Shiraz University Iranian Journal of Economic Studies 2322-1402 14 1 2025 09 01 Fiscal Shocks, Economic Growth, and Income Inequality in Iran: A DSGE Model Analysis with Emphasis on Human Capital 7 31 8127 10.22099/ijes.2025.52866.2027 EN Narjes Salam Department of Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran.Department of Economics, Damascus University, Damascus, Syria. Majid Sameti Department of Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran. Monireh Rafat Department of Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran. Abboud Shaheed Department of Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran.Department of Economics and International economic Relations, University of Aleppo, Aleppo, Syria. Journal Article 2025 04 05 This study examines how tax shocks, government spending shocks, and government bond interest rate shocks impact economic growth and income inequality in Iran, emphasizing human capital as a mediating factor. We develop a New Keynesian DSGE model, incorporating households, firms, the foreign trade, the oil sector, the central bank, and the government. Using Bayesian methods and annual data from 2004 to 2023, we estimate model parameters to capture economic dynamics robustly. The results indicate that economic growth and income inequality are inversely related. Specifically, tax increases, spending cuts, and higher bond interest rates hinder growth, reduce human capital accumulation, and exacerbate inequality— highlighting the need for targeted fiscal reforms. To address these challenges, we propose three policy recommendations: First, broadening the tax base by enhancing compliance and formalizing the informal sector, rather than raising tax rates. Second, improving the efficiency of public spending by reallocating resources to high-impact sectors and replacing blanket subsidies with targeted cash transfers. Third, reducing reliance on high-interest bonds and shifting toward public-private partnerships (PPPs). By integrating these shocks into a DSGE model for Iran’s growth-inequality nexus, this study provides novel insights, underscoring the overlooked role of human capital in shaping economic outcomes. https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8127_7aeec5f645606a15d3a475a24d4bd860.pdf

Shiraz University Iranian Journal of Economic Studies 2322-1402 14 1 2025 09 27 Education and Economic Growth in Iran: A Meta-Analysis 33 60 8109 10.22099/ijes.2024.46953.1899 EN Vahid Mehrbani Faculty of Psychology and Educational Sciences, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran. Journal Article 2023 03 03 This is the first meta-analysis for the effect of education on economic growth in Iran and represents some evidence exclusively with regard to effect size. The purpose of this paper is to provide a clear and unified picture of the impact of education on Iran’s economic growth by combining different studies. This study undertakes a meta-analysis based on a sample of 57 studies with the period of coverage 2000-2021 and applies the Stouffer’s method to present p-values. After separating the patterns into two logarithmic and non-logarithmic formats, as well as classifying the variables of education and obtaining the least significant probabilities of their coefficients, the effect of education is investigated. The study indicates that the three indicators of education such as secondary enrollment rate, the share of trained employees in the total number of employees, and the ratio of students to the total population have a positive and significant effect on economic growth, so that their increase by one percent will cause economic growth by respectively 0.28, 0.19 and 0.84 percent. Therefore, the government should pay special attention to investing in secondary education and targeting employment for high school graduates in the labor market and avoid over-investing in higher education. https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8109_e99895983c59f5b221f0f8180fc459ea.pdf

Shiraz University Iranian Journal of Economic Studies 2322-1402 14 1 2025 09 23 Evaluating Oil- and Gold-Backed Cryptocurrencies in Sanctioned Economies: Valuation, Stability, and Cryptographic Dimensions 61 80 8300 10.22099/ijes.2025.54255.2061 EN Mohsen Mehrara Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran. Asghar Balsini Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran. Saeid Tajdini Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran. Seung Wook Jung Department of Smart Security, Konyang University, Nonsan, Republic of Korea. Hussein Aghajani Kalkhouran Department of Computer Science, Electronics and Telecommunications, AGH University of Science and Technology, Kraków, Poland. Majid Lotfi Ghahroud Department of Smart Security, Konyang University, Nonsan, Republic of Korea. Journal Article 2025 09 11 Countries facing high inflation and sanctions, particularly resource-rich economies such as Iran and Venezuela, may benefit from resource-backed cryptocurrencies as tools for monetary stability. In this study, global oil and gold prices were converted into the Iranian Rial using the free-market U.S. dollar exchange rate. We assess the viability of a crude oil-pegged digital asset using daily data on Iran’s free-market exchange rates, global gold prices, and the Rial value of crude oil. Applying Jensen’s conditional dynamic alpha and GARCH-modeled volatility, we find that gold consistently outperforms the U.S. dollar in risk-adjusted returns, supporting the case for dual oil- and gold-backing. Integrating gold into an oil-backed cryptocurrency enhances stability and resilience against macroeconomic shocks. To ensure credibility and transparency, we examine cryptographic mechanisms including zero-knowledge reserve proofs, secure oracles, and smart contract governance. The results provide a replicable valuation framework for resource-backed cryptocurrencies, demonstrate their potential to deliver stable, risk-adjusted returns, and offer policy-relevant insights for sanctioned or inflation-prone economies with natural resources seeking alternative monetary instruments. This study contributes to the literature on asset-backed digital currencies by combining financial modeling with cryptographic design, highlighting the role of multi-commodity collateralization in strengthening decentralized monetary systems under economic and geopolitical constraints. https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8300_a4b4025b845da17c1c6cb60e76daff4f.pdf

