Monetary economics
Ali Afzali; Ali Taiebnia; Mohsen Mehrara
Abstract
Credit is the basis for financing and stimulating investments. However, excess credit can be the source of systemic risks and financial crises. In this paper, using Iran’s credit data from 2000 to 2019, the Basel credit gap was calculated as a recommended indicator for measuring excessive credit. ...
Read More
Credit is the basis for financing and stimulating investments. However, excess credit can be the source of systemic risks and financial crises. In this paper, using Iran’s credit data from 2000 to 2019, the Basel credit gap was calculated as a recommended indicator for measuring excessive credit. We perceive that in the years in which the economy is suffering from currency overvaluation; for example, from 2005 to 2011, excess credit is noticeably visible. Moreover, in periods with a fair exchange rate, for instance, from 2000 to 2004, no excess credit was observed. Using capital buffers is an essential regulatory policy to reduce the risk of excess credit. So, the counter-cyclical capital buffer was calculated for all these periods. We also found that Basel’s credit gap has good power in predicting exchange crises in Iran. It seems that the root cause of excessive credit and foreign currency jumps should be sought in the exchange rate-based stabilization plan in Iran (exchange rate anchor). Nonetheless, policymakers can reduce the probability and severity of crises by strengthening the bank credit sector’s regulatory systems and using the proposed buffers.
Public Economics
Elham Khorasani Kordeh Koohi; Reza Najarzadeh
Abstract
Wagner's Law states that the relative size of public sector increases with the growth of per capita income. This study examines whether there is empirical evidence that Wagner’s law holds in the Iranian economy using time series annual data over the period 1985-2018 in Iran, applying cointegration ...
Read More
Wagner's Law states that the relative size of public sector increases with the growth of per capita income. This study examines whether there is empirical evidence that Wagner’s law holds in the Iranian economy using time series annual data over the period 1985-2018 in Iran, applying cointegration and vector error correction modelling (VECM) techniques. In particular, this study provides a special focus on examining the validity of the versions of Wagner’s hypothesis, which supports the existence of long-run relationship between public expenditure and economic growth. The results of the estimates demonstrate that this law holds in Iran. The elasticity of the government expenditures with respect to national income must be greater than one for the Wagner’s law to hold. However, government’s spending on health and education has been less than expected. Therefore, considering all the government’s spending, Wagner's law is valid in Iran. On the other hand, by examining government expenditures in health and education sector as the most important part of the government expenditures, it is seen that the revenue elasticity of government expenditures in the health and education sectors is less than one. Accordingly, our estimates for Iran do not confirm this law. Although the absolute size of the public sector grows when the income increases, its rate of growth in these sectors is substantially lower than the growth of income. This could suggest that the government does not pay enough attention to health and education sectors and that these are not priorities of the government.
Malihe Eskandary; Mohammad Taghi Taghavifard; Iman Raeesi Vanani; Soroush Ghazi Noori
Abstract
The restrictions of government resources and the recent alterations in the economy have prompted government agencies to employ the capacities of private sector in all infrastructures. In this regard, a variety of financing methods, including the participatory models, have been applied for many years ...
Read More
The restrictions of government resources and the recent alterations in the economy have prompted government agencies to employ the capacities of private sector in all infrastructures. In this regard, a variety of financing methods, including the participatory models, have been applied for many years in the water and wastewater industry of Iran. The aim of this study is to identify and prioritize the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) indicators in the water and wastewater industry of Iran via machine learning techniques. To this end, after collecting, preparing and preprocessing the data, weighted indexing techniques including information gain and Gini index were utilized to prioritize the PPP factors. The results indicated that 93% of the indicators were effective in predicting the success of the projects. To compare the two methods, the precision of Naïve Bayes and Random Forest classifiers were taken into account and the information gain method yielded more reasonable findings with one percent difference. The evaluation of indicators elucidated that "complaints about service quality," "contract type," and "Conventional tariffs" revealed a huge impact on the success of collaborative projects. Among the 15 indicators, eight were directly pertinent to the project financing which is the main concern in this industry.
