Shiraz University Iranian Journal of Economic Studies 2322-1402 8 2 2020 03 02 Prediction-Based Portfolio Optimization Model for Iran’s Oil Dependent Stocks Using Data Mining Methods بهینه‌سازی پرتفوی مبتنی بر پیش‌بینی برای سهام گروه‌های وابسته به نفت در ایران با استفاده از روش‌های داده کاوی 225 252 5560 10.22099/ijes.2020.34367.1595 EN Mohammad Sayadi Faculty of Economics, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran. Meysam Omidi Faculty of Economics, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran. Journal Article 2019 07 20 This study applied a prediction-based portfolio optimization model to explore the results of portfolio predicament in the Tehran Stock Exchange. To this aim, first, the data mining approach was used to predict the petroleum products and chemical industry using clustering stock market data. Then, some effective factors, such as crude oil price, exchange rate, global interest rate, gold price, and S&P 500 index, were used to estimate each industry index using Radial Basis Function and Multi-Layer Perceptron neural networks. Finally, by comparing the validation ratios in a bullish market using K-Means, SOM, and Fuzzy C-means clustering algorithms, the best algorithm was employed to predict indicators for each industry. The sample was collected between December 15, 2008, and April 25, 2018. The results revealed that the Multi-Layer Perceptron algorithm had the highest accuracy and was the best option for portfolio predicament. However, the Fuzzy C-means algorithm produced the best clusters. Practical results showed that Sepahan oil and Kharg petrochemical stocks were the most important stocks in the short term while Kharg petrochemical, Fannavaran petrochemical, and Tehran oil refinery stocks made higher contributions in a stock portfolio in the medium- or long-term.

https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_5560_3c34798ed1cefaf598d3091a37809822.pdf

Shiraz University Iranian Journal of Economic Studies 2322-1402 8 2 2020 05 12 The Theory of Purchasing Power Parity in MENA Countries: The Quantile Unit Root Test نظریه برابری قدرت خرید در کشورهای منطقه MENA : آزمون ریشه واحد کوانتیل 253 263 5549 10.22099/ijes.2020.33571.1570 EN Seyyed Ali Paytakhti Oskooe Department of Economics, Tabriz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, Iran Ehsan Shafei , Department of Economics, Tabriz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, Iran Journal Article 2019 05 12 This paper examines the theory of purchasing power parity about the exchange rate of the dollar with local currencies in MENA countries - the Middle East and North Africa - using a unit root test established on the quantile auto regressive model during the period 1980-2017. This test, like other unit root tests, uses auto regressive model, unlike other methods that emphasize the mean of the dependent variable, this test employees different variables or quantiles for estimating the regression. If the theory of purchasing power parity is in place, the real exchange rate will be stationary. According to the results of quantile unit root test, the real exchange rate for dollar in all countries except the four countries of Morocco, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Jordan has a unit root and is not stationary. Therefore, except for the four countries mentioned, the theory of purchasing power parity is not true in other studied countries. This result could be due to the difference in macroeconomic conditions and less flexibility of the foreign exchange system in these countries compared to developed countries.<br style="font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: -webkit-auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;" />

https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_5549_4859f0ed1dde57b33a4374b82932d6bc.pdf

Shiraz University Iranian Journal of Economic Studies 2322-1402 8 2 2020 03 19 Investigating the Behavior of Individual Business Taxpayers: Behavioral Economics Approach بررسی رفتار مالیاتی مودیان بخش مشاغل: رهیافت اقتصاد رفتاری 265 281 5548 10.22099/ijes.2020.33336.1566 EN Yeganeh Mousavi Jahromi Department of Economics, Faculty of Management, Economics &amp; Accounting, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran Sahar Dehghan National Tax Administration Journal Article 2019 04 27 In Direct Tax Act, penalties and incentives are two strategies for realization of the expected tax revenues. In this study the interaction between individual businesses taxpayers' behaviors and National Tax Administration is investigated by using prospect theory which is based on behavioral economics approach. For this purpose, the structure of the tax compliance of the mentioned taxpayers is evaluated via the changes in penalty and incentive rates. In this way, a special questionnaire regarding the items of individual businesses sector of Direct Tax Act was designed for tax compliance evaluating and the results obtained using Bayesian Hierarchical method. The results indicate that the investigated individual business taxpayers, at all income levels were more sensitive toward incentive rates, so that this result can be useful for tax policymakers.

