نویسنده
چکیده
هدف این مقاله شناسایی افراد مشمول برنامه هدفمندی یارانه‌ها در ایران با استفاده از الگوی «آزمون تقریب وسع» و «آزمون چندین خط هدف» بر مبنای داده‌های خانوار سال 1387 می‌باشد. بر مبنای یافتههای به‌دست آمده، خط هدف 40%، بالاترین میزان دقت را دارد و براساس آن، با جدا کردن 40 درصد جمعیت با درآمد بالا، می‌توان از طریق پرداخت نقدی برای حدود 70 درصد از فقیرترین خانوارها به خصوص در مناطق روستایی که فقر در آنها شدیدتر از سایر مناطق است، جبران خسارت کرد. با جایگزین کردن برنامه فعلی، که تقریباً همه خانوارها را تحت پوشش پرداخت نقدی قرار داده، با برنامه پیشنهادی فوق می‌توان با بودجه اختصاصی فعلی، مبلغ بیشتری به افراد فقیر پرداخت نمود و یا مخارج دولت برای این برنامه را از طریق حذف 40 درصد خانوارها کاهش داد.
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