Monetary economics
Nasrin Mansouri; Behrouz Sadeghi Amroabadi
Abstract
This study has investigated the effect of Central Banks transparency and independence on productivity growth during 1981–2018 in Iranian economy. Transparency and independence of central bank were measured by Dincer and Eichengreen index and Cukierman index respectively. The variables in this study ...
Read More
This study has investigated the effect of Central Banks transparency and independence on productivity growth during 1981–2018 in Iranian economy. Transparency and independence of central bank were measured by Dincer and Eichengreen index and Cukierman index respectively. The variables in this study which are in annual form are central bank transparency, central bank independence, GDP growth, productivity growth, inflation rate and free trade. Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method was used for model estimation. The coefficient of the error term is negative, statistically significant and equal to -0.308. It can be concluded that 30% of the short-run disequilibrium is adjusted to achieve long-run equilibrium. The results show that the transparency of the central bank has a positive effect and the coefficient is equal to 0.36 on productivity growth in the short-run, but it is effective on productivity growth in the long-run equal to 1.08. In the short-run, the independence of the central bank has a negative and significant effect on productivity growth equal to -3.09, but in the long-run the effect of this variable is positive and equal to 1.09.
Social Economic
Sajjad Barkhordari; Naser Ali Azimi
Abstract
Moving towards a knowledge-based economy is an important factor for developing countries. Achieving this goal requires improving different pillars such as innovation. Governance quality is a key factor to create innovation pillars and improve innovative activities. In this paper, we describe the impact ...
Read More
Moving towards a knowledge-based economy is an important factor for developing countries. Achieving this goal requires improving different pillars such as innovation. Governance quality is a key factor to create innovation pillars and improve innovative activities. In this paper, we describe the impact of governance quality on improving innovation in selected MENA countries during 2009-2018. We used an empirical model and panel data method to describe the relationship between governance quality and innovative activities by considering control variables such as inflation, domestic credit provided by the financial sector (%GDP), the net inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI), and trade (%GDP). Empirical results indicate that the governance quality has a positive and significant effect on the performance of innovation in MENA countries. The positive effect of the governance quality sub-indices indicates that an improving institutional environment is necessary to stimulate innovation activities. The results also show that trade in MENA a country not only harms but also discourages innovative activities. According to empirical results, we propose that improving governance quality concentrated on government effectiveness and control of corruption is essential for innovative activities in MENA countries.
Marzieh Pirahmadi; Zahra Afshari; Mehdi Sarem
Abstract
In order to facilitate transactions among banks, the interbank market has been established in Iran since 2008. The primary objective of this market is to eliminate banking system liquidity deficiencies at a rate chosen by the Central bank of Iran. The importance of this rate is that it affects market ...
Read More
In order to facilitate transactions among banks, the interbank market has been established in Iran since 2008. The primary objective of this market is to eliminate banking system liquidity deficiencies at a rate chosen by the Central bank of Iran. The importance of this rate is that it affects market interest rates through its effects on banks’ balance sheets. Banks’ balance sheets are also influenced by banking regulation, such as Basel regulations; thus, this study was aimed to investigate the effects of the interbank market in Iran by imposing Basel III regulations on the banking system. For this purpose, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) was designed that included the interbank market. The structural parameters of the designed model were estimated using the Bayesian method and the quarterly data on the period 2008-2015. Afterward, the effect of a positive interbank innovation on the economy’s dynamics was examined. The results showed that an increase in the interbank rate led to instability in the economy. It was concluded that an increase in the liquidity and capital adequacy requirement, as mentioned in the Basel III regulations, would reduce the negative effects of interbank shocks on macroeconomic variables and the economy would naturally become more stable.
Public Economics
Naser Olfati; Mahbubeh Delfan; Mohamad Alizadeh; Sohrab Delangizan
Abstract
the purpose of this study is to investigate the effects and consequences of financial policy instruments on macroeconomic variables according to their usage .in order to provide a comprehensive analysis of the above - mentioned works , a dynamic open dynamic general equilibrium model with respect to ...
