Studying the Effects of Non-Oil Exports on Targeted Economic Growth in Iranian 5th Development Plan:A Computable General Equilibrium Approach

Jafari, Somayeh; Bakhshi Dastjerdi, Rasul; Moosavi Mohseni, Reza

doi:10.22099/ijes.2014.3114

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

https://doi.org/10.22099/ijes.2014.3114

Abstract

This paper estimates the effects of increase in Iran’s non-oil exports on its economic growth as well as sectoral outputs, using a single country, comparative static, exogenous policy Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. The paper also investigates the share of tradable sectors in reaching to the targeted growth rate (8%) in 5^th socio-economic development plan. For this purpose, the parameters of the model are calibrated based on Iran’s Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) which carries a snapshot of the Iran’s economy. The model is then used to simulate the impact of increasing the exports uniformly across all sectors by 10, 20, and 30 percent on endogenous variables, including sectoral outputs, and GDP. Results suggest that 2.03% of targeted economic growth rate would be achieved by encouraging a 6% growth in exports. Our founding also indicates that industry and mine sector in Iran, would have more influence on growth than other non-oil sectors.

Keywords

Article Title [Persian]

بررسی اثر صادرات غیر نفتی بر رشد اقتصادی هدف‌گذاری شده در برنامه پنجم توسعه ایران: یک الگوی تعادل عمومی محاسباتی

Authors [Persian]

سمیه جعفری
رسول بخشی دستجردی
رضا موسوی محسنی

Abstract [Persian]

این مقاله به بررسی اثر افزایش صادرات غیر نفتی بر رشد اقتصادی ایران و همچنین تولیدات بخشی، با استفاده از یک تعادل عمومی محاسباتی (CGE) در وضعیت ایستای مقایسه‌ای میپردازد. این مقاله همچنین سهم بخشهای قابل مبادله در رسیدن به نرخ رشد هدف (8٪) در برنامه پنجم توسعه اقتصادی اجتماعی را بررسی میکند. برای این منظور، پارامترهای مدل بر اساس ماتریس حسابداری اجتماعی ایران (SAM) که بیانگر یک تصویر کلی از اقتصاد ایران است محاسبه شدهاند. الگو را می‌توان با افزایش صادرات یکنواخت در تمامی بخش‌ها با نرخ 10، 20، و 30 درصد بر متغیرهای درون زا، از جمله خروجی های بخشی، و تولید ناخالص داخلی شبیه سازی کرد. نتایج بدست آمده نشان میدهد که 2.03٪ از نرخ رشد اقتصادی مورد هدف در برنامه پنجم توسعه را با رشد 6٪ در صادرات میتوان به دست آورد. یافته های تحقیق نشان دهنده این است که بخش صنعت و معدن در ایران، نفوذ بیشتری بر رشد اقتصادی نسبت به سایر بخش های غیر نفتی داراست.

Keywords [Persian]

الگوی تعادل عمومی محاسباتی
ماتریس حسابداری اجتماعی
صادرات
رشد اقتصادی
اقتصاد ایران

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Iranian Journal of Economic Studies

Studying the Effects of Non-Oil Exports on Targeted Economic Growth in Iranian 5th Development Plan:A Computable General Equilibrium Approach

References

References

Volume 3, Issue 1 - Serial Number 1
April 2014
Pages 111-130

Studying the Effects of Non-Oil Exports on Targeted Economic Growth in Iranian 5th Development Plan:A Computable General Equilibrium Approach

References

References

Volume 3, Issue 1 - Serial Number 1April 2014Pages 111-130

Volume 3, Issue 1 - Serial Number 1
April 2014
Pages 111-130