Shiraz University Iranian Journal of Economic Studies 2322-1402 14 2 2026 02 20 Assessing the Competitiveness of Renewable Power Plants in Iran’s Electricity Market under Renewable Energy Certificates (REC) and Power Plant Fuel Price Reform (PFR): A Stackelberg Game Theory Approach 323 373 8409 10.22099/ijes.2025.54626.2073 EN Majid Raoofmehr Department of Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran. 0009-0004-4868-6766 Zeinolabedin Sadeghi Department of Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran. Seyyed Abdolmajid Jalaee Department of Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran. Journal Article 2025 10 23 In an electricity market where hidden fuel subsidies have strengthened the position of thermal power plants and the lack of stable support mechanisms has constrained renewable growth, this study evaluates the impact of implementing two complementary policies, Power Plant Fuel Price Reform (PFR) and Renewable Energy Certificates (REC), on the competitiveness of renewable generation units in Iran. A theoretical framework based on Stackelberg game theory is developed, with the thermal plant as leader and the renewable plant as follower. To validate the model, sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulation are employed. Two scenarios are analyzed: competition between a conventional thermal unit and a solar plant, and between a thermal unit and a wind plant. Since a formal REC market has not been established in Iran, REC price is estimated using the Levelized Cost of Electricity Gap (LCOE–Gap) approach, reflecting the difference between renewable costs and expected market price. The results show that PFR raises the marginal cost of thermal generation, reducing its output and profit. REC enhances both output and profitability of renewable units. Combined, these policies shift market share toward renewables, increase consumer surplus, and improve social welfare. These outcomes remain robust across assumptions. The proposed model, with its behavioral clarity and calibrability, provides a tool for designing policy packages that support the transition toward a competitive, low-carbon, and equitable electricity market in Iran and other developing economies. https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8409_3c5f3fe9e996e7a8907d34195efb41b9.pdf

Shiraz University Iranian Journal of Economic Studies 2322-1402 14 2 2026 02 20 Impact of Food Security on Households’ Welfare in Nigeria 375 398 8424 10.22099/ijes.2025.54646.2075 EN Abdullahi Buba Department of Economics, Gombe State University, Gombe, Nigeria. Abubakar Umar Wali Department of Economics, Gombe State University, Gombe, Nigeria. 0009-0002-2289-7544 Journal Article 2025 10 26 This study examines the impact of food security on household welfare in Nigeria, using data from Afrobarometer Wave 9. Welfare is proxied by respondent’s perceived living conditions, while food security is measured by the frequency of going without food. Additional controls include income deprivation, perceptions of government economic management, a multidimensional deprivation index, and demographic and spatial characteristics. A generalized ordered logistic regression model (gologit2) is employed to account for the ordinal nature of welfare and to relax the proportional-odds assumption for covariates that violate it. The results indicate that food insecurity has a significant and negative impact on household welfare across all model specifications. Respondents who frequently go without food are substantially less likely to report satisfactory living conditions, confirming the welfare-depressing effect of hunger. Similarly, lack of cash income significantly reduces perceived welfare, whereas favorable perceptions of government economic management improve outcomes. Education, particularly secondary attainment, enhances welfare, while employment effects vary across thresholds. Spatial disparities persist, with respondents in the South East and South South zones reporting lower welfare relative to the North Central region. The findings underscore that food security is a critical determinant of well-being in Nigeria, influencing both material and subjective dimensions of welfare. Policy interventions should prioritize improving food access, stabilizing household incomes, and strengthening governance to bolster economic confidence. Region-specific programs and targeted social protection measures are essential to achieve inclusive and sustainable welfare improvements. https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8424_91f93fdd0c5f543d33287e9d9c7bd30c.pdf

