The Effects of Oil Price Shocks on Discretionary Fiscal Policy in Selected OPEC Countries: Panel Structural Vector Autoregressive

Dindar Rostami, Marzieh; Shirinbakhsh, Shamsollah; Afshari, Zahra

doi:10.22099/ijes.2018.30257.1470

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

¹ statistical center of Iran,Tehran, Iran.

² Faculty of Social and Economic, Alzahra University, Tehran, Iran.

³ Faculty of social and Economic, Alzahra University, Tehran, Iran.

https://doi.org/10.22099/ijes.2018.30257.1470

Abstract

The present study was aimed to investigate the effects of oil price shocks on discretionary fiscal policies in selected OPEC countries during 1980-2015. In this regard, the heterogeneous dynamic reaction to structural shock was examined using Panel Structural Vector Autoregressive (PSVAR) technique. Based on the findings, the effect of oil price shocks on discretionary fiscal policy was positive in short-run but ineffective in long-run.
In addition, the oil price shocks caused an increase in inflation and government expenditure and a decrease in the economic growth in selected OPEC countries according to the Resource Curse phenomenon. Moreover, as variance decomposition showed, the government expenditure and economic growth have the most effect on discretionary policy changes. The effect of discretionary fiscal policy on economic growth in selected OPEC countries was negative, contrary to the Keynesian theory and the results of some other studies. Because discretionary fiscal policies play a major role in decisions of the countries mentioned above, the results also showed that a limitation in the government authority in OPEC countries would come into conflict with the decrease in economic growth and production fluctuation.

Keywords

Article Title [Persian]

اثر تکانه قیمت نفت بر سیاست مالی صلاحدیدی در کشورهای عضو اوپک: رویکرد خود رگرسیون برداری ساختاری پانلی

Authors [Persian]

مرضیه دیندار رستمی ¹
شمس اله شیرین بخش ²
زهرا افشاری ³

¹ مرکز آمار ایران، تهران، ایران.

² گروه اقتصاد،دانشگاه الزهرا،تهران، ایران.

³ گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه الزهرا، تهران، ایران.

Abstract [Persian]

هدف مقاله حاضر بررسی اثر تکانه قیمت نفت بر سیاست های مالی صلاحدیدی در کشورهای عضو اپک طی دوره 2015-1980 می باشد. بدین منظور با استفاده از رویکرد نوین خود بازگشت برداری ساختاری پنل(Panel SVAR) که در پدرونی(2013) مطرح گردیده، به منظور برر سی واکنش های پویای ناهمگن به تکانه های ساختاری ، اثر تکانه قیمت نفت مورد بررسی قرار می گیرد. با توجه به نتایج پژوهش حاضر اثر تکانه نفتی بر سیاست مالی صلاحدیدی در کوتاه مدت مثبت اما در بلند مدت مطابق تئوری بی اثر می باشد. همچنین تکانه نفتی موجب افزایش تورم و مخارج دولت و نیز کاهش رشد اقتصادی مطابق پدیده نفرین منابع در کشورهای عضو اپک می گردد. همچنین در بررسی تجزیه واریانس بیشترین میزان تأثیرگذاری بر تغییرات سیاست های صلاحدیدی را متغیرهای مخارج دولت و رشد اقتصادی دارند. اما اثر سیاست های مالی صلاحدیدی بر رشد اقتصادی در کشورهای عضو اپک بر خلاف تئوری کینزین و مطابق برخی مطالعات صورت پذیرفته منفی می باشد. با توجه به این که سیاست های مالی صلاحدیدی نقش پررنگی در تصمیمات کشورهای مزبور ایفا میکنند، نتایج گواه بر محدودیت اختیارات دولت ها در کشورهای عضو اپک می باشد.

Keywords [Persian]

"رویکردPanel SVAR"
"کشورهای عضو اوپک"
"سیاست مالی صلاحدیدی"

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