https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_5548_a7c61499555e09f7348b327da8207644.pdf

Shiraz University Iranian Journal of Economic Studies 2322-1402 8 2 2020 03 30 Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policies for a Non-Inflationary Exit from Stagnation in Iran: A DSGE Approach سیاست های پولی و مالی بهینه با تاکید بر خروج غیرتورمی از رکود در ایران: رویکرد الگوهای تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی 283 314 5547 10.22099/ijes.2020.35291.1620 EN Iman Rousta Department of Economics, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran. Ebrahim Hadian Department of Economics, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran. Ali Hussein Samadi Department of Economics, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran. Parviz Rostamzadeh Department of Economics, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran. Journal Article 2019 10 25 The purpose of this paper is to investigate the optimal monetary and fiscal policies with emphasis on a non-inflationary exit from economic stagnation in Iran. In the first stage, Iran’s economy has been modeled in the form of a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model (NK-DSGE). After modeling and extracting the system of equations, the structural parameters of the model have been estimated by using seasonal data from 1989 to 2016 and also the Bayesian approach. The results show that monetary and fiscal expansionary policies increase production though they are associated with inflation. In the second stage, the optimal monetary and fiscal rules have been extracted from a social loss function, and accordingly the conditions of a non-inflationary exit from stagnation have been investigated. The results of the simulation show that the optimal monetary policy cannot by itself lead to the exit of the economy from stagnation without inflation. However, if this policy is applied along with an optimal fiscal policy, a non-inflationary exit from economic stagnation can be achieved.

https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_5547_87bff868b63ebf0aa96519196a213c79.pdf

Shiraz University Iranian Journal of Economic Studies 2322-1402 8 2 2020 05 31 Strategic Export Subsidies under Product Differentiation یارانه‌های صادراتی استراتژیک تحت محصولات متمایز 315 334 5669 10.22099/ijes.2020.35423.1623 EN Younes Brumand Department of Economics, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran Kiumars Shahbazi Department of Economics, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran Journal Article 2019 11 05 This paper focuses on strategic trade policy in the form of export subsidies in Cournot duopoly structure for differentiated goods. Export subsidies affect social welfare in both static and dynamic situations , and the aim of this paper is to analyze and compare the welfare effects of export subsidies in one-period and multi-period games in differentiated goods markets. To analyze the welfare effects of export subsidies, a two-stage game of complete but inperfect information is considered. In the first stage, two governments determine the amount of export subsidies and in the second stage, two firms determine the product level. The results show that, given that the firms’ competitiveness do not differ so much, export subsidies by both governments increase the firms’ profits and decrease social welfare of both countries. In an infinitely repeated game with different discount factors for both countries, and by adopting trigger strategy, we create some conditions, in which both governments commit free trade. However, if the competitiveness of one firm is so greater than the other, free trade using trigger strategy is not stable and the country with more competitive firm has incentive to deviate.

https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_5669_f86349a4ee751c2bdb528f06ca70a88e.pdf