Shiraz University Iranian Journal of Economic Studies 2322-1402 14 2 2025 12 01 A Machine-Learning-Based Typology of Sustainable Development Pathways: Evidence from 19 Countries with a Special Focus on Iran 399 420 8442 10.22099/ijes.2025.54083.2081 EN Forough Esmaeily Sadrabadi Department of Economics, Ardakan University, Ardakan, Iran. Samineh Ghasemifar Department of Economics and Accounting, University of Hormozgan, Bandarabbas, Iran. 0000-0001-6005-6370 Journal Article 2025 11 22 This study introduces a novel, fully unsupervised, data-driven typology of national sustainability pathways, aiming to identify distinct development trajectories across countries and to precisely locate Iran within a global context. The innovative methodological approach integrates K-means clustering optimized with the silhouette score, t-SNE visualization for high-dimensional data representation, and hierarchical clustering for robustness validation, providing a comprehensive and objective framework for cross-country comparison. Five core indicators—GDP per capita, CO₂ emissions per capita, renewable energy share, energy intensity, and the Human Development Index (HDI)—are used for 19 selected countries over 2021–2025. This multidimensional approach captures economic, environmental, and social dimensions of sustainability, allowing a detailed assessment of each country’s performance and trajectory. The results reveal four distinct pathways. Iran clusters with fossil fuel-dependent emerging economies, including China, India, Turkey, Malaysia, and Thailand. Among these peers, Iran exhibits the lowest renewable energy share (1.1%) and the highest energy intensity, positioning it on the most extreme fossil-fuel-locked trajectory worldwide. In contrast, leading countries such as Sweden achieve 62.9% renewable energy share, emphasizing a significant sustainability gap. These findings provide policymakers with a clear benchmarking tool and identify three urgent priorities for Iran: accelerating renewable energy investment, gradually reforming fossil-fuel subsidies, and modernizing energy infrastructure. Implementing targeted reforms along these lines could enable Iran to transition toward a more resilient, competitive, and low-carbon development path, aligning economic growth with environmental sustainability. https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8442_d5c77e392dbc8b5eda28f408f0c4294a.pdf

Shiraz University Iranian Journal of Economic Studies 2322-1402 14 2 2025 12 01 Human Capital, Natural Resource Rents and Iran’s Load Capacity Factor: An ARDL–ECM Approach 421 442 8437 10.22099/ijes.2025.54854.2078 EN Mohammadreza Arefian Department of Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran. Abbas Assari Arani Department of Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran. Lotfali Agheli Department of Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran. Ali Asgary School of Administrative Studies, York University, Toronto, Canada. Journal Article 2025 11 13 Understanding the dynamics between economic growth and environmental sustainability—especially in natural-resource-dependent economies—is fundamental for achieving sustainable development. This study examines the determinants of environmental sustainability in Iran by analyzing the effects of GDP, human capital, energy efficiency, and natural resource rents on the load capacity factor (LCF—the ratio of biocapacity to ecological footprint) over 1990–2020 using an ARDL framework. Long-run results reveal statistically significant relationships consistent with theoretical expectations: GDP has a negative and sizable effect on LCF, indicating that the current energy- and extraction-intensive growth pattern exacerbates environmental pressure. Human capital exerts a positive and significant effect on LCF, highlighting the role of education and skills in improving productivity and sustainable resource management. Energy-efficiency indicators also show a relatively strong positive impact, suggesting that higher output per unit of energy consumption effectively enhances ecological sustainability. Conversely, natural resource rents negatively and significantly affect LCF, implying that reliance on extractive revenue undermines biocapacityvia mechanisms such as economic dependence on extraction and reduced incentives for innovation. The error-correction term (−0.634) is negative and significant, implying an annual adjustment of roughly 63% of short-run deviations back to the long-run equilibrium. Policy implications recommend prioritizing energy-efficiency improvements, targeted investment in specialized education and green technologies, economic diversification to reduce rent dependence, and the adoption of environmental pricing tools (e.g., carbon taxes or emissions trading) to better align economic growth with ecological sustainability. https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8437_ed68099e152e2e813eca40f2900c77fc.pdf

Shiraz University Iranian Journal of Economic Studies 2322-1402 14 2 2025 12 01 Evaluating The Effectiveness of Advanced Machine Learning Algorithms in Reducing Stock Trading Risk on The Iranian Stock Exchange 443 500 8439 10.22099/ijes.2025.54990.2083 EN Javad Zolfaghary Tabesh Department of Accounting, Ker.C., Islamic Azad University, Kermanshah, Iran. Babak Jamshidinavid Department of Accounting, Ker.C., Islamic Azad University, Kermanshah, Iran. Mehrdad Ghanbary Department of Accounting, Ker.C., Islamic Azad University, Kermanshah, Iran. Afshin Baghfalaki Department of Economics, Ker.C. Islamic Azad University, Kermanshah, Iran. Journal Article 2025 11 25 The primary objective of the present study was to thoroughly assess the efficiency of advanced machine learning algorithms in managing and mitigating stock trading risk in the Iranian capital market. Utilizing financial, economic, textual, and behavioral data from 172 companies over a 15-year period (2008–2023), this research estimated trading risk using advanced time-series models and modeled it against a total of 33 independent variables across five main dimensions. The methodology involved comparing the performance of six algorithmic families, ranging from simple regression to deep neural networks, in two scenarios: continuous prediction and risk level classification. The analysis of the results revealed that linear models performed very poorly due to the highly volatile and non-linear structure of the Iranian market. However, in the realm of non-linear methods, deep neural networks demonstrated the best capability for accurate and continuous risk prediction by recording the lowest error rates; this success is attributed to the ability of these models to identify long-term temporal patterns and the complex interaction of variables. In the section on classifying stocks into risk levels, algorithms based on gradient boosting decision trees achieved the highest efficiency with an accuracy exceeding 83% and were suggested as ideal tools for early warning systems. The analysis indicated that the primary drivers of risk volatility are macroeconomic variables (such as exchange rates and inflation), the effects of which are amplified by investor behavioral factors. Ultimately, this research confirms the significant and decisive superiority of advanced machine learning models over traditional approaches in analyzing risk within the Tehran Stock Exchange. https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8439_aaa5e5bde97745e02c4cfa5d7e64a576.pdf

