Shiraz University Iranian Journal of Economic Studies 2322-1402 15 1 2026 06 01 Stacked Intelligence: A Robust Ensemble Approach to Forecasting Big Tech Stock Prices in Turbulent Markets (2020–2025) 7 34 8589 10.22099/ijes.2026.55448.2097 EN Younes Nademi Department of Economics, Ayatollah Boroujerdi University, Boroujerd, Iran. Majid Ebtia Zagros Data Sciences Research Group, Ayatollah Boroujerdi University, Boroujerd, Iran. Ramin Khochiany Department of Economics, Ayatollah Boroujerdi University, Boroujerd, Iran. Sayyed Mohammad Hoseini Gahar Artificial Intelligence Research Group, Ayatollah Boroujerdi University, Boroujerd, Iran Journal Article 2026 01 05 Accurate forecasts of the mega-cap technology stocks—Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Microsoft—are vital for risk management and asset allocation. This study proposes a stacking ensemble that fuses Support Vector Regression (SVR), Random Forests (RF) and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) as base learners, with a parsimonious linear meta-learner. We use daily OHLC data from 2 January 2020 to 11 March 2025, a span capturing the volatility of the COVID-19 shock and its aftermath. After differencing to ensure stationarity, the target variable becomes the daily change in closing price (Δ"Close" ). Models are trained on an expanding 80% window and tested on the final 20% of observations. Performance is assessed on strictly out-of-sample predictions using RMSE, MAE, MSE, and R^2. Across all five firms, the ensemble achieves the highest explanatory power (R^2≈0.80"-" 0.83) for predicting daily price changes and lowers RMSE by 8–15% relative to the best individual model. Friedman tests show these improvements are significant at the 1% level for Microsoft, Meta and Alphabet, and at 5% for Amazon; Apple shows no significant difference. The results indicate that combining heterogeneous learners curbs overfitting and exploits complementary nonlinear and temporal signals, producing stable forecasts during extreme market stress. The framework provides investors and policymakers with a validated AI tool for improving risk-return profiles in tech-heavy portfolios and offers methodological guidance for future financial-forecasting research. https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8589_5c936ab8a57b1aa2621f7a35b1a504fc.pdf

Shiraz University Iranian Journal of Economic Studies 2322-1402 15 1 2026 06 01 Suppressed Inflation and Exchange Rate Pass-through: Evidence from Iran 35 50 8628 10.22099/ijes.2026.52964.2030 EN Mohsen Behzadi Soufiani Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran. Journal Article 2025 04 17 Based on empirical evidence backed by quantity theory of money, there is a proportionate reaction of the price level to an exogenous increase in the nominal money stock and it can cause a persistent inflation. However, governments control the relation between liquidity growth and inflation in the short run by managing exchange rate. Inflation control through government intervention using exchange rate in Iran, as an oil exporting country took place in last decades. Bearing sanctions in mind, exchange rate had significant overshoots causing two states in Iranian monetary environment. To capture the dynamics, this study using TAR estimation for liquidity, exchange rate and price levels over the period 2001-2025, detected exchange rate growth as the threshold variable at the value of 11% dividing economy into two states. In the low exchange rate regime, exchange rate changes have no statistically significant effect on inflation, while liquidity growth emerges as the primary driver and inflation persistence remains strong through significant lagged effects. In contrast, once the threshold is exceeded, exchange rate depreciation becomes a key and highly significant determinant of inflation, indicating intensified pass-through effects under higher volatility. Although liquidity continues to exert a positive and stronger influence, inflation persistence weakens, suggesting a shift from backward-looking dynamics toward contemporaneous shocks and potentially forward-looking expectations. Liquidity with a larger coefficient than in the lower regime, suggesting that monetary expansion has an even stronger inflationary impact under high exchange rate volatility which could not be suppressed. https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8628_f24084eca62c2b687eddd4c41d24bc39.pdf

