https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/ Iranian Journal of Economic Studies en daily 1 Mon, 01 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0330 Mon, 01 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0330 https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8589.html Accurate forecasts of the mega-cap technology stocks—Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Microsoft—are vital for risk management and asset allocation. This study proposes a stacking ensemble that fuses Support Vector Regression (SVR), Random Forests (RF) and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) as base learners, with a parsimonious linear meta-learner. We use daily OHLC data from 2 January 2020 to 11 March 2025, a span capturing the volatility of the COVID-19 shock and its aftermath. After differencing to ensure stationarity, the target variable becomes the daily change in closing price (Δ"Close" ). Models are trained on an expanding 80% window and tested on the final 20% of observations. Performance is assessed on strictly out-of-sample predictions using RMSE, MAE, MSE, and R^2. Across all five firms, the ensemble achieves the highest explanatory power (R^2≈0.80"-" 0.83) for predicting daily price changes and lowers RMSE by 8–15% relative to the best individual model. Friedman tests show these improvements are significant at the 1% level for Microsoft, Meta and Alphabet, and at 5% for Amazon; Apple shows no significant difference. The results indicate that combining heterogeneous learners curbs overfitting and exploits complementary nonlinear and temporal signals, producing stable forecasts during extreme market stress. The framework provides investors and policymakers with a validated AI tool for improving risk-return profiles in tech-heavy portfolios and offers methodological guidance for future financial-forecasting research. https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8628.html Based on empirical evidence backed by quantity theory of money, there is a proportionate reaction of the price level to an exogenous increase in the nominal money stock and it can cause a persistent inflation. However, governments control the relation between liquidity growth and inflation in the short run by managing exchange rate. Inflation control through government intervention using exchange rate in Iran, as an oil exporting country took place in last decades. Bearing sanctions in mind, exchange rate had significant overshoots causing two states in Iranian monetary environment. To capture the dynamics, this study using TAR estimation for liquidity, exchange rate and price levels over the period 2001-2025, detected exchange rate growth as the threshold variable at the value of 11% dividing economy into two states. In the low exchange rate regime, exchange rate changes have no statistically significant effect on inflation, while liquidity growth emerges as the primary driver and inflation persistence remains strong through significant lagged effects. In contrast, once the threshold is exceeded, exchange rate depreciation becomes a key and highly significant determinant of inflation, indicating intensified pass-through effects under higher volatility. Although liquidity continues to exert a positive and stronger influence, inflation persistence weakens, suggesting a shift from backward-looking dynamics toward contemporaneous shocks and potentially forward-looking expectations. Liquidity with a larger coefficient than in the lower regime, suggesting that monetary expansion has an even stronger inflationary impact under high exchange rate volatility which could not be suppressed. https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8632.html This study investigates the multidimensional spatial patterns characterizing the relationship between financial stress and financial market growth among companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. The research incorporates three critical dimensions: spatial interdependencies, network structures, and inter-sectoral interactions. The analytical framework employs the innovative Multidimensional Spatial Panel Autoregressive Hybrid Model (MSPAHM), which facilitates simultaneous examination of temporal dynamics, spatial dependencies, and sectoral heterogeneity across the economic landscape. The empirical analysis encompasses a comprehensive dataset of Tehran Stock Exchange-listed companies spanning 2010 to 2024, capturing multiple economic cycles and policy regimes. The findings reveal that financial stress exerts a significant negative impact on firms' financial growth, with effects propagating through spatial spillover mechanisms to interconnected companies within the broader economic network. This transmission occurs across both direct and indirect channels, creating cascading effects throughout the market structure. Notably, the analysis identifies substantial sectoral variation in vulnerability patterns. Capital-intensive and import-dependent industries demonstrate heightened susceptibility to financial stress shocks, with effect magnitudes intensifying markedly during periods of economic sanctions and maximum pressure policies. These results underscore the dynamic and networked nature of financial stress, emphasizing its dependence on sectoral characteristics and temporal contexts. The study concludes that effective policy intervention requires adopting a systemic approach grounded in comprehensive network analysis, enabling policymakers