Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
Faculty of Economics and Social Science, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran.
Abstract
Foreign direct investment (FDI) is considered as an inseparable features of an open and influential global economic system and a key factor for growth and development between countries. Due to having huge amount of oil and gas resources as well as relatively large markets, Iran has a great potential for attracting FDI far more than its performance. However, various sanctions imposed on the country in recent years has led to a decrease in FDI by creating a hostile psychological environment and high risk for economic activities. In this paper, we are going to examine the widespread impacts of economic sanctions imposed by the US on the FDI of Iran between 1980 and 2020 through a model called the synthetic control (SCM). Through SCM we estimate the difference in FDI between the treated country (Iran) and the counterfactual (Synthetic Iran). The results show that the sanctions leads to almost 12 billion $ reduction in the FDI compared to the no-sanctions situation. Following the escalation of sanctions under the Trump administration and the withdrawal of the US from the JCPOA, the adverse effects of declining FDI peaked at 20 billion $ in 2020.The placebo tests also show that the there are statistical significance in findings (at the 10%
Keywords
Main Subjects
Article Title [Persian]
بررسی تاثیر تحریمهای اقتصادی بر سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی در ایران با استفاده از روش کنترل مصنوعی
Authors [Persian]
- فرانک میرعالی
- سعید عیسی زاده
- سیداحسان حسینی دوست
دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه بوعلی سینا، همدان، ایران.
Abstract [Persian]
سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی (FDI) به عنوان بخش جدایی‌ناپذیر از یک نظام اقتصادی باز و موثر بین المللی و عاملی کلیدی برای رشد و توسعه بین کشورها محسوب می‌شود. ایران به دلیل برخورداری از منابع عظیم نفت و گاز و همچنین بازارهای نسبتاً بزرگ، پتانسیل بالایی برای جذب سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی به مراتب بیشتر از عملکرد خود دارد. این در حالی است که اعمال تحریمهای مختلف بر کشور در سال‌های اخیر با ایجاد فضای روانی خصمانه و ریسک بالای فعالیتهای اقتصادی منجر به کاهش سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی شده است.
در این مقاله قصد داریم با استفاده از روش کنترل ترکیبی (SCM) به بررسی تاثیرات گسترده تحریمهای اقتصادی اعمال شده توسط ایالات متحده بر FDI ایران بین سال‌های 1980 تا 2020 بپردازیم. ما از طریق SCM تفاوت FDI را بین کشور تحت درمان (ایران) و ترکیبی (ایران ترکیبی) تخمین می‌زنیم.
نتایج نشان می‌دهد که تحریم‌ها منجر به کاهش تقریبا 12 میلیارد دلاری سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی در مقایسه با وضعیت بدون تحریم شده است. به دنبال تشدید تحریم‌ها در دولت ترامپ و خروج ایالات متحده از برجام، اثرات منفی کاهشFDI به اوج خود یعنی 20 میلیارد دلار در سال 2020 رسیده است. علاوه بر این، آزمونهای دارونما نشان می‌دهند که نتایج از نظر آماری در سطح 10٪ معنادار هستند.
Keywords [Persian]
- تحریمهای اقتصادی
- FDI
- روش کنترل ترکیبی
- استخر اهداکننده
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