Shiraz University Iranian Journal of Economic Studies 2322-1402 15 1 2026 06 01 Investigating Multidimensional Spatial Patterns of the Relationship between Financial Stress and Financial Market Growth: A Hybrid MSPAHM Model Approach 51 84 8632 10.22099/ijes.2026.55255.2090 EN Mahshid Jahangiri Department of Economics, Shi. C., Islamic Azad University, Shiraz, Iran. Hashem Zare Department of Economics, Shi. C., Islamic Azad University, Shiraz, Iran. Jalil Khodaparast Shirazi Department of Economics, Shi. C., Islamic Azad University, Shiraz, Iran. Journal Article 2025 12 20 This study investigates the multidimensional spatial patterns characterizing the relationship between financial stress and financial market growth among companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. The research incorporates three critical dimensions: spatial interdependencies, network structures, and inter-sectoral interactions. The analytical framework employs the innovative Multidimensional Spatial Panel Autoregressive Hybrid Model (MSPAHM), which facilitates simultaneous examination of temporal dynamics, spatial dependencies, and sectoral heterogeneity across the economic landscape. The empirical analysis encompasses a comprehensive dataset of Tehran Stock Exchange-listed companies spanning 2010 to 2024, capturing multiple economic cycles and policy regimes. The findings reveal that financial stress exerts a significant negative impact on firms' financial growth, with effects propagating through spatial spillover mechanisms to interconnected companies within the broader economic network. This transmission occurs across both direct and indirect channels, creating cascading effects throughout the market structure. Notably, the analysis identifies substantial sectoral variation in vulnerability patterns. Capital-intensive and import-dependent industries demonstrate heightened susceptibility to financial stress shocks, with effect magnitudes intensifying markedly during periods of economic sanctions and maximum pressure policies. These results underscore the dynamic and networked nature of financial stress, emphasizing its dependence on sectoral characteristics and temporal contexts. The study concludes that effective policy intervention requires adopting a systemic approach grounded in comprehensive network analysis, enabling policymakers to anticipate spillover effects and design targeted interventions that account for the interconnected nature of firm-level financial distress within the broader economic ecosystem. https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8632_c46121dc919a130a41fec8281553c271.pdf

Shiraz University Iranian Journal of Economic Studies 2322-1402 15 1 2026 06 01 The Asymmetric Impact of Market Risk and Turbulence on Financial Reporting Conservatism: The Moderating Role of Macroeconomic Fluctuations in an Emerging Economy 85 117 8640 10.22099/ijes.2026.55683.2105 EN Mostafa Shamsoddini Department of Accounting and Economics, University of Hormozgan, Bandar Abbas, Iran. Narges Salari Kangi Department of Business Administration, University of Hormozgan, Bandar Abbas, Iran. Journal Article 2026 02 16 This study identifies a theoretical puzzle: while agency theory predicts that all forms of uncertainty increase accounting conservatism as a precautionary buffer, we find that market turbulence reduces it. This paradoxical reversal cannot be explained by standard risk-aversion frameworks. Using a balanced panel of 154 firms listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange over 2015-2024 (1,540 firm-year observations), we employ FGLS as our primary estimator, complemented by System GMM to address endogeneity. Our findings reveal a fundamental asymmetry consistent with our proposed Conditional Dominance Framework: market risk has a positive and significant effect on conservatism, supporting the agency-theoretic view of conservatism as a rational response to mitigate agency costs. Conversely, market turbulence exerts a negative and significant impact, consistent with Prospect Theory's prediction that under ambiguity and loss-domain conditions, managers become risk-seeking and abandon prudent reporting. Critically, this behavioral reversal is not constant but is activated and amplified by adverse macroeconomic conditions—inflation and exchange rate depreciation—which act as cognitive regime-switches. Economic growth and higher real interest rates weaken these relationships. The primary contribution is demonstrating that financial reporting conservatism is not merely a strategic response but a fragile defense mechanism that systematically collapses under extreme macro-volatility, challenging the implicit assumption that conservatism always increases with uncertainty. Our findings offer critical insights for managers, investors, and policymakers navigating volatile emerging economies.<br />  https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8640_1116cdf9a88dc62b86e94301107bb1ca.pdf

Shiraz University Iranian Journal of Economic Studies 2322-1402 15 1 2026 06 01 Endogenous Liquidity Creation in Bank Centric Economies: A DSGE Analysis of Iran, Azerbaijan, and Armenia 119 167 8649 10.22099/ijes.2026.55887.2112 EN Zahra Mohammadi Department of Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran Rasoul Bakhshi Department of Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran Mohammad Vaez Barzani Department of Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran Journal Article 2026 04 02 This study employs a calibrated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model to compare endogenous liquidity creation and its allocation in Iran, Armenia, and Azerbaijan over 2005–2024. It significantly contributes by introducing a structural Liquidity Distribution Indicator (LDI), measuring the share of bank-created liquidity allocated to firm lending. Countries are selected based on similar Liquidity Creation Intensity (LCI), defined as the ratio of central bank borrowing to total deposits. The model features a representative household and bank with financial frictions to analyze how balance sheet liquidity allocation affects the transmission of a –1% lending rate shock, interpreted as a relaxation of credit conditions before and after COVID-19. Calibrated to country-specific financial structures and solved using a fully nonlinear routine, the model generates impulse responses from nonlinear transition dynamics. Results show that before COVID-19, banks in Iran and Armenia allocated a relatively small share of liquidity to firm lending, with Azerbaijan displaying a similar pattern driven by state-dominated intermediation. Although post-COVID liquidity support temporarily increased lending shares, structural banking features continued to constrain effective monetary transmission. Overall, interest rate policy alone appears insufficient to mitigate risks from concentrated liquidity allocation; strengthening credit allocation mechanisms and banking intermediation is essential for macro-financial stability. https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8649_f26247e5363c74f634997659bc16b5bf.pdf