Shiraz University Iranian Journal of Economic Studies 2322-1402 14 2 2025 12 01 Modeling the Short-Run and Long-Run Effects of Water Stress on Food Security in Iran: ARDL Approach 501 526 8466 10.22099/ijes.2025.54734.2076 EN Azadmehr Kahram Department of Economics, Fi.c., Islamic Azad University, Firoozkooh, Iran. Parvaneh Salatin Department of Economics, Fi.c., Islamic Azad University, Firoozkooh, Iran. Journal Article 2025 11 07 Providing food and proper nutrition is a prerequisite for development and health of society and is an important factor in establishing conditions of stability, prosperity, peace and security. Therefore, among the priorities of development goals, achieving food security is of particular importance and has always been emphasized by policymakers. In this regard the main objective of this article is to examine the extent to which water stress affects food security in Iran. Using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model over the period 1990–2023, our results reveal that water stress has a significant and negative impact on food security. Among the primary challenges to food security, water stress notably reduces agricultural yields—especially in irrigated regions. Diminished supply resulting from water scarcity drives up prices and lowers economic access to food. It also restricts the production of diverse and nutritious crops, thereby compromising dietary quality. Further model estimates indicate that energy security and agricultural credit positively and significantly enhance food security, whereas income inequality (measured by the Gini coefficient) exerts a significant negative effect. The error-correction coefficient suggests that approximately 72% of per-period disequilibrium is corrected in the subsequent period, indicating a robust and speedily adjusting return toward long-run equilibrium. https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8466_0fa0c67022d2b5b0f1531470a41cee61.pdf

Shiraz University Iranian Journal of Economic Studies 2322-1402 14 2 2025 12 01 The Role of Economic Development in Voting Behavior: Evidences from Iran's Presidential Elections 527 546 8519 10.22099/ijes.2026.55099.2087 EN Nejat Mohammadifar Department of Political Sciences, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Ardakan University, Ardakan, Iran. Iman Shaker Ardakani Department of Economics, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Ardakan University, Ardakan, Iran. Abolfazl Shahmohammadi Mehrjardi Department of Economics, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Ardakan University, Ardakan, Iran. Journal Article 2025 12 04 This research examines the relationship between economic development and the voting behavior of eligible voters in the presidential elections of the I.R.I. As well as analyzes the impact of development levels in Iranian regions on political participation. This study is applied in terms of its objective and analytic considering its subject matter. To this aim, the data and information required to examine the above relationship for the country's provinces in 9th to 13th presidential election periods were extracted from statistical yearbooks and reports of the Statistical Center of Iran. The panel data econometric method was used to determine this relationship. The independent variables of this research included the average composite index of economic development,  average of infrastructure index,  average of coefficient, and  average of inflation rate for 30 provinces of the country during the periods 2001-2005, 2006-2009, 2010-2013, 2014-2017, and 2018-2021. Also, the average of participation rate in presidential elections for each province was also considered as a dependent variable. The results of this study revealed that among the independent variables, the impact of the economic development index on the political participation rate was statistically positive and significant with a coefficient of 0.31, while the inflation rate had a negative and significant effect with a coefficient of -0.62. In other words, the negative influence of the inflation rate on the political participation rate was estimated to be twice the positive impact of economic development on the political participation rate in the country's provinces. This suggests that voters gave more value and weight to immediate and short-term factors (such as inflation). Further, the results of the one-way ANOVA indicated that although the level of provincial development creates a significant difference in the average participation rate of provinces in presidential elections, being a border province is not a significant factor in the average participation rate of provinces in elections. https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8519_a085a01ea33b8e9730fb60000b5e15aa.pdf

