International Economics
Saeed Iranmanesh; Reza Etesami; reza Ashraf gangoei
Abstract
Western countries have always imposed diverse and extensive sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran by the United States of America, the European Union and the United Nations Security Council since the beginning of the revolution for different reasons. Foreign balance payments are one of the main ...
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Western countries have always imposed diverse and extensive sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran by the United States of America, the European Union and the United Nations Security Council since the beginning of the revolution for different reasons. Foreign balance payments are one of the main sectors that are affected by these sanctions. The purpose of this article is to examine the effects and consequences of sanctions on Iran's foreign balance of payments. In order to study this goal, the foreign trade pattern of the Islamic Republic of Iran was simulated using the dynamic systems approach. To quantify the economic effects of sanctions, the opinions of 15 economics experts on sanctions were collected in the form of fuzzy questionnaires, and using the fuzzy logic method, the variable index of sanctions was obtained. The period of this research is 1979-2021. By imposing economic sanctions on the foreign trade model in the form of 4 scenarios, different dimensions of economic sanctions were examined. The results indicate that the sanctions imposed on the Iran through the export channel have posed the greatest risks to the foreign balance of Iran. Accordingly, serious attention to the development of exports in Iran is an important principle in order to reduce the risks of economic sanctions. In addition, the economic consequences of sanctions can be reduced by using trade agreements and selecting strategic partners among countries in the region.