Shiraz University Iranian Journal of Economic Studies 2322-1402 15 1 2026 06 01 Asymmetric Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Producer Prices in Iran: The Role of Inflation Expectations 169 197 8698 10.22099/ijes.2026.55795.2110 EN Mahdi Aminirad Department of Economic Statistics and Information, Institute for Management and Planning studies (IMPS), Tehran, Iran. Sima Shaygan Mehr Department of Economics, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran. Journal Article 2026 02 25 This study investigates the nonlinear, state-dependent dynamics of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) across Producer Price Index (PPI) sub-sectors in Iran, utilizing quarterly time-series data spanning from 2000Q2 to 2025Q4. Employing a threshold regression framework to capture asymmetric price transmission under varying macroeconomic conditions, the analysis distinguishes between low- and high-inflation expectations regimes. Empirical findings reveal a pronounced regime-dependent escalation in ERPT; at the aggregate level, pass-through elasticity surges from 0.525 in the low-inflation regime to 0.730 in the high-inflation regime, underscoring the pivotal role of inflation expectations in amplifying the transmission of exchange rate shocks into producer prices. This pattern persists robustly across more than two decades of structural economic evolution. Sectoral heterogeneity is particularly evident, with manufacturing and agriculture exhibiting the most significant increases (from 0.607 to 0.938 and 0.467 to 0.868, respectively), reflecting their enduring reliance on imported intermediate inputs. Similarly, the mining and oil & gas sectors demonstrate marked regime shifts consistent with nonlinear adjustment mechanisms in resource-based production. Collectively, these results confirm that ERPT in the Iranian economy is fundamentally nonlinear and state-dependent, with inflation expectations serving as a critical amplification channel. Consequently, the study emphasizes the necessity of accounting for regime shifts, long-run structural transformations, and seasonal dynamics to accurately model exchange rate transmission to producer prices. https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8698_62c8cf84ed452427060c70c760e3a3da.pdf

Shiraz University Iranian Journal of Economic Studies 2322-1402 15 1 2026 06 01 Spatial Analysis of the Effect of Gas Consumption on Electricity Consumption: A Case Study of the Provinces of Iran 199 230 8696 10.22099/ijes.2026.56095.2118 EN Shiva Alizadeh Department of Economics, lorestan Branch, lorestan University, lorestan, Iran. Saeed Kian Poor Department of Economics, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran. Leila Argha Department of Economics, lorestan Branch, lorestan University, lorestan, Iran. Sogand Hosseinnia Chafjiri Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran. 0009-0003-8893-961X Journal Article 2026 05 07 This study employs spatial econometric methods to examine the impact of gas consumption on electricity consumption across Iranian provinces from 2006 to 2019. Key variables analyzed include gas consumption, gross domestic product, urban population, average temperature, and average electricity prices. The results indicate that provincial income, population, total gas consumption, and degree of industrialization positively influence electricity consumption, with industrialized provinces exhibiting higher electricity demand. Furthermore, total gas consumption significantly increases electricity consumption, reflecting the essential role of gas in electricity generation. The positive and significant spatial lag coefficient of electricity consumption highlights the importance of spatial dependence, suggesting that increases in electricity consumption in one province lead to corresponding increases in neighboring provinces. Overall, the findings confirm the significant effect of gas consumption on electricity demand while emphasizing spatial spillover effects among provinces. https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8696_68f598dcb07763722e26cb0e46e3002d.pdf

