نقش دستاوردهای تکنولوژیکی و رقابت پذیری صنعتی بر کارایی تجارت: شواهدی از تجارت صنعتی ایران با کشورهای سند چشم انداز

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران.

2 دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

هدف محوری پژوهش حاضر ارزیابی نقش شاخص رقابت‌پذیری صنعتی و دستاورد تکنولوژیکی بر کارایی تجارت صنعتی کشورهای سند چشم‌انداز می‌باشد. بنابراین از داده‌های 24 کشور سند چشم‌انداز در گرو‌ه‌های کالایی طبقه‌بندی شده کدهای چهاررقمی طی سال‌های 2023- 2002 استفاده شده است. میزان تجارت صنعتی ایران با کشورهای سند چشم‌انداز با معیار گروبل‌ولوید و داده‌های مستخرج از پایگاه داده‌ها و اطلاعات آماری بانک جهانی و سازمان توسعه و تجارت بین‌المللی محاسبه شد. آنگاه به سنجش میزان کارایی تجارت صنعتی به روش تحلیل پوششی داده‌ها پرداخته شد و در نهایت دو معادله کارایی فنی و تجارت صنعتی در چارچوب روش گشتاورهای دو مرحله‌ای سیستمی برآورد گردید. نتایج مطالعه دلالت بر اثرگذاری اکثر متغیرها با علامت مطابق انتظار بر کارایی تجارت صنعتی دارند. هرچند شاخص دستاورهای تکنولوژیکی می‌تواند به‌عنوان محرکی برای کارایی تجارت صنعتی عمل کنند؛ اما رقابت‌پذیری صنعتی ایران با کشورهای سند چشم‌انداز تأثیر بسیار ناچیزی بر کارایی تجارت صنعتی ایران و شرکای تجاری داشته‌اند؛ به‌طوری‌که افزایش در دستاوردهای فناوری منجر به افزایش 057/0 در شاخص کارایی تجاری شده است. علاوه براین، تحریم‌های نفتی علیه ایران باعث کاهش به‌میزان 225/0 وکارایی فنی نیز منجر به افزایشی 186/0 درکارایی تجارت صنعتی شده است. این نتایج به سیاست‌گذاران توصیه می‌کند تا رقابت‌پذیری صنعتی را از طریق زیرساخت‌های فناوری و سرمایه‌گذاری سرمایه انسانی افزایش دهند. علاوه بر این، تقویت پیشرفت‌های فناوری از طریق سرمایه‌گذاری در تحقیق و توسعه صنایع داخلی ایران و انتقال فناوری‌های پیشرفته از کشورهای مرفهی مانند امارات متحده عربی و ترکیه برای بهبود و حفظ کارایی تجارت صنعتی ایران بسیار مهم است.

تازه های تحقیق

Amiti, M. (1998). Inter-industry Trade in Manufactures: Does Country Size Matter? Journal of International Economics, 44(2), 231–255. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1996(97)00030-5.

An, G., & Iyigun, M. F. (2004). The Export Technology Content, Learning by Doing, and Specialization in Foreign Trade. Journal of International Economics, 64(2), 465-483. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2003.11.001.

Antweiler, W., & Trefler, D. (2002). Increasing returns and all that: a view from trade. American Economic Review, 92(1), 93-119. https://doi.org/ 10.1257/000282802760015621.

Backus, D. K., Kehoe, P. J., & Kehoe, T. J. (1992). In search of scale effects in trade and growth. Journal of Economic Theory, 58(2), 377-409. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-0531(92)90060-U.

Baltagi, B. H. (Ed.). (2006). Panel data econometrics: Theoretical contributions and empirical applications. Emerald Group Publishing.

Banker, R. D., Charnes, A., & Cooper, W. W. (1984). Models for estimating technical and scale inefficiencies.

 Blundell, R., & Bond, S. (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of Econometrics, 87(1), 115-143. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(98)0009-8.

Brodzicki, T., & Sledziewska, K. (2016). The Role of the Technology and Innovation Gap in Polish Trade Relations. Empirical Verification with the Use of Trade Gravity Approach. Institute for Development,  Working Papers, 1506, Retrieved from  https://ideas.repec.org/p/iro/wpaper/1506.html.

Caruso, R. (2003). The impact of international economic sanctions on trade: An empirical analysis. Peace economics, peace science, and public policy, 9(2). https://doi.org/10.2202/1554-8597.1061.

Charnes, A., Cooper, W. W., & Rhodes, E. (1978). Measuring the efficiency of decision-making units. European Journal of Operational Research, 2(6), 429-444. https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-2217(78)90138-8.

Cheng, C. F. C., Yuan, Q., Hua, C., Xu, Y., Cantore, N., & Wang, K. (2023). Global Inclusive and Sustainable Competitive Industrial Performance (ISCIP): An efficiency-based spatio-temporal analysis for 139 countries. Applied Energy, 333, 120603. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.120603.

Chui, M., Levine, P., Mansoob Murshed, S., & Pearlman, J. (2002). North–South models of growth and trade. Journal of Economic Surveys, 16(2), 123-165. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-6419.00162.