to anticipate spillover effects and design targeted interventions that account for the interconnected nature of firm-level financial distress within the broader economic ecosystem. https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8640.html This study identifies a theoretical puzzle: while agency theory predicts that all forms of uncertainty increase accounting conservatism as a precautionary buffer, we find that market turbulence reduces it. This paradoxical reversal cannot be explained by standard risk-aversion frameworks. Using a balanced panel of 154 firms listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange over 2015-2024 (1,540 firm-year observations), we employ FGLS as our primary estimator, complemented by System GMM to address endogeneity. Our findings reveal a fundamental asymmetry consistent with our proposed Conditional Dominance Framework: market risk has a positive and significant effect on conservatism, supporting the agency-theoretic view of conservatism as a rational response to mitigate agency costs. Conversely, market turbulence exerts a negative and significant impact, consistent with Prospect Theory's prediction that under ambiguity and loss-domain conditions, managers become risk-seeking and abandon prudent reporting. Critically, this behavioral reversal is not constant but is activated and amplified by adverse macroeconomic conditions—inflation and exchange rate depreciation—which act as cognitive regime-switches. Economic growth and higher real interest rates weaken these relationships. The primary contribution is demonstrating that financial reporting conservatism is not merely a strategic response but a fragile defense mechanism that systematically collapses under extreme macro-volatility, challenging the implicit assumption that conservatism always increases with uncertainty. Our findings offer critical insights for managers, investors, and policymakers navigating volatile emerging economies.  https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8649.html This study employs a calibrated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model to compare endogenous liquidity creation and its allocation in Iran, Armenia, and Azerbaijan over 2005–2024. It significantly contributes by introducing a structural Liquidity Distribution Indicator (LDI), measuring the share of bank-created liquidity allocated to firm lending. Countries are selected based on similar Liquidity Creation Intensity (LCI), defined as the ratio of central bank borrowing to total deposits. The model features a representative household and bank with financial frictions to analyze how balance sheet liquidity allocation affects the transmission of a –1% lending rate shock, interpreted as a relaxation of credit conditions before and after COVID-19. Calibrated to country-specific financial structures and solved using a fully nonlinear routine, the model generates impulse responses from nonlinear transition dynamics. Results show that before COVID-19, banks in Iran and Armenia allocated a relatively small share of liquidity to firm lending, with Azerbaijan displaying a similar pattern driven by state-dominated intermediation. Although post-COVID liquidity support temporarily increased lending shares, structural banking features continued to constrain effective monetary transmission. Overall, interest rate policy alone appears insufficient to mitigate risks from concentrated liquidity allocation; strengthening credit allocation mechanisms and banking intermediation is essential for macro-financial stability. https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8698.html This study investigates the nonlinear, state-dependent dynamics of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) across Producer Price Index (PPI) sub-sectors in Iran, utilizing quarterly time-series data spanning from 2000Q2 to 2025Q4. Employing a threshold regression framework to capture asymmetric price transmission under varying macroeconomic conditions, the analysis distinguishes between low- and high-inflation expectations regimes. Empirical findings reveal a pronounced regime-dependent escalation in ERPT; at the aggregate level, pass-through elasticity surges from 0.525 in the low-inflation regime to 0.730 in the high-inflation regime, underscoring the pivotal role of inflation expectations in amplifying the transmission of exchange rate shocks into producer prices. This pattern persists robustly across more than two decades of structural economic evolution. Sectoral heterogeneity is particularly evident, with manufacturing and agriculture exhibiting the most significant increases (from 0.607 to 0.938 and 0.467 to 0.868, respectively), reflecting their enduring reliance on imported intermediate inputs. Similarly, the mining and oil & gas sectors demonstrate marked regime shifts consistent with nonlinear adjustment mechanisms in resource-based production. Collectively, these results confirm that ERPT in the Iranian economy is fundamentally nonlinear and state-dependent, with inflation expectations serving as a critical amplification channel. Consequently, the study emphasizes the necessity of accounting for regime shifts, long-run structural transformations, and seasonal dynamics to accurately model exchange rate transmission to producer prices. https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8696.html This study employs spatial econometric methods to examine the impact of gas consumption on electricity consumption