Shiraz University Iranian Journal of Economic Studies 2322-1402 8 2 2020 06 13 The Process of Developing an Innovative Medical Tourism Business in Iran فرایند توسعه کسب وکارنوآورانه در حوزه گردشگری پزشکی در ایران 335 348 5671 10.22099/ijes.2020.33886.1579 EN Tayebeh Nikraftar Business Department, Faculty of Entrepreneurship, University of Tehran,Tehran, Iran. Nazanin Falahati Business Department, Faculty of Entrepreneurship, University of Tehran,Tehran, Iran. Journal Article 2019 06 08 The aim of this paper was to investigate the processes of organizational innovation in medical tourism businesses. Specifically, this research aimed to answer: ―What is the process of developing medical tourism businesses in a developing country like Iran?‖ For this purpose, a grounded theory approach was used. In-depth interviews were conducted with fifteen medical tourism entrepreneurs who had experienced the above mentioned process. Analyzing the structure of values and interactions of entrepreneurs with others through their interviews led to the formation of an intermediate theory. The pattern obtained from this study shows that the main category that led to innovations among the studied medical tourism businesses was entrepreneurs’ tendency to create entrepreneurial activities, that is an innovative initiative. Based on our findings, should an innovative entrepreneur be affected by intermediate and environmental conditions, he or she introduces specific strategies to effectively carry out entrepreneurial activities that are discussed in this paper.

https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_5671_9e6b53c7c320e6e86495ae5f90681542.pdf

Shiraz University Iranian Journal of Economic Studies 2322-1402 8 2 2020 06 22 A Descriptive Model of Resilient Economy: A Discourse Analysis of the Language Utilized by the Supreme Leader of Islamic Republic of Iran الگوی توصیفی از اقتصاد مقاومتی: تحلیل گفتمان از سخنان رهبر معظم انقلاب اسلامی ایران 349 373 5709 10.22099/ijes.2020.35850.1632 EN Seyyed Mohammad Ali Soozandehfar Department of Teaching English as a Foreign Language (TEFL), University of Hormozgan, Bandar Abbas, Iran 0000-0002-5625-3731 Marzieh Souzandehfar Department of Translation Studies, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Jahrom University, Jahrom, Fars, Iran Journal Article 2019 12 24 This investigation is an endeavor to appraise the language of Resilient economy aiming at modeling it discursively for the first time in Iran. In this vein, postulating the thematic analysis proposed by Ary et al. (2010) as the analytical framework, this study integrated the concepts utilized in the discourse of Resilient economy extracted from various materials, articles, excerpts, interviews, and questionnaires through diverse qualitative techniques such as open, axial, and selective codifications. Moreover, to select a subset of common concepts and remove the redundant ones, factor analysis was applied as a quantitative technique. The findings elucidated two major theoretical views, i.e. macroscopic and microscopic. Macroscopic view accounts for the themes of history and philosophy behind Resilient economy, while microscopic view illuminates four themes of requirements, principles, objectives, and application procedures, which altogether comprised a model describing Resilient economy in the Iranian context. In the denouement, it was concluded that Resilient economy is the essence of Islamic and monotheistic economy where justice, fairness, democracy and knowledge shine as its premises, conducive to bolstering independence, flourish, innovation, entrepreneurship, and constant success and growth. Parenthetically, the study proposed some implications for economics teachers and discourse analysts at the end.

https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_5709_83db30815cca5db3c81b5b4ef4964320.pdf

Shiraz University Iranian Journal of Economic Studies 2322-1402 8 2 2020 06 24 Identification and Prioritization of Public-Private Partnership Indicators in Iran’s Water and Wastewater Industry via Data Mining Algorithms شناسایی و اولویت‌بندی شاخص‌های مشارکت عمومی- خصوصی در صنعت آب و فاضلاب ایران با استفاده از الگوریتم‌های داده‌کاوی 375 396 5713 10.22099/ijes.2020.35590.1625 EN Malihe Eskandary College of Management and Accounting, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran. Mohammad Taghi Taghavifard College of Management and Accounting, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran. Iman Raeesi Vanani College of Management and Accounting, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran. Soroush Ghazi Noori College of Management and Accounting, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran. Journal Article 2019 11 27 The restrictions of government resources and the recent alterations in the economy have prompted government agencies to employ the capacities of private sector in all infrastructures. In this regard, a variety of financing methods, including the participatory models, have been applied for many years in the water and wastewater industry of Iran. The aim of this study is to identify and prioritize the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) indicators in the water and wastewater industry of Iran via machine learning techniques. To this end, after collecting, preparing and preprocessing the data, weighted indexing techniques including information gain and Gini index were utilized to prioritize the PPP factors. The results indicated that 93% of the indicators were effective in predicting the success of the projects. To compare the two methods, the precision of Naïve Bayes and Random Forest classifiers were taken into account and the information gain method yielded more reasonable findings with one percent difference. The evaluation of indicators elucidated that "complaints about service quality," "contract type," and "Conventional tariffs" revealed a huge impact on the success of collaborative projects. Among the 15 indicators, eight were directly pertinent to the project financing which is the main concern in this industry.

