نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
بخش اقتصاد، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران.
چکیده
هدف از این مقاله ، بررسی سیاست های بهینه پولی و مالی با تأکید بر خروج غیر تورمی از رکود اقتصادی در ایران است. در مرحله اول ، اقتصاد ایران در قالب یک مدل تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی (NK-DSGE) مدل سازی شده است. پس از مدل سازی و استخراج سیستم معادلات، پارامترهای ساختاری مدل با استفاده از داده های فصلی سال 1989 تا 2016 و همچنین رویکرد بیزی محاسبه شده است. نتایج نشان می دهد که سیاست های انبساطی پولی و مالی هر چند که تولید را افزایش می دهد، اما با تورم همراه هستند. در مرحله دوم ، قواعد پولی و مالی بهینه از یک تابع زیان اجتنماعی استخراج شده است و بر این اساس شرایط خروج غیر تورمی از رکود بررسی شده است. نتایج شبیه سازی نشان می دهد که سیاست پولی بهینه نمی تواند به خودی خود منجر به خروج اقتصاد از رکود بدون ایجاد تورم شود. اما اگر این سیاست به همراه سیاست مالی بهینه اعمال شود ، می توان شاهد خروج غیر تورمی از رکود اقتصادی بود.
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