Document Type : Research Paper


1 Faculty of Economics, Payam-e-Noor University, Iran

2 Urmia University, Urmia, Iran



One of the most influential factors in the tourism boom is the security of tourism destinations as well as the security of the adjacent regions of the destinations. Thus in this study, the impact of security on tourism attraction among the Iranian provinces is studied due to the regional spillover effect. Security index derived from the combination of several variables such as data on murder, suspicious deaths, quarrels, conflicts, sedition, hooliganism, and suicides divided by provinces and based on the Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Spatial diagnosis tests are done and positive spatial dependency is confirmed among the regions and then the model is estimated in the form of dynamic spatial panel data by spatial Durbin for the period 2011-2017. The results show that an insecurity increase causes a decrease in the number of tourists in a tourist destination and the adjacent regions (spatial spillover effect). While the insecurity index spatial effect is more than its direct effect which means that insecurity variations in a province decrease the number of tourists in adjacent regions more than the number of tourists of that province. Also due to the results, not only insecurity but also the number of specialists, the number of cultural centers, and the information and communication technology index have the most effect on attracting tourists.index spatial effect is more than its direct effect which means that insecurity variations in a province decrease the number of the tourists of adjacent regions more than the number of the tourists of that province.


Main Subjects

Article Title [Persian]

بررسی اثرات سرریز فضایی ناامنی بر جذب گردشگر در استان های ایران

Authors [Persian]

  • سیاوش جانی 1
  • وحید نیک پی 2

1 دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه پیام نور، ایران

2 دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران

Abstract [Persian]

یکی از تأثیرگذارترین عوامل در رونق گردشگری، امنیت مقاصد گردشگری و همچنین امنیت مناطق مجاور مقاصد گردشگری است. بر این اساس در این مطالعه تاثیر ناامنی مقاصد گردشگری و مناطق مجاور آنها بر تعداد گردشگر در بین استان های کشور با رویکرد اقتصاد سنجی فضایی مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. شاخص ناامنی در این مطالعه به صورت یک شاخص ترکیبی براساس رویکرد مولفه های اصلی و با استفاده از داده های قتل، نزاع و درگیری، شرارت، زورگیری و باجگیری، چاقو و قمه کشی و خودکشی های استان ها بدست آمده است. همچنین  وابستگی فضایی مثبت بین استان ها براساس نتایج حاصل از آزمون های تشخیصی، مورد تایید قرار گرفته و مدل تحقیق در چارچوب داده­های تابلویی فضایی پویا  براساس تخمین‌زن دوربین فضایی طی دوره 1396-1390 برآورد گردیده است.
نتایج حاصل از برآورد مدل حاکی از آن بود که افزایش ناامنی در یک منطقه علاوه بر اینکه موجب کاهش تعداد گردشگر آن منطقه می‌شود(اثرات مستقیم)  بلکه تعداد گردشگران مناطق مجاور را نیز به طور معنی داری کاهش می دهد (اثرات سرریز فضایی). در ادامه تحلیل نتایج نشان داد که اثرات فضایی شاخص نا امنی بزرگتر از اثرات مستقیم آن است به این معنی که افزایش نا امنی در یک استان بیش از آنکه تعداد گردشگران آن استان را کاهش ‌دهد، موجب کاهش تعداد گردشگران استان‌های مجاور می‌شود. همچنین براساس نتایج بدست آمده علاوه بر ناامنی، تعداد پزشک متخصص، تعداد مراکز فرهنگی و همچنین شاخص فن آوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات به ترتیب بیشترین تاثیر را برجذب گردشگر استان‌ها داشتند

Keywords [Persian]

  • گردشگری
  • اثرات سرریز فضایی
  • امنیت
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