Read More
the purpose of this study is to investigate the effects and consequences of financial policy instruments on macroeconomic variables according to their usage .in order to provide a comprehensive analysis of the above - mentioned works , a dynamic open dynamic general equilibrium model with respect to the household , agency , government , and central bank is designed to fit the characteristics of iranian economy in which households are considered as two categories : Ricardo and nonRicardo .in the financial sector , government expenditures have been divided into three parts : cost of goods , public goods and construction costs and also government tax revenues as financial instruments are divided into three categories : tax rate tax rate , tax rate and tax rate on capital .the structural parameters of the model were estimated using seasonal data of 1399 - 1383 .the results of the model simulation show that the increase of a tax rate in order to finance government expenditures depends on the nature of government spending ( current or construction ) and the goal of nonpolitician so that if the goal is to provide the current expenditure and the government is willing to reduce the consumption and production costs , then it is necessary to increase the rate of tax on consumption or the rate of tax on investment .
Institutional Economics
Zahra Kheiridoust; Farshad Momeni; Amir khadem Alizadeh; Bahareh Nasiri
Abstract
Cultural, social, and economic changes are closely correlated, however, understanding such a relationship requires a theoretical model. The current paper has provided a conceptual model for explaining the relationship between culture and economy. Some economists consider culture as resistant to change ...
Read More
Cultural, social, and economic changes are closely correlated, however, understanding such a relationship requires a theoretical model. The current paper has provided a conceptual model for explaining the relationship between culture and economy. Some economists consider culture as resistant to change and some others consider it very flexible. Moreover, some consider cultural values as universal and some as specific to societies. The purpose of this paper is to outline the relationship between these theories and provide a model for the complicated relationship between culture and economic development and understand cultural stabilization and changes. The main question is why some societies are incapable of expanding universal values. We applied conceptual discourse analysis. The analyses are performed in the "new institutional economics" framework. Three issues were discussed: First of all the speed and orientation of cultural changes, then the process of socialization and cultural transfer. The relation between culture and formal institutions and also the Hobbesian problem are the last issues covered in this paper to build a model of cultural stabilization and change in a developing economy.
Energy Economics
Mojtaba Pourghorban; Siab Mamipour
Abstract
The restructuring of Iranian electricity industry allowed electricity price to be determined through market forces in 2005. The main purpose of this paper is to present a method for modeling and forecasting the electricity prices based on complex features such as instability, nonlinear conditions, and ...
Read More
The restructuring of Iranian electricity industry allowed electricity price to be determined through market forces in 2005. The main purpose of this paper is to present a method for modeling and forecasting the electricity prices based on complex features such as instability, nonlinear conditions, and high fluctuations in Iran during the spring 2013 and winter 2018. For this purpose, time-series data of the daily average electricity price was decomposed into one approximation series (low frequency) and four details series (high frequency) utilizing the wavelet transform technique. The approximation and details series are estimated and predicted by ARIMA and GARCH models, respectively. Then, the electricity price is predicted by reconstructing and composing the forecasted values of different frequencies as a proposed method (Wavelet-ARMA-GARCH). The results demonstrated that the proposed method has higher predictive power and can forecast volatility of electricity prices more accurately by taking into consideration different domains of the time-frequency; although, more errors are produced if the wavelet transform process is not used. The mean absolute percentage error values of the proposed method during spring 2017 to winter 2018 are significantly less than that of the alternative method, and the proposed method can better and more accurately capture the complex features of electricity prices.
Younos Vakil Alroaia; Zahra Zolfaghari; Mohammad Reza Sotoudeh
Abstract
Food is considered as an integral part of tourism experience, and culinary tourism is a relatively new concept in the tourism industry. Culinary tourism deals with cookery, cuisines, and food ways of a country, region, or locale as a unique and memorable activity. The present study was aimed to prioritize ...
Read More
Food is considered as an integral part of tourism experience, and culinary tourism is a relatively new concept in the tourism industry. Culinary tourism deals with cookery, cuisines, and food ways of a country, region, or locale as a unique and memorable activity. The present study was aimed to prioritize factors influencing culinary tourism development using marketing mix strategy in Khorasan Razavi province, Iran. This applied research was performed by descriptive–survey method. The population consisted of experts in tourism and hotel management as well as experts in food industry, cookery, and restaurant management. Using stratified random sampling, first 200 participants were selected to fill the questionnaire, in order to identify effective factors, and then, 10 experts were asked to rank these factors. Confirmatory factor analysis and Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process were employed to analyze the data. Findings of the study suggested that, among the four marketing mix strategies, price-related factors with a normal weight of 0.033 ranked first, and in terms of sub criteria related to study dimensions, matching prices to product quality and branding of local food products with a weight of 0.095 and 0.093, respectively were identified as the top factors influencing culinary tourism development.
