was developed for Iran’s economic status. Two scenarios were considered as to account for the behavior of the central bank. In the first scenario, the monetary rule is modeled according to the GDP gap and inflation. In the second scenario that is modeled by macro-prudential rule, in addition to the GDP gap and inflation, it is also the central bank responses to the housing price gap that contributes to a steady state. An examination of the impulse response functions in the two scenarios indicated that the monetary shock increased production and inflation. A monetary shock has a positive impact on the consumption of patient households (lenders) and a negative effect on impatient households’ (borrowers) consumption. The collateral constraint was assumed to cause the effects of shocks to be continued on both groups. A comparison between the two scenarios indicated that if the central bank responds to the housing price deviation, in addition to the GDP gap and inflation, the effectiveness of the monetary policy will be strengthened.
Monetary Policy,Collateral Constraint,Macro-Prudential Rule,Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model,Iran
https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_5209.html
https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_5209_830be43c00e849dac5d6ea21af7d1518.pdf
Shiraz University
Iranian Journal of Economic Studies
2322-1402
2717-1590
8
1
2019
03
01
The Modeling and Comparison of GMDH and RBF Artificial Neural Networks in Forecasting Consumption of Petroleum Products in the Agricultural Sector
91
105
EN
Mojtaba
Abbasian
Faculty of Economic, Chabahar University, Chabahar, Iran
abbasian@cmu.ac.ir
Ali
Sardar Shahraki
Department of Economic, University of Sistsn and Baluchestan, Zahedan,Iran
a.shahraki65@gmail.com
Javad
shahraki
Department of Economic, University of Sistsn and Baluchestan, Zahedan,Iran
j.shahraki@eco.usb.ac.ir
10.22099/ijes.2018.29049.1444
Energy plays a significant role in today's developing societies. The role of energy demands to make decisions and policy with regard to its production, distribution, and supply. The vital importance of energy, especially fossil fuels, is a factor affecting agricultural production.<br /> This factor has a great influence on the production of agricultural products in Iran. The forecast of the consumption of oil products by the agricultural sector can help managers and planners to adopt sound management practices for their consumption. Presently, artificial neural networks are regarded as a powerful tool for the analysis and modeling of nonlinear relationships. The present study employed GMDH and RBF artificial neural networks to estimate the consumption of oil products by the agricultural sector. The underpinning parameters were selected to include the value added to the fixed price, rural population, agricultural land area, agricultural mechanization (tractor), and the consumption rate of oil products, electricity, price of oil products, and total energy use by the agricultural sector for the period of 1967-2017. The comparison of MSE, MAE, and MAPE for the GMDH and RBF models showed that the GMDH neural network was highly capable of modeling the energy consumption of the agricultural sector.
Artificial Neural Network,Oil,Radial Basis Function (RBF),Group Method of Data Handling,Agricultural Sector
https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_5021.html
https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_5021_afe15c0244f306882f7fbe8cb94b0c5c.pdf
Shiraz University
Iranian Journal of Economic Studies
2322-1402
2717-1590
8
1
2019
03
01
The Determinants of the Mode of Informal Transport Chosen in North Central City of Ilorin, Nigeria
107
118
EN
Ahmed
Yakubu
Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Ilorin, Nigeria
taruwere@gmail.com
Mohammed Adebayo
Ojuolape
Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Ilorin, Nigeria
ojuolape.ma@unilorin.edu.ng
Jemeel
Sanni
Department of Economics, University of Ilorin, Kwara State, Nigeria
sannijemeel@gmail.com
10.22099/ijes.2019.31386.1506
Transportation is a necessity if the day-to-day economic activities of the society must move on. There are different modes of informal transport available in Nigeria. This study evaluated the determinants of the modal choice of informal transport among commuters in North central city of Ilorin, Nigeria. The study used primary data generated through a structured questionnaire administered to 100 commuters randomly selected in Ilorin metropolis. The study used a multinomial logit model for data analysis. The results showed that earnings and household size were the core determinants of the choice of informal transport mode. The study concluded that different informal transport modes available to the commuters gave them the opportunity to make choices based on their income and the transport cost in Ilorin metropolis, Nigeria.
Informal Transport,Choice,Nigeria,Multinomial logit model
https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_5269.html
https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_5269_5d6eed73b31f9ae809d9b356f6b63bd6.pdf
Shiraz University
Iranian Journal of Economic Studies
2322-1402
2717-1590
8
1
2019
03
01
An Empirical Analysis of Strategic Competition and Exchange Rate Pass-Through
119
136
EN
Saeed
Rasekhi
Department of Economics, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran
srasekhi@umz.ac.ir
Zahra
Sheidaei
Department of Economics, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran
sheidaee_zahra@yahoo.com
10.22099/ijes.2019.31929.1530
The aim of this article is to study the firm-level pricing behavior based on the firm’s competitive strategy through the exchange rate pass-through. Using Iranian export price microdata, we provide new empirical evidence on how firm’s exchange rate pass-through depends on firm’s strategic decisions of competition. After classifying firms in two groups based on their competitive strategies, we show that firms involving in strategic complements pass more exchange rate movements to export prices than firms with strategic substitutions. Furthermore, firms in strategic substitutions tend to increase their export volume significantly more than the firms in strategic complements as a result of the depreciation of exchange rate.
