Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

Department of Economics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad. Iran.

10.22099/ijes.2022.40521.1789

Abstract

Despite the recession in global financial markets, the Tehran stock Exchange experienced significant growth during the COVID-19 outbreak. Therefore, this article tries to solve this puzzle by analyzes the effect of three Coronavirus waves on the total index of Tehran stock Exchange, its sub-indices, and the different industries with daily data of Iran and the regression method with multiple breakpoints. The results show that each wave of COVID-19 have different effects on the stock market. COVID-19 in the first wave had a negative effect on the index of industries such as refined petroleum, chemical, Metals and transportation but had a positive effect on industries such as medicine and food. But in subsequent waves, response of different industries to the new pandemic is complicated for two reasons. First, the nominal exchange rate has positive and significant effect on main industries such as motor mehicles, banks, refined petroleum, metals and chemical (which have a considerable weight in the Tehran Stock Exchange), can show the positive trend of the index, especially in the first and second waves of the COVID-19. Second, the government's manipulatian in raising the stock prices of these main industries to finance its budget deficit caused the Tehran Stock Exchange index to move in the opposite direction in some periods in response to the Corona virus.

Keywords

Main Subjects

Article Title [Persian]

بازدهی بورس سهام ایران در سه موج همه‌گیری کویید-19: شواهدی از رگرسیون با شکست‌های چندگانه

Authors [Persian]

  • علی چشمی
  • فریبا عثمانی

بخش اقتصاد، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران.

Abstract [Persian]

با وجود رکود در بازارهای مالی جهانی، بورس تهران در دوران شیوع کووید-19 رشد قابل توجهی را تجربه کرد. بنابراین، این مقاله با تحلیل تاثیر سه موج کرونا بر شاخص کل بورس اوراق بهادار تهران، زیرشاخص‌های آن و صنایع مختلف با داده‌های روزانه ایران و روش رگرسیون با شکست‌های چندگانه، سعی در حل این معما دارد. نتایج نشان می دهد که هر موج کووید-19 تأثیر متفاوتی بر بازار سهام دارد. کووید 19 در موج اول بر شاخص صنایعی مانند پالایش نفت، شیمیایی، فلزات و حمل و نقل تاثیر منفی داشت اما بر صنایعی مانند دارو و غذا تاثیر مثبت داشت. اما در امواج بعدی، واکنش صنایع مختلف به این همه گیری به دو دلیل پیچیده است. یکی اینکه نرخ اسمی ارز بر صنایع اصلی مانند خودرو، بانک، پالایش نفت، فلزات و پتروشیمی (که وزن قابل توجهی در بورس تهران دارند) اثر مثبت و معناداری دارد، که می تواند روند مثبت شاخص به ویژه در موج اول و دوم کووید-19را نشان دهد. دو، دستکاری دولت در افزایش قیمت سهام این صنایع اصلی به منظور تامین مالی کسری بودجه خود باعث شد تا شاخص بورس تهران در برخی دوره‌ها در واکنش به ویروس کرونا در جهت مخالف حرکت کند.

Keywords [Persian]

  • بازار سهام
  • بورس اوراق بهادار تهران
  • کووید -19
  • ویروس کرونا
  • رگرسیون شکست‌های چندگانه
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