Shiraz University Iranian Journal of Economic Studies 2322-1402 15 1 2026 06 01 Deep Learning-Enhanced Cross-Sectoral Analysis of Exchange Rate Asymmetry: Evidence from Sectoral Stock Markets and Industrial Output 231 267 8694 10.22099/ijes.2026.55803.2111 EN Seyyed Ali Malihi Department of Accounting, Ker.C., Islamic Azad University, Kermanshah, Iran. Alireza Moradi Department of Economics, Ker. C., Islamic Azad University, Kermanshah, Iran. Afshin BaghfalakI Department of Economics, Ker. C., Islamic Azad University, Kermanshah, Iran. Forozan Mohammadi Yarijani Department of Accounting, Ker.C., Islamic Azad University, Kermanshah, Iran. Journal Article 2026 02 26 This study examines the asymmetric and nonlinear effects of exchange rate fluctuations on Iran’s stock market index and industrial production over the period 2009–2024, with the explicit aim of quantifying the differential sensitivity of financial and real sectors to currency depreciation and appreciation shocks under varying macroeconomic regimes. A hybrid analytical framework is employed, integrating the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model for asymmetric cointegration analysis, a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) for endogenous regime identification, Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) for Bayesian uncertainty quantification, and a Transformer architecture for temporal attention-based forecasting. Monthly data spanning 2009–2024 are utilized, with all variables confirmed as through ADF, PP, and KPSS unit root tests. Bounds testing confirms stable long-run cointegrating relationships in both models ( and , respectively). Long-run asymmetry is significant in both sectors; negative shocks exert effects approximately times larger than positive shocks in the stock market ( vs. ) and times larger in industrial production ( vs. ). The HMM identifies two structurally distinct regimes — stable and turbulent — wherein turbulent-regime coefficients exceed stable-regime estimates by a factor exceeding two. The hybrid framework achieves RMSE reductions of 38% and 24% over benchmark models for the stock market and industrial production, respectively. Exchange rate shocks in Iran operate through asymmetric, regime-dependent, and nonlinear channels, with financial markets exhibiting substantially greater sensitivity than the real sector. Symmetric currency management policies are structurally inadequate; preemptive, regime-sensitive intervention instruments are required. https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8694_da19ad460b658d632934ba73424e07ad.pdf

Shiraz University Iranian Journal of Economic Studies 2322-1402 15 1 2026 06 01 Governance, Democracy, and the Effectiveness of Economic Policies in Green Finance 269 313 8723 10.22099/ijes.2026.55488.2099 EN Behrouz Sadeghi Amroabadi Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran and visiting scholar at the Faculty of Business, Athabasca University, Edmonton, Canada. Mir Hadi Hosseini Kondelaji Department of Economics, Arak University, Arak, Iran. Davoud Mahmoudinia Department of Economics, Vali-e-Asr University of Rafsanjan, Rafsanjan, Iran. Journal Article 2026 01 13 Governance quality and democracy are important pillars of sustainable green finance. The establishment of transparent legal frameworks, effective anti-corruption controls, and improved regulatory quality are essential to increase investor confidence in green financial markets. This study seeks to evaluate the role of institutional quality and democracy in the effectiveness of economic policies related to green finance from 2006 to 2023. Using Driscoll–Kraay standard error regressions, Westerlund and Kao cointegration tests, the GMM estimator, and the JKS Granger non‑causality test, the results show that democracy and governance quality have positive and significant effects on green investment development across high‑, middle‑, and low‑income countries. The presence of democratic institutions and transparent governance enhances the efficiency of macroeconomic policies in promoting renewable‑energy expansion. The effect of fiscal policies is positive and significant in high-income countries, while in lower-income countries, institutional weakness and corruption weaken this effect. In addition, combining monetary and fiscal policies with high-quality institutions generates a synergistic effect on green financial growth. Our findings reveal that the success of economic policies in advancing environmental goals depends on the institutional and democratic structure of countries. The study recommends aligning macroeconomic policies with environmental objectives and integrating sustainability criteria into fiscal and monetary policy frameworks, particularly within central banks and finance ministries. https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8723_80821c303c685aa5baeff6d12041d1bd.pdf

Shiraz University Iranian Journal of Economic Studies 2322-1402 15 1 2026 06 01 Does Economic Development Reshape Financial Structure? Evidence from BRICS Economies 315 334 8792 10.22099/ijes.2026.56508.2132 EN Seyed Rohollah Ahmadi Hajiabadi Department of Economics, Damghan University, Damghan, Iran. Journal Article 2026 06 27 This study examines whether economic development reshapes financial structure in line with the predictions of New Structural Financial Economics (NSFE). The theory argues that financial systems evolve endogenously alongside changes in industrial structure and financing needs, gradually shifting from bank-based to more market-oriented arrangements as economies develop. Using a panel of BRICS economies over the period 1998–2024, this paper analyzes how economic development and financial structure are related over the long run. A composite financial structure index is constructed through Principal Component Analysis based on financial structure size and activity indicators. Before estimation, cross-sectional dependence, slope heterogeneity, panel unit roots, and panel cointegration are systematically examined to ensure the validity of the empirical analysis. The Group-Mean Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (GM-FMOLS) estimator is applied to estimate the long-run coefficients, while the Augmented Mean Group (AMG) estimator serves as a robustness check. The empirical results reveal a positive and statistically significant effect of real GDP per capita on financial structure across alternative model specifications. The findings provide robust empirical support for the New Structural Economics framework and suggest that financial systems evolve in line with structural transformation and the dynamic financing needs of the real economy, while institutional quality variables and pandemic conditions are controlled throughout the analysis consistently.    https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8792_382b5f97dca1a6413af44658b2062d47.pdf

