نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
چکیده
این مقاله به تحلیل آثار تجارت کالاهای واسطهای بین ایران و چین بر تولید، مصرف، سرمایهگذاری، خالص صادرات، اشتغال، دستمزد نیروی کار و بازده سرمایه ایران میپردازد. این تحلیل با الگوسازی، حل و مقداردهی یک الگوی ادوار تجاری واقعی بینالمللی در دوره 2009-1980 صورت میگیرد. نتایج نشان میدهد که وقتی کشش جانشینی بین کالاهای واسطهای داخلی و وارداتی کمتر است، افزایش سهم کالاهای واسطهای وارداتی ایران از چین با افزایش نوسان متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی ایران همراه است. مقدار افزایش در نوسان متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی ایران به کشش جانشینی بین کالاهای واسطهای داخلی و وارداتی بستگی دارد. وقتی کشش جانشینی بین کالاهای واسطهای داخی و وارداتی کمتر است، افزایش در سهم کالاهای واسطهای وارداتی ایران از چین، منجر به افزایش بیشتری در نوسان متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی میشود. این نتایج نشان میدهد که تجارت کالاهای واسطهای، مسیر مهمی برای انتقال تکانهها بین شرکای تجاری دوجانبه است.
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