https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_5713_fd6e7ddcb35717612c4f4b22d999fe38.pdf

Shiraz University Iranian Journal of Economic Studies 2322-1402 8 2 2020 06 24 Culinary Tourism Development Based on Marketing Mix Strategy : The Case of Khorasan Razavi Province توسعه گردشگری غذا مبتنی بر آمیخته بازاریابی (مورد مطالعه: خراسان رضوی) 397 419 5715 10.22099/ijes.2020.33944.1582 EN Younos Vakil Alroaia Assistant Prof. and Chairman, Entrepreneurship and Commercialization Research Center, Department of Management, Semnan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Semnan, Iran Zahra Zolfaghari MSc in Tourism Management, Faculty of Tourism, Semnan University , Semnan, Iran Mohammad Reza Sotoudeh Faculty of Economics & Management, University of Semnan, Semnan, Iran Journal Article 2019 06 14 Food is considered as an integral part of tourism experience, and culinary tourism is a relatively new concept in the tourism industry. Culinary tourism deals with cookery, cuisines, and food ways of a country, region, or locale as a unique and memorable activity. The present study was aimed to prioritize factors influencing culinary tourism development using marketing mix strategy in Khorasan Razavi province, Iran. This applied research was performed by descriptive–survey method. The population consisted of experts in tourism and hotel management as well as experts in food industry, cookery, and restaurant management. Using stratified random sampling, first 200 participants were selected to fill the questionnaire, in order to identify effective factors, and then, 10 experts were asked to rank these factors. Confirmatory factor analysis and Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process were employed to analyze the data. Findings of the study suggested that, among the four marketing mix strategies, price-related factors with a normal weight of 0.033 ranked first, and in terms of sub criteria related to study dimensions, matching prices to product quality and branding of local food products with a weight of 0.095 and 0.093, respectively were identified as the top factors influencing culinary tourism development.

https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_5715_28ba2791960c924ffddbcd0360d293f6.pdf

Shiraz University Iranian Journal of Economic Studies 2322-1402 8 2 2020 06 24 Government Size and Happiness Inequality: A Threshold Panel Approach اندازه دولت و نابرابری شادی: رویکرد پانل آستانه ای 421 439 5551 10.22099/ijes.2020.35323.1621 EN Ebrahim Zare Department of Economics, College of Economics and Management, Shiraz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Shiraz, Iran. Mehrzad Ebrahimi Department of Economics, College of Economics and Management, Shiraz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Shiraz, Iran. Abbas Aminifard Department of Economics, College of Economics and Management, Shiraz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Shiraz, Iran. Hashem Zare Department of Economics, College of Economics and Management, Shiraz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Shiraz, Iran. Journal Article 2019 10 27 The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between government size and happiness inequality in a number of developing and developed countries during the period of 2002-2015 by threshold panel approach. To obtain robust results, we have applied the model in the Iran’s economy by time series data during the period of 1974-2016. The results in developing countries showed that in small governments, the government size had a diminutive effect on the inequality of happiness, but by passing the threshold and increasing the government's involvement in the economy, this variable had no significant effect on the happiness inequality. The same time series results were obtained for Iran’s economy, which has a small government size. In this group, the government size has a significant negative impact on happiness inequality and after that, it has a significant positive impact on happiness inequality. Developed countries showed completely different results, whereby the size of the government had a significant positive impact on inequality in small governments but in large governments, it did not have a significant effect on the inequality of happiness.

