شبیه سازی اثرات تجارت کربن بر تغییرات ساختاری در اقتصاد ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران.

چکیده

تجارت انتشار کربن یکی از مهم‌ترین ابزارهای سیاستی برای کاهش گازهای گلخانه‌ای و پاسخی مؤثر به چالش تغییرات اقلیمی است که در سطح جهانی مورد توجه قرار گرفته است. با توجه به روند رو به رشد انتشار کربن در ایران و جایگاه ششم این کشور در انتشار کربن دی اکسید در جهان، بررسی آثار اجرای چنین سیاستی در سطح ملی و منطقه‌ای از اهمیت بالایی برخوردار است. در این مطالعه، با بهره‌گیری از مدل تعادل عمومی قابل محاسبه پویا، بازار منطقه‌ای کربن میان ایران و برخی شرکای تجاری منتخب (چین، هند، ترکیه و امارات متحده عربی) برای افق زمانی 2050 شبیه‌سازی شد و اثرات آن بر عملکرد زیست‌محیطی، درآمد، تغییرات ساختاری و تولید ناخالص داخلی ایران ارزیابی گردید. نتایج نشان داد که اجرای بازار کربن به کاهش40/29 درصدی انتشار کربن دی اکسید در ایران منجر می‌شود؛ تولید ناخالص داخلی ایران 3/33درصد کاهش می یابد. سهم تولید بخش برق مبتنی بر سوخت‌های فسیلی15/79درصد، صنایع انرژی‌بر7/13 درصد و خدمات2/65 درصد کاهش یافت، در حالی که سهم برق تولیدی از انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر22/1درصد افزایش می‌یابد. همچنین ایران به دلیل انتشار کمتر از سقف تعیین‌شده قادر خواهد بود از طریق فروش مازاد مجوزهای انتشار، درآمدی معادل، 10162/89 میلیون دلار کسب کند. این درآمد می تواند برای توسعه تولید برق تجدیدپذیر و حمایت از صنایع در تامین مالی هزینه های ارتقا نوآوری و بهبود بهره وری به کارگرفته شود.بنابراین با توجه به نتایج، توسعه بازار انتشارکربن برای ارتقای بهینه سازی ساختار انرژی در ایران و شرکای عمده آن توصیه می شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

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