Shiraz University Iranian Journal of Economic Studies 2322-1402 14 2 2025 12 01 Assessment of the Relationship Between Financial and Business Cycles Considering Heterogeneity in Budget Deficits, Financing Methods, and Current Account Status 547 583 8494 10.22099/ijes.2026.54415.2067 EN Leila Rahgozar Department of Economics, Shi. C., Islamic Azad University, Shiraz, Iran. Hashem Zare Department of Economics, Shi. C., Islamic Azad University, Shiraz, Iran. Mehrzad Ebrahimi Department of Economics, Shi. C., Islamic Azad University, Shiraz, Iran. Journal Article 2025 10 01 The occurrence of business cycles and economic fluctuations is a central issue in economics. The emergence of business cycles has often led to challenges for economies, creating unwanted periods of inflation or recession that result in adverse economic conditions. Among the factors that can influence business cycles is the performance of the financial sector. This study employs a Panel VAR model to evaluate the relationship between financial and business cycles in developing countries over the period from 1990 to 2021. The study divides 68 developing countries into six groups based on their budget deficit status, predominant financing method, and current account status to identify potential heterogeneity in the relationship between financial and business cycles. The findings indicate a bidirectional causality between financial and business cycles across all six groups of countries (characterized by high or low budget deficits, bank-based or market-based financing, and current account surpluses or deficits). Additionally, the results suggest that financing methods, budget deficit status, and current account balances influence the intensity of the impact of financial cycles on business cycles in developing countries. Given the severe budget deficit and the significant role of banks in financing enterprises in Iran, it can be argued that financial cycles have a substantial effect on the real sector of the Iranian economy, with a thriving financial sector likely to expand activities and stimulate economic growth. https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8494_99fe6b9107dc568f7afdd88c6e30f1be.pdf

Shiraz University Iranian Journal of Economic Studies 2322-1402 14 2 2025 12 01 The Channels of Monetary Shocks' Effects on Income Inequality in Iran: A TVP-FAVAR Model Approach 585 606 8505 10.22099/ijes.2026.54960.2082 EN Afshin Barmaki Department of Economics, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran. Mohammad Jafari Department of Economics, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran. Alireza Erfani Department of Economics, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran. Seyed Mohammad Mostolizadeh Department of Economics, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran. Journal Article 2025 11 23 Income inequality is one of the structural challenges of Iran's economy, and in recent decades, it has been exacerbated by significant fluctuations in monetary, exchange rate, and asset markets. From a theoretical perspective, monetary policy can affect income distribution through three main channels: the labor market, asset market, and credit channel. However, the intensity and direction of these effects are not constant over time in developing economies, necessitating a model that can reveal the dynamics of these changes. Therefore, the objective of this study is to investigate the mechanisms and magnitude of the transmission of monetary shocks on income inequality in Iran during the period from 1991 to 2025. The study employs the TVP-FAVAR model to enable the estimation of time-varying effects of monetary shocks, accounting for the large number of variables involved. The results indicate that the impact of monetary policies on income inequality in Iran is characterized by asymmetric features, time-dependence, and reliance on specific monetary transmission channels. Among the channels examined, the credit channel, particularly through liquidity growth and exchange rate fluctuations, plays a significant role in exacerbating inequality and generates persistent short-term responses. Additionally, the asset market channel is associated with an increase in the Gini coefficient and the expansion of income inequality, although its impact is relatively smaller than that of the credit channel. In contrast, the labor market channel has the least effect on income distribution, only causing minor and temporary deviations in the pattern of income inequality. https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8505_3a909cd0c0c2b331c6ac1cb662112487.pdf

Shiraz University Iranian Journal of Economic Studies 2322-1402 14 2 2025 12 01 Investigating the Asymmetric Relationship of Tax Revenue and Financial Development: NARDL Approach 607 631 8553 10.22099/ijes.2026.55306.2091 EN Ahmed Obaid Ali Al-Tameemi Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran. Sakineh Sojoodi Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran. Mohammad Mahdi Barghi Oskooee Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran. Journal Article 2025 12 25 In oil-dependent economies like Iraq, understanding the asymmetric impacts of positive and negative shocks in the relationship between financial development and tax revenue is essential. This study examines the asymmetric causality between financial development and tax revenue in Iraq from 1993 to 2023 using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model. This approach distinguishes the effects of positive and negative shocks, providing clear advantages over traditional linear models. The results indicate unidirectional asymmetric causality running from tax revenue to financial development. Positive shocks to tax revenue (increases in collections) are associated with a negative effect on financial development, likely due to reduced incentives for private investment and lower profitability of loans. By contrast, negative tax revenue shocks (declines in collections) exert a stronger positive and clearly asymmetric effect, presumably by releasing resources that facilitate private-sector credit expansion and overall financial deepening. Among the control variables, economic growth and government expenditure show positive and significant effects, boosting demand for financial services and supporting infrastructure development. Inflation and trade openness, however, exert negative influences: inflation erodes real returns on assets and raises transaction costs, while greater openness may subject domestic financial sectors to heightened external competition. The estimated error correction coefficient of –0.879 suggests rapid adjustment, with roughly 87.9% of short-run disequilibria corrected within one period. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of carefully calibrated tax policies to strengthen financial resilience in resource-dependent economies. https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8553_63437e2dd75bfb7aa77331b9b88832f1.pdf