Shiraz University Iranian Journal of Economic Studies 2322-1402 14 1 2025 09 23 Analyzing and Extending the Capital Market Line: Implications for International Trade 81 100 8343 10.22099/ijes.2025.54449.2068 EN Arash Aezami Department of Management and Economics, SR.C, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran. Mahmood Hematfar Department of Accounting, Boroojerd Branch, Islamic Azad University, Boroojerd, Iran. Maryam Khalili Araghi Department of Management and Economics, SR.C, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran. Journal Article 2025 10 03 This paper extends the classical Capital Market Line (CML) framework by incorporating strategic interactions between international investors and host countries through a game-theoretic model. The extended model introduces key behavioral and institutional variables, notably the degree of hostility (ρ), economic power asymmetry, and relative risk-return dynamics across domestic and foreign markets. The investor seeks optimal capital allocation based on expected return and perceived risk, while the host country aims to retain capital by enhancing domestic market attractiveness and minimizing political hostility. The equilibrium analysis shows that the investor’s decision is highly sensitive to relative returns and external risk, while the host country’s utility is most affected by the degree of hostility and its relative economic power. The results confirm that minimizing political antagonism and enhancing institutional cooperation significantly increases domestic utility and stabilizes capital inflows. Ultimately, this paper provides a more realistic and dynamic interpretation of the CML by integrating macro-financial and geopolitical dimensions, and it suggests that peaceful economic diplomacy and sound macroeconomic policies are crucial for sustainable investment and trade flows. https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8343_4d844682cb2fe061ce4edcbe5f27f7a3.pdf

Shiraz University Iranian Journal of Economic Studies 2322-1402 14 1 2025 09 23 Short- and Long-Term Drivers of Tax Evasion in Iran: Evidence from a Hybrid WALS–CWT Framework 101 120 8344 10.22099/ijes.2025.53412.2043 EN Mehdi Shirafkan Lamsoo Department of Economics, Chabahar Maritime University, Chabahar, Iran. Mojtaba Abbasian Department of Economics, Chabahar Maritime University, Chabahar, Iran. Journal Article 2025 06 03 Tax evasion is a multifaceted issue influenced by a range of political, economic, and sociocultural factors. This study examines the dynamics of tax evasion in Iran using a hybrid methodological framework. Utilizing annual data from 1991 to 2022, we apply the Weighted Average Least Squares (WALS) approach to identify the most robust determinants of tax evasion, followed by a time-frequency analysis using Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) to examine their temporal behavior. The WALS results highlight inflation as the most influential factor in driving tax evasion. Furthermore, wavelet-based analysis reveals that while economic variables exert more substantial short-term effects, social and cultural variables demonstrate more sustained, long-term impacts. This temporal distinction suggests that behavioral and value-based reforms take longer to influence taxpayer behavior than policies based on monetary incentives or punitive enforcement. Given the variability in both the strength and timing of these influences, the findings underscore the importance of designing a multi-layered policy response. Policymakers are advised to implement an integrated strategy that combines short-, medium-, and long-term interventions, with a particular focus on non-fragile variables that consistently shape tax evasion patterns. https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8344_9d26ab0ea530a7c9be9d37d341f248fc.pdf