Public Economics
Somaye Rasouli Firoozabadi; Nazar Dahmarde Ghaleno; Mohammad Nabi SHahiki Tash
Abstract
The primary objective of the present article is to study the impact of positive shocks in government expenditures during different financial periods on economic variables in Iran. To this end, first, financial condition index was created through principal components analysis. Then, using LR non-linear ...
Read More
The primary objective of the present article is to study the impact of positive shocks in government expenditures during different financial periods on economic variables in Iran. To this end, first, financial condition index was created through principal components analysis. Then, using LR non-linear test and the data related to the period of 2005 to 2018, while studying non-linearity, the value of the variable threshold variable is estimated exogenously. Therefore, the value of the threshold of financial index is considered to be -0.36. Threshold Vector Autoregression Model (TVAR) with the assumption of the possibility of regime switching and generalized impulse-response functions are extracted to examine the impact of positive and negative shocks in government expenditures. Based on the results, the reaction of economic variables to positive shocks in government expenditures will be independent from financial periods whereas the reaction to negative shocks in government expenditures is influenced by financial periods, especially the period of recession. financial sector cannot improve real sector due to structural problems. increasing government authority, lack of competition space between public and private sector, allocating inefficient government spending have caused that financial sector cannot significant effect on economic real sector such as economic growth And in some cases we will see the negative impact of this sector.
Econometrics
Amin Aminimehr; Ali Raoofi; Akbar Aminimehr; Amirhossein Aminimehr
Abstract
In this research, the impact of different preprocessing methods on the Long-Short term memory in predicting the financial time series was examined. At first, the model was implemented on the Tehran stock exchange index by utilizing the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) model on 78 technical indicators. ...
Read More
In this research, the impact of different preprocessing methods on the Long-Short term memory in predicting the financial time series was examined. At first, the model was implemented on the Tehran stock exchange index by utilizing the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) model on 78 technical indicators. Then, the same model was implemented by the advantage of the random forest to select features rather than the PCA to extract them. In the next step, other technical strategy dummy variables were added to the model to examine the changes in its performance. Finally, two deep learning methods with the advantage of only target lags were deployed to compare the accuracy to the other models. The first deep model was plain but the second one was with the advantage of the Wavelet denoising process. The results of the MSE, MAE, MAPE, and R2 score on unseen test sequences showed that applying the Long Short-Term Memory with its own deep feature extraction procedure and the wavelet’s denoising process leads to the best accuracy in prediction of the Tehran stock exchange index. Finally, the Diebold Mariano test exposed a significant difference between the accuracy of the best model and the rest. This result implied that although the application of deep learning gains accurate results, it can be alleviated by feeding the model with creatively extracted and denoised features.
Sayed Yahya Abtahi; Elham Amrollahi Bioki
Abstract
This study was an attempt to analyze the dynamic reaction of the exchange market pressure (EMP) to different states of the foreign exchange market and inflation in the Iranian economy during 1988:4-2017:4. To this end, the EMP index was calculated using Edwards’s (2002) and Kumah’s (2007) ...
