Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

Department of Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran.

10.22099/ijes.2022.40911.1759

Abstract

The Earth's temperature has climbed by 0.7 degrees Celsius (°C) during the last 100 years, and the worldwide average temperature is expected to rise between 1.8 and 6.4 degrees °C by 2100. Climate change, particularly rising temperatures, according to IPCC , the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) area will face challenges throughout the twenty-first century. As a result, the study's aims are to evaluate the impact of policies which eliminate or targetize fossil fuel subsidies in order to reduce global warming, as well as the impact of these policies on economic variables (GDP, consumption, capital accumulation, employment, and environmental impact) in the MENA until 2100. For this purpose, a Dynamic Regional Integrated Climate-Economy Model (RICE) is utilized to do this. The findings suggest that in the long run, if no strategy to limit temperature rise is enacted and carbon subsidies persist, the average world temperature would rise by 4.74 degrees °C, while an optimal policy based on fossil fuel taxation will increase the average global temperature by 4.49 °C, and a policy reforming fossil fuel subsidies will increase the average global temperature by 4.24 °C. Generally, carbon tax measures in the MENA area will lower average world temperature increase by 0.5°C compared to other scenarios.

Keywords

Main Subjects

Article Title [Persian]

پیامدهای اقتصادی- زیست‏محیطی اصلاح یارانه ‏های سوخت‏ فسیلی با استفاده از مدل RICE در کشورهای منطقه‏ی خاورمیانه و شمال آفریقا تا افق زمانی 2100

Authors [Persian]

  • مرضیه حق شناس
  • رزیتا مویدفر
  • علیمراد شریفی
  • شکوفه فرهمند

گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران.

Abstract [Persian]

دمای زمین در طول 100 سال گذشته 0.7 درجه سانتیگراد (درجه سانتیگراد) افزایش یافته است و انتظار می‏رود میانگین دمای جهانی تا سال 2100 بین 1.8 تا 6.4 درجه سانتیگراد افزایش یابد. مجمع بین‏دولتی تغییرات آب و هوا (IPCC) پیش‏بینی می‏کند که تغییرات آب و هوا به ویژه افزایش دما باعث ایجاد چالش‏هایی برای منطقه‏ی منا در طول قرن21 خواهد شد.
در نتیجه، هدف این مطالعه ارزیابی تأثیر سیاست‌های حذف یا اصلاح یارانه‌های سوخت‌های فسیلی به منظور کاهش گرمایش جهانی، و همچنین تأثیر اجرای این سیاست‌ها بر متغیرهای اقتصادی (تولیدناخالص‏داخلی، مصرف، انباشت سرمایه، اشتغال و اثرات زیست‏محیطی) در منطقه‏ی منا تا افق زمانی (2100) می‏باشد. برای این منظور از مدل یکپارچه‏ی پویای منطقه‏ای آب و هوایی و اقتصادی (RICE)؛ استفاده شده است. نتایج پژوهش حاکی از آن است که در بلندمدت (تا پایان قرن‏21) اگر هیچ سیاستی برای جلوگیری از افزایش دما اعمال نشود و همچنان اختصاص یارانه بر کربن ادامه داشته باشد، میانگین دمای جهانی تا 74/4 درجه سلسیوس و در صورتی که سیاست حذف یارانه‏های سوخت‏ فسیلی اعمال شود، میانگین دمای جهانی تا 49/4 درجه سلسیوس و در صورت اجرای سیاست اصلاح یارانه‏های سوخت‏ فسیلی (وضع قیمت بر کربن) میانگین دمای جهانی تا 24/4 درجه سلسیوس افزایش خواهد یافت. به طور کلی، وضع مالیات بر کربن در منطقه منا میانگین افزایش دمای جهان را 0.5 درجه سانتیگراد در مقایسه با سایر سناریوها کاهش می دهد.

Keywords [Persian]

  • تغییرات آب و هوا
  • مدل پویای یکپارچه منطقه ای آب و هوا و اقتصاد
  • گرمایش جهانی
  • خاورمیانه و شمال آفریقا
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