Shiraz University Iranian Journal of Economic Studies 2322-1402 14 1 2025 09 23 A Novel Multi-Algorithm Stacking Framework for Enhanced Credit Risk Management 121 137 8352 10.22099/ijes.2025.54179.2058 EN Younes Nademi Department of Economics, Ayatollah Boroujerdi University, Boroujerd. Iran. Sayyed Mohammad Hoseini Gahar Artificial Intelligence Research Group, Ayatollah Boroujerdi University, Boroujerd, Iran. Majid Ebtia Zagros Data Sciences Research Group, Ayatollah Boroujerdi University, Boroujerd, Iran. Faranak Ahmadi Department of Computer Engineering,, Ayatollah Boroujerdi University, Boroujerd, Iran. Journal Article 2025 09 04 Redit risk prediction remains a central challenge for financial institutions because inaccurate assessments can cause substantial financial losses and systemic instability. This study introduces a multi‑level stacking ensemble that combines Gradient Boosting, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Random Forest as base learners with logistic regression as the meta‑learner. To address class imbalance, we do not use synthetic resampling; instead, we apply a class‑management protocol based on fold‑wise class‑weighting, probability calibration, and operating‑point tuning to ensure fair treatment of the minority (default) class without introducing synthetic examples. The approach was evaluated on two UCI benchmark datasets (German and Australian credit) using a fixed train/test split and stratified 10‑fold cross‑validation on the training set for model selection; final models were retrained on the full training set and assessed on a held‑out test set. Results show the stacked ensemble consistently outperforms individual base learners on balanced metrics including F1 and Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC) while preserving interpretability via calibrated base‑learner probabilities and inspectable logistic meta‑coefficients. An empirical analysis of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) reveals dataset‑dependent effects: PCA can benefit simpler classifiers but may reduce performance for interaction‑sensitive ensembles. The paper provides a practical deployment blueprint covering class‑management placement, probability calibration before meta‑learning, and cost‑aware evaluation tailored to credit‑risk operations. https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8352_464339c39c6eb265d52939f39ad578ae.pdf

Shiraz University Iranian Journal of Economic Studies 2322-1402 14 1 2025 09 23 Nonlinear Analysis of Inflation’s Impact on Asset Markets (Stocks,Coin, Gold, Housing) Using a Time-Varying Parameter VAR (TVP-VAR) Model 139 162 8342 10.22099/ijes.2025.54468.2069 EN Mohammad Jafari Department of Economics, Semnan University, Semnan , Iran. Alireza Erfani Department of Economics, Semnan University, Semnan , Iran. Journal Article 2025 10 06 Asset markets play a pivotal role in dynamic economies by facilitating resource allocation, preserving wealth value, and shaping expectations about the future. Their fluctuations can exert broad effects on investment behavior and economic growth. In the case of Iran—an economy characterized by chronic inflation and recurrent shocks—understanding the effects of inflation on asset markets such as stocks, coin, gold, and housing is of particular importance. The nature of Iran’s economy, marked by diverse shocks and structural changes, renders the relationships between inflation and asset markets both dynamic and nonlinear.The objective of this study is to conduct a dynamic and nonlinear analysis of the impact of inflation on Iran’s asset markets and to examine the cross-market spillovers among them. To achieve this, monthly data spanning the period March 2011-February 2025 were collected from reliable sources and analyzed using the Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model within the Diebold–Yilmaz connectedness framework. This methodological approach allows for assessing time-varying dynamics in market behavior and the intensity of inflationary effects. The empirical findings reveal that inflation exerts its strongest influence on the gold and coin markets, which act as safe havens against inflationary shocks. The housing market demonstrates a weaker yet statistically significant response, while the stock market exhibits the lowest sensitivity to inflation fluctuations. Moreover, substantial cross-market spillovers are observed during inflationary periods, intensifying under crisis conditions. https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8342_a578151ad31489ef8c00f912a8ea143d.pdf