https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_5551_450f01840e890f75369ab5a0aad6be82.pdf

Shiraz University Iranian Journal of Economic Studies 2322-1402 8 2 2020 06 24 Managed Floating Exchange Rate Regime and Policy Evaluation for Iran رژیم نرخ ارز شناور مدیریت شده و ارزیابی سیاستی برای ایران 441 462 5546 10.22099/ijes.2020.33990.1583 EN Kiomars Sohaili Department of Economics, , Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran. Alireza Erfani Department of Economics, ,Semnan University, Semnan, Iran. Yousef Hayati Department of Economics, ,Semnan University, Semnan, Iran. Journal Article 2019 06 18 Exchange rate fluctuations have a major role on business cycles. Due to this degree of importance, this paper analyzed the effects of managed floating exchange rate regime on dynamics of some macroeconomics variables of Iran. To do this, we design a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for Iran and then using quarterly data over 1989-2016 and Bayesian method, the structural parameters of the model have been estimated. By employing conditional forecasting, our results show that managed floating exchange rate regime, compared with fixed regime, brings more economic growth and at the same time, less speculative activities in money and exchange markets. Moreover, the results from variance decomposition reveal that exchange rate shocks are the most important shock in deriving business cycles and fluctuations of other variables. Based on these finding, we propose policymaker to choose managed floating exchange rate regime as its policy rule.

https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_5546_c54fed262e0e9bac0cf3e4a94b3a5bb7.pdf

Shiraz University Iranian Journal of Economic Studies 2322-1402 8 2 2020 06 24 Designing a Competency Model Based on the New Leadership Literacies in the Economic Area: a Qualitative Content Analysis طراحی الگوی شایستگی‌های مبتنی بر سوادهای جدید رهبری در حوزه اقتصادی - رویکرد تحلیل محتوای کیفی 463 493 5550 10.22099/ijes.2020.34030.1584 EN Mehdi Mohammadi Faculty of Education & Psychology, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran Zahra Nouraie Salek Faculty of Education & Psychology, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran Ghasem Salimi Faculty of Education & Psychology, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran Jafar Jahani Faculty of Education & Psychology, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran Journal Article 2019 06 24 The current skills of leaders will not be enough to succeed in future. Future leaders should be equipped with new literacies. This study intend to generate the new pattern of the new leadership literacies of senior managers of economic areas. The method of research was qualitative content analysis and reference data of research included the books of Hames (2007) and Johansen (2017), which were completely studied. Unit of analysis was theme. The study findings included 184 basic themes in the top ten themes of literacy organizers: 1.’Networked Intelligence’: Adaptation through learning; 2.‘Futuring’: to cope better with complexity; 3.’Strategic Navigation’: helping to assure the long-term viability of the whole system; 4.’Deep Design’: continuous consciousness; 5.’Brand Resonance’: Viral forms of communication; 6.’Looking Backward from the Future’: Clarity; 7.’Voluntary Fear Engagement’: turning fear into something positive; 8.‘Leadership for Shape-Shifting Organizations’: liquid leadership; 9.’Being There When You’re Not There’: very skilled at choosing the best media for communicating, and 10.’Creating and Sustaining Positive Energy’: balancing their own personal energy. In the new era, administrators equipped with new literacies, would help them develop the organization, their subordinates, and respond to the environment and gain competitive advantage.

https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_5550_8de687294ef2a87a26faa3808fb899e2.pdf

Shiraz University Iranian Journal of Economic Studies 2322-1402 8 2 2019 12 01 Persian Abstracts چکیده های فارسی 6103 10.22099/ijes.2019.6103 EN Journal Article 2021 04 19 https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_6103_0b62b468c80871a9e611e70836948a80.pdf