Read More
This study was an attempt to analyze the dynamic reaction of the exchange market pressure (EMP) to different states of the foreign exchange market and inflation in the Iranian economy during 1988:4-2017:4. To this end, the EMP index was calculated using Edwards’s (2002) and Kumah’s (2007) formulae. By considering inflation as the threshold variable and using Threshold Vector Autoregressive (TVAR) model, the results showed that lagged variables had no significant effects on EMP in a low inflation regime, but inflation had significant effects on EMP in a high inflation regime. The results of using the Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive (MS-VAR) model showed that in EMP and INF equations, the autoregressive coefficients in all lags and in both regimes were significant; this emphasizes the stability of the estimated VAR model. Based on the results of the MS-VAR equations, the results of the Granger Causality Test showed that when the EMP switched to a high regime, the inflation would have a significant impact on the EMP, but in the regimes where the EMP was at a low level, the inflation was not the cause of the EMP. EMP in low inflation regimes could also affect inflation while EMP was not the cause of inflation in high inflation regimes. Therefore, the policymakers should note that increasing EMP, even in low inflation regimes, can lead to pressure on prices. On the other hand, an increase in the foreign reserves causes the EMP to switch to a high regime; then, the inflationary pressures at any level of the inflation rate can exacerbate the exchange market pressure, and policymakers would be unable to control the currency market. Thus, if the EMP is controlled, the effects of inflation on the EMP will be discontinued, and this is a key point for policymakers.
Other
Meymanat Ebrahimi; Mohammad Vaez Barzani; leila Torki; Hassan Heydari
Abstract
In this paper, the impact of monetary shocks on asset changes and the financial liabilities of different institutional sectors were examined. Afterwards, financial and non-financial tools of the private sector’s balance sheet in the funds flow account were analyzed. For this purpose, the data from ...
Read More
In this paper, the impact of monetary shocks on asset changes and the financial liabilities of different institutional sectors were examined. Afterwards, financial and non-financial tools of the private sector’s balance sheet in the funds flow account were analyzed. For this purpose, the data from 1973 to 2017 of the factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model was employed. Results show that expansionary monetary shock has led to a rise in the assets and financial liabilities belonging to institutional sectors in the first year. With regard to the private sector and the financial tools of its balance sheet, monetary shock significantly impacts this sector’s long-term deposit while it has a weak insignificant impact on the short-term deposit. The monetary shock also has a strong significant impact on the private sector’s taking long-term loans while it has a weak insignificant impact on the short-term loans taken by the same sector. Regarding the non-financial tools of this sector, the expansionary monetary shock has a positive effect on the construction and machinery investment in the short run. In the long run, however, the two variables’ responses are reversed which indicates the negative effect of monetary shock caused by an increase in oil revenues on the private sector’s investment in both the construction and the machinery sector. As a result, it can be concluded that the oil revenue reduces the private sector’s relative size in Iran economy.
Energy Economics
Elham Gholampour; Teymour Mohammadi; Asghar Abolhasani hastiani; Mohsen Mehrara
Abstract
This paper primarily focuses on the global macroeconomic consequence, which are the result of country-specific oil supply shocks using the GVAR-Oil model estimated for 27 countries/regions over the 1979Q2-2019Q4 period. Not only does this approach include how shocks affect directly exposed countries ...
Read More
This paper primarily focuses on the global macroeconomic consequence, which are the result of country-specific oil supply shocks using the GVAR-Oil model estimated for 27 countries/regions over the 1979Q2-2019Q4 period. Not only does this approach include how shocks affect directly exposed countries but it also indicates the indirect results of shocks thanks to secondary or tertiary channels. Given the importance of Saudi Arabia and Iran in the world’s oil supply, adopting this model facilitates the way in which oil supply shocks are examined in the country-specific context. Therefore, the results indicate different disruptions depending on which country is subject to the shock. In fact, this study shows that a negative shock to oil supply in Iran has relatively insignificant effects on the global economy compared with those of Saudi Arabia since it can be neutralized by the increase in Saudi Arabia oil production. A negative shock to the oil supply in Saudi Arabia, however, results in an increase in oil prices, which adversely affects GDP and financial market in general. In addition, this approach provides policymakers with more opportunities to cope with consequences, which are the result of Covid-19, sanctions, and war, for instance, in a wider range of countries as representatives of the global economy, and thus help them to make better strategic decisions.
Public Economics
Rezgar Feizi; Sahar Amidi; Khaled Ahmadzadeh; Bakhtiar Javaheri
Abstract
The exchange rate and international oil price are key variables to cause the effects of external shock on economics and the relationship to domestic economy. Since in countries like Iran, most government revenues come from exchange earnings from the international markets by oil exports, the impact of ...