Shiraz University Iranian Journal of Economic Studies 2322-1402 14 1 2025 08 23 Quantile Regression Analysis of Household Energy Demand in Iran Using Income-Expenditure National Survey (2016-2023); Heterogeneity and Key Characteristics 163 200 8368 10.22099/ijes.2025.54147.2057 EN Shahram Moeeni Faculty of Administration sciences and Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran. Maryam Moeeni Department of Management, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran. Amir Mohammad Reihani Faculty of Administration sciences and Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran. Journal Article 2025 09 01 Iran faces pressing challenges in managing household energy consumption, This study addresses whether Iranian household energy demand is heterogeneous across different levels of consumption for the first time and explores the influence of key household characteristics on energy demand. Using micro-level data from over 126,000 households from the Iranian Household Income and Expenditure Survey, we estimate separate demand equations for electricity and gas using quantile regression. This approach reveals that both price and income elasticities, as well as the effects of household characteristics variables, vary significantly across the expenditure distribution. For example, income elasticity for electricity rises from 0.25 in the lowest decile to 0.32 in the highest, while own-price elasticity (in absolute value) is stronger for lower-consuming households (–0.60 at the 1st decile) than for the highest (–0.50 at the 9th decile). For gas, higher education of the household head is linked to reduced consumption, especially among high-use households. The quantile regression estimates indicate that, controlling for other factors, rural households tend to have higher gas expenditures, while urban households tend to have higher electricity expenditures, reflecting underlying differences in energy use patterns. Our findings confirm that Iranian household energy demand is highly heterogeneous: household characteristics variables such as age, homeownership, household size, and dwelling area exert varying influences depending on expenditure level and energy type. These results underscore the importance of targeted, data-driven policies—such as differentiated pricing or subsidy reforms—that consider the diversity of household responses across the distribution. https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8368_f3baede3f491f725c157b96c7495af42.pdf

Shiraz University Iranian Journal of Economic Studies 2322-1402 14 1 2025 08 23 Simulating The Effects of Emission Trading on The Structural Change in The Iran's Economy 201 242 8379 10.22099/ijes.2025.54213.2059 EN Maryam Hosseinzadeh Faculty of Management and Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran. Akireza Shakibaee Faculty of Management and Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran. Mehdi Nejati Faculty of Management and Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran. 0000-0003-4103-869X Seyyed Abdolmajid Jalaee Faculty of Management and Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran. Journal Article 2025 09 07 Carbon emissions trading is one of the most important policy instruments for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, serving as an effective response to climate change, which has garnered global attention. Given the rising trend of carbon emissions in Iran and the country’s ranking as the sixth largest emitter of carbon dioxide globally, examining the impacts of implementing such a policy at both national and regional levels is highly important. In this study, utilizing a dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model, the regional carbon market between Iran and selected trading partners (China, India, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates) was simulated for the 2050 horizon, and its impacts on Iran’s environmental performance, income, structural changes, and gross domestic product (GDP) were evaluated. Results showed that implementing the carbon market would lead to a 40.29% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions in Iran and a 3.33% decline in GDP. The output share of the fossil-fuel-based power sector, energy-intensive industries, and services decreased by 15.79%, 7.13%, and 2.65%, respectively, whereas electricity from renewable energy increased by 22.1%. Furthermore, due to lower emissions than the assigned cap, Iran could earn an income of $ 10,162.89 million by selling surplus emission permits. This income could be used to develop renewable electricity generation and support industries in financing innovation enhancement and productivity improvement. Therefore, based on the results, developing the carbon emissions market is recommended to optimize Iran's energy structure and that of its major trading partners. https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8379_d998532e7d59a9dac0835ea051a8413c.pdf

Shiraz University Iranian Journal of Economic Studies 2322-1402 14 1 2025 08 23 The Impact of Consumption Stability on Income in Urban Households in Iran 243 266 8398 10.22099/ijes.2025.54586.2071 EN Alireza Keikha Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Zabol, Zabol, Iran. Alireza Sargazi Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Zabol, Zabol, Iran. Elahe Ahani Department of Accounting, Bozorgmehr University of Gaenat, Gaen, Iran. Journal Article 2025 10 19 In Iran, household consumption expenditure is a cornerstone of aggregate demand and a fundamental indicator of economic welfare. This study examines the extent of consumption instability among urban Iranian households and its bidirectional relationship with household income. Using nationally representative microdata from Iran’s 2024 Household Budget Survey and a combination of multivariate ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and quantile regression (QR) techniques, the analysis controls for key demographic and socioeconomic variables, including gender, experience, marital status, employment status, education level, and number of dependents. To measure consumption stability, a novel index is constructed based on the relative volatility of each household’s current expenditures, which are categorized into levels ranging from "very low" to "very high." The findings show that, of the 19,898 households in the sample, 19,611 (98%) are classified as "very low" and 286 (2%) as "low"; none are classified as "moderate" or higher. Quantile regression results indicate that the effect of consumption stability on household income is statistically significant and positive across the 0.25, 0.5, and 0.75 income quantiles (p < 0.05, and in some cases, p < 0.01). However, this effect is highly asymmetric; a one-unit increase in the consumption stability index results in income gains that are over 60% larger for high-income households (0.75 quantile) than for low-income households (0.25 quantile). This pattern reveals a self-reinforcing "welfare cycle" among affluent households coexisting with a "consumption instability trap" for low-income groups. https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8398_1e3dfe011bd61ffb7b48f8702fe8f918.pdf

