, Behavioral Economics
Saeid Tajdini; Mohammad Qezelbash; Mohsen Mehrara; Majid Lotfi Ghahroud; Mohammad Farajnezhad
Abstract
This paper introduces an innovative model of Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), offering a novel perspective on its design and functionalities. It presents an innovative approach to digital currency design, introducing "Export Crypto" as a novel cryptocurrency that diverges from conventional Central ...
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This paper introduces an innovative model of Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), offering a novel perspective on its design and functionalities. It presents an innovative approach to digital currency design, introducing "Export Crypto" as a novel cryptocurrency that diverges from conventional Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) by anchoring its value not to fiat currencies but to intrinsic economic factors and global trade dynamics. In contrast to traditional CBDCs, our model relies on the principles of purchasing power parity (PPP) to establish a more robust and transparent link between the cryptocurrency's value and real economic activities. The core parameters for assessing the value of Export Crypto revolve around equitable trade balances among nations and their respective export volumes. This approach fundamentally deviates from the conventional practice of pegging digital currencies to a country's fiat currency. Our research findings underscore that a cryptocurrency rooted in economic fundamentals can offer a more effective tool for managing the money supply, particularly in regions where traditional CBDCs may not be optimally suited. Furthermore, Export Crypto's design has the potential to foster fair-trade practices and encourage sustainable economic growth by aligning its worth with a nation's economic prowess and its trade interactions on the global stage. This groundbreaking approach to central bank digital currency opens new avenues for enhancing economic stability and promoting equitable international trade relationships.
Energy Economics
Elham Gholampour; Teymour Mohammadi; Asghar Abolhasani hastiani; Mohsen Mehrara
Abstract
This paper primarily focuses on the global macroeconomic consequence, which are the result of country-specific oil supply shocks using the GVAR-Oil model estimated for 27 countries/regions over the 1979Q2-2019Q4 period. Not only does this approach include how shocks affect directly exposed countries ...
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This paper primarily focuses on the global macroeconomic consequence, which are the result of country-specific oil supply shocks using the GVAR-Oil model estimated for 27 countries/regions over the 1979Q2-2019Q4 period. Not only does this approach include how shocks affect directly exposed countries but it also indicates the indirect results of shocks thanks to secondary or tertiary channels. Given the importance of Saudi Arabia and Iran in the world’s oil supply, adopting this model facilitates the way in which oil supply shocks are examined in the country-specific context. Therefore, the results indicate different disruptions depending on which country is subject to the shock. In fact, this study shows that a negative shock to oil supply in Iran has relatively insignificant effects on the global economy compared with those of Saudi Arabia since it can be neutralized by the increase in Saudi Arabia oil production. A negative shock to the oil supply in Saudi Arabia, however, results in an increase in oil prices, which adversely affects GDP and financial market in general. In addition, this approach provides policymakers with more opportunities to cope with consequences, which are the result of Covid-19, sanctions, and war, for instance, in a wider range of countries as representatives of the global economy, and thus help them to make better strategic decisions.
Monetary economics
Ali Afzali; Ali Taiebnia; Mohsen Mehrara
Abstract
Credit is the basis for financing and stimulating investments. However, excess credit can be the source of systemic risks and financial crises. In this paper, using Iran’s credit data from 2000 to 2019, the Basel credit gap was calculated as a recommended indicator for measuring excessive credit. ...
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Credit is the basis for financing and stimulating investments. However, excess credit can be the source of systemic risks and financial crises. In this paper, using Iran’s credit data from 2000 to 2019, the Basel credit gap was calculated as a recommended indicator for measuring excessive credit. We perceive that in the years in which the economy is suffering from currency overvaluation; for example, from 2005 to 2011, excess credit is noticeably visible. Moreover, in periods with a fair exchange rate, for instance, from 2000 to 2004, no excess credit was observed. Using capital buffers is an essential regulatory policy to reduce the risk of excess credit. So, the counter-cyclical capital buffer was calculated for all these periods. We also found that Basel’s credit gap has good power in predicting exchange crises in Iran. It seems that the root cause of excessive credit and foreign currency jumps should be sought in the exchange rate-based stabilization plan in Iran (exchange rate anchor). Nonetheless, policymakers can reduce the probability and severity of crises by strengthening the bank credit sector’s regulatory systems and using the proposed buffers.
