نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
بخش اقتصاد، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران.
10.22099/ijes.2022.40521.1789
چکیده
با وجود رکود در بازارهای مالی جهانی، بورس تهران در دوران شیوع کووید-19 رشد قابل توجهی را تجربه کرد. بنابراین، این مقاله با تحلیل تاثیر سه موج کرونا بر شاخص کل بورس اوراق بهادار تهران، زیرشاخصهای آن و صنایع مختلف با دادههای روزانه ایران و روش رگرسیون با شکستهای چندگانه، سعی در حل این معما دارد. نتایج نشان می دهد که هر موج کووید-19 تأثیر متفاوتی بر بازار سهام دارد. کووید 19 در موج اول بر شاخص صنایعی مانند پالایش نفت، شیمیایی، فلزات و حمل و نقل تاثیر منفی داشت اما بر صنایعی مانند دارو و غذا تاثیر مثبت داشت. اما در امواج بعدی، واکنش صنایع مختلف به این همه گیری به دو دلیل پیچیده است. یکی اینکه نرخ اسمی ارز بر صنایع اصلی مانند خودرو، بانک، پالایش نفت، فلزات و پتروشیمی (که وزن قابل توجهی در بورس تهران دارند) اثر مثبت و معناداری دارد، که می تواند روند مثبت شاخص به ویژه در موج اول و دوم کووید-19را نشان دهد. دو، دستکاری دولت در افزایش قیمت سهام این صنایع اصلی به منظور تامین مالی کسری بودجه خود باعث شد تا شاخص بورس تهران در برخی دورهها در واکنش به ویروس کرونا در جهت مخالف حرکت کند.
کلیدواژهها
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