نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 مرکز آمار ایران، تهران، ایران.
2 گروه اقتصاد،دانشگاه الزهرا،تهران، ایران.
3 گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه الزهرا، تهران، ایران.
چکیده
هدف مقاله حاضر بررسی اثر تکانه قیمت نفت بر سیاست های مالی صلاحدیدی در کشورهای عضو اپک طی دوره 2015-1980 می باشد. بدین منظور با استفاده از رویکرد نوین خود بازگشت برداری ساختاری پنل(Panel SVAR) که در پدرونی(2013) مطرح گردیده، به منظور برر سی واکنش های پویای ناهمگن به تکانه های ساختاری ، اثر تکانه قیمت نفت مورد بررسی قرار می گیرد. با توجه به نتایج پژوهش حاضر اثر تکانه نفتی بر سیاست مالی صلاحدیدی در کوتاه مدت مثبت اما در بلند مدت مطابق تئوری بی اثر می باشد. همچنین تکانه نفتی موجب افزایش تورم و مخارج دولت و نیز کاهش رشد اقتصادی مطابق پدیده نفرین منابع در کشورهای عضو اپک می گردد. همچنین در بررسی تجزیه واریانس بیشترین میزان تأثیرگذاری بر تغییرات سیاست های صلاحدیدی را متغیرهای مخارج دولت و رشد اقتصادی دارند. اما اثر سیاست های مالی صلاحدیدی بر رشد اقتصادی در کشورهای عضو اپک بر خلاف تئوری کینزین و مطابق برخی مطالعات صورت پذیرفته منفی می باشد. با توجه به این که سیاست های مالی صلاحدیدی نقش پررنگی در تصمیمات کشورهای مزبور ایفا میکنند، نتایج گواه بر محدودیت اختیارات دولت ها در کشورهای عضو اپک می باشد.
کلیدواژهها
References
Attinasi, M., & Klem, M. A. (2016). The growth impact of discretionary fiscal policy measures. Journal of Macroeconomics, 49, 265–279.
Bank, A. (2011). Effects of discretionary fiscal policy: New empirical evidence for Germany. Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-470, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissens chaftliche nakultät.
Beetsma. R., Giuliodori, M., & Klaassen, F. (2010). The effects of public spending shocks on trade balances and budget deficits in the European Union. Journal of the European Economic Association,6(2-3),414-423.
Beetsma, R. (2008). A survey of the effects of discretionary fiscal policy. Studier I Finans Politik, 2, 1-37.
Boiciuc, I. (2015). The cyclical behavior of fiscal policy in Romania. Procedia Economics and Finance, 32, 286 – 291.
Chalk, N. (2002). Structural balances and all that which indicators to use in assessing fiscal policy. IMF Working Paper, No. 02/101, 1-31, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=879668
El-Anshasy, A., Bradley, A., & Michael, D. (2011). Oil prices and the fiscal policy response in oil-exporting countries. Journal of Policy Modeling, 34, 605-620.
Eltejai, E., & ArbabAfzali, M. (2012). Asymmetric effect of oil revenues on macroeconomic variables in Iran: Application of GARCH and SVAR models. Journal of Economic Development Research, 2(7), 89-110.
Fallahi, F., Asgharpour, H., Motefakerazad, M. A., & Montazeri Shurokhhalali, J. (2012). Influence of inflation on economic growth in Iran: Using slow transmission regression model (STR). Economic Studies and Policies, 8 (18), 47 - 64.
Fatas, A., & Miho, I. (2003). The case for restricting discretionary fiscal rules in the US states. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 90,101-117.
Gali, J., & Perotti, R. (2003). Fiscal policy and monetary integration in Europe. NBER Working Papers 9773, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Goes, C. (2016). Testing Piketty's hypothesis on the drivers of income inequality: Evidence from Panel VARs with heterogeneous dynamics. IMF Working Paper 16/160.
Hoghaberkiani, K., & Moradi, A. (2012). Estimation of potential production and production gap with emphasis on Hodrick-Prescott filter approach for Iran's economy (1367:1 1368:4). Journal of Economic Research, 7, 13, 143 - 168(In Persian).
Komijani, A., & Alavi, M. (1999). The effectiveness of monetary policies on inflation and economic growth in Iran. Journal of Management Studies, 11(4), 17-41.
Larch, M., & Salto, M. (2005). Fiscal rules, inertia, and discretionary fiscal policy, Applied Economics, 37(10), 1135-1146.
Marrewijk, c. v., & Verbeek, j. (1991). Growth, budget deficits, fiscal policies in an overlapping generation's model. Journal of Economics, 53(2), 185-203.
Mohammadi, H., & Baratzadeh, A. (2013). Impact of shocks caused by oil revenues on government expenditures and liquidity in Iran. Iranian Journal of Energy Economics, 2(7), 129-145.
Motevasseli, M., Ebrahimi, I., Shahmoradi, A., & Kajjani, A. (2010). Designing a new generation dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for the Iranian economy as oil exporting country. Economic Research, 10(4), 9-15.
Nilly, M., & Amid, E. (1999). The effect of government fiscal policy on economic growth, proceedings of the 9th conference on monetary and foreign exchange policies. Monetary and Bank Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Pedroni, P. (2013). Structural panel VARs. Econometrics, 2, 180-206.
