The Role of Feature Engineering in Prediction of Tehran Stock Exchange Index Based on LSTM

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Department of management, Ershad Damavand University, Tehran branch, Tehran, Iran.

2 Faculty of Economics , Allameh Tabatabaei University, Tehran, Iran.

3 Faculty of Accounting, Management and Economic, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran.

4 School of Computer Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran.

Abstract

In this research, the impact of different preprocessing methods on the Long-Short term memory in predicting the financial time series was examined. At first, the model was implemented on the Tehran stock exchange index by utilizing the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) model on 78 technical indicators. Then, the same model was implemented by the advantage of the random forest to select features rather than the PCA to extract them. In the next step, other technical strategy dummy variables were added to the model to examine the changes in its performance. Finally, two deep learning methods with the advantage of only target lags were deployed to compare the accuracy to the other models. The first deep model was plain but the second one was with the advantage of the Wavelet denoising process. The results of the MSE, MAE, MAPE, and R2 score on unseen test sequences showed that applying the Long Short-Term Memory with its own deep feature extraction procedure and the wavelet’s denoising process leads to the best accuracy in prediction of the Tehran stock exchange index. Finally, the Diebold Mariano test exposed a significant difference between the accuracy of the best model and the rest. This result implied that although the application of deep learning gains accurate results, it can be alleviated by feeding the model with creatively extracted and denoised features.

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References

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Iranian Journal of Economic Studies
Volume 9, Issue 2 - Serial Number 18
December 2020
Pages 527-548

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History

  • Receive Date: 21 February 2021
  • Revise Date: 17 May 2021
  • Accept Date: 16 June 2021

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