نویسندگان

1 بخش اقتصاد دانشگاه اصفهان

2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد، دانشگاه اصفهان

چکیده

قاعده سیاست پولی از بروز مساله‌ی ناسازگاری زمانی جلوگیری می‌کند. اما قاعده باید تعهد‌آور باشد. تعهد، توانایی یک دولت در الزام آوربودن سیاست در آینده است. اما در تعهد، به انگیزه‌های درونی توجه نمی‌شود. بنابراین، هژمونی که دربردارنده‌ی انگیزه‌های درونی و بیرونی است، به عنوان راه کاری بهتر از تعهد در حل مساله ناسازگاری زمانی پیشنهاد می‌شود. در این مقاله، ماهیت هژمونی بیان و در خصوص بهتر بودن هژمونی از تعهد  استدلال می‌شود. همچنین یک شاخص کمی جهت برآورد هژمونی بسته‌های سیاستی نظارتی بانک مرکزی جمهوری اسلامی ایران طی سال‌های 1388تا 1391، بر اساس منطق فازی ارایه می‌گردد. نتایج گویای آن است که یک سیاست بهینه هژمون بهتر از یک سیاست تعهدآور بهینه است اگر و تنها اگر اثر تعدیل شده‌ی تغییر در انگیزه‌های درون‌زا نسبت به تغییرات رفاهی مثبت گردد. همچنین، نتایج نشان می‌دهد که به منظور هرگونه سیاست ثبات اقتصادی، شاخص هژمونی بانک مرکزی جمهوری اسلامی ایران که ترکیبی از سه شاخص عدالت منطقه‌ای، قوانین دستوری و تنوع فعالیت‌های اقتصادی است باید افزایش یابد.

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