Pandemic and Progress: How COVID-19 Redefined the Economic Catch-Up Dynamics

Document Type : Research Paper

Author

Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Golestan University, Gorgan, Iran.

Abstract

This study examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic catch-up dynamics across 194 countries, segmented by income groups, using an economic catch-up index relative to the United States (USA) and G7 benchmarks. To examine the change in the path of economic catch-up, a test is performed to compare the difference between the mean catch-up index after COVID-19 and the mean catch-up index before COVID-19 for each country. By comparing pre-pandemic periods (2001–2019, 2010–2019, 2014–2019) with the post-pandemic phase (2020–2023), the analysis reveals heterogeneous trajectories shaped by income levels, structural resilience, and benchmark selection. A clustering approach identified six distinct clusters, highlighting divergent recovery patterns. Low-income countries experienced significant divergence from the USA post-pandemic but displayed minor divergence with the G7. Lower-middle-income countries showed mixed outcomes, with notable progress in countries like Vietnam and Bangladesh but persistent divergence in structurally weaker economies such as Angola and Haiti. Upper-middle-income countries exhibited relative stability, while high-income countries diverged sharply from the USA but converged with the G7. These findings highlight the asymmetric effects of global shocks on economic trajectories and underscore the importance of institutional quality, policy responses, and structural diversification in shaping recovery outcomes. Correlation analysis shows that, Governance factors like Control of Corruption and Regulatory Quality are vital for economic catch-up in low- and upper middle-income countries, while COVID-19 mortality rates significantly hinder lower middle-income nations. High-income countries face post-pandemic challenges despite strong institutions, with innovation playing a critical role in sustaining their alignment with advanced economies.

Keywords

Main Subjects

Article Title [Persian]

پاندمی و پیشرفت: چگونگی تغییر پویایی های اقتصادی پس از کووید-19

Author [Persian]

  • حسن دلیری
دانشکده علوم انسانی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه گلستان، گرگان، ایران.
Abstract [Persian]

این مطالعه تأثیر همه‌گیری کووید-19 را بر پویایی همپایی اقتصادی در 194 کشور، با استفاده از شاخص همپایی اقتصادی (با دو معیار پایه ایالات متحده و گروه کشورهای جی7 ) بررسی می‌کند. برای بررسی تغییر در مسیر همپایی اقتصادی، آزمون مقایسه تفاوت بین میانگین شاخص همپایی قبل و بعد از کووید-۱۹ برای تمامی کشورهای نمونه انجام شد. با مقایسه دوره‌های پیش از همه‌گیری (2001-2019، 2010-2019، 2014-2019 که به ترتیب مسیر کوتاه مدت، میان مدت و بلند مدت را نمایش می دهد) با مرحله پس از همه‌گیری (2020-2023)، نتایج این تحلیل، مسیرهای ناهمگنی را بین کشورهای مختلف نشان می‌دهد. علاوه براین با استفاده از روش خوشه‌بندی، شش خوشه مجزا شناسایی شدند که براساس آن، هر خوشه الگوهای همپایی متفاوتی را برای دوره قبل و بعد از همه گیری، نمایش می­دهند. تحلیل براساس گروههای درآمدی نیز نشان از آن دارد که، کشورهای کم درآمد واگرایی قابل توجهی از امریکا پس از همه گیری را تجربه کردند، اما واگرایی جزئی با جی7 داشتند. کشورهای با درآمد متوسط ​​پایین، نتایج متفاوتی را نشان دادند، با پیشرفت قابل توجه در کشورهایی مانند ویتنام و بنگلادش، اما واگرایی مداوم در اقتصادهای ساختاری ضعیف تر مانند آنگولا و هائیتی. کشورهای با درآمد متوسط ​​بالا، ثبات نسبی را نشان دادند، در حالی که کشورهای با درآمد بالا به شدت از ایالات متحده فاصله گرفتند اما با جی7 همگرا شدند. این یافته‌ها اثرات نامتقارن شوک‌های جهانی را بر مسیرهای پیشرفت اقتصادی برجسته می‌کنند و بر اهمیت کیفیت نهادی، پاسخ‌های سیاست‌گذاری و تنوع ساختاری در شکل‌دهی به نتایج تاکید می‌کنند. تجزیه و تحلیل همبستگی نشان می­دهد که عوامل حکمرانی مانند کنترل فساد و کیفیت نظارتی برای همپایی اقتصادی در کشورهای با درآمد پایین و متوسط ​​بالا اثرات حیاتی دارند. کشورهای با درآمد بالا علی رغم نهادهای قوی با چالش‌های پس از همه‌گیری مواجه هستند و نوآوری نقش مهمی در حفظ همپایی آنها با اقتصادهای پیشرفته دارد. توصیه‌های سیاستی شامل تقویت کیفیت نهادی، سرمایه‌گذاری هدفمند در زیرساخت‌های دیجیتال، و تقویت همکاری بین‌المللی برای کاهش شوک‌های نامتقارن است.

Keywords [Persian]

  • همپایی اقتصادی
  • همگرایی
  • کووید 19
  • شوک بیرونی
  • گروه های درآمدی

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History

  • Receive Date: 28 February 2025
  • Revise Date: 03 April 2025
  • Accept Date: 03 April 2025

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