Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran
Abstract
Covid-19 has affected the world’s economy since 2019. The coronavirus pandemic is one of the most severe and dangerous problems that humanity has faced in the last century. Therefore, this paper aims to investigate the impact of Covid-19 on the inflation rate in the 36 OECD member countries. Monthly data on Covid-19 and the inflation rate from February 2020 to August 2021 and the quantile panel regression method have been used to achieve this purpose. The results show that new cases of Covid-19 decrease the inflation rate in all quantiles, which means that by increasing the number of Covid-19 cases, economic activities decrease because of the business restrictions. Moreover, the new deaths of Covid-19 have a dual impact on the inflation rate in OECD countries. With increasing in Covid-19 deaths, business restrictions have increased, the economy has entered a recession, and inflation has decreased. On the other hand, the growth of Covid-19 casualties could increase economic uncertainty and inflation. Furthermore, Covid-19 vaccinations have positive and significant effects on the inflation rate in OECD countries. Accordingly, policymakers are advised to include increasing vaccine injections, especially booster doses, to increase economic activity and prosperity in OECD and world economies. Furthermore, Covid-19 showed the necessity of preparing the world against infectious diseases in the future.
Keywords
Main Subjects
Article Title [Persian]
کووید-19 و نرخ تورم: مطالعه کشورهای سازمان همکاری و توسعه اقتصادی (OECD)
Authors [Persian]
- رامین امانی
- سامان قادری
- خالد احمدزاده
دانشکده علوم انسانی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه کردستان، سنندج، ایران
Abstract [Persian]
کووید-19 از سال 2019 بر اقتصاد جهان تأثیر گذاشته است. همه‌گیری ویروس کرونا یکی از جدی‌ترین و خطرناک‌ترین معضلاتی است که بشریت در قرن اخیر با آن مواجه بوده است؛ بنابراین، هدف این مقاله بررسی تأثیر کووید-19 بر نرخ تورم در 36 کشور عضو OECD است. برای دستیابی به این هدف از داده‌های ماهانه کووید-19 و نرخ تورم از فوریه 2019 تا آگوست 2021 و روش رگرسیون پانل چندکی استفاده شده است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که موارد جدید کووید-19 باعث کاهش نرخ تورم در همه چندک‌ها می‌شود که به این معنی است که با افزایش تعداد موارد کووید-19، فعالیت‌های اقتصادی به دلیل محدودیت‌های تجاری کاهش می‌یابد. علاوه بر این، مرگ‌ومیرهای جدید کووید-19 تأثیر دوگانه‌ای بر نرخ تورم در کشورهای OECD دارد. با افزایش آمار مرگ‌ومیر ناشی از کووید-19، محدودیت‌های کسب‌وکار افزایش‌یافته و اقتصاد وارد رکود شده و تورم کاهش‌یافته است. از سوی دیگر، رشد تلفات کووید-19 می‌تواند نااطمینانی اقتصادی و تورم را افزایش دهد. علاوه بر این، واکسیناسیون کووید-19 اثرات مثبت و قابل‌توجهی بر نرخ تورم در کشورهای OECD دارد. براین‌اساس، به سیاست‌گذاران توصیه می‌شود برای افزایش فعالیت‌های اقتصادی و افزایش رونق در اقتصاد این کشورها، افزایش تزریق واکسن به‌ویژه دوزهای تقویت‌کننده را در نظر بگیرند. از طرف دیگر، کووید-19 ضرورت آمادگی جهان در برابر بیماری های واگیر در آینده را نشان داد.
Keywords [Persian]
- کووید-19
- نرخ تورم
- کشورهای OECD
- رگرسیون چندکی
Economic uncertainty before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Journal
of Public Economics; 191:104274.
Andersen, A.L., Hansen, E.T., Johannesen, N., Sheridan, A. (2020). Responses to
the COVID-19 crises: Evidence from bank account transaction data. CEBI
Working Paper Series; 18/20. Available from:
Amani, R., et al., Iranian Journal of Economic Studies, 11(1) 2022, 85-102 101
https://www.econ.ku.dk/cebi/publikationer/working-papers/CEBI_WP_18-
20_rev.pdf.
Apergis, E., Apergis, N. (2020). Inflation expectations, volatility and COVID-19:
Evidence from the US inflation swap rates. Applied Economics Letters;
[Epub ahead of print]. DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2020.1813245.
Armantire, O., Kosar, G., Pomerantz, R., Skandalis, D., Smith, K., Topa, G.
(2020). Inflation expectations in times of COVID-19. Federal Reserve Bank
of New York, Liberty Street Economics. Available from:
https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2020/05/inflationexpectations-in-times-of-covid-19.html.
