Investigating the dynamic causality between Budget Deficit (BD) and Current Account Deficit (CAD) in the framework of the Mendel-Fleming model in IRAN: a Bootstrap Rolling Window Approach

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Department of Economics, Ilam University, Ilam. Iran

2 Department of Economics, Uremia University, Uremia, Iran

Abstract

Iran's economy has consistently experienced a rise in the budget deficit (BD), which has hindered the country's capacity to see overall economic growth. However, it also constantly deals with uncertainty in the international market. Careful management of the link between these two forms of deficits is necessary to attain stability and sustainable economic growth. This research has investigated the Dynamic causal relationship between double Current Account Deficits (CAD) and Iran's budget deficit (BD) from 1965 to 2018 using the rolling window (bootstrap) method. Every era of causality is examined, taking into account the structural gaps. The paper's findings support the Mundell-Fleming model by demonstrating that, between 1981 and 1987, the budget deficit (BD) positively impacted the current account deficit. However, between 1975 and 1977, 1998 and 1999, and 2005 and 2013, the country's lack of organized or poorly organized financial markets resulted in the abandonment of the current account deficit, which had a detrimental effect on the country's budget deficit (BD). Furthermore, the findings indicate that the government's budget deficit (BD) was positively and significantly impacted by the Current Account Deficit (CAD) from 1991 to 1992, but negatively and significantly impacted from 1975 to 1976, 1981 to 1985, 1989 to 1970, 2005 to 2006, and 2009 to 2011. Overall, the findings suggest that there is dynamic causation between the twin budget-current account deficits, albeit in distinct directions. This suggests that the Iranian government is unable to address the imbalance in its external sector through budget policy.

Keywords

Main Subjects

Article Title [Persian]

بررسی علیت پویا بین کسری بودجه (BD) و کسری حساب جاری (CAD) در چارچوب مدل مندل-فلمینگ در ایران: رویکرد پنجره رولینگ بوت استرپ

Authors [Persian]

  • حشمت اله عسگری 1
  • علی مریدیان 2
1 گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه ایلام، ایلام. ایران
2 گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران
Abstract [Persian]

اقتصاد ایران همواره با افزایش دائمی در کسری بودجه مواجه بوده است که این مساله مانع توانایی این اقتصاد برای دستیابی به رشد اقتصادی فراگیر شده و از سوی دیگر همواره با بی‌ثباتی در بخش خارجی(کسری تراز تجاری) روبرو است. برای تحقق ثبات در اقتصاد و رشد اقتصادی پایدار و در عین‌حال فراگیر، این دو کسری، یعنی  کسری بودجه و کسری تجاری، باید با دقت کنترل شوند. در این مقاله با کمک رویکرد پنجره غلتان راه‌انداز(بوت استرپ)، به تحلیل رابطه علیت پویا بین کسری بودجه و کسری تجاری در ایران طی سالهای 1397-1344 پرداخته شده است.  با در نظر گرفتن شکاف‌های ساختاری، منشأ و خاتمه هر دوره علیت بررسی می­گردد. نتایج مقاله نشان می‌دهد که طی سال­های 1360-1366  کسری بودجه تأثیر مثبتی بر کسری تجاری داشته است که با نتایج مدل موندل-فلمینگ مطابقت دارد، در حالی‌ که طی دوره­های 1354-1356 و 1377-1378 و 1384-1392 به دلیل کنار گذاشتن کسری تجاری تأثیر منفی داشت که این امر به دلیل نبود بازارهای مالی سازمان یافته یا کمتر سازمان یافته در کشور برای تامین مالی بودجه دولت می­باشد.  همچنین نتایج نشان می‌دهد که کسری تجاری در دوره 1370-1371 تأثیر مثبت و معنادار و در دوره­های 1355-1354، 1364-1360، 1369-1368، 1385- 1384 و 1390-1388 تاثیر منفی و معنی­داری بر کسری بودجه دولت گذاشته است. این بدان معنی است که دولت ایران نمی‌تواند از سیاست مالی برای تنظیم عدم تعادل بخش خارجی خود استفاده کند.

Keywords [Persian]

  • کسری مالی
  • کسری تجارت
  • رویکرد پنجره غلتان

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History

  • Receive Date: 22 February 2023
  • Revise Date: 02 April 2024
  • Accept Date: 19 May 2024

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