Shiraz University Iranian Journal of Economic Studies 2322-1402 15 1 2026 06 01 Financial Inclusion, Institutions and Tax Revenue Performance in Middle East and North African (MENA) Countries 335 359 8809 10.22099/ijes.2026.55394.2096 EN Mohammed Aminu Yaru Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Ilorin, Ilorin Nigeria. Umar Faruq Abdullahi Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Ilorin, Ilorin Nigeria. Ismail Aremu Muhammed School of Business and Economics, Universiti Brunei Darusalam, Brunei Darusalam. Ibrahim Olumuyiwa Sikiru Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Ilorin, Ilorin, Nigeria and Department of Economics, Ladoke Akintola University of Technology, Ogbomoso, Nigeria. Journal Article 2026 01 01 Many countries in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are struggling with common problems, particularly of low tax revenue performance, financial exclusion and poor governance institutional quality. Despite persistence of these challenges, empirical studies on the impact of financial inclusion and institutional quality on tax revenue performance with exclusive focus on MENA countries are not common in the literature. Using a panel data set of 11 MENA countries for the period spanning from 2004 to 2022 and a dynamic panel model and system GMM estimation techniques, this study examined the impact of financial inclusion and governance institutional quality on tax revenue performance. The findings revealed that financial inclusion has a positive and significant impact on tax revenue performance. However, the positive marginal effect of financial inclusion on tax revenue performance tends to diminish with improvement in the governance institutional quality. The study concludes that improving institutional quality, particularly those that will enhance political stability and reduce incidences of violence will help in unlocking tax revenue potentials of MENA countries. This is particularly important in countries where problems of poor institutional quality are more serious. Overall, the study offers useful insights for policymakers interested in maximising the potential benefits of financial inclusion in improving tax revenue performance. https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8809_796757419d062a7eacdd7364ad95cf8f.pdf

Shiraz University Iranian Journal of Economic Studies 2322-1402 15 1 2026 06 01 An Assessment of Stabilization Policies in Conjunction with Energy Price Reform in Iran: Insights from a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (DCGE) Model 335 375 8856 10.22099/ijes.2026.56444.2126 EN Maryam Izadi Department of Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran. Mojtaba Bahmani Department of Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran. Seyed Abdolmajid Jalaei Esfandabadi Department of Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran. Mehdi Nejati Department of Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran. 0000-0003-4103-869X Journal Article 2026 06 17 Pricing energy below its full economic cost creates allocative inefficiencies and undermines the fiscal sustainability of the energy sector, making energy price reform a crucial policy priority in many economies. However, such reforms can generate adverse short-run effects on economic activity and household welfare, highlighting the need for well-targeted stabilization measures. This study evaluates alternative complementary policies implemented alongside electricity price reform in Iran using a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (DCGE) model. In the baseline scenario, electricity prices increase by 18% annually. Five tax-based stabilization policies are then assessed, covering taxes on labor income, capital income, factor demand, and output in the industrial and agricultural sectors. The results indicate that higher electricity prices contract output in the short run, particularly in energy-intensive sectors such as iron and steel, information technology (IT), and electricity. In contrast, some fossil fuel-dependent sectors benefit from substitution effects, while several sectors expand in the long run; nevertheless, adverse effects persist in selected modern industries. None of the examined fiscal policies fully offsets the negative effects of the electricity price shock. However, eliminating production taxes in agriculture and industry (S15) performs relatively better by partially mitigating output losses in key sectors. Moreover, S15 and S12 outperform the benchmark in reducing inflationary pressures and supporting GDP, although they reduce household consumption and welfare. Overall, the findings demonstrate that effective compensation requires policies tailored to the structural characteristics of the economy and appropriate sector-specific adjustment mechanisms over time. https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8856_202cadd81d91747c09610e91ff45519d.pdf