Coelli, T. (1996). A Guide to DEAP Version 2.1: A Data Envelopment Analysis (Computer) Program. Centre for Efficiency and Productivity Analysis, University of New England, Australia, 96(8), 1–49. Retrieved from https://www.owlnet.rice.edu/~econ380/DEAP.Pdf.

Cooper, W. W., Seiford, L. M., & Tone, K. (2007). Data Envelopment Analysis: A Comprehensive Text with Models, Applications, References and DEA-Solver Software (2nd Ed.). New York: Springer.

Desai, M., Fukuda-Parr, S., Johansson, C., & Sagasti, F. (2002). Measuring the Technology Achievement of Nations and the Capacity to Participate in the Network Age. Journal of Human Development, 3(1), 95-122. https://doi.org/10.1080/14649880120105399.

Dizaji, Sajjad Faraji and Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza, (2024). The Impact of U.S. Trade Sanctions on the Global Trade of Target Countries: Do the Political Institutions of the Targets Matter? CESifo Working Paper No. 10910. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4711267.

Fall, F., Akim, A. M., & Wassongma, H. (2018). DEA and SFA research on the efficiency of microfinance institutions: A meta-analysis. World Development, 107, 176-188. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.02.032.

Farrell, M. J. (1957). The measurement of productive efficiency. Journal of the royal statistical society series a: statistics in society, 120(3), 253-281. https://doi.org/10.2307/2343100

Grossman, G. M. & Helpman, E. (1995). Technology and Trade. Handbook of International Economics, 3. 1279-1337. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1573-4404(05)80005-X.

Guarascio, D., Pianta, M., & Bogliacino, F. (2017). Export, R&D and new products: A model and a test on European industries, 393-432. Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-62009-1_17.

Globerman, S., & Dean, J. W. (1990). Recent trends in intra-industry trade and their implications for future trade liberalization. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 126(1), 25-49. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02706310.

Hossain, M. A., & Karunaratne, N. D. (2004). Trade liberalization and technical efficiency: evidence from Bangladesh manufacturing industries. Journal of Development Studies, 40(3), 87-114. https://doi.org/10.1080/0022038042000213210.

Hart, J., Miljkovic, D., & Shaik, S. (2015). The impact of trade openness on technical efficiency in the agricultural sector of the European Union. Applied Economics, 47(12), 1230-1247.

Heckscher, E. F., & Ohlin, B. (1991). Heckscher-Ohlin trade theory (H. Flam & M. J. Flanders, Eds. & Trans.). MIT Press.

https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2014.993134.

Helpman, E. (1999). The Structure of Foreign Trade. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 13(2), 121–144. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.13.2.121.

Hunter, L. C. (1991). The Contribution of Nonhomothetic Preferences to Trade. Journal of International Economics, 30, 345-358. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1996(91)90027-4.

Industrial Competitiveness Index Report (2023). Progress by innovation with reliable industrial statistics: International yearbook of industrial statistics (Edition 2023). Vienna, Austria: UNIDO Statistics.

Ismail, N. W., & Mahyideen, J. M. (2015). The Impact of Infrastructure on Trade and Economic Growth in Selected Economies in Asia. ADBI Working Paper, 553, Retrieved from http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2709294. 

Kandogan, Y. (2003). Intra-industry trade of transition countries: trends and determinants. Emerging Markets Review, 4(3), 273-286. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1566-0141(03)00040-2.

Kripfganz, S. (2019). Generalized method of moments estimation of linear dynamic panel data models. Paper presented at the London Stata conference.

Krugman, P. (1995). Increasing Returns, Imperfect Competition and the Positive Theory of International Trade. Handbook of international economics, 3, 1243-1277. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1573-4404(05)80004-8.

Krugman, P. (1980). Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade. The American Economic Review, 70(5), 950-959. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1805774.

Łapińska, J., Kądzielawski, G., & Dziuba, R. (2019). Country-specific Determinants of Intra-Industry Trade in Clothing and Footwear between Poland and European Union countries. Fibres & Textiles in Eastern Europe, 27(4), 23-28. https://doi.org/10.5604/01.3001.0013.1816.

Loertscher, R., & Wolter, F. (1980). Determinants of Intra-Industry Trade: among Countries and across Industries. Review of World Economics, 116(2), 280-293. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02696856.

Luh, Y. H., Jiang, W. J., & Huang, S. C. (2016). Trade-related spillovers and industrial competitiveness: Exploring the linkages for OECD countries. Economic Modelling, 54, 309-325. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.01.002.

Maleki, A., & Khalili, A. Maryam. (2023). Transformations of Global Value Chains and Iran’s Position from 1995 to 2021. Institute for Trade Studies and Research, June 2023.

Melitz, M. J., & Redding, S. J. (2021). Trade and innovation, NBER Working Paper, 28945, Retrieved from https://www.nber.org/papers/w28945.

Miller, D.  (2019). The Resource-Based View of the Firm. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Business and Management. https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190224851.013.4.