across Iranian provinces from 2006 to 2019. Key variables analyzed include gas consumption, gross domestic product, urban population, average temperature, and average electricity prices. The results indicate that provincial income, population, total gas consumption, and degree of industrialization positively influence electricity consumption, with industrialized provinces exhibiting higher electricity demand. Furthermore, total gas consumption significantly increases electricity consumption, reflecting the essential role of gas in electricity generation. The positive and significant spatial lag coefficient of electricity consumption highlights the importance of spatial dependence, suggesting that increases in electricity consumption in one province lead to corresponding increases in neighboring provinces. Overall, the findings confirm the significant effect of gas consumption on electricity demand while emphasizing spatial spillover effects among provinces. https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8694.html This study examines the asymmetric and nonlinear effects of exchange rate fluctuations on Iran’s stock market index and industrial production over the period 2009–2024, with the explicit aim of quantifying the differential sensitivity of financial and real sectors to currency depreciation and appreciation shocks under varying macroeconomic regimes. A hybrid analytical framework is employed, integrating the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model for asymmetric cointegration analysis, a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) for endogenous regime identification, Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) for Bayesian uncertainty quantification, and a Transformer architecture for temporal attention-based forecasting. Monthly data spanning 2009–2024 are utilized, with all variables confirmed as through ADF, PP, and KPSS unit root tests. Bounds testing confirms stable long-run cointegrating relationships in both models ( and , respectively). Long-run asymmetry is significant in both sectors; negative shocks exert effects approximately times larger than positive shocks in the stock market ( vs. ) and times larger in industrial production ( vs. ). The HMM identifies two structurally distinct regimes — stable and turbulent — wherein turbulent-regime coefficients exceed stable-regime estimates by a factor exceeding two. The hybrid framework achieves RMSE reductions of 38% and 24% over benchmark models for the stock market and industrial production, respectively. Exchange rate shocks in Iran operate through asymmetric, regime-dependent, and nonlinear channels, with financial markets exhibiting substantially greater sensitivity than the real sector. Symmetric currency management policies are structurally inadequate; preemptive, regime-sensitive intervention instruments are required. https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8723.html Governance quality and democracy are important pillars of sustainable green finance. The establishment of transparent legal frameworks, effective anti-corruption controls, and improved regulatory quality are essential to increase investor confidence in green financial markets. This study seeks to evaluate the role of institutional quality and democracy in the effectiveness of economic policies related to green finance from 2006 to 2023. Using Driscoll–Kraay standard error regressions, Westerlund and Kao cointegration tests, the GMM estimator, and the JKS Granger non‑causality test, the results show that democracy and governance quality have positive and significant effects on green investment development across high‑, middle‑, and low‑income countries. The presence of democratic institutions and transparent governance enhances the efficiency of macroeconomic policies in promoting renewable‑energy expansion. The effect of fiscal policies is positive and significant in high-income countries, while in lower-income countries, institutional weakness and corruption weaken this effect. In addition, combining monetary and fiscal policies with high-quality institutions generates a synergistic effect on green financial growth. Our findings reveal that the success of economic policies in advancing environmental goals depends on the institutional and democratic structure of countries. The study recommends aligning macroeconomic policies with environmental objectives and integrating sustainability criteria into fiscal and monetary policy frameworks, particularly within central banks and finance ministries. https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8792.html This study examines whether economic development reshapes financial structure in line with the predictions of New Structural Financial Economics (NSFE). The theory argues that financial systems evolve endogenously alongside changes in industrial structure and financing needs, gradually shifting from bank-based to more market-oriented arrangements as economies develop. Using a panel of BRICS economies over the period 1998–2024, this paper analyzes how economic development and financial structure are related over the long run. A composite financial structure index is constructed through Principal Component Analysis based on financial structure size and activity indicators. Before estimation, cross-sectional dependence, slope heterogeneity, panel unit roots, and panel cointegration are systematically examined to ensure the validity of the empirical analysis. The Group-Mean Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (GM-FMOLS) estimator is applied to estimate the long-run coefficients, while the Augmented Mean Group (AMG) estimator serves as a robustness check. The empirical results reveal a positive and statistically significant effect of real GDP per capita on financial structure across alternative model specifications. The findings provide robust empirical support for the New Structural Economics framework and suggest that financial systems evolve in line with structural transformation and the dynamic financing needs of the real economy, while institutional quality variables and pandemic conditions are controlled throughout the analysis consistently.    