International Economics
Zahra Aghili; Reza Akbarian; Ahmad Sadraei Javaheri; parviz Rostamzadeh
Abstract
In recent years, given the significance of the financial sector and its interdependence with other sectors, especially the international trade sector, this industry’s academics and planners have examined the impact of financial development on commerce and trade integration. Therefore, in the present ...
Read More
In recent years, given the significance of the financial sector and its interdependence with other sectors, especially the international trade sector, this industry’s academics and planners have examined the impact of financial development on commerce and trade integration. Therefore, in the present study, using the data of 12 selected countries that are members of the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO), Eurasia, and D8 during the period 1996-2020, and utilizing the augmented gravity model, the effect of a variety of financial tools, such as financial liberalization (FL) and open market operation (OMO), was discussed as a financial development to create trade integration between Iran and the selected countries. The results reveal that the index of financial liberalization has a positive and statistically significant impact on the degree of trade integration of the examined countries. In addition, the elasticity of trade integration is +0.01 than the OMO index. Another independent variable that has a positive effect on trade integration degree is economic size. Income convergence, population, the real exchange rate, and geographical distance have negative significant effects on trade integration in the countries under study. In order to establish the development plans of trade and financial sectors, the findings of this study may be of interest to policymakers and planners in ECO, Eurasia, and D8 nations, especially Iran; because the formation, growth, and strengthening of regional arrangements can offer a foundation for the entry of the region’s countries into the global economy and shield them from globalization’s challenges.
Other
Azam Jalaei; Nematollah Akbari; Bbabak Saffari
Abstract
One of the important tools to increase supply chain productivity and reduce logistics costs is to establish logistics hubs. Since there is no logistics hub in the central region of Iran, this study was conducted to identify a suitable area for a logistics hub in Isfahan province. In this line, criteria ...
Read More
One of the important tools to increase supply chain productivity and reduce logistics costs is to establish logistics hubs. Since there is no logistics hub in the central region of Iran, this study was conducted to identify a suitable area for a logistics hub in Isfahan province. In this line, criteria influencing the location of the logistics centers in terms of certain limiters (geological and environmental factors) and cost influencer (measurable factors with quantitative values (compensation criteria)) criteria were identified, and then, the process of locating was implemented in two separate phases. In the first phase, geographical boundaries associated with limiters criteria were excluded from the study scope to identify the potential site options for a logistics hub within the province. In the second phase, the mathematical modeling approach was used to model the total cost of the logistics network. Next, the cost of establishing a logistics hub was calculated in possible sites in terms of cost influencer criteria and using geographic data layers. The findings revealed that the optimum location is in the central part of the province, where all the economic activities are concentrated. Still, rail and road infrastructures and industries are the most influencers in the optimum location.
Other
Salah Salimian; kiumars shahbazi; Jalil Badpeyma; Naeimeh Hozouri
Abstract
Appropriate decision-making in the firm’s location choice can play a crucial role in improving the competitiveness and profitability of the firms. The basic presumption of most existing location studies is the assumption of uniform distribution, which is less common in the real world. In contrast, ...
Read More
Appropriate decision-making in the firm’s location choice can play a crucial role in improving the competitiveness and profitability of the firms. The basic presumption of most existing location studies is the assumption of uniform distribution, which is less common in the real world. In contrast, the distribution of consumers may be in the form of a triangle in which consumers gather in the city center. On the other hand, the type of consumers in terms of experienced and inexperienced consumers can also play an effective role in the demand for firm products. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the Hotelling location model with the assumption of a triangular distribution of consumers and experienced and inexperienced consumer types. In this study, optimal location has been analyzed assuming two types of experienced and inexperienced consumers, distributed with a triangular distribution density function. The results indicate that the demand functions of two firms depend on the acquired desirability of a particular type of food and the number of experienced consumers. The unit Nash equilibrium costs are increasing compared to transportation costs. In addition, with an increase in transportation costs, firm 1 approaches the center, and firm 2 gets away from it. Furthermore, if two firms are located at the same point, they do not demand uniform equilibrium prices, and the price of each firm is more sensitive to the location of the other first than its location.
Mehdi Mohammadi; Zahra Nouraie Salek; Ghasem Salimi; Jafar Jahani
Abstract
The current skills of leaders will not be enough to succeed in future. Future leaders should be equipped with new literacies. This study intend to generate the new pattern of the new leadership literacies of senior managers of economic areas.The method of research was qualitative content analysis and ...
