Econometrics
Tofigh Beigi; Ahmad Sadraei Javaheri; Ali Hussein Samadi; Ebrahim Hadian
Abstract
Uncertainty is a controversial issue in the philosophy and methodology of economics. Since economic uncertainty is not directly observable, quantifying it is confronted with significant complexities. A common method in this context involves computing the proxy of uncertainty using time series models. ...
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Uncertainty is a controversial issue in the philosophy and methodology of economics. Since economic uncertainty is not directly observable, quantifying it is confronted with significant complexities. A common method in this context involves computing the proxy of uncertainty using time series models. Within this framework, the conditional volatility of the unforecastable components of time series is considered as an uncertainty measure. In this regard, the basic forecasting model should be specified in a way that its forecast errors lack any predictable content. In previous studies, the focus has solely been on economic and financial variables in computing the uncertainty measure, while the role of institutional factors has been neglected in the forecasting model. Meanwhile, based on economic literature, institutions play an important role in controlling and reducing uncertainty. Therefore, in the present study, the economic uncertainty measure is extracted based on a Large-dimensional dynamic factor model, employing a set of 72 macroeconomic and institutional time series for the Iranian economy. The results indicate that overlooking institutional factors in the forecasting model can lead to an overestimation of economic uncertainty. Our perspective enhances the accuracy of uncertainty measurement and provides a more comprehensive understanding of the determinant factors of economic uncertainty.
International Economics
Zahra Aghili; Reza Akbarian; Ahmad Sadraei Javaheri; parviz Rostamzadeh
Abstract
In recent years, given the significance of the financial sector and its interdependence with other sectors, especially the international trade sector, this industry’s academics and planners have examined the impact of financial development on commerce and trade integration. Therefore, in the present ...
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In recent years, given the significance of the financial sector and its interdependence with other sectors, especially the international trade sector, this industry’s academics and planners have examined the impact of financial development on commerce and trade integration. Therefore, in the present study, using the data of 12 selected countries that are members of the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO), Eurasia, and D8 during the period 1996-2020, and utilizing the augmented gravity model, the effect of a variety of financial tools, such as financial liberalization (FL) and open market operation (OMO), was discussed as a financial development to create trade integration between Iran and the selected countries. The results reveal that the index of financial liberalization has a positive and statistically significant impact on the degree of trade integration of the examined countries. In addition, the elasticity of trade integration is +0.01 than the OMO index. Another independent variable that has a positive effect on trade integration degree is economic size. Income convergence, population, the real exchange rate, and geographical distance have negative significant effects on trade integration in the countries under study. In order to establish the development plans of trade and financial sectors, the findings of this study may be of interest to policymakers and planners in ECO, Eurasia, and D8 nations, especially Iran; because the formation, growth, and strengthening of regional arrangements can offer a foundation for the entry of the region’s countries into the global economy and shield them from globalization’s challenges.
Raha Pourahmadi Haghighi; Ebrahim Hadian; Ahmad Sadraei Javaheri; Rouhollah Shahnazi
Abstract
It is obvious that an optimal policy should consider main dimensions of the phenomenon that can affect the transmission mechanism of that policy. In an open economy, it is expected that variables of the foreign sector play important role in its economic behavior. Therefore, it needs that any optimal ...
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It is obvious that an optimal policy should consider main dimensions of the phenomenon that can affect the transmission mechanism of that policy. In an open economy, it is expected that variables of the foreign sector play important role in its economic behavior. Therefore, it needs that any optimal policy in an open economy to design in such a way which involves changes in the foreign sector. Due to this fact, this paper aims at assessing the monetary policy of Central Bank of Iran to find that whether this policy takes a right way or not. To do so, a DSGE model along with MCMC criteria are employed.The main result indicates that the Central Bank decision on monetary policy follows McCallum rule without any respond to exchange rate shocks.
Ahmad Sadraei Javaheri; Ali Hussein Ostadzad
Abstract
This paper aims at estimating the efficiency of hydroelectric power plants (renewable energy resources) and thermal power plant (non-renewable energy resources) in Iranian provinces. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) approaches is applied to estimate the efficiency. The network is modeled as a linear system ...
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This paper aims at estimating the efficiency of hydroelectric power plants (renewable energy resources) and thermal power plant (non-renewable energy resources) in Iranian provinces. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) approaches is applied to estimate the efficiency. The network is modeled as a linear system with multiple inputs and one output. Fuel cost, labor force, operation cost are used as inputs. Electrical energy delivered per year is used in the model as output. The study offers some detailed policies to improve the efficiency of the plants. Mean technical efficiency of hydroelectric power plant in 2011 and 2010 are 62% and 53%, respectively. Mean technical efficiency of thermal power plant in 2011 and 2010 is 82% and 77%, respectively. The results of the study indicate that mean technical efficiency of thermal power plant in 2010 and 2011 is higher than efficiency of hydroelectric power plants.