https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8809.html Many countries in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are struggling with common problems, particularly of low tax revenue performance, financial exclusion and poor governance institutional quality. Despite persistence of these challenges, empirical studies on the impact of financial inclusion and institutional quality on tax revenue performance with exclusive focus on MENA countries are not common in the literature. Using a panel data set of 11 MENA countries for the period spanning from 2004 to 2022 and a dynamic panel model and system GMM estimation techniques, this study examined the impact of financial inclusion and governance institutional quality on tax revenue performance. The findings revealed that financial inclusion has a positive and significant impact on tax revenue performance. However, the positive marginal effect of financial inclusion on tax revenue performance tends to diminish with improvement in the governance institutional quality. The study concludes that improving institutional quality, particularly those that will enhance political stability and reduce incidences of violence will help in unlocking tax revenue potentials of MENA countries. This is particularly important in countries where problems of poor institutional quality are more serious. Overall, the study offers useful insights for policymakers interested in maximising the potential benefits of financial inclusion in improving tax revenue performance. https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8856.html Pricing energy below its full economic cost creates allocative inefficiencies and undermines the fiscal sustainability of the energy sector, making energy price reform a crucial policy priority in many economies. However, such reforms can generate adverse short-run effects on economic activity and household welfare, highlighting the need for well-targeted stabilization measures. This study evaluates alternative complementary policies implemented alongside electricity price reform in Iran using a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (DCGE) model. In the baseline scenario, electricity prices increase by 18% annually. Five tax-based stabilization policies are then assessed, covering taxes on labor income, capital income, factor demand, and output in the industrial and agricultural sectors. The results indicate that higher electricity prices contract output in the short run, particularly in energy-intensive sectors such as iron and steel, information technology (IT), and electricity. In contrast, some fossil fuel-dependent sectors benefit from substitution effects, while several sectors expand in the long run; nevertheless, adverse effects persist in selected modern industries. None of the examined fiscal policies fully offsets the negative effects of the electricity price shock. However, eliminating production taxes in agriculture and industry (S15) performs relatively better by partially mitigating output losses in key sectors. Moreover, S15 and S12 outperform the benchmark in reducing inflationary pressures and supporting GDP, although they reduce household consumption and welfare. Overall, the findings demonstrate that effective compensation requires policies tailored to the structural characteristics of the economy and appropriate sector-specific adjustment mechanisms over time. https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8808.html While numerous studies have examined the factors influencing the exchange rate in Iran, the assessment of the relative importance and contribution of each of these factors—particularly liquidity and uncertainty—in explaining exchange rate fluctuations has received less attention. This study addresses an important gap in the existing literature by examining the effects of liquidity and various dimensions of uncertainty—including global uncertainty, global economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk, energy uncertainty, and oil price uncertainty—on the exchange rate. The study is able to estimate the most important determinants of exchange rate fluctuations in Iran over the period 2012 to 2023 using tree-based ensemble methods and the SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations) approach. The empirical findings indicate that money supply, with an average importance of 89 percent, is the most influential variable affecting the exchange rate in the Iranian economy. Energy uncertainty (EUI), geopolitical risk (GPR), global uncertainty (WUI), and oil price uncertainty (OPU) are ranked next, each with an average contribution of about 1 percent. According to the results, compared to the money supply, uncertainty plays a less significant role in the formation and