Read More
The current skills of leaders will not be enough to succeed in future. Future leaders should be equipped with new literacies. This study intend to generate the new pattern of the new leadership literacies of senior managers of economic areas.The method of research was qualitative content analysis and reference data of research included the books of Hames (2007) and Johansen (2017), which were completely studied. Unit of analysis was theme. The study findings included 184 basic themes in the top ten themes of literacy organizers: 1.’Networked Intelligence’: Adaptation through learning; 2.‘Futuring’: to cope better with complexity; 3.’Strategic Navigation’: helping to assure the long-term viability of the whole system; 4.’Deep Design’: continuous consciousness; 5.’Brand Resonance’: Viral forms of communication; 6.’Looking Backward from the Future’: Clarity; 7.’Voluntary Fear Engagement’: turning fear into something positive; 8.‘Leadership for Shape-Shifting Organizations’: liquid leadership; 9.’Being There When You’re Not There’: very skilled at choosing the best media for communicating, and 10.’Creating and Sustaining Positive Energy’: balancing their own personal energy. In the new era, administrators equipped with new literacies, would help them develop the organization, their subordinates, and respond to the environment and gain competitive advantage.
Other
Siavash Jani; Vahid Nikpey
Abstract
One of the most influential factors in the tourism boom is the security of tourism destinations as well as the security of the adjacent regions of the destinations. Thus in this study, the impact of security on tourism attraction among the Iranian provinces is studied due to the regional spillover effect. ...
Read More
One of the most influential factors in the tourism boom is the security of tourism destinations as well as the security of the adjacent regions of the destinations. Thus in this study, the impact of security on tourism attraction among the Iranian provinces is studied due to the regional spillover effect. Security index derived from the combination of several variables such as data on murder, suspicious deaths, quarrels, conflicts, sedition, hooliganism, and suicides divided by provinces and based on the Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Spatial diagnosis tests are done and positive spatial dependency is confirmed among the regions and then the model is estimated in the form of dynamic spatial panel data by spatial Durbin for the period 2011-2017. The results show that an insecurity increase causes a decrease in the number of tourists in a tourist destination and the adjacent regions (spatial spillover effect). While the insecurity index spatial effect is more than its direct effect which means that insecurity variations in a province decrease the number of tourists in adjacent regions more than the number of tourists of that province. Also due to the results, not only insecurity but also the number of specialists, the number of cultural centers, and the information and communication technology index have the most effect on attracting tourists.index spatial effect is more than its direct effect which means that insecurity variations in a province decrease the number of the tourists of adjacent regions more than the number of the tourists of that province.
International Economics
Anvar Khosravi; Saeed Daei-Karimzadeh; Behrooz Shahmoradi; Heirsh Soltanpanah
Abstract
Achieving sustainable development in the future requires investing in productive capabilities that lead to export diversification. Given the importance of the chemical industry as a strategic industry around the world, especially in Iran, and its effect on upstream and downstream industries, determining ...
Read More
Achieving sustainable development in the future requires investing in productive capabilities that lead to export diversification. Given the importance of the chemical industry as a strategic industry around the world, especially in Iran, and its effect on upstream and downstream industries, determining the optimal export diversification strategy in this sector is critical. In this regard, the theory of economic complexity will be used as a basis for identifying high-potential opportunities for export diversity and the theory of product space will be applied which is a powerful tool for identifying strategies. Using export data of chemical products (2014-2018) in 128 countries, we drew product space for Iran. Based on revealed comparative advantages of more than one, results for Iran show that out of 921 six-digit chemical products of the harmonized system, 295 product codes has potential to be activated. Subsequently, by adding two new constraints to the model, potentially activate products were reduced to 145 products. Next, by implementing five strategies: random, greedy, high degree, low degree and majority on Iran's chemical products network, an integration of greedy and majority strategies has been shown to minimize network activation time. Finally, by merging these two strategies, the optimal strategy was identified, and 145 products were prioritized in order to improve export diversity.
Total authors
Abstract
سرمایهگذاری مستقیم خارجی (FDI) به عنوان بخش جداییناپذیر از یک نظام اقتصادی باز و موثر بین المللی و عاملی کلیدی برای رشد و توسعه بین کشورها محسوب میشود. ایران به دلیل ...
Read More
سرمایهگذاری مستقیم خارجی (FDI) به عنوان بخش جداییناپذیر از یک نظام اقتصادی باز و موثر بین المللی و عاملی کلیدی برای رشد و توسعه بین کشورها محسوب میشود. ایران به دلیل برخورداری از منابع عظیم نفت و گاز و همچنین بازارهای نسبتاً بزرگ، پتانسیل بالایی برای جذب سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی به مراتب بیشتر از عملکرد خود دارد. این در حالی است که اعمال تحریمهای مختلف بر کشور در سالهای اخیر با ایجاد فضای روانی خصمانه و ریسک بالای فعالیتهای اقتصادی منجر به کاهش سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی شده است.در این مقاله قصد داریم با استفاده از روش کنترل ترکیبی (SCM) به بررسی تاثیرات گسترده تحریمهای اقتصادی اعمال شده توسط ایالات متحده بر FDI ایران بین سالهای 1980 تا 2020 بپردازیم. ما از طریق SCM تفاوت FDI را بین کشور تحت درمان (ایران) و ترکیبی (ایران ترکیبی) تخمین میزنیم.نتایج نشان میدهد که تحریمها منجر به کاهش تقریبا 12 میلیارد دلاری سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی در مقایسه با وضعیت بدون تحریم شده است. به دنبال تشدید تحریمها در دولت ترامپ و خروج ایالات متحده از برجام، اثرات منفی کاهشFDI به اوج خود یعنی 20 میلیارد دلار در سال 2020 رسیده است. علاوه بر این، آزمونهای دارونما نشان میدهند که نتایج از نظر آماری در سطح 10٪ معنادار هستند.