Baker, S. R., Farrokhnia, R. A., Meyer, S., Pagel, M., Yannelis, C. (2020). How
does household spending respond to an epidemic? Consumption during the
2020 COVID-19 Pandemic. NBER Working Papers; 26949. DOI:
10.3386/w26949.
Bameni Moghadam, M., Khoshgooyan Fard, A. (2005). The Application of the
Quantile Regression in Finding the Distribution of Expected Welfare Social
Welfare, 4(15), 43-56.
Blundell, R., Griffith, R., Levell, P., O’Connell, M. (2020). Could COVID-19
infect the consumer price index? Fiscal Studies; 41(2):357-61.
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System: “Why Does the Federal
Reserve Aim for 2 Percent Inflation Over the Longer Run?” Accessed 10
November 2021.
Bresser-Pereira, L. C. (2020). Financing COVID-19, inflation and fiscal
constraint. Forum for Social Economics; 49(3):241-56.
Cavallo, A. (2020). Inflation with COVID-19 consumption baskets. NBER
Working Paper Series; 27352. DOI: 10.3386/w27352.
Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., Weber, M. (2020). The cost of the COVID-19
crisis: lockdowns, macroeconomic expectations, and consumer spending.
NBER Working Papers; 27141. DOI: 10.3386/w27141.
Congressional Research Service: “Introduction to U.S. Economy: Inflation.”
Accessed 10 November 2021.
Damette, O., Delacote, P. (2012). On the economic factors of deforestation: What
can we learn from quantile analysis? Economic Modelling, 29(6), 2427-
2434.
Dunn, A. C., Hood, K. K., Driessen, A. (2020). Measuring the effects of the
COVID-19 pandemic on consumer spending using card transaction data.
BETA Working Paper Series; 5. Available from: https://www.
bea.gov/system/files/papers/BEA-WP2020-5_0.pdf.
Ebrahimy, E., Igan, D., Peria, M. (2020). The impact of Covid-19 on inflation:
Potential drivers and dynamics. IMF Special Notes Series on Covid-19:1-14.
Eichenbaum, M. S., Rebelo, S., Trabandt, M. (2020). The macroeconomics of
epidemics. NBER Working Papers; 26882. DOI: 10.3386/w26882.
Imf.org [Internet]: International Monetary Fund. The great lockdown: Worst
economic downturn since the great depression (2020). Available from:
102 Amani, R., et al., Iranian Journal of Economic Studies, 11(1) 2022, 85-102
https://blogs.imf.org/2020/04/14/the-great-lockdown-worst-economicdownturn-since-the-great-depression/.
Jaravel, X., O'Connell, M. (2020). Inflation spike and falling product variety
during the Great Lockdown. Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) Working
Papers; W20/17. DOI: 10.1920/wp.ifs.2020.1720.
Keshavarz, H., & Parsa, H. (2019). The Impacts of Monetary Policy on
Macroeconomic Variables Assuming the Collateral Constraint. Iranian
Journal of Economic Studies, 8(1), 69-90.
https://doi.org/10.22099/ijes.2019.31442.1508
Kiaee, H. (2017). Inflation Behavior in Top Sukuk Issuing Countries: Using a
Bayesian Log-linear Model. Iranian Journal of Economic Studies, 6(1), 29-
46. https://doi.org/10.22099/ijes.2017.23169.1284
Koenker, R. (2004). Quantile regression for longitudinal data. Journal of
Multivariate Analysis, 91(1), 74-89
Koenker, R., Bassett Jr, G. (1978). Regression quantiles. Econometrica: Journal
of the Econometric Society, 33-50.
Mohammadzadeh Asl, N., Seifi Pour, R., Mehrabian, A. (2017). The Impact of
the Return of Research and Development on Economic Growth (Using
Regression Quintiles Model). Scientific Journal Management System, 8(15),
1-14.
Pellegrino, G., Ravenna, F., Züllig, G. (2020). The cost of coronavirus
uncertainty: The high returns to clear policy plans. The Australian Economic
Review; 53(3):397-401.
Powell, J. L. (1984). Least absolute deviations estimation for the censored
regression model. Journal of Econometrics, 25(3), 303-325.
Seiler, P. (2020). Weighting bias and inflation in the time of COVID-19: Evidence
from Swiss transaction data. Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics;
156:13.
Sharif, A., Aloui, A., Yarovaya, L. (2020). COVID-19 pandemic, oil prices, stock
market, geopolitical risk, and policy uncertainty nexus in the US economy:
Fresh evidence from the wavelet-based approach. International Review of
Financial Analysis; 70:101496.
United States Congress, Joint Economic Committee: “The Economics of Inflation
and the Risks of Ballooning Government Spending.” Accessed 10 November
2021.
Verikios, G. (2020). The dynamic effects of infectious disease outbreaks: the case
of pandemic influenza and human coronavirus. Socio Econ Plann Sci.
71:100898. DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2020. 100898
)