persistence of exchange rate fluctuations in the Iranian economy and does not play a decisive role in sustaining these fluctuations. https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8818.html A fundamental objective of many countries is to achieve stable economic growth. However, developing economies face numerous challenges due to their reliance on the export of a single product. Export diversification is widely considered an effective policy for reducing economic vulnerability and a key element of economic development during the structural transformation from primary commodity production toward industrial goods. Given the importance of export diversification and the widespread incidence of corruption, investigating the relationship between these two variables has become increasingly important. This study examines the nonlinear effect of corruption on export diversification in a sample of developing countries over the 2005–2023 period using the Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model. The Control of Corruption (COC) index is employed as the transition variable. The estimation results provide evidence of a strong nonlinear relationship among the variables and support a two-regime specification with a threshold value of 0.3913 and a slope parameter of 1.93. The findings show that corruption is positively and statistically significantly associated with export diversification in the first regime, whereas this relationship turns negative and remains statistically significant in the second regime. These results therefore confirm the inverted U-shaped relationship between corruption and export diversification for the countries examined. Natural resource abundance, financial development, and trade openness exert positive and statistically significant effects on export diversification in both regimes. In addition, real per capita income and information and communication technology have positive and statistically significant effects once the threshold level is exceeded. https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8865.html This study investigates the transmission mechanisms through which global oil market dynamics propagate systemic financial stress within the Iranian economy. Given Iran’s persistent reliance on oil revenues, analyzing the transmission of external shocks into domestic financial markets is imperative for maintaining macroeconomic stability. We construct a composite Financial Stress Index (FSI) incorporating the stock, money, debt, and foreign exchange markets. Subsequently, we utilize a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) framework to analyze the dynamic responses of these sectors to four primary oilmarket shocks: real oil prices, global crude production, OECD inventories, and global economic activity. Empirical results reveal that oil market shocks exert significant, heterogeneous, and dynamic effects on the Iranian financial system. The equity market emerges as the primary transmission channel, displaying the highest sensitivity to external shocks over time. Furthermore, we identify temporal asymmetries where initial responses frequently reverse in the medium term, indicating complex adjustment dynamics within the domestic financial network. These findings demonstrate that “one-size-fits-all” stabilization policies are ineffective. Consequently, policymakers should prioritize liquidity-anchoring mechanisms and volatility mitigation strategies in equity markets, while implementing coordinated monetary interventions to contain spillover effects across other financial sectors. By integrating global oil-market proxies into early-warning systems, this research provides a robust framework for proactive risk management in oil-dependent Iran economies.  https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8868.html Economic growth, as a paramount indicator of a nation's economic performance, is shaped by numerous determinants, among which taxation occupies a pivotal position. Government fiscal policies—especially those concerning taxation—fulfill an essential role in securing financial resources and influencing the behavioral incentives of economic agents. Capital gains tax (CGT) constitutes one of the most significant tax instruments, implemented to achieve major fiscal policy objectives. The present study aims to investigate the effects of capital gains taxation on economic growth within the member countries of the OECD over the period 2000–2021, utilizing panel data and employing the Generalized Method of Moments (Difference GMM) estimator. Due to missing data for some variables in certain member countries, the analysis is based on a sample of 35 OECD countries for which complete and consistent data were available. The results indicate a positive and significant effect of CGT on economic growth. This finding suggests that in the countries under study, capital gains tax has, through various channels, contributed to greater dynamism in the capital market and directed financial resources toward productive activities. The additional findings of the study indicate that the lagged economic growth rate has a positive effect on current economic growth, reflecting persistence in the growth process and the cumulative impact of underlying factors. Moreover, the growth rates of trade openness, financial development, and capital formation are positively associated with economic growth, whereas the growth rates of government consumption expenditures and inflation exert a negative and significant effect. Accordingly, it can be inferred that developing countries, by providing the necessary economic and financial infrastructure and utilizing such forms of taxation, can achieve a positive impact on their economic growth.  