Persian Abstracts Persian Abstracts
Abstract
Persian Abstracts
Read More
Persian Abstracts
Persian Abstracts Persian Abstracts
Abstract
Persian Abstracts
Read More
Persian Abstracts
LPersian Abstracts Persian Abstracts
Abstract
Persian Abstracts
Read More
Persian Abstracts
Energy Economics
Seyyed Mohammad Reza Aghaei Marzebali; Abdollah Arasteh
Abstract
Many nations’ quick development and progress during the last century may be directly attributed to the widespread use of fossil fuels. Particularly, oil has stood out as a defining feature of human civilization. However, the increasing use of fossil fuels like oil and coal has led to serious problems ...
Read More
Many nations’ quick development and progress during the last century may be directly attributed to the widespread use of fossil fuels. Particularly, oil has stood out as a defining feature of human civilization. However, the increasing use of fossil fuels like oil and coal has led to serious problems for the world’s ecosystems, national security, and economic prosperity. This article uses actual options to determine the best time to invest in renewable energy based on diesel price volatility, electricity price volatility, and oil consumption externalities. Different actual choice approaches for discretion assessment are addressed and compared, as well as the usage of devolution for decision making. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations are used to compare these techniques to conventional approaches. The findings show that investments in renewable energy have a positive net present value. The timelessness of investing choices is emphasized by the real options method. Under the present energy system in Iran, switching to renewable energy sources is preferable than maintaining reliance on oil to provide power. Switching to renewable energy sources can help Iran reduce its reliance on oil and promote sustainable economic growth. Furthermore, can help to address the negative externalities associated with fossil fuel use, such as air pollution and climate change. Therefore, it is essential to continue to evaluate and promote the development of renewable energy sources in Iran and around the world. By increasing the cost of using oil or reducing the cost of electricity, policies should encourage investment in renewable energy sources.
Econometrics
Pegah Mahdavi; Mohammad Ali Ehsani
Abstract
The understanding of applied modeling in causal effects is of particular importance in econometrics, according to recent developments and research in causal inference applications. We also provide an outline of econometrics’ use of causal inference. The majority of economists would agree that the ...
Read More
The understanding of applied modeling in causal effects is of particular importance in econometrics, according to recent developments and research in causal inference applications. We also provide an outline of econometrics’ use of causal inference. The majority of economists would agree that the randomized controlled experiment is the gold standard for drawing conclusions, but actually, a significant portion of empirical work in econometrics relies on observational data, where, among other things, the possibility of confounding or loss of exogeneity must be taken into account. We focus in particular on two types of contemporary research: randomized experiments and observational studies. Our review of the dynamic causality study approach, the linear method, which includes LP and VAR, and nonlinear statistical modeling which includes BART, and their use in econometrics, are all reviewed in this paper. Modeling dynamic systems with linear parametric models usually suffer limitation which affects forecasting performance and policy implications. On the nonparametric framework, BART specifications can produce more precise tail forecasts than the VAR structure. Finally, BART has the lowest RMSE in linear and non-linear data generation processes, and also the performance of BART important variables in a set of macroeconomic data has an optimal performance than other regression estimators.
International Economics
Saeed Iranmanesh; Reza Etesami; reza Ashraf gangoei
Abstract
Western countries have always imposed diverse and extensive sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran by the United States of America, the European Union and the United Nations Security Council since the beginning of the revolution for different reasons. Foreign balance payments are one of the main ...
Read More
Western countries have always imposed diverse and extensive sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran by the United States of America, the European Union and the United Nations Security Council since the beginning of the revolution for different reasons. Foreign balance payments are one of the main sectors that are affected by these sanctions. The purpose of this article is to examine the effects and consequences of sanctions on Iran's foreign balance of payments. In order to study this goal, the foreign trade pattern of the Islamic Republic of Iran was simulated using the dynamic systems approach. To quantify the economic effects of sanctions, the opinions of 15 economics experts on sanctions were collected in the form of fuzzy questionnaires, and using the fuzzy logic method, the variable index of sanctions was obtained. The period of this research is 1979-2021. By imposing economic sanctions on the foreign trade model in the form of 4 scenarios, different dimensions of economic sanctions were examined. The results indicate that the sanctions imposed on the Iran through the export channel have posed the greatest risks to the foreign balance of Iran. Accordingly, serious attention to the development of exports in Iran is an important principle in order to reduce the risks of economic sanctions. In addition, the economic consequences of sanctions can be reduced by using trade agreements and selecting strategic partners among countries in the region.