Read More
The exchange rate and international oil price are key variables to cause the effects of external shock on economics and the relationship to domestic economy. Since in countries like Iran, most government revenues come from exchange earnings from the international markets by oil exports, the impact of these two variables on the economy has significant consequences. In addition, it should be considered how fluctuations in the exchange rate and international oil prices can impact policy and international relations. According to the international trade perspective, it is believed that the exchange rate affects the economy through the changes in exports and imports commodities; therefore, expectations of the exchange rate will affect the price of the products traded. Moreover, the impact of oil price on the production of commodities changes the level of supply for activities and income of institutions through changes in the production factors and intermediary imports price. We conclude that if any change in both exchange rate and oil prices occurs, it will cause a change in welfare indicators. This research has therefore arisen to fill this void in the literature. Moreover, it utilizes a logistic model to represent the change in the exchange rate and oil price. Based on empirical results, a recursive computable general equilibrium model is constructed to predict future social welfare and simulate the impact of exchange rate fluctuations along with the oil price shock. The results are presented in different scenarios using the 2011 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM).
Ebrahim Zare; Mehrzad Ebrahimi; Abbas Aminifard; Hashem Zare
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between government size and happiness inequality in a number of developing and developed countries during the period of 2002-2015 by threshold panel approach. To obtain robust results, we have applied the model in the Iran’s economy by time ...
Read More
The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between government size and happiness inequality in a number of developing and developed countries during the period of 2002-2015 by threshold panel approach. To obtain robust results, we have applied the model in the Iran’s economy by time series data during the period of 1974-2016. The results in developing countries showed that in small governments, the government size had a diminutive effect on the inequality of happiness, but by passing the threshold and increasing the government's involvement in the economy, this variable had no significant effect on the happiness inequality. The same time series results were obtained for Iran’s economy, which has a small government size. In this group, the government size has a significant negative impact on happiness inequality and after that, it has a significant positive impact on happiness inequality. Developed countries showed completely different results, whereby the size of the government had a significant positive impact on inequality in small governments but in large governments, it did not have a significant effect on the inequality of happiness.
Public Economics
Shahryar Zaroki; Mastaneh Yadollahi Otaghsara
Abstract
This study investigates the effects of real minimum wage on informal employment in rural and urban areas of provinces of Iran between 2005 and 2018. For this aim, by applying microdata on the income-expenditure plan of urban and rural households and with the aid of the minimum wage index, the ratio of ...
Read More
This study investigates the effects of real minimum wage on informal employment in rural and urban areas of provinces of Iran between 2005 and 2018. For this aim, by applying microdata on the income-expenditure plan of urban and rural households and with the aid of the minimum wage index, the ratio of informal employment to total employment was calculated. Preliminary data analysis shows that one-third of urban employees and more than half of rural employees are engaged in informal occupations during this period. Then, the research model was estimated using the panel data method. Estimating the random effects model shows that the real minimum wage and tax burden positively affect informal employment in urban areas. In rural areas, the estimation using the Fixed effects method (and FGLS estimator) shows that real minimum wage, tax burden, and Gini coefficient positively affect informal employment. Furthermore, the interactive effect coefficient of real minimum wage considering the unemployment rate illustrates that in urban areas, the increase of unemployment rate increases the positive effect of real minimum wage. In rural areas, the increasing unemployment rate reduces the positive effect of the real minimum wage
International Economics
Golnaz Hadian; Sara Ghobadi; Majid Sameti
Abstract
In the last two decades, some economists have provided a model for obtaining the optimal tax rate to maximize economic growth. Aiming to contribute to these studies, this work presents a new approach for the determination of the optimal tax rate based on a stochastic metafrontier analysis. To this end, ...
Read More
In the last two decades, some economists have provided a model for obtaining the optimal tax rate to maximize economic growth. Aiming to contribute to these studies, this work presents a new approach for the determination of the optimal tax rate based on a stochastic metafrontier analysis. To this end, the meta technical efficiency (MTE), group’s technical efficiency (TE), technology gap ratio (TGR), and optimal tax rate (OTR) were determined for the period 1996-2018 in a selection of member countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (Group A), lower-middle-income (Group B) and upper-middle-income (Group C). It was found that Group A has the maximum average values of MTE, TE, and TGR, while most countries in Group B have the minimum average MTE. The results demonstrated that Russia enjoys the highest average values of MTE, TE, and TGR, and can be considered as the reference for the countries in Group C. Finally, it was concluded that with 90% statistical confidence, the average real tax rates in Iran and Kuwait are less than the balanced budget OTR during the studied period. The emphasis on increasing tax rates to maximize economic growth and the improvement in the efficiency of these governments seems necessary.
Monetary economics
Esmaeil Jafarimehr; bahram sahabi; Hassan Heydari
Abstract
Recent financial literature argues that there are gender differences between men and women, impacting financial decision making and performance. This paper, using data related to micro-loans of an Iranian private (commercial) bank between 2012 and 2018, investigates the effects of the characteristics ...
Read More
Recent financial literature argues that there are gender differences between men and women, impacting financial decision making and performance. This paper, using data related to micro-loans of an Iranian private (commercial) bank between 2012 and 2018, investigates the effects of the characteristics of the members of the branch credit committees (BCCs), especially gender, on loan quality. Because, the dependent variable (loan quality) is a discrete ordinal variable and based on the Brant test’s result the proportional odds assumption was violated, the generalized ordinal logit model was used. The results of this paper show that increasing the presence of women in BCC improves the quality of micro-lending. Based on the literature and related studies, a potential explanation for these results is that increasing the number of women in the BCC improves the compliance of the decision-making and lending processes with the credit guidelines and recommendations, increases the BCC risk aversion, and reduces the agency problem by improving monitoring in the BCC. Moreover, the results also show that the quality of micro-lending management by BCCs with a higher average age is poorer than that of a younger BCC, and the higher education of the BCC members improves micro-lending quality.
International Economics
Mahdi Hemmati; Ebrahim Hadian; Ali Hussein Samadi; Ahmad Sadraei Javaheri
Abstract
Exchange rate misalignment has involved many world countries. It has profoundly affected the internal and external sectors of the economy. Hence, disclosing the emergence and formation causes of the misalignments is a requisite. Studies on the Iranian economy have mostly evaluated the sanctions’ ...
Read More
Exchange rate misalignment has involved many world countries. It has profoundly affected the internal and external sectors of the economy. Hence, disclosing the emergence and formation causes of the misalignments is a requisite. Studies on the Iranian economy have mostly evaluated the sanctions’ efficacy on macroeconomic variables, involving the economic growth, domestic production, liquidity, exports, imports, oil price, oil revenues, etc. Few studies have evaluated the sanctions’ impact on the foreign exchange market. There is no research work assessing the sanctions’ impact on exchange rate misalignment in Iran. The main purpose of this paper is to estimate the impact of economic sanctions on real effective exchange rate (REER) misalignment in the context of the Iranian economy during the period 1996:1 - 2019:4. In doing so, at first we apply the model designed by Edwards (1989) and Cottani et al. (1990) and using smooth transition regression (STR) to estimate the REER equilibrium and its misalignment. Moreover, factor analysis is used to estimate the sanction indices. Then to analyze the impact of economic sanctions on the REER misalignment a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model is employed.The time path of estimated REER misalignment indicates a lot of volatilities during the period of study. The estimated results also show that sanctions significantly affect these volatilities in the short run and long run and thereby increase REER disequilibrium in the Iranian economy.
Monetary economics
Abdulhamid Khosravi; Hossein Marzban; Jaafar Ghaderi; Parviz Rostamzadeh
Abstract
In this study, we design a structural macro model for Iran economy in which there is a dual exchange rate regime, namely, official (fixed) and unofficial (floated) rates. The official rate determined by the central bank whereas unofficial rate set in the free market. The structural parameters of the ...
Read More
In this study, we design a structural macro model for Iran economy in which there is a dual exchange rate regime, namely, official (fixed) and unofficial (floated) rates. The official rate determined by the central bank whereas unofficial rate set in the free market. The structural parameters of the designed model is estimated using quarterly data in the 1991- 2019 period, and Bayesian method. The main finding of this paper is that establishing a dual exchange rate regime cannot prevent the negative effects of exchange rate dynamics on macro variables. Therefore, it is better to abandon this strategy and instead, central bank put forward optimal respond to exchange rate dynamics. To do this, we derive an optimal policy rule for the central bank and show that the best policy is assigning equal weights to inflation rate and exchange rate in loss function and an active respond to both inflation rate and exchange rate in the policy rule.