https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8881.html This study examines the dynamic incentive paradox in microfinance, the tension whereby incentives that improve loan repayment discourage risky, high-return investments needed to escape poverty, and investigates whether an endogenously chosen contract rule can resolve it. We conducted a lab-in-the-field experiment with 60 active microfinance borrowers in Isfahan Province, Iran, across ten treatments varying liability structure, dynamic incentives, and peer mechanisms, yielding a panel dataset of 5,235 observations analyzed with borrower fixed-effects models. Consistent with the dynamic incentive paradox in this sample, dynamic incentives were associated with reductions in both risky-project selection and default rates, but the reduction in risk-taking consistently and substantially exceeded the reduction in default, pointing to a net cost to borrowers' earning capacity. This effect was strongest under peer monitoring and individual liability, and weaker when borrowers could communicate freely or endogenously choose group members. Prior to two of the ten treatments, borrower groups had the option of adopting an equal-sharing profit rule; groups that did so saw significantly higher risk-taking and cumulative earnings without a proportional rise in default, indicating that this self-selected rule functioned as an effective intra-group insurance mechanism even under dynamic-incentive pressure. Young women with a prior debt history were the most sensitive to the suppressive effects of dynamic incentives, while the magnitude of the paradox varied with socio-institutional context and borrower characteristics. These findings suggest that sustainable microfinance contract design may benefit from project failure insurance, multidimensional performance metrics, and demographically informed group structures, alongside greater borrower autonomy in setting profit-sharing rules.  https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8899.html This study examines the relationship between bureaucratic quality and economic growth in Afghanistan over the period 1991–2020 using secondary data and an auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. The analysis examines both the long-run relationship between bureaucratic quality and economic growth and whether this relationship varies across periods characterized by distinct political and institutional conditions. The results show that, contrary to expectations, bureaucratic quality does not have a statistically significant positive effect on long-run economic growth. The findings also show that this relationship varies across political periods. During the civil war period, bureaucratic quality was negatively and significantly associated with economic growth, while this negative relationship was weaker during the republic period. The results further show that the republic period was associated with higher average economic growth. Overall, the findings suggest that the contribution of bureaucracy to economic growth depends significantly on the broader political and institutional environment. Therefore, political stability, security, and the rule of law are important conditions for enhancing the role of bureaucracy in promoting economic growth. The findings also emphasize the importance of strengthening human and physical capital as complementary foundations for long-term economic growth. https://ijes.shirazu.ac.ir/article_8956.html The transition toward a Circular Economy (CE) is increasingly recognized as a strategy for improving resource efficiency and strengthening sustainable trade. This study examines the dynamic relationship between CE development and Iran’s exports of traditional and modern goods using quarterly data for 2015Q1–2024Q4. A composite CE Index is constructed from recycling, resource productivity, renewable energy use, waste-management efficiency, and material reuse. Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) indices are calculated for traditional and modern goods. The analysis employs ARDL/UECM, and other Econometrics Models. The results show that the CE Index has a positive and statistically significant short-run effect on traditional exports, while its long-run coefficient is positive but statistically insignificant. For modern exports, the CE effect is insignificant but becomes positive and marginally significant in the long run. RCA is the strongest and most robust determinant of export performance in both sectors, with a substantially larger effect for modern goods. GDP generally supports export performance, whereas exchange-rate effects are more pronounced in the traditional-export model. Innovation has a positive but statistically insignificant effect on modern exports. Impulse-response results indicate strong persistence in both export categories and positive responses to CE shocks, although these responses should be interpreted cautiously. Overall, Iran’s export structure remains concentrated in traditional goods, while modern exports face competitiveness and technology constraints. The findings suggest complementing CE policies with comparative-advantage development, technological upgrading, and export diversification strategies.