Shiraz University Iranian Journal of Economic Studies 2322-1402 14 1 2025 08 23 Beyond the Mainstream: Ostrom's Polycentric Governance as a Pragmatist–Institutionalist Synthesis 267 286 8382 10.22099/ijes.2025.54386.2066 EN Nasser Elahi Department of Economics, Mofid University, Qom, Iran. Journal Article 2025 09 29 The dominant narrative in economics, shaped by the "tragedy of the commons," prescribes state intervention or privatization as the only solutions to collective action problems. Elinor Ostrom’s work, documenting sustainable common-pool resource governance, poses a profound challenge to this orthodoxy. Yet, her theoretical legacy remains contested. This article moves beyond viewing Ostrom as an empirical anomaly within mainstream economics, offering instead a heterodox reconstruction of her work as a coherent pragmatist–institutionalist synthesis. We argue that Ostrom’s method is grounded in Charles S. Peirce’s logic of abduction and fallibilism, while her normative commitments align with John Dewey’s experimental democracy and experiential learning. Situating her within the classical institutionalist tradition (Veblen, Commons, Mitchell) and contrasting her approach with the New Institutionalism (Williamson, North, Coase), we demonstrate that her analysis of polycentric governance represents a distinct paradigm. A comparative re-reading of her canonical case studies—Nepalese irrigation, Swiss forests, and Turkish fisheries—reveals how local knowledge, participatory rule-making, and iterative correction function as mechanisms for reducing transaction costs and building resilient institutions. The article concludes by outlining a robust policy and research agenda for climate, digital, and urban governance, arguing that a pragmatist–institutionalist reading of Ostrom provides not merely a corrective, but a viable heterodox alternative to market- and state-centric models, one that prioritizes pluralism, adaptive efficiency, and democratic legitimacy. https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8382_7b52267f7fd95182c49b6330b5148f90.pdf

Shiraz University Iranian Journal of Economic Studies 2322-1402 14 1 2025 08 23 Modeling the Economic Complexity of Iran and Other MENA Countries 287 310 8334 10.22099/ijes.2025.53975.2055 EN Leila Akhgari Faculty of Economics, Aras International Campus of the University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran. Qahreman Abdoli Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran. Mohsen Mehrara Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran. Reza Mohseni Faculty of Economics and Political Sciences, University of Shahid Beheshti, Tehran, Iran. Journal Article 2025 08 17 The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has been reliant on advanced nations for economic growth and development, despite the fact that they possess rich and valuable resources that could serve as primary drivers. This is due to deficiencies in technology, infrastructure, and other capabilities, which have resulted in an ever-widening gap between the two. The emigration of a highly skilled workforce to developed countries, in conjunction with the sale of raw, inexpensive natural resources, has effectively rendered these nations informal dependencies on more advanced economies, thereby maintaining them at a minimal subsistence level. Economists have devised a novel metric, the Economic Complexity Index (ECI), to account for the development disparities between countries. A sound and principled comprehension of the ECI is essential for the enhancement of the resilience of national economies and the attainment of sustainable development in an era characterized by technology and innovation. This study employs the ECI to evaluate the status of MENA countries from 2007 to 2023 and to identify the most significant factors that influence it. The results suggest that the index is positively and significantly influenced by key variables such as human capital, high-technology products, governance quality, . Conversely, the trade balance and migration has a negative impact. https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8334_66804ce61e811db8b45e6012e52898b9.pdf