Investigating the Impact of Qard al-Hasna (Interest-Free Loan) Facilities on the Misery Index in Iran: An ARDL Approach

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

Department of Economics , Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran.

Abstract

Rising inflation coupled with unemployment rates (the misery index) can lead to many economic and social costs. On the other hand, considering the emphasis of the Islamic religion on reviving the tradition of Qard Hasanah (benevolent loan) and the impact of these facilities on macroeconomic variables, the key goal of this paper is to investigate the impact of Qard al-Hasna (interest-free loan) facilities on the misery index in Iran, utilizing data from 1984 to 2021. The misery index serves as a comprehensive measure of economic well-being, incorporating indicators of inflation and unemployment. Employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the research analyzes both short-term and long-term relationships between the share of Qard al-Hasna facilities and the misery index. The findings reveal that a one-unit increase in the share of these facilities results in a 0.31% decrease in the misery index in the short term and a 0.52% decrease in the long term. Additionally, the error correction model indicates that 60% of short-term fluctuations adjust toward long-term equilibrium. The study also highlights the negative impact of government spending on the misery index and the positive effect of the real exchange rate. Based on these results, the paper recommends enhancing the monitoring of banking performance in allocating Qard al-Hasna facilities, directing government spending toward development projects, and managing exchange rate policies to mitigate adverse economic effects. This research underscores the significance of Qard al-Hasna facilities as a viable tool for alleviating poverty and improving economic conditions in Iran.

Keywords

Main Subjects

Article Title [Persian]

بررسی تأثیر تسهیلات قرض‌الحسنه بر شاخص فلاکت در ایران: یک رویکرد ARDL

Authors [Persian]

  • مهدی خوش اخلاق
  • مینو امینی میلانی
  • اصغر عبدالحسنی هستیانی
گروه علمی اقتصاد، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران.
Abstract [Persian]

افزایش نرخ تورم به همراه نرخ بیکاری (شاخص فلاکت) می‌تواند منجر به هزینه‌های اقتصادی و اجتماعی زیادی شود. از سوی دیگر، با توجه به تأکید دین اسلام بر احیای سنت قرض‌الحسنه و تأثیر این تسهیلات بر متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی، هدف اصلی این مقاله بررسی تأثیر تسهیلات قرض‌الحسنه بر شاخص فلاکت در ایران است و داده‌های سال‌های 1363 تا 1400 مورد استفاده قرار گرفته است. شاخص فلاکت به عنوان یک معیار جامع از رفاه اقتصادی، شامل شاخص‌های تورم و بیکاری است. با استفاده از مدل خودرگرسیون با وقفه توزیع شده (ARDL)، این تحقیق به تحلیل روابط کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت بین سهم تسهیلات قرض‌الحسنه و شاخص فلاکت پرداخته است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که افزایش یک واحد در سهم این تسهیلات منجر به کاهش ٪۰.۳۱ در شاخص فلاکت در کوتاه‌مدت و کاهش ٪۰.۵۲ در بلندمدت می‌شود. همچنین، مدل تصحیح خطا نشان می‌دهد که ٪۶۰ از نوسانات کوتاه‌مدت به سمت تعادل بلندمدت تنظیم می‌شود. این مطالعه همچنین تأثیر منفی هزینه‌های دولتی بر شاخص فلاکت و تأثیر مثبت نرخ ارز واقعی را برجسته می‌کند. بر اساس این نتایج، مقاله توصیه می‌کند که نظارت بر عملکرد بانک‌ها در تخصیص تسهیلات قرض‌الحسنه تقویت شود، هزینه‌های دولتی به سمت پروژه‌های توسعه‌ای هدایت گردد و سیاست‌های ارزی مدیریت شود تا اثرات منفی اقتصادی کاهش یابد. این تحقیق بر اهمیت تسهیلات قرض‌الحسنه به عنوان ابزاری مؤثر برای کاهش فقر و بهبود شرایط اقتصادی در ایران تأکید می‌کند.

Keywords [Persian]

  • قرض‌الحسنه
  • شاخص فلاکت
  • مدل ARDL
  • رفاه اقتصادی
  • هزینه‌های دولتی

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History

  • Receive Date: 14 January 2025
  • Revise Date: 24 March 2025
  • Accept Date: 31 March 2025

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