Rajaee, A. H., & Jalayi, A. (2017). The study of output gap in the Iranian economy using Hodrick-Prescott and Band-Post filtering. Journal of Economics, 3/4, 135-150.
Reis, L. d., Manasse, P., & Panizza, U. (2007). Targeting the structural balance. Research Department Publications 4507, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
Samadi, S., YahyaAbadi, A., & Moallemi, N. (2009). Analysis of the impact of oil prices shocks on macroeconomic variables in Iran. Journal of Research and Economic Policy, 17(52), 26-5.
Samimi, A. (1997). Impact of government deficit on the growth of money and inflation in the Iranian economy (1981:1-1995:4). Master's thesis, Shiraz University.
Seyyedi, M., DaneshJafari, D., Bahrami, J., & Rafei, M. (2015). Providing a framework for optimum use of oil revenues in Iran: Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) approach. Planning, and Budget, 20(2), 21-58.
References
Attinasi, M., & Klem, M. A. (2016). The growth impact of discretionary fiscal policy measures. Journal of Macroeconomics, 49, 265–279.
Bank, A. (2011). Effects of discretionary fiscal policy: New empirical evidence for Germany. Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-470, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissens chaftliche nakultät.
Beetsma. R., Giuliodori, M., & Klaassen, F. (2010). The effects of public spending shocks on trade balances and budget deficits in the European Union. Journal of the European Economic Association,6(2-3),414-423.
Beetsma, R. (2008). A survey of the effects of discretionary fiscal policy. Studier I Finans Politik, 2, 1-37.
Boiciuc, I. (2015). The cyclical behavior of fiscal policy in Romania. Procedia Economics and Finance, 32, 286 – 291.
Chalk, N. (2002). Structural balances and all that which indicators to use in assessing fiscal policy. IMF Working Paper, No. 02/101, 1-31, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=879668
El-Anshasy, A., Bradley, A., & Michael, D. (2011). Oil prices and the fiscal policy response in oil-exporting countries. Journal of Policy Modeling, 34, 605-620.
Eltejai, E., & ArbabAfzali, M. (2012). Asymmetric effect of oil revenues on macroeconomic variables in Iran: Application of GARCH and SVAR models. Journal of Economic Development Research, 2(7), 89-110.
Fallahi, F., Asgharpour, H., Motefakerazad, M. A., & Montazeri Shurokhhalali, J. (2012). Influence of inflation on economic growth in Iran: Using slow transmission regression model (STR). Economic Studies and Policies, 8 (18), 47 - 64.
Fatas, A., & Miho, I. (2003). The case for restricting discretionary fiscal rules in the US states. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 90,101-117.
Gali, J., & Perotti, R. (2003). Fiscal policy and monetary integration in Europe. NBER Working Papers 9773, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Goes, C. (2016). Testing Piketty's hypothesis on the drivers of income inequality: Evidence from Panel VARs with heterogeneous dynamics. IMF Working Paper 16/160.
Hoghaberkiani, K., & Moradi, A. (2012). Estimation of potential production and production gap with emphasis on Hodrick-Prescott filter approach for Iran's economy (1367:1 1368:4). Journal of Economic Research, 7, 13, 143 - 168(In Persian).
Komijani, A., & Alavi, M. (1999). The effectiveness of monetary policies on inflation and economic growth in Iran. Journal of Management Studies, 11(4), 17-41.
Larch, M., & Salto, M. (2005). Fiscal rules, inertia, and discretionary fiscal policy, Applied Economics, 37(10), 1135-1146.
Marrewijk, c. v., & Verbeek, j. (1991). Growth, budget deficits, fiscal policies in an overlapping generation's model. Journal of Economics, 53(2), 185-203.
Mohammadi, H., & Baratzadeh, A. (2013). Impact of shocks caused by oil revenues on government expenditures and liquidity in Iran. Iranian Journal of Energy Economics, 2(7), 129-145.
Motevasseli, M., Ebrahimi, I., Shahmoradi, A., & Kajjani, A. (2010). Designing a new generation dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for the Iranian economy as oil exporting country. Economic Research, 10(4), 9-15.
Nilly, M., & Amid, E. (1999). The effect of government fiscal policy on economic growth, proceedings of the 9th conference on monetary and foreign exchange policies. Monetary and Bank Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Pedroni, P. (2013). Structural panel VARs. Econometrics, 2, 180-206.
Rajaee, A. H., & Jalayi, A. (2017). The study of output gap in the Iranian economy using Hodrick-Prescott and Band-Post filtering. Journal of Economics, 3/4, 135-150.
Reis, L. d., Manasse, P., & Panizza, U. (2007). Targeting the structural balance. Research Department Publications 4507, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
Samadi, S., YahyaAbadi, A., & Moallemi, N. (2009). Analysis of the impact of oil prices shocks on macroeconomic variables in Iran. Journal of Research and Economic Policy, 17(52), 26-5.
Samimi, A. (1997). Impact of government deficit on the growth of money and inflation in the Iranian economy (1981:1-1995:4). Master's thesis, Shiraz University.
Seyyedi, M., DaneshJafari, D., Bahrami, J., & Rafei, M. (2015). Providing a framework for optimum use of oil revenues in Iran: Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) approach. Planning, and Budget, 20(2), 21-58.
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