Kiomars Sohaili; Alireza Erfani; Yousef Hayati
Abstract
Exchange rate fluctuations have a major role on business cycles. Due to this degree of importance, this paper analyzed the effects of managed floating exchange rate regime on dynamics of some macroeconomics variables of Iran. To do this, we design a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model ...
Read More
Exchange rate fluctuations have a major role on business cycles. Due to this degree of importance, this paper analyzed the effects of managed floating exchange rate regime on dynamics of some macroeconomics variables of Iran. To do this, we design a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for Iran and then using quarterly data over 1989-2016 and Bayesian method, the structural parameters of the model have been estimated. By employing conditional forecasting, our results show that managed floating exchange rate regime, compared with fixed regime, brings more economic growth and at the same time, less speculative activities in money and exchange markets. Moreover, the results from variance decomposition reveal that exchange rate shocks are the most important shock in deriving business cycles and fluctuations of other variables. Based on these finding, we propose policymaker to choose managed floating exchange rate regime as its policy rule.
Public Economics
Fatemeh Etemedmoghaddam; Majid Sameti; Sara Ghobadi; Mansour Mahinizadeh
Abstract
In an effort to achieve economic growth and development, to eliminate or minimize the traditional barriers of trade, trade facilitation (TF), and increase international trade, free trade zones in Iran were founded. In this regard, part of the solution to increasing countries' international trade is provided ...
Read More
In an effort to achieve economic growth and development, to eliminate or minimize the traditional barriers of trade, trade facilitation (TF), and increase international trade, free trade zones in Iran were founded. In this regard, part of the solution to increasing countries' international trade is provided by Public- Private Partnerships. Since trade facilitation includes a relationship between the Public and Private sectors, this type of partnership is especially important in trade facilitation. The purpose of this research is to evaluate the relationship of the factors that have the greatest impact on TF-oriented PPPs in the free zones and these factors derive from the theory of PPPs. Qualitative data was collected focusing on private, public, and academic sector professionals involved in free zones and trade by a researcher-made questionnaire. The Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) strategy was utilized to look at the model and test the research hypotheses. Of the 5-hypothesis proposed by this study, four hypotheses were confirmed and one was rejected. The results have shown that the variables of private sector abilities, the micro-environment factors, and the macro-environment factors, in that arrange, have the foremost impact on TF-oriented PPPs and TF-oriented PPPs have a strong relationship to trade facilitation. Therefore, the use of TF-oriented PPPs in free zones can have a positive effect on trade facilitation, and the development of TF dimensions will also lead to trade facilitation in Iran's free zones.
Fereshteh Vaezi; seyed jafar sadjadi; Ahmad Makui
Abstract
One of the most important problems in portfolio selection models is the ability to provide the optimal number of each share. Therefore, in some cases, it interferes with portfolio optimization in converting the desired weight per share to the desired number per share, unless the results are an integer. ...
Read More
One of the most important problems in portfolio selection models is the ability to provide the optimal number of each share. Therefore, in some cases, it interferes with portfolio optimization in converting the desired weight per share to the desired number per share, unless the results are an integer. Moreover, by applying the appropriate strategy, it seems possible to discover the optimal stock allocation for significant cases with comparatively large stock value. In this regard, this study presents a multi- objective portfolio selection model considering cardinality, quantity and budget constraints based on a new improved knapsack problem. Value-at-Risk (VaR) is considered as the second objective function of risk assessment in the knapsack-based portfolio selection model. We consider parametric (variance- covariance matrix) and non-parametric (historical) approaches to measure VaR. The study also uses the best GARCH family models to estimate the conditional volatility of return in the variancecovariance matrix, which is based on measuring and comparing different criteria under various types of GARCH family models. Finally, a Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA II) is planned to solve the problem. An actual portfolio of the Iran stock market is solved to demonstrate the application of the suggested model.