Montobbio, F., & Rampa, F. (2005). The impact of technology and structural change on export performance in nine developing countries. World Development, 33(4), 527-547. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2005.01.001

Mendi, P. (2007). Trade in disembodied technology and total factor productivity in OECD countries. Research Policy, 36(1), 121-133.

 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2006.09.028.

Nejati, M., & Akhbari, R. (2019). Technology Gap and the Effect of Foreign Direct Investment on the Productivity of Total Production Factors (Case Study: Iranian Industry). Economic Research (Sustainable Growth and Development), 20(2), 99-120. doi: 20.1001.1.17356768.1399.20.2.5.8.

Porter, M. E. (1990). New Global Strategies for Competitive Advantage. Planning Review, 18(3), 4-14. https://doi.org/10.1108/eb054287.

Posner, M. V. (1961). International Trade and Technical Change. Oxford Economic Papers, 13(3), 323–341. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.oep.a040877.

Pryor, F. L. (1992). A Puzzle about Intra-Industry Trade: A Comment. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 4, 742-746. https://www.jstor.org/stable/40440155.

Rasekhi, S., Sheidaei, Z., & Asadi, S. P. (2016). A Causal Relationship between Trade Efficiency and Economic Efficiency: Evidence from Dynamic Simultaneous Equations Models. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 26(4), 473-487. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2016.1267788.

Report of the Global Innovation Index (2021). World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO). chemin des colombettes, 14th Edition. Retrieved from https://www.wipo.int/publications/en/details.jsp?id=4560.

Ricardo, D. (1817). The theory of comparative advantage. In D. Ricardo, Principles of political economy and taxation (Vol. 1, P. Sraffa, Ed., with the collaboration of M. H. Dobb). Cambridge University Press.

Roodman, D. (2009). How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata. The Stata Journal, 9(1), 86-136. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867X0900900106.

Rugman, A. M., & D’cruz, J. R. (1993). The “Double Diamond” Model of International Competitiveness: The Canadian Experience. MIR: Management International Review, 33, 17-39. https://www.jstor.org/stable/40228188.

Samsami, H., & Totonchi Maleki, S. (2010). Investigating the Direct and Indirect Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on Non-Oil Exports. Economics and Modeling, 1(1), 23-39. https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_57610.html?lang=en.

Sheidaei, Z. (2022). Intra-industry Trade Efficiency and Gains from Trade: Evidence from High- and Middle-Income Countries. SN Social Sciences, 2(10), 213. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43545-022-00523-4.

Silberberger, M., & Königer, J. (2016). Regulation, Trade, and Economic Growth. Economic Systems, 40(2), 308-322. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2016.05.001.

Smith, A. (1776). The Wealth of Nations. Modern (Cannan) Library Edition with the foreword by Max Lerner. N.Y., N.Y

Spithoven, A., & Merlevede, B. (2023). The productivity impact of R&D and FDI spillovers: characterizing regional path development. The Journal of Technology Transfer, 48(2), 560-590. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10961-022-09918-0.

Stavropoulos, S., Wall, R., & Xu, Y. (2018). Environmental regulations and industrial competitiveness: evidence from China. Applied Economics, 50(12), 1378–1394. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2017.1363858.

Suzuki, S., & Nijkamp, P. (2017). Regional performance measurement and improvement. Singapore: Springer.

The Report’s Institute of Trade Studies and Research. (2022). Industrial competitiveness performance of Iran. Retrieved from https://www.itsr.ier.

Tochkov, K. (2022). Trade Efficiency, Cross-Border Integration, and Regional Barriers in Northeast China. The Chinese Economy, 55(1), 13–25. https://doi.org/10.1080/10971475.2021.1892921.

Udriyah, U., Tham, J., & Azam, S. (2019). The Effects of Market Orientation and Innovation on Competitive Advantage and Business Performance of Textile SMEs. Management Science Letters, 9(9), 1419-1428. https://doi.org/10.5267/j.msl.2019.5.009.

United Nations Industrial Development Organization. (2021). The Competitive Industrial Performance Index. Retrieved from https://stat.unido.org.

Vernon, R. (2015). International investment and international trade in the product cycle. In International Business Strategy, 21–32. Routledge.

WIPO (2021). Report of the Global Innovation Index. chemin des colombettes, 14th Edition. Retrieved from https://www.wipo.int/publications/en/details.jsp?id=4560.

Yazdani, M., & Pirpour, H. (2020). Evaluating the effect of intra-industry trade on the bilateral trade productivity for petroleum products of Iran. Energy Economics, 86, 103933. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2018.03.003.

Zamora, E. A. (2016). Value chain analysis: A brief review. Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy, 5(2), 116-128.

Zhang, Y. (2005). Essays on Intra-Industry Trade. (Doctoral Dissertation), The University of Tennessee, Knoxville. Retrieved from ProQuest Dissertations & Theses.

Zhu, H. (2023). The Impact of Regional Trade Agreements on Trade Efficiency in East Asia: A Stochastic Frontier Gravity Approach. Applied Economics Letters,31(18), 1767-1772. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2023.2206612

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات