Document Type : Research Paper


Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran



Covid-19 has affected the world’s economy since 2019. The coronavirus pandemic is one of the most severe and dangerous problems that humanity has faced in the last century. Therefore, this paper aims to investigate the impact of Covid-19 on the inflation rate in the 36 OECD member countries. Monthly data on Covid-19 and the inflation rate from February 2020 to August 2021 and the quantile panel regression method have been used to achieve this purpose. The results show that new cases of Covid-19 decrease the inflation rate in all quantiles, which means that by increasing the number of Covid-19 cases, economic activities decrease because of the business restrictions. Moreover, the new deaths of Covid-19 have a dual impact on the inflation rate in OECD countries. With increasing in Covid-19 deaths, business restrictions have increased, the economy has entered a recession, and inflation has decreased. On the other hand, the growth of Covid-19 casualties could increase economic uncertainty and inflation. Furthermore, Covid-19 vaccinations have positive and significant effects on the inflation rate in OECD countries. Accordingly, policymakers are advised to include increasing vaccine injections, especially booster doses, to increase economic activity and prosperity in OECD and world economies. Furthermore, Covid-19 showed the necessity of preparing the world against infectious diseases in the future.


Main Subjects

Article Title [Persian]

کووید-19 و نرخ تورم: مطالعه کشورهای سازمان همکاری و توسعه اقتصادی (OECD)

Authors [Persian]

  • رامین امانی
  • سامان قادری
  • خالد احمدزاده

دانشکده علوم انسانی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه کردستان، سنندج، ایران

Abstract [Persian]

کووید-19 از سال 2019 بر اقتصاد جهان تأثیر گذاشته است. همه‌گیری ویروس کرونا یکی از جدی‌ترین و خطرناک‌ترین معضلاتی است که بشریت در قرن اخیر با آن مواجه بوده است؛ بنابراین، هدف این مقاله بررسی تأثیر کووید-19 بر نرخ تورم در 36 کشور عضو OECD است. برای دستیابی به این هدف از داده‌های ماهانه کووید-19 و نرخ تورم از فوریه 2019 تا آگوست 2021 و روش رگرسیون پانل چندکی استفاده شده است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که موارد جدید کووید-19 باعث کاهش نرخ تورم در همه چندک‌ها می‌شود که به این معنی است که با افزایش تعداد موارد کووید-19، فعالیت‌های اقتصادی به دلیل محدودیت‌های تجاری کاهش می‌یابد. علاوه بر این، مرگ‌ومیرهای جدید کووید-19 تأثیر دوگانه‌ای بر نرخ تورم در کشورهای OECD دارد. با افزایش آمار مرگ‌ومیر ناشی از کووید-19، محدودیت‌های کسب‌وکار افزایش‌یافته و اقتصاد وارد رکود شده و تورم کاهش‌یافته است. از سوی دیگر، رشد تلفات کووید-19 می‌تواند نااطمینانی اقتصادی و تورم را افزایش دهد. علاوه بر این، واکسیناسیون کووید-19 اثرات مثبت و قابل‌توجهی بر نرخ تورم در کشورهای OECD دارد. براین‌اساس، به سیاست‌گذاران توصیه می‌شود برای افزایش فعالیت‌های اقتصادی و افزایش رونق در اقتصاد این کشورها، افزایش تزریق واکسن به‌ویژه دوزهای تقویت‌کننده را در نظر بگیرند. از طرف دیگر، کووید-19 ضرورت آمادگی جهان در برابر بیماری های واگیر در آینده را نشان داد.

Keywords [Persian]

  • کووید-19
  • نرخ تورم
  • کشورهای OECD
  • رگرسیون چندکی
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