Shiraz University Iranian Journal of Economic Studies 2322-1402 14 2 2025 12 01 Unveiling a Vicious Feedback Loop: A Smooth Transition VAR (STVAR) Analysis of Asymmetric Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Iran's Dual Economic Regimes 633 665 8497 10.22099/ijes.2026.55059.2084 EN Nasser Elahi Department of Economics, Mofid University, Qom, Iran. Mohammad Hassan Saboori Deilami Macroeconomics Research Group, Institute for Trade Studies and Research, Tehran, Iran. Journal Article 2025 11 30 This study examines the nonlinear, regime-dependent relationship between exchange rates and inflation in Iran using a Smooth Transition Vector Autoregressive (STVAR) model with monthly data from 2000 to 2024. It rejects a linear model in favor of a two-regime analysis, identified as tranquil and crisis, with transitions driven by the level of the exchange rate. Key findings reveal that a one-standard-deviation shock to the parallel market exchange rate in the crisis regime causes an immediate 43% increase in consumer inflation, rising to 93% over two years, compared to a 30% increase in the tranquil regime. Additionally, the pass-through to the Producer Price Index (PPI) is stronger and faster than to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), indicating the vulnerability of the real sector. The exchange rate's contribution to inflation variance nearly doubles in the crisis regime. Robustness checks, including threshold VAR estimation and alternative lag structures, confirm the stability of these results. These findings emphasize that the Iranian economy is susceptible to a self-reinforcing feedback loop activated by crossing critical exchange rate thresholds. Without effective institutional reforms, the risk of a currency crisis remains, as external shocks or domestic policy errors could trigger a vicious cycle of inflation again. This situation underscores the need for a shift towards macroeconomic discipline and proactive management of expectations, as mere shock therapy tends to be counterproductive. https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8497_d51b1400c98eb38270ebf0862a6f3bdf.pdf

Shiraz University Iranian Journal of Economic Studies 2322-1402 14 2 2025 12 01 Macroeconomic Policy and CO₂ Mitigation: Evidence from Iran 667 688 8588 10.22099/ijes.2026.55438.2101 EN Seyed Jamaledin Mohseni Zonouzi Faculty of Economics and Management, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran. Pegah Aminpour Ghahramani Faculty of Economics and Management, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran. Journal Article 2026 02 02 Environmental pressures and escalating carbon emissions have intensified the scholarly debate surrounding the ecological implications of macroeconomic policies, particularly within resource-dependent economies. This study examines the impact of monetary and fiscal policy instruments on CO₂ emissions in Iran from 1975 to 2023 using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. It analyzes both short- and long-run relationships between emissions and key macroeconomic variables, including money supply, total government spending, GDP per capita, energy consumption, and trade openness. Empirical results indicate that money supply and government expenditure exert a statistically significant positive effect on CO₂ emissions in both the short and long run. These findings demonstrate the prevalence of a scale effect, wherein monetary expansion and fiscal stimuli catalyze aggregate demand and industrial activity, thereby amplifying environmental degradation. However, these results must interpreted with caution, as the aggregate nature of government expenditure data may obscure specific sectoral nuances. Furthermore, GDP per capita and energy consumption are the primary drivers of emissions, underscoring Iran’s structural reliance on fossil-fuel-based growth. Conversely, trade openness yields no appreciable effect in the long run, suggesting that external integration has not fundamentally altered the country’s carbon trajectory. This paper emphasizes the necessity of aligning macroeconomic frameworks with environmental objectives. Prioritizing green investment, energy efficiency, and the integration of environmental benchmark into fiscal and monetary structures is essential. This research contributes to the literature by providing long-term empirical evidence from a resource-dependent economy, offering insights applicable to emerging markets facing similar structural constraints. https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8588_6f2cee20d753746398e64aa11913e3e8.pdf