نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران.
10.22099/ijes.2022.40911.1759
چکیده
دمای زمین در طول 100 سال گذشته 0.7 درجه سانتیگراد (درجه سانتیگراد) افزایش یافته است و انتظار میرود میانگین دمای جهانی تا سال 2100 بین 1.8 تا 6.4 درجه سانتیگراد افزایش یابد. مجمع بیندولتی تغییرات آب و هوا (IPCC) پیشبینی میکند که تغییرات آب و هوا به ویژه افزایش دما باعث ایجاد چالشهایی برای منطقهی منا در طول قرن21 خواهد شد.
در نتیجه، هدف این مطالعه ارزیابی تأثیر سیاستهای حذف یا اصلاح یارانههای سوختهای فسیلی به منظور کاهش گرمایش جهانی، و همچنین تأثیر اجرای این سیاستها بر متغیرهای اقتصادی (تولیدناخالصداخلی، مصرف، انباشت سرمایه، اشتغال و اثرات زیستمحیطی) در منطقهی منا تا افق زمانی (2100) میباشد. برای این منظور از مدل یکپارچهی پویای منطقهای آب و هوایی و اقتصادی (RICE)؛ استفاده شده است. نتایج پژوهش حاکی از آن است که در بلندمدت (تا پایان قرن21) اگر هیچ سیاستی برای جلوگیری از افزایش دما اعمال نشود و همچنان اختصاص یارانه بر کربن ادامه داشته باشد، میانگین دمای جهانی تا 74/4 درجه سلسیوس و در صورتی که سیاست حذف یارانههای سوخت فسیلی اعمال شود، میانگین دمای جهانی تا 49/4 درجه سلسیوس و در صورت اجرای سیاست اصلاح یارانههای سوخت فسیلی (وضع قیمت بر کربن) میانگین دمای جهانی تا 24/4 درجه سلسیوس افزایش خواهد یافت. به طور کلی، وضع مالیات بر کربن در منطقه منا میانگین افزایش دمای جهان را 0.5 درجه سانتیگراد در مقایسه با سایر سناریوها کاهش می دهد.
کلیدواژهها
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