The Impact of Remittances on Real Exchange Rates in Afghanistan: ARDL approach

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

Faculty of Economics, Management and Administrative Sciences, Semnan University, Semnan , Iran.

Abstract

Remittances play a crucial role in Afghanistan’s economy, providing a substantial portion of the national income each year. This phenomenon remains unexplored in the context of Afghanistan. Utilizing seasonal data from 2007 to 2021 and using Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) developed by Pesaran et al. (2001) looking at short-term and long-term co-integrations, this research attempts to find how remittances effect on real exchange rate (RER) in Afghanistan. Results reveal that remittances and real exchange rates have a negative but statistically significant relationship in the long run, leading to currency appreciation. While the empirical results demonstrate a positive and statistically significant relationship between the world interest rate (WIR) and real exchange rate (RER) nexus in the long-run, leading to depreciation in the Afghan currency. The relationship between GDP growth rate and RER nexus is negative but statistically significant, indicating that higher GDP growth strengthens the value of the Afghan currency in the long-run.

Keywords

Main Subjects

Article Title [Persian]

بررسی اثر رمیتانس برنرخ ارز حقیقی در کشور افغانستان با رویکرد ARDL

Authors [Persian]

  • ذبیح الله سعادت
  • رحمان سعادت
  • مجید مداح
دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و علوم اداری، دانشگاه سمنان، سمنان، ایران.
Abstract [Persian]

رمیتانس نقش حیاتی در اقتصاد افغانستان ایفا می کند و هرسال سهم قابل توجهی  درآمد ملی این کشور را تشکیل می دهد. با این حال، پدیده رمیتانس در افغانستان کمتر مورد بررسی علمی قرار گرفته است. در این پژوهش از داده‌های فصلی طی دوره ی  ۲۰۰۷ تا ۲۰۲۱، و از روش‌های خودتوضیحی با وقفه‌های توزیعی یا ARDL  پسران و همکاران، (2001)  برای بررسی هم‌جمعی کوتاه‌مدت و بلند‌مدت استفاده شده است. نتایج پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که رابطه بین رمیتانس و نرخ ارز حقیقی در بلندمدت منفی و از نظر آماری معنادار است، این امر منجر به افزایش ارزش پول افغانی در بلند مدت می‌شود. در مورد سایر متغیرهای کنترلی، نتایج تجربی حاکی از آن است که رابطه بین نرخ بهره جهانی WIR و نرخ ارز حقیقی RER  در هر دو بازه کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت مثبت و از نظر آماری معنادار است. همان‌طور که انتظار می‌رفت، افزایش نرخ بهره جهانی منجر به کاهش ارزش پول افغانی می‌شود. همچنین، رابطه بین رشد تولید ناخالص داخلی GDP و  نرخ ارز حقیقی RER  منفی یا غیرمستقیم و از نظر آماری معنادار است. این بدان معنا ست که رشد اقتصاد در بلندمدت باعث تقویت ارزش پول افغانی می‌شود.

Keywords [Persian]

  • رمیتانس
  • نرخ ارز حقیقی
  • افغانستان
  • ARDL

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History

  • Receive Date: 16 February 2025
  • Revise Date: 25 May 2025
  • Accept Date: 26 May 2025

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