Competitive Strategy,Strategic Complements,Strategic Substitution,Exchange Rate Pass-through,Iran
https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_5315.html
https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_5315_dfa2d6cf47647d6ad3b116fb75747ea0.pdf
Shiraz University
Iranian Journal of Economic Studies
2322-1402
2717-1590
8
1
2019
03
01
The Success Factors of Developing Countries' Transition to a Learning Economy: Evidences from Iran by a Grounded Theory Approach
137
161
EN
Behnam
Abdi
Faculty of Management, Imam Ali Officer University, Tehran, Iran.
abdi220@gmail.com
Seyyed Hamid
Khodadad Hosseini
Faculty of Management and Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
khodadad@modares.ac.ir
10.22099/ijes.2019.31565.1512
An outstanding feature of the contemporary world is the rapid economic, technological, social, and political changes marked by a high level of uncertainty. For surviving in this complex and constantly changing economy, successful transition to a learning economy is a necessity for developing countries. This research was aimed to investigate the factors which played a role in the developing countries’ successful transition to a learning economy. Furthermore, according to evolutionary economics, countries are path-dependent, i.e. the differences in structures and institutions of an economy give each economic system its specific nature that is illustrated in the particular challenges each country face in its transformation to a learning economy. Hence, based on the pieces of evidence from Iran, this inductive, exploratory, and qualitative research, using a grounded theory approach and a follow-up quantitative analysis based on survey data, led to the development of a model that can be used to analyze the success factors which contribute to this transition. The findings showed that in terms of the ‘paradigm model’, transitional thinking as casual condition, ICT, social capital and macro-economic conditions as intervening conditions, policy institution as central category, government, university and industry interactions, learning firms, collaborative learning, improved research and education system, and regional development as strategies were factors that could lead to a learning economy.
Learning economy,Knowledge-based economy,Transition,Policy institution,Grounded Theory
https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_5333.html
https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_5333_e3b763eb98c9c4131160ecab82c96df0.pdf
Shiraz University
Iranian Journal of Economic Studies
2322-1402
2717-1590
8
1
2019
03
01
Interbank Market Failure and the Effects of the Basel III Regulations in a DSGE Model for Iran
163
183
EN
Marzieh
Pirahmadi
Faculty of Social Sciences and Economics, AL Zahra University, Tehran, Iran.
pirahmadimarzieh@gmail.com
Zahra
Afshari
Faculty of Social Sciences and Economics, AL Zahra University, Tehran, Iran.
z.afshari@alzahra.ac.ir
Mehdi
Sarem
Economic Research and Policies, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Tehran, Iran.
mehdi_sarem@yahoo.com
10.22099/ijes.2019.33834.1577
In order to facilitate transactions among banks, the interbank market has been established in Iran since 2008. The primary objective of this market is to eliminate banking system liquidity deficiencies at a rate chosen by the Central bank of Iran. The importance of this rate is that it affects market interest rates through its effects on banks’ balance sheets. Banks’ balance sheets are also influenced by banking regulation, such as Basel regulations; thus, this study was aimed to investigate the effects of the interbank market in Iran by imposing Basel III regulations on the banking system. For this purpose, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) was designed that included the interbank market. The structural parameters of the designed model were estimated using the Bayesian method and the quarterly data on the period 2008-2015. Afterward, the effect of a positive interbank innovation on the economy’s dynamics was examined. The results showed that an increase in the interbank rate led to instability in the economy. It was concluded that an increase in the liquidity and capital adequacy requirement, as mentioned in the Basel III regulations, would reduce the negative effects of interbank shocks on macroeconomic variables and the economy would naturally become more stable.
Interbank market,Basel III regulations,Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium,Liquidity requirement,Capital adequacy requirement
https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_5513.html
https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_5513_6fcaf178af05853170afe1188ee9a87b.pdf
Shiraz University
Iranian Journal of Economic Studies
2322-1402
2717-1590
8
1
2019
03
01
The Dynamics of Exchange Market Pressure and Inflation in Iran: Regime Switching Approach
185
206
EN
Sayed Yahya
Abtahi
Accounting and economic dep. islamic azad university, yazd.iran
abtahi@iauyazd.ac.ir
Elham
Amrollahi Bioki
Department of Economic , Science and Research branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
amrollahi_elham@yahoo.com
10.22099/ijes.2019.34098.1585
This study was an attempt to analyze the dynamic reaction of the exchange market pressure (EMP) to different states of the foreign exchange market and inflation in the Iranian economy during 1988:4-2017:4. To this end, the EMP index was calculated using Edwards’s (2002) and Kumah’s (2007) formulae. By considering inflation as the threshold variable and using Threshold Vector Autoregressive (TVAR) model, the results showed that lagged variables had no significant effects on EMP in a low inflation regime, but inflation had significant effects on EMP in a high inflation regime. The results of using the Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive (MS-VAR) model showed that in EMP and INF equations, the autoregressive coefficients in all lags and in both regimes were significant; this emphasizes the stability of the estimated VAR model. Based on the results of the MS-VAR equations, the results of the Granger Causality Test showed that when the EMP switched to a high regime, the inflation would have a significant impact on the EMP, but in the regimes where the EMP was at a low level, the inflation was not the cause of the EMP. EMP in low inflation regimes could also affect inflation while EMP was not the cause of inflation in high inflation regimes. Therefore, the policymakers should note that increasing EMP, even in low inflation regimes, can lead to pressure on prices. On the other hand, an increase in the foreign reserves causes the EMP to switch to a high regime; then, the inflationary pressures at any level of the inflation rate can exacerbate the exchange market pressure, and policymakers would be unable to control the currency market. Thus, if the EMP is controlled, the effects of inflation on the EMP will be discontinued, and this is a key point for policymakers.
Exchange Market Pressure,Inflationary Dynamics,Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive Model,Monetary Policy,Threshold Vector Autoregressive Model,Iran
https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_5524.html
https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_5524_786ddc9d563800608519218967028bdf.pdf
Shiraz University
Iranian Journal of Economic Studies
2322-1402
2717-1590
8
1
2000
05
22
Persian Abstracts
EN
10.22099/ijes.2640.6102
https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_6102.html
https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_6102_09a0c643